PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[freshmanjs]

Well, in theory won't we eventually reach herd immunity? I don't pretend to know how many deaths that will result in (way too many) and it certainly is way, way down on my list of preferred outcomes. I'm 70 and I only have to be wrong once. Vaccine and treatment, treatment and vaccine.

Not clear. That requires lasting immunity. We don’t reach herd immunity for some other coronaviruses. Herd immunity also wasn’t one of the governor’s conditions for level 4, although I agree with BostonDevil that the criteria are probably just temporary

[rsvman]

Not clear. That requires lasting immunity. We don’t reach herd immunity for some other coronaviruses. Herd immunity also wasn’t one of the governor’s conditions for level 4, although I agree with BostonDevil that the criteria are probably just temporary

We could also presumably reach herd immunity via an effective vaccine, at least in theory. We don't have vaccines for any of the seasonal coronaviruses, and they also don't seem to spread as rapidly as this.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Three weeks ago we wondered when we would start hearing results from the POTUS rally in Tulsa.
They are coming in, and it ain't pretty.

The city of Tulsa is experiencing a surge in coronavirus cases, a little over 2 weeks after President Donald Trump held a campaign rally in an indoor arena there.

Dr. Bruce Dart, Executive Director of the Tulsa Health Department, said in a press conference on Wednesday there are high numbers being reported this week, with nearly 500 new cases in two days and trends are showing that those numbers will increase.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...l8z?li=BBnb7Kz

Reminder, this was the rally that was thankfully not well attended. (Thankfully for health reasons, not political.)

[sagegrouse]

Most cases per million pop. on Jul 8

 AZ 	484
 FL 	465
 LA 	406
 TN 	362
 TX 	352
 GA 	322
 SC 	302
 AR 	243
 ID 	241
 AL 	240
 KN 	233
 MS 	226
 UT 	225

AR continues to lead in total cases per million over FL. MS and SC have the highest new deaths per million.

In addition, new cases set records of 61,848. Seven day averages for new cases and new deaths are both moving up, a change. Seven day averages of new cases is setting records every day, at 53 thousand, 63 percent higher than the peak in April. Seven-day averages of new cases is at its highest in eight days at 580 per day.

[budwom]

One of my neighbors has a house on the Cape. They spent last week at said house. They went to the beach one day (they are open now in MA) and were turned away. The local police force is only allowing a certain number of people on the beach each day AND if the ones allowed on the beach are not practicing social distancing, they shut the access down early, as in even fewer people are allowed on the beach. And no, they don't let new people onto the beach as others leave, if it gets shut down, it stays shut.

We are 3 days into Phase 3 opening right now - meaning restaurants and movie theaters and casinos can open. I'm not going to any of those but I am getting my haircut next Thursday. Less than 200 new cases in the state for the 4th day in a row.

Governor Baker has announced that Phase 4 opening will not take place until there is either a vaccine or effective treatment. Phase 4 is large venues, road races, and a couple of other things that I can't remember right now. I don't know what constitutes a large venue but I think my director that is having us continue rehearsing Romeo & Juliet on Zoom every other Sunday is being a bit optimistic. I don't see us doing this show for at least a year and maybe more like early 2022, unless we move it outdoors. But hey, at least we're getting to pretend like we're still working actors.

Good for Gov Baker. Somehow, as a country, we moved from some CDC guidelines in which states would demonstrate an (unspecified) decrease in cases before opening stuff up...to a situation where most states ignored that guideline.
And now we are where we are, no one should be surprised, should they?

p.s. we've been sheltering/hiding at home, had a few outdoor meals, bring your own food socially distanced events with friends. Yesterday we got invited to get takeout from downtown Burlington, at a Bhutanese restaurant. Our Bhutanese community is in the midst of the state's biggest Covid outbreak, more than 74 people, most asymptomatic...I think we'll take a pass...

[camion]

Good for Gov Baker. Somehow, as a country, we moved from some CDC guidelines in which states would demonstrate an (unspecified) decrease in cases before opening stuff up...to a situation where most states ignored that guideline.
And now we are where we are, no one should be surprised, should they?

I am shocked, but not surprised.*




*In my youth I used that phrase as a joke on occasion. This is no joke.

[Bostondevil]

Good for Gov Baker. Somehow, as a country, we moved from some CDC guidelines in which states would demonstrate an (unspecified) decrease in cases before opening stuff up...to a situation where most states ignored that guideline.
And now we are where we are, no one should be surprised, should they?

p.s. we've been sheltering/hiding at home, had a few outdoor meals, bring your own food socially distanced events with friends. Yesterday we got invited to get takeout from downtown Burlington, at a Bhutanese restaurant. Our Bhutanese community is in the midst of the state's biggest Covid outbreak, more than 74 people, most asymptomatic...I think we'll take a pass...

Agreed. He was a little slow to shut things down in March, but not that slow. Local hospitals got close but never went past the tipping point into being overwhelmed. As we've been slowly opening back up, he has twice moved the date when our metrics weren't quite good enough to stick with the original date. Right now, there are a handful of towns that are still experiencing higher rates of infection (9% of the population, 27% of the new cases), so Governor Baker is beefing up testing efforts in those towns.

I have high hopes that tomorrow Middlesex County will "go green" and I can drive up to Burlington to pick up my son for a visit home.

[freshmanjs]

We could also presumably reach herd immunity via an effective vaccine, at least in theory. We don't have vaccines for any of the seasonal coronaviruses, and they also don't seem to spread as rapidly as this.

Yeah the conversation was:

1) the governor said no stage 4 until vaccine or therapy
2) hmm...we may never have a vaccine or therapy
3) well at least eventually we will get to herd immunity
4) or maybe not...

[CameronDuke]

COVID-19 IN VIRGINIA

Positive COVID-19 Cases: 67,988 (+613 from Wednesday)
People Hospitalized: 6,625 (+48 from Wednesday)
COVID-19-Linked Deaths: 1,937 (+32 from Wednesday)
Total Tests: 829,793 (+17,161 from Wednesday)

[PackMan97]

I really wish folks would report the number of active cases instead of cases since this COVID-19 became a thing. That really does no good.

[Kdogg]

Well, in theory won't we eventually reach herd immunity? I don't pretend to know how many deaths that will result in (way too many) and it certainly is way, way down on my list of preferred outcomes. I'm 70 and I only have to be wrong once. Vaccine and treatment, treatment and vaccine.

Not to bring you down and it’s only one study.

Coronavirus herd immunity may be 'unachievable' after study suggests antibodies disappear after weeks in some people

It seems those with mild cases don’t develop lasting immunity.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Yeah the conversation was:

1) the governor said no stage 4 until vaccine or therapy
2) hmm...we may never have a vaccine or therapy
3) well at least eventually we will get to herd immunity
4) or maybe not...

I had a few friends whose kids were going to sleepaway camp in Mass. starting this weekend and those were in stage 3, so they thought they would be OK. However, as I understand it, when he opened up stage 3, I think he shifted camps to stage 4 so camp was cancelled. They knew there was a distinct possibility this would happen but the 11th hour change in plans was not ideal - other states made their yes/no decision on camps a while ago. I'm not 100% sure if camp is the right idea now but these camps were taking major precautions - COVID tests a few days before and after arrival, staying in small groups for the first few weeks, limited indoor activities, no one in or out of camp. They are in parts of the country that are not being hit as badly now, though they do draw kids from all over. I know there are a few camps in Maine still running with similar precautions.

[Lord Ash]

Argh, I wrote a whole long post about school plans, and then my browser refreshed and I lost it all

[freshmanjs]

I really wish folks would report the number of active cases instead of cases since this COVID-19 became a thing. That really does no good.

Not sure how that would be possible without a massive retesting and follow up effort to know when active cases are resolved. This seems way beyond our will and skill at this point.

[budwom]

Not to bring you down and it’s only one study.

Coronavirus herd immunity may be 'unachievable' after study suggests antibodies disappear after weeks in some people

It seems those with mild cases don’t develop lasting immunity.

Yeah, this is anecdotal of course, but Tom Hanks was on TV last night saying that his (and his wife's) antibodies were fading fast...

[YmoBeThere]

Not to bring you down and it’s only one study.

Coronavirus herd immunity may be 'unachievable' after study suggests antibodies disappear after weeks in some people

It seems those with mild cases don’t develop lasting immunity.

Yeah, this is anecdotal of course, but Tom Hanks was on TV last night saying that his (and his wife's) antibodies were fading fast...

I thought rsvman had mentioned in a prior post that the level of antibodies was not the only metric of interest in these scenarios?

[OldPhiKap]

FWIW, the nephew of a law partner was diagnosed (but not tested) with COVID in February when he went to the hospital. This was when tests were very scarce.

He recovered, then got sick again last week. Testing showed that he has COVID again.

So unless the first diagnosis was wrong, or the second test was wrong, this guy caught it twice.

[budwom]

apropos to I don't know what, I just saw a front page picture from the N&O showing some guy carrying a rocket launcher in a Subway (the food stype)...are the Subways that dangerous down your way? Ours are pretty tranquil, the occasional
kerfuffle at the condiment station notwithstanding...

[MChambers]

"During a press briefing with Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves (R) on Wednesday, Dobbs confirmed that a recent COVID-19 outbreak at the state’s Capitol building in Jackson led to 36 people catching the virus, 26 of whom are Mississippi lawmakers."

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/o...-with-covid-19

[BD80]

apropos to I don't know what, I just saw a front page picture from the N&O showing some guy carrying a rocket launcher in a Subway (the food stype)...are the Subways that dangerous down your way? Ours are pretty tranquil, the occasional
kerfuffle at the condiment station notwithstanding...

Thank goodness he didn't get that online kit to turn it into a fully automatic weapon!


Seriously? A rocket launcher?

That is some seriously bad decision making! Maybe not quite as bad as deciding to eat at Subway, but still ...