Who Stays and Who Goes?

[tommy]

As a further example, Oscar at UK is a great rebounder and a good post scorer. But he’s a poor post and PNR defender, not a great shooter and not a great passer from the post. But he was POY last year and most teams would take a guy like that in the tournament. Bacot has a similar profile and would be welcomed by most teams.

There are a few exceptions, but most of the teams that had a traditional, back to the basket big as their primary go-to guy did not do very well this year. Bacot's UNC and Dickinson's Michigan didn't make the tournament. Edey's Purdue lost in the first round. Tschiebwe's Kentucky and Jackson-Davis' Indiana went out in the second round.

[Tyrese]He's shown up in no mocks in 2023, as far as I can Google. And as DBA has pointed out, the only 5-stars on no mocks who have left Duke after one year were Duval and Steward, who both went undrafted and have been mired in the G League for 4 and 2 years respectively. Not much of a precedent.

After his performance against Tennessee on Saturday, on the heels of his overall late season improvements, don't be surprised if Tyrese shows up in 2023 mocks that go up after the tournament. He was clearly our best player against Tennessee, and handled their physicality as well as anyone, and with one of the primary questions about him being his physique and his strength, his showing on Saturday opened some eyes, I'm sure.

I fail to understand how Filipowski being a better shooter and outside threat would be bad for Duke in any way. In fact, it would be great for Duke and for Filipowski. Really great.

Definitely. In fact, while some here talk about him needing to get stronger in order to appeal more to the league, the big issue for Kyle is really the outside shooting. His form looks really good, but he just didn't hit three-point shots at a very high rate this year. 28% in fact -- it was actually pretty terrible. If a guy is going to be drafted as a stretch 4 or stretch 5, the "stretch" is a big part of it, meaning you have to be able to knock down outside jumpshots. Kyle did not prove that this year at all. He'd still be drafted later in the first round, I believe, but there's a lot more trepidation about him based on the shooting than about anything else in his game.

I think the one thing that hurt us this year is our shooting and Lively not being much of an offensive weapon. I'd much rather have a 6'9 offensive guy who can play average defense then a 7'0 guy who plays great defense but can't score.

I don't know if I'd rather have that -- Dereck brought a LOT to the table this year on the defensive end and as a lob finisher -- but his offensive limitations were a glaring problem for him and the team against Tennessee. Tennessee completely backed away from him, just left their big man back in the lane and let Dereck be no factor. He can't/couldn't shoot a 15 shoot jumpshot, and they played drop coverage against screen/rolls and handoffs to prevent him rolling to the rim for dunks. They essentially turned it into a 4-on-5 game at the offensive end for us, which was smart. But the scouts saw that, undoubtedly. Dereck will be a first round draft pick based on his crazy shotblocking ability and his athleticism, plus the likelihood that he will get stronger with age, but he's not a stretch-anything right now, and that has to be a concern for any team drafting him. You can't play 4 on 5 on offense in the NBA.

Vernon Cary is a one and done that people forget but he was very similar to Flip in that he had a great Freshmen year in terms of production but his draft value actually went down from leaving HS to going pro.

I don't think Vernon was anything like Flip. Vernon was a bulky, power-based back-to-the basket offensive player almost exclusively, without much spring to his game. Kyle, although as stated above didn't hit very many 3's, can face up and shoot jumpshots including with some range, or at least the reasonable hope is that he can make them more consistently than he showed this year. That was never going to happen for Vernon -- he's much more limited in that way. Kyle can also put the ball on the floor and take it to the rim -- Vernon also didn't do that.

Mason Plumlee has played 10 years in the NBA without doing either of these things. There absolutely is room for a dude who can run the floor, rebound, block shots, is versatile on defense, and doesn’t have to have the ball in his hands to impact the game.

Oh, but Mason's offensive skillset far exceeds Dereck's, and it did coming out of college as well. Mason can get the ball in the post and make actual moves left or right, and score. He's always been a plus athlete, and done all those things you mention, but don't shortchange his offensive skillset. It's what differentiated him largely from Miles.

Should Dereck decide to go, he will be the highest drafted Duke player this year. Saturday does nothing to change that. Saturday says at least as much about Duke's guards as it does Dereck.

See above for my thoughts on what Saturday showed about Dereck. As far as the guards go, other than Tyrese (also, see above) our guard play really was problematic against Tennessee, I agree. We just didn't have the dynamic playmaking ability to deal with the aggressive defense (and I use that word charitably -- "illegal" would be more accurate) played by Tennessee. Tyrese should not be the #1 perimeter/slasher option. The guy we were counting on to be "that guy" this year was Dariq, and unfortunately he never was. He was a much better catch-and-shoot guy than anyone expected, but the playmaking, passing, and athletic driving game to break down defenders off the bounce never came. And it's exactly what we needed on Saturday.

[azzefkram]

I remember when Henry Coleman grew from 6'7" to 6'8" and eventually 6'9" before he stepped foot on campus.

He's still 6'7", but this board was convinced he grew a couple inches.

I've heard Flip go from 6'10" to 7'1" during a game.

[rhynelander]

I remember when Henry Coleman grew from 6'7" to 6'8" and eventually 6'9" before he stepped foot on campus.

He's still 6'7", but this board was convinced he grew a couple inches.

Personally, I find it hard to compare players using these "feet" and "inches"... Why can't we all agree to use the hands down best measurement system man has created. You know what I'm talking about... cinderblocks!

[proelitedota]

I remember when Henry Coleman grew from 6'7" to 6'8" and eventually 6'9" before he stepped foot on campus.

He's still 6'7", but this board was convinced he grew a couple inches.

He is 6'8 245 now. So he did grow an inch, just not at Duke lol.

[proelitedota]

I've heard Flip go from 6'10" to 7'1" during a game.

Flip was listed at 6'10 when he committed. Measured 7' at Duke. Adding an inch or two in senior year of HS is common for people this tall.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

He is 6'8 245 now. So he did grow an inch, just not at Duke lol.

Everything is bigger in Texas

[budwom]

I remember when Henry Coleman grew from 6'7" to 6'8" and eventually 6'9" before he stepped foot on campus.

He's still 6'7", but this board was convinced he grew a couple inches.

Josh Hairston reported that he had elongated from 6-7 up to 6-9 before settling back down to an alleged 6-8 or so.

[CDu]

Lively will be a mid-first round pick this year if he goes. The NBA largely doesn't do post-up play much anymore, as they realize it's an inefficient way to score points. So Lively's lack of ability to score in the post is irrelevant. The NBA also has much stricter rules on perimeter contact, so teams can't mug the ballhandler or the screener on pick-and-roll action. So a guy who can roll to the rim and finish lobs is more useful in the NBA than in college (where sometimes you get crap officiating). Lively will likely not be a relevant offensive threat for the next few years, but he has a clear path to starting anyway. Being 7'1" and able to defend guards means he can be a game-changing defensive presence that won't be exploited in the myriad of screen concepts used in the NBA. Teams can switch everything with him and not feel like they will get abused by doing so. That's a huge plus for him. And if he does develop the 3pt shot, look out. I don't think there is much of a chance at all that he stays.

Flip has tons of potential as an offensive player. There are real concerns about his defense, but he's a teenager so that comes with the territory. He's shown some proficiency with defending multiple positions, and he has shown a decent-looking shot (excellent FT shooter, hasn't translated to 3). At the worst, he becomes a stretch-5 capable of putting the ball on the floor, passing, and probably shooting 3s. I think he'll go in the 1st round for sure if he enters. I strongly suspect he'll enter, but of the 3 top-5 recruits he's the one I could most easily envision returning.

Whitehead has the most risk of the 3 top-5 recruits. He plays the most readily available position on the floor, and he hasn't shown elite athleticism or ballhandling ability (in fact his ballhandling has been pretty bad). I think he'll still go in the 1st round due to his high school pedigree, but there is a higher bust potential for him than for the other two. The 3pt shooting was shockingly good this year for a guy not previously known as a knockdown shooter. Hopefully that continues. If it does, he has legitimate 3-and-D potential at the least. But if the 3pt shot was at all fluky, it's a lot easier to see him flaming out. Not to say he can't succeed at the next level, just that there is more risk given his position. That said, because of the risk involved in returning, I don't think there's much chance he stays.

Proctor is a 6'5" PG who showed some real promise. He was undoubtedly slowed early by arriving to campus late and by having to adjust to a new continent and hemisphere. But as the season went on, his 3pt shot arrived, and he showed excellent ballhandling skills and tremendous defensive acumen. He's not a superlative athlete, which is really the only knock to his game that I see. I suspect he'd get drafted in the 2nd round if he chooses to go pro. I honestly have no strong opinion one way or the other as to the likelihood of his decision, although frequently Duke guys with potential 2nd round grades have gone pro. Maybe he'll be different, who knows?

Mitchell is the least likely to get drafted of the 5. He is a tweener positionally: ideally a PF in skill set, but with the size of an NBA SF. He's a coach's dream, doing tons of dirty work and avoiding doing anything he does poorly. But he doesn't have that clear skill that makes him a hot commodity in the draft. He's the type of guy who can grind out a solid role player career, but would either need to make a bigger collegiate impact or work his way to the NBA the hard way. I think there's a reasonable chance that he returns. Perhaps unfortunately, though, his return would provide the least marginal benefit of any of the 5, because we have 3 top-25 recruits coming in that can play his position. He'd start over Power for sure, but we'd get more "bang for the buck" by getting one of Flip or Proctor back.

I think there are only 3 guys for whom the decision may prove interesting: Proctor, Flip, and Mitchell. Gonna be an interesting next month or two waiting to see what those guys decide.

[rlp5714]

I’ve said it before but NBA is based on offensive skills more than defense. Whitehead will be the first drafted.

[tommy]

I’ve said it before but NBA is based on offensive skills more than defense. Whitehead will be the first drafted.

Maybe. We'll see. Just in the last two years, though, we have seen two top-3 draft picks who were drafted that highly primarily for their defensive prowess: James Wiseman and Evan Mobley.

[SkyBrickey]

It’s interesting to me how little NIL discussion there is on this thread. None of us have any idea how many dollars are available and how they are allocated across OAD freshmen, role players and - most relevant to this thread - potential star returnees who could also have an NBA option.

There are stories about big individual donors paying for players like Nigel Pack. There are the local restaurants and car dealerships and such that get in the game with smaller checks.

Duke has been very good to Nike over many years. And Nike has been very good to Duke. We hired the young exec away from Nike. Nike would seem to have a big interest in Duke continuing to be a flagship college basketball program. What size checks could they write to keep a Proctor, a Mitchell, a Flip or s Roach around next year? To me that’s the most interesting story behind the story. And it’s the reason why I’ll be a little surprised if we don’t get 2-3 of these guys back for next season.

Edit: I think Lively and Whitehead are gone. If one returns, then I would bet there’s a big NIL$ deal involved.

[DavidBenAkiva]

I’ve said it before but NBA is based on offensive skills more than defense. Whitehead will be the first drafted.

It's a case-by-case situation. Jeremy Sochan, former Baylor player, wasn't drafted because he was a big-time scorer. His stats last year were very similar to Mark Mitchell's this year - 9.2 pts/6.4 reb/1.8 ast but his shooting numbers were horrid. He shot less than 30% from 3 and less than 60% from the FT line. He was the 9th pick in the NBA draft, mostly driven by his defensive versatility and the belief that he would eventually figure out how to shoot. He hasn't figured out the jump shot yet, but his FT rate is up to a healthier 70% in the NBA this year.

[Billy Dat]

Here's Sam Vecenie's latest Game Theory podcast. He and Adam Spinella (@TheBoxandOne_) start talking about Duke v Tennessee at the 7:07 mark. The game discussion is interesting/depressing, but they spend a lot of time talking about the NBA prospects of our team.

https://youtu.be/cYRV-76oeSs

It’s interesting to me how little NIL discussion there is on this thread. None of us have any idea how many dollars are available and how they are allocated across OAD freshmen, role players and - most relevant to this thread - potential star returnees who could also have an NBA option.
There are stories about big individual donors paying for players like Nigel Pack. There are the local restaurants and car dealerships and such that get in the game with smaller checks.
Duke has been very good to Nike over many years. And Nike has been very good to Duke. We hired the young exec away from Nike. Nike would seem to have a big interest in Duke continuing to be a flagship college basketball program. What size checks could they write to keep a Proctor, a Mitchell, a Flip or s Roach around next year? To me that’s the most interesting story behind the story. And it’s the reason why I’ll be a little surprised if we don’t get 2-3 of these guys back for next season.
Edit: I think Lively and Whitehead are gone. If one returns, then I would bet there’s a big NIL$ deal involved.

I think this is an enormous first test of Duke's ability to use NIL to keep players. Rachel Baker was hired for a lot of reasons, but this is a big one (also to use NIL to recruit players, but I guess convincing your players to stay is also recruiting).

Just from watching Duke Blue Planet videos, we know that Dariq and Flip has some kind of clothing NIL (Cuts Clothing - https://www.nildealnow.com/duke-dari...cuts-clothing/).

We know Dariq had the Pringles March Mustache deal.
https://www.on3.com/nil/news/pringle...n-vander-plas/

We know Flip had representation before he even got to Duke
https://www.on3.com/nil/news/no-1-ra...-excel-sports/

Anyway, I think you are on the $ about NIL being central to these decisions. If Jon wants to steer the program toward multi-year player continuity, hopefully the NIL deals are flowing.

[BigZ]

We are now at the point of hoping guys grow, either this is desperate or we are out of things to discuss lol

[budwom]

We are now at the point of hoping guys grow, either this is desperate or we are out of things to discuss lol

it's all pointless anyway. We have zero control, and who knows what a 19 year old kid wants to do...?

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

it's all pointless anyway. We have zero control, and who knows what a 19 year old kid wants to do...?

Especially a 19 year old man who is weighing the possibilities of lots of money - regardless of how realistic those possibilities are.

Would be interesting to do some sort of study of players who were OAD, to see what percentage would admit to wishing they made a different decision.

[KKDL19]

I truly think that for the players who need to provide for their families and/or are for fire 1st round draft selections, then it's kind of a no brainer that they should leave. I know it sucks for us as fans but how many of us would turn down millions of dollars to help both our families and ourselves out. I also think that in some cases, families don't necessarily need the "money" and those players have a harder decision to make.

Lively- I feel that he should go for all of the right reasons. He would be helping his mom and their family journey through her battles with illness. He's a great young person and I would support him leaving.
Whitehead- Spent 5 years at MVA and has suffered though some injuries. Not sure how much more he can get out of another year of college. His body is pro ready and he just needs to have a healthy year.
Roach- If he completed his degree in 3 years and is set to graduate, then I wish him well. We all forget that he was a top rated player in his class prior to his ACL injury and to on a OAD type trajectory. So, if he is in a place to leave and follow his dreams, go for it.

Flip- Most of us knew he was one of the biggest risers in the class and with his skills set body, his game is NBA made. If he is a top 10-20 pick, he should go. I could see him wanting to return for there is unfinished business to achieve as far as NCAAs but as far as accomplishments, not much more he can do as a Soph unless he would like to reach All-American status or ACC POY.
Proctor- He reclassed to come to Duke early for a reason... so I feel he is motivated to pursue his NBA dream. Now, he could want to show he is more consistent in his game and his ability to shoot the ball.
Mitchell-He proved he could do it all. He was one of the best percentage 3pt shooters on the team this year. he could return but with the roster Duke is bringing in, does he fit? He could but will he be happy with his role?

Blakes- He came to Duke knowing he was a 4 year player. He has exceeded many expectations so far and could continue to develop within the program. However, he might want to have more a chance to play so this is a wait and see.
Schutt- Honestly have no feel for this one.
Reeves- He came to Duke the expectation to red shirt and that changed. He needs time to develop and he should be able to be a contributor.

[proelitedota]

Houston, Uconn, Texas, Arkansas, Florida Atlantic, MSU, and Miami all have starting centers 6'9 or shorter. If Sean Stewart can play in the post, he should be fine as a 5 in college.

We had Uconn 2011, Villanova 2018, UVA 2019 all win titles with centers 6'9 in height.

A center in college needs to rebound, defend, and score in that order. TBH, Lively was only ok in rebounding for the year.

I think we'll be more than fine with a rotation of Sean, Ryan Young, and Christian Reeves. People forget that 2007-2009, 2014, 2017 and to some extent 2019 were all years we had less depth and/or talent at the 5.

[jaywilliams22]

Houston, Uconn, Texas, Arkansas, Florida Atlantic, MSU, and Miami all have starting centers 6'9 or shorter. If Sean Stewart can play in the post, he should be fine as a 5 in college.

We had Uconn 2011, Villanova 2018, UVA 2019 all win titles with centers 6'9 in height.

A center in college needs to rebound, defend, and score in that order. TBH, Lively was only ok in rebounding for the year.

I think we'll be more than fine with a rotation of Sean, Ryan Young, and Christian Reeves.

I found this tweet interesting, which backs up the case folks are making about not needing an elite big man in March.

https://twitter.com/KyleTucker_ATH/s...385378819?s=20

Zach Edey - out first round
Armando Bacot - didn't make NCAAs
Oscar Tshiebwe - out second round
Hunter Dickinson - NIT
Trayce Jackson-Davis - out second round

All of them first, second, or third team preseason all americans.

[proelitedota]

I found this tweet interesting, which backs up the case folks are making about not needing an elite big man in March.

https://twitter.com/KyleTucker_ATH/s...385378819?s=20

Zach Edey - out first round
Armando Bacot - didn't make NCAAs
Oscar Tshiebwe - out second round
Hunter Dickinson - NIT
Trayce Jackson-Davis - out second round

All of them first, second, or third team preseason all americans.

Exactly, today's game is all about the guards.