I can't imagine how...with the number of bowls, doesn't almost half of the FBS get into a game? It is way easier to get to a bowl now than it was in the not-so-distant past.
I thought Duke played a tough game. GT team remained a bit hyped by the firing of their HC and took it upon themselves to win one. Next week their O and D line may not even show up. Duke was the in the opposite emotional state...just won a regular season ACC game for the first time in a while and probably had a tough time concentrating getting ready throughout the week. Those emotions an experienced winning HC will figure out how to manage better; let's hope he gets there.
Enjoyed watching them fight and hope to see some precision return this week. Unfortunately, I'd expect some aggressive defense this weekend, given the success it had on Saturday.
The current Sagarin ratings predict that Duke has about an 85% chance of winning 6 or more games.
Based on the current ratings, Duke should be favored (about a 70% chance of winning) vs BC and Virginia Tech and should be an underdog (30-40% chance of winning) vs UNC, Miami, Pitt, and Wake. I am personally less optimistic that Duke pulls off an upset vs UNC, Miami, Pitt or Wake, but Sagarin gives Duke about an 80% chance of winning at least one of these four games.
If Duke had managed to beat GT in OT, Sagarin would have given Duke a 98% chance of getting to 6 wins.
i was working and unable to watch the game...keeping up with it on the sports app...
quit looking with about 5 mins left.... ugh....that end had to be brutal
"One POSSIBLE future. From your point of view... I don't know tech stuff.".... Kyle Reese
In the end, Sagarin is even more of a SWAG than basketball season dork polls. The dataset is so small, and the difference in team quality so many of those data points that it's nigh impossible to get a really useful model. (this is before the natural variance of the game itself).
I'd venture we've a losing record against our sagarin prediction over the past few years in the last 8 games of the season.
1200. DDMF.
You both make excellent points about the limitations of Sagarin's method, especially at this time of the year. Case in point: Sagarin's "predictor" rating would suggest that Duke would be a 3 point underdog vs UNC. In reality, it appears that Duke is a 7 point underdog at the moment.
If Duke is really 4 points "worse" than its current Sagarin rating suggests, Duke would still have about a 75% chance of winning 6 or more games. That still seems a bit optimistic to me. A pessimistic view of Duke's chances (30% vs UNC, 50% vs BC/Va Tech, 20% vs Miami/Pitt, and 10% vs Wake) still gives Duke a 60% chance of reaching 6 wins.
Of course, the best way to end this discussion would be for Duke to beat UNC this weekend!
Or you can look at the Massey Composite of 50-some different dork polls: Duke 63, BC 105, VT 110
-jk
Got it...Thanks Mtn. I think a lot depends on managing the emotional part of the game this year. Duke has the talent to compete with just about anyone on their schedule, injuries aside. Injuries happen to every team throughout the season, an unfortunate reality of FB.
Depth is always the issue for Duke. Duke got an ACC win and may get another but winning more than 2 games will be a big achievement as the season goes on and injuries start to increase. Folks here mainly wanted Duke to be competitive in games. So far they have been that - but winning games is a different story. UNC will not look past Duke this week. Duke will need to play their A game to stay close.