There's also a huge difference between an early and late second round pick. Early second round picks have been getting guaranteed contracts as of late... I know Isaiah Livers got one from the Pistons this past year, and I believe Vern and Tre both got them the year before. Now, they're of course guaranteed for a much shorter time frame (sometimes just a year) compared to first round picks, but that still means at least a million dollars in your pocket. And every time someone says "well that isn't that much", I remind myself that the US median income is around 50k (very approximate)... so (ignoring taxes) the average American would have to work 20 years to make the amount of money that an early second round pick would make, at minimum, from that contract. That is very significant.
I think moving forward the question with these decisions is going to be more about whether more time in college can improve someone's draft stock, as opposed to where exactly they're projected. Trevor would be drafted this year for sure, probably at latest in the mid second-round, and thus would be on the border of one of those guaranteed contracts. However, he could very conceivably have an Ivey/Davis/Murray like jump in Year 2 and go into the lottery, and increase his first contract's value by millions of dollars. If you contrast that with Wendell, I think most of us agree that he's likely a borderline first/second round pick this year or next, unless he takes an Ochai Agbaji like jump (which is possible!). If there is less possibility of improving the value of that first contract by returning, the risk starts to outweigh the reward even with NIL (unless you're a social media savant able to get into the 7 figures).
Now, in the past, players had to weigh that against the reality of earning ZERO money as a college athlete and the risk of injury. But with NIL and the ability to earn 6 figures (at least at a place like Duke) as a star collegiate athlete, that calculus changes considerably. I won't go through my "pot odds" analogy again since I'm sure I've bored everyone here with it enough, but that safety net of NIL makes a the worst case scenario much less scary, and is going to change the calculus significantly.
Scott Rich on the front page
Trinity BS 2012; University of Michigan PhD 2018
Duke Chronicle, Sports Online Editor: 2010-2012
K-Ville Blue Tenting 2009-2012
Unofficial Brian Zoubek Biographer
If you have questions about Michigan Basketball/Football, I'm your man!
His first two years out of Duke (2013-2015), he played in two NBA games each year and scored a total of three points. He became a roster player in 2015-2016, and the last two seasons he has started every game. Moreover, Seth's three-point percentage has been above 40 percent in every season. He is completing his seventh season an an NBA roster. His contract for $8 mil per year runs through 2023.
Seth was a late-developer out of both HS and college, starting at Liberty before transferring to Duke and then doing his time in the G League after Duke.
Sage Grouse
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'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013
Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill
President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club
Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill
President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club
We have a rule in my family called "traffic." When you're on the highway you can never, ever say something like, "Hey, we haven't hit any traffic" because that's the ultimate jinx and guaranteed to put us in a 30 min back up.
At least with respect to goings, I think that's a reasonable policy here.
Rich
"Failure is Not a Destination"
Coach K on the Dan Patrick Show, December 22, 2016
In defense of Sagegrouse, who probably does not need my assistance, I read the post not as a non-sequitur but as an amplification of/agreement with the post it responded to--essentially saying, yes, Seth Curry is a good example of someone who has exceeded expectations, and while we are talking about that, let's congratulate him.
I was just referencing the implicit "sub-thread" on Duke players who did well despite a non-lottery draft position (#30, I believe for Seth).
And, we have had this discussion before. Just because I quote your post, it doesn't mean that I am arguing with what you are saying.
Sage Grouse
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'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013
Yep, his floor is high. And there is the potential for more. I think he would need to get stronger with his dribble (he plays too upright on the dribble, which will get exploited at the next level) and make better decisions when dribbling (he seems to commit to a decision before he starts rather than being a more fluid, read and react player) to be a secondary playmaker. But it definitely isn’t out of the question!
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
Scott Rich on the front page
Trinity BS 2012; University of Michigan PhD 2018
Duke Chronicle, Sports Online Editor: 2010-2012
K-Ville Blue Tenting 2009-2012
Unofficial Brian Zoubek Biographer
If you have questions about Michigan Basketball/Football, I'm your man!