Phase IV - through UNC-II
Due to the shifting of the first UNC game later in the year (as part of the extension to the 18-game schedule), phase IV is just the seven-game stretch run to end the regular season. What should we be watching for down the stretch?
- Weathering the Road - 4 of the last 7 games for the Devils are away from Cameron, including road dates at 3 of the top 6 teams in the league - Maryland, Virginia, and the Dean Dome. Duke has looked good in precisely one road game (Florida State). Taking the show on the road and picking up wins on other teams' courts will be a big factor in determining whether Duke can stay in the #2 slot in the ACC (or, perhaps, get up to #1 if Miami slips).
- Health for the Healthy - (i.e., this is not the Ryan Kelly item) Duke has 9 active scholarship players, many of whom are experiencing the bumps and bruises that come with a full season of play. Plus there's the continuing issue of Seth's leg, which may particularly rear its head in the Miami game, given the short turnaround following the trip to Charlottesville. We don't really have the luxury of losing more guys to injury, so health is a key factor.
- Reintegration - (i.e., the Ryan Kelly item) Call me optimistic, but I believe we will see Ryan Kelly back in action during this phase, and sooner rather than later. How the team adjusts to his return - whether there are any speed bumps as he comes back to a team that's had to change its offense a bit in his absence, or whether the team simply picks up where it left off when he went out - and how long the team has to adjust could say a lot about what Duke's post-season prospects look like. Individually, Jefferson is the player who may have to adjust the most, as his minutes figure to be dramatically impacted by Ryan's return - keeping his confidence and continuing to make positive contributions in more limited playing time will be important.
- Power Forward - The 4 spot will be Duke's weakest as long as Kelly is out, but Hairston and Jefferson have both made valuable contributions. They'll have some tough tests down the stretch, including a beefy Maryland frontline, another matchup with Ryan Anderson, a battle with Akil Mitchell, and, potentially, another run with Kenny Kadji.
- Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Cook - Looking at Cook's ACC play as an 11-game average, everything looks great. 13 points, 6 assists, 2.2 turnovers, 1.5 steals, 35% from 3, 90% from the line. But there has been a lot of up and down in Quinn's game - he has 0-12, 1-11, and 3-12 shooting games, his last two games he has just 5 total assists (against 9 turnovers). Using advanced measures, he has 6 games where he, individually, has produced better than 1 point per possession used and 5 games where he has produced less than 1. Evening out the peaks and valleys (and, hopefully, evening them out more in the direction of peak, than valley) and getting some more consistency from Quinn's play will go a long way toward giving Duke a shot at a deeper run.
- Mason Plumlee, POY - Mason has shouldered the load in a big way in conference play. He's the team's leading scorer, a double digit rebounder, and stays on the court 36 minutes per game (including 3 full game runs). Teams have been throwing all sorts of different looks at him - Wake played him straight up and took away the perimeter pass, BC through double and triple teams at him, Carolina worked very hard to deny him the ball, etc. - and by and large he has adjusted and excelled. But the makeup of this team is such that he doesn't really get the luxury of a night off. Mason needs to continue to perform at a player of the year level and carry the team down the stretch.
- Read and React - As mentioned, teams have been throwing many different defensive looks at Duke and Duke has had some first half struggles adapting to the changes. Duke needs to continue improving its identification of the other teams' tactics and reacting to find the holes in the defense.
- Hitting the Defensive Glass - In conference play, Duke does really only one thing poorly - defensive rebounding. Improving the work on the glass and ending possessions after one shot will help Duke improve a defense that's been merely good, and not great.
Obviously, there's plenty more to look out for (barely a mention of Rasheed, Seth, and Tyler above), but those are some of the key factors that I'm looking at as Duke closes out the regular season.
Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.
You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner
You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke