Investment Thread

[Jeffrey]

Wasn't it J.P. Morgan or John Rockefeller who said that he knew to sell his stocks when he got "hot tips" from the shoe shine guys?

Wasn’t that the other way around?

[OldPhiKap]

Wasn’t that the other way around?

It was Joe Kennedy:

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-...ubbles-2017-10

Like for virtually anyone invested in the stock market, the 1920s were good to Joseph Kennedy Sr. How could they not be, all you had to do was buy all the stock you could and watch it go up.

After having made a bundle owning stocks in the roaring bull market of the 1920’s, Joe Kennedy Sr. found himself needing to get his shoes polished up.

While sitting in the shoeshine chair, Kennedy Sr. was alarmed to have the shoeshine boy gift him with several tips on which stocks he should own — yes, a shoeshine boy playing the stock market.

This unsolicited advice resulted in a life-changing moment for Kennedy Sr. who promptly went back to his office and started unloading his stock portfolio.

In fact, he didn’t just get out of the market, he aggressively shorted it — and got filthy rich because of it during the epic crash that soon followed.

They don’t ring bells at the top, but apparently when shoeshine boys start giving stock advice it is time to head for the exits.

[Jeffrey]

Wasn't it J.P. Morgan or John Rockefeller who said that he knew to sell his stocks when he got "hot tips" from the shoe shine guys?

I tell the story the other way around, because when the big money finally shares insight with the small money, it’s usually time to do the opposite. It's a shame those boys couldn't be more copacetic.

[OldPhiKap]

I tell the story the other way around, because when the big money finally shares insight with the small money, it’s usually time to do the opposite. It's a shame those boys couldn't be more copacetic.

These are the horns of the dilemma
What truth this proof against all lies?
When sacred fails before profane
The wisest man is deemed insane
Even the purest of romantics compromise. . . .

[duketaylor]

Wasn’t that the other way around?

I could've sworn it was Judge Smails!!

[OldPhiKap]

I could've sworn it was Judge Smails!!

You’ll get nothing — and like it!!

[duketaylor]

You’ll get nothing — and like it!!

"The club slipped."

"I noticed the grips were worn. It's my fault."

[OldPhiKap]

"The club slipped."

"I noticed the grips were worn. It's my fault."

“I sent men younger than you to the gas chamber! Thought it would do them some good.”

[duketaylor]

"Biggest waste of real estate: Cemeteries and golf courses."

[Jeffrey]

These are the horns of the dilemma
What truth this proof against all lies?
When sacred fails before profane
The wisest man is deemed insane
Even the purest of romantics compromise. . . .

And the rich man in his summer home
Singing just leave well enough alone
But his pants are down, his cover's blown.

[OldPhiKap]

"Biggest waste of real estate: Cemeteries and golf courses."

I own two lumberyards. I’m not quite sure where they are.

[Jeffrey]

"Biggest waste of real estate: Cemeteries and golf courses."

Should we combine them and use the ash for traps?

[J4Kop99]

“I sent men younger than you to the gas chamber! Thought it would do them some good.”

"I've sentenced boys younger than you to the gas chamber. Didn't want to do it. I felt I owed it to them."

such a classic line

[YmoBeThere]

Recently the airlines:

Two Major Airlines Have Announced Massive Layoffs

American Airlines and Delta Air Lines told their respective employees that the companies plan for massive layoffs in October. American Airlines will downsize 19,000 jobs and Delta plans to lay off nearly 2,000 pilots.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkel.../#4a98aaa0235f

And today gaming and lodging:

MGM Resorts International said Friday it is sending separation letters to 18,000 U.S. employees who were furloughed during the coronavirus pandemic, making their job cuts permanent for now.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/08/28/...employees.html

This is nearly 500 people, just a few minutes from my house:

Hundreds of San Antonio Marriott workers to be laid off

https://www.expressnews.com/business...s-15519766.php

[JNort]

Recently the airlines:

Two Major Airlines Have Announced Massive Layoffs

American Airlines and Delta Air Lines told their respective employees that the companies plan for massive layoffs in October. American Airlines will downsize 19,000 jobs and Delta plans to lay off nearly 2,000 pilots.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkel.../#4a98aaa0235f

And today gaming and lodging:

MGM Resorts International said Friday it is sending separation letters to 18,000 U.S. employees who were furloughed during the coronavirus pandemic, making their job cuts permanent for now.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/08/28/...employees.html

This is nearly 500 people, just a few minutes from my house:

Hundreds of San Antonio Marriott workers to be laid off

https://www.expressnews.com/business...s-15519766.php

Michelin aircraft tire manufacturing is also letting go around 20% of its people. They dropped all part time employees and contractors a couple months back already.

[cspan37421]

Some interesting changes afoot for Vanguard Prime Money Market ... they're cutting way back on risk, going heavy into US government-backed stuff, to the point that there won't be much distinction (maybe maturity) between Prime and Federal MM. Apparently they used to have a fair bit of Yankee stuff early this year and back into last. This has been cut sharply and there will be a conversion in late September, awkwardly calling the new fund "Cash Reserves Federal Money Market Fund."

While I'm mostly a Boglehead myself, I do find this a very interesting development, perhaps revealing, expectations-wise. Though it could also be a reaction to existing conditions, too.

[Jeffrey]

Some interesting changes afoot for Vanguard Prime Money Market ... they're cutting way back on risk, going heavy into US government-backed stuff, to the point that there won't be much distinction (maybe maturity) between Prime and Federal MM. Apparently they used to have a fair bit of Yankee stuff early this year and back into last. This has been cut sharply and there will be a conversion in late September, awkwardly calling the new fund "Cash Reserves Federal Money Market Fund."

While I'm mostly a Boglehead myself, I do find this a very interesting development, perhaps revealing, expectations-wise. Though it could also be a reaction to existing conditions, too.

IMO, add another key revision and it’s great for Vanguard PMM customers. Vanguard substantially decreased PMM risk and expenses (thus increasing returns) simultaneously!

Big picture... it makes it very hard for Vanguard’s key competitors to introduce negative rates!

[Bluedog]

Some interesting changes afoot for Vanguard Prime Money Market ... they're cutting way back on risk, going heavy into US government-backed stuff, to the point that there won't be much distinction (maybe maturity) between Prime and Federal MM. Apparently they used to have a fair bit of Yankee stuff early this year and back into last. This has been cut sharply and there will be a conversion in late September, awkwardly calling the new fund "Cash Reserves Federal Money Market Fund."

While I'm mostly a Boglehead myself, I do find this a very interesting development, perhaps revealing, expectations-wise. Though it could also be a reaction to existing conditions, too.

IMO, add another key revision and it’s great for Vanguard PMM customers. Vanguard substantially decreased PMM risk and expenses (thus increasing returns) simultaneously!

Big picture... it makes it very hard for Vanguard’s key competitors to introduce negative rates!

I saw that too and think it's a good move by Vanguard for its investors but simply gives people another place to get basically 0% returns (with reduced risk). Suffice it to say, I'm not putting my money there because the return is pathetic in this ultra low interest rate environment.

My big takeaway is that Vanguard thinks there is a possibility of a major liquidity crisis on the horizon and thus wanted to protect investors in Prime given the yield was already puny, so might as well choose the safest cash equivalents possible and not be subject to that risk given the no difference in return. Even if just from a reputational perspective.

[Jeffrey]

My big takeaway is that Vanguard thinks there is a possibility of a major liquidity crisis on the horizon and thus wanted to protect investors in Prime given the yield was already puny, so might as well choose the safest cash equivalents possible and not be subject to that risk given the no difference in return. Even if just from a reputational perspective.

I wasn’t in the room where it happens, but, if I was, then I’d currently be more concerned about breaking the buck than liquidity risk. I’m currently surrounded by liquidity and focused on many other risks.

[Bob Green]

S&P 500 up 1.54% today improving to 10.84% year to date.