MBB: Duke 56, Purdue 75 Post-Game Thread

[heyman25]

Yeah, the Purdue game was definitely a big step in the right direction for Proctor. It was really the first time in a Duke uniform that he put it together for the majority of a game. He had flashes in other games, but this was the first time he really put his stamp on a game against a solid opponent in my opinion. He has a bit of a Kennard feel to his offensive game (but with the typical Aussie scrappiness defensively and a bit more rebounding), and I kind of envision his freshman year looking a bit like that. If he can wind up with Kennard-like freshman year stats, that'll be terrific. He's probably a bit better a passer, but I see a lot of similarity in their ability to play with the right pace (neither is an elite run/jump athlete but both have a smooth feel to their game and excellent craftiness) and generate good shots despite being in traffic.

If he plays at about Kennard's level as a freshman, I'll be quite pleased. If he plays better than that, great. If he plays worse, that's not outlandish either, but obviously less desirable.

If he plays at freshman Kennard levels though, it puts more of an emphasis on Filipowski and Whitehead to be stars in order for the team to reach elite levels.

As for where he falls in the scoring spectrum, I tend to agree that 3rd or 4th (depending on where Roach finishes) is about right. I think Whitehead and Filipowski will wind up leading the team in scoring in conference play assuming everyone is healthy. From there, I suspect Roach and Proctor will be vying for that 3rd spot. Some games either one will flash up to the top, others they'll drop back to 4th or 5th.

Next game I want to see 2 in a row for Tyrese Proctor.I don't know why he had those bad sequences,but I would like him to make Purdue his new level of play.Psychologically Purdue was probably a shock for the team. I will wait and see what happens. Grandison we need you to hit shots. Young too. See some consistency.

Whitehead needs to get out of 2nd gear.Blakes never take a corner shot again. That is Grandison's favorite spot at Illinois. Call me crazy but try Schutt and Reeves if needed Wednesday.

[dlmzzz]

I expect Young’s minutes will dwindle. If not, I don’t think things are going as planned.

I seem to be hearing this from a number of posters. But I'm not sure that vision fits what we need.

Well, there are lots of ways you can offset being a bad shooting team. Both offensively and defensively. Essentially, the "four factors" are always the answer: shooting percentage, turnovers, rebounding, and FT rate.

So, Ryan Young is currently on the edge of the top 100 players in the country in terms of offensive rating, and 2 point %. He is 4th in the country in offensive rebounding %. His Free Throw Rate is quite good. Isn't that exactly what we are saying we need right now? Yes, his turnovers are too high. His defense is mediocre, but his defensive rebounding rate is solid.

He is strong in the areas where we are weak, and his weaknesses are in areas where the team is pretty strong. I'm not understanding why we aren't all eagerly pushing to take those trade offs.

[sagegrouse]

He is strong in the areas where we are weak, and his weaknesses are in areas where the team is pretty strong. I'm not understanding why we aren't all eagerly pushing to take those trade offs.

Because many on this Board have a fateful wish that we only play 6-7 players and are projecting their wishes onto their predictions. (Not really, but you wonder).

Moi, I believe that (a) Jon & Co. are determined to do things differently from K (no quick hook, for one) and (b) signaled their intention to play a lot of players when Young and Grandison were added to a reasonably full roster.

[kako]

duke keep calm.jpg

The heavy negative posts seem to have subsided a bit. But being that I spent way too much time on this (not that one could tell), I'm posting it anyway.

I will save it for years in the future (yes, fellow Crazies, Duke might yet lose a game or two in a November yet to come! Start a revival of the Concerned Iron Dukes now!).

9F

[nancypvt]

Love the gif kako!

[Jeffrey]

So, Ryan Young is currently on the edge of the top 100 players in the country in terms of offensive rating, and 2 point %. He is 4th in the country in offensive rebounding %. His Free Throw Rate is quite good. Isn't that exactly what we are saying we need right now? Yes, his turnovers are too high. His defense is mediocre, but his defensive rebounding rate is solid.

He is strong in the areas where we are weak, and his weaknesses are in areas where the team is pretty strong. I'm not understanding why we aren't all eagerly pushing to take those trade offs.

I’d like to open the paint for drivers. We have four potentially strong drivers and Flip. We don’t need an O primarily dependent on 3s. It be nice to open the middle for Whitehead, Mitchell, Proctor and Roach. This team has the potential to run many offensive styles and quickly adjust when one is clearly not working.

[SkyBrickey]

I seem to be hearing this from a number of posters. But I'm not sure that vision fits what we need.



So, Ryan Young is currently on the edge of the top 100 players in the country in terms of offensive rating, and 2 point %. He is 4th in the country in offensive rebounding %. His Free Throw Rate is quite good. Isn't that exactly what we are saying we need right now? Yes, his turnovers are too high. His defense is mediocre, but his defensive rebounding rate is solid.

He is strong in the areas where we are weak, and his weaknesses are in areas where the team is pretty strong. I'm not understanding why we aren't all eagerly pushing to take those trade offs.

Young has played a lot of minutes and has exceeded expectations. But as Lively and Whitehead get healthy and play more minutes, those minutes have to come from somewhere. My hope and I think a lot of posters hopes are that Lively eventually gives us more overall on the court than Young, especially on the defensive end. It’s no knock on Young. I just hope we have a higher ceiling with Lively and Flip.

[Saratoga2]

Here is a short evaluation of Whitehead's high school play. Notice that he is listed as 6'5" and if so may be best as a shooting guard or small forward. Maybe we just need to find the right usage for him to start to see his brilliance.

The 6-foot-5, 185-pound senior guard had led the Eagles to a 19-4 record and a berth in the Geico High School Nationals tournament at the time of his selection. Whitehead averaged 17.1 points, 5.1 rebounds and 2.4 assists through 23 games. The 2022 Naismith High School Player of the Year, Whitehead is also a McDonald’s All-American Game selection. He is ranked as the nation’s No. 1 recruit in the Class of 2022 by Rivals.com.

[kmspeaks]

Defensively, I'm not sure what you're supposed to do with Edey. Especially with the way the game was officiated. Purdue played a nearly perfect offensive game, save for that lull midway through the second half. I don't think anybody dy in CBB was beating Purdue today.

Yeah, if Duke fronted Edey, he would have walked the player up the lane, and the rest of the Purdue players would have been north of the free-throw line. Lob, score, repeat.

Duke wasn't going to neutralize Edey so that I wouldn't have game planned for him. I would have focused on limiting the other players. Back to your "easier said than done," but a strategy that probably has a better shot at success.

I also think Duke missed an opportunity to put pressure on Edey on the offensive end. Duke never attacked him with a driver nor did they go with Flip at the 5. I was more likely to be called for a foul yesterday than Edey was.

This is what I wanted to see and am disappointed it wasn't at least tried. Small ball with Flip at the 5 and let him go ISO from the wing. It couldn't have been any worse than what they were doing right?

[Dr. Maturin]

So, will we be a 1/2/3 seed, or a 4/5/6 seed? Obviously a 4-6 seed isn't bad; that's a top-25 team. And I think realistically we'll be at least that good. But I don't know yet if we will really be a top-10 team. Hopefully we get there. But I'm not sure yet.

In baseball projections you often hear talk of "error bars." That is, the range of possible outcomes for a player over a season. A promising young player, or a guy coming off a major injury, probably has a bigger error bar than a veteran who's put up consistent numbers.

This year's Duke team probably has a bigger error bar than any in recent memory. A lot of that has to do with having a new coach. It also has to do with the development of the freshmen.

I think your framing is pretty good. This is a talented team that has shown some strengths (offensive rebounding, generally solid defense). There seems to be potential for growth, but it's hard to know how much of that will be reached in the next few months. When it comes to 3-point shooting, I'll comfortably take the over on 29%. Still, that's likely not going to be a strength for this team. Likewise, we don't know what we'll get out of Whitehead and Lively. If they start to produce like many have expected, and Duke shoots ~35% on 3s, this could be a top 10 offense. However, that is starting to look like the best case scenario rather than an expectation. The good news is that the defense looks better than expected, at least to me. Last years team had the #1 KenPom offense and the #49 defense. If this team could end up in the top 25 of offense and defense, that would be pretty good.

[jv001]

This is what I wanted to see and am disappointed it wasn't at least tried. Small ball with Flip at the 5 and let him go ISO from the wing. It couldn't have been any worse than what they were doing right?

I think Flip at the "5" may help the offense, but I'd be concerned about him getting in foul trouble. If that happens, then the defense and offense both suffer. My hope is Lively is used in pick-n-roll action. I think we are leaving points off the scoreboard by not using this weapon. As for Whitehead, he looks like he's not in top physical shape and of course that is to be expected with his injury. He's not shown the explosiveness that I expected.

GoDuke!

[sagegrouse]

My reflection two days later: a very, very young team faced an unexpected and difficult opponent as the third game in four days. We should do better Wednesday vs. Ohio State.

[gumbomoop]

My reflection two days later: a very, very young team faced an unexpected and difficult opponent as the third game in four days.

Knowing little about Purdue’s players other than Edey, for me the most unexpected thing by far was the excellent play by their 2 frosh guards, neither highly “rated” (borderline top 100 and borderline top 200). References elsewhere in this thread to Purdue’s “experience” are not entirely justified.

[Kedsy]

Last season, Theo John's PER (a player efficiency rating very popular for rating NBA players) was 17.4. So far this season, here are the PERs of our rotation players:

Kyle Filipowski: 28.6
Ryan Young: 28.4
Mark Mitchell: 17.6
Jacob Grandison: 17.1
Dereck Lively: 14.5
Jeremy Roach: 14.2
Jaylen Blakes: 13.4
Tyrese Proctor: 8.3
Dariq Whitehead: 4.6

PER has defensive components, but it's mostly an offensive rating. If Theo John would basically be tied for the 3rd-best PER on this year's team, it's amazing that we're still a top 30 offense (which according to both Pomeroy and Torvik, we are).

The thing is, it will be almost impossible for likely NBA players like Proctor and Whitehead to remain at those abysmal levels. Since Dariq came back from injury, those two have combined for 42+ mpg, more than 20% of the team's minutes, and that number should go up as the season moves along. Fortunately, those two guys don't have to rise to astronomical levels for our team offense to be way better than it is right now (and right now, it's already pretty good). They just have to rise to Theo John level.

As for Dereck Lively, I thought that before he got into foul trouble he was playing outstanding defense on Edey. And while I doubt his offense will reach freshman Mark Williams level this season, I do believe it will improve over the freshman Javin DeLaurier level that it is now. Overall, I think Dereck's D has been excellent all season and will be an important component for Duke's continued success, which is why I think his minutes will go up as the season wears on, probably at Ryan Young's expense.

To sum up, we've played like a top 15/top 20 team so far this season and it seems very likely that 30% to 40% of our rotation minutes will feature vastly improved play by the time the calendar moves to 2023. So I'm not particularly worried about our prospects as the season wears on.

[CDu]

To sum up, we've played like a top 15/top 20 team so far this season and it seems very likely that 30% to 40% of our rotation minutes will feature vastly improved play by the time the calendar moves to 2023. So I'm not particularly worried about our prospects as the season wears on.

A few things to consider:

1. While we've possibly played like a top-15/20 team, I'm not sure if that's true or if that's somewhat inflated by preseason rankings. Torvik had us at #5 to start the season, and we're down to 15. I don't know how much he weights preseason rankings, but that would potentially suggest we've not been playing like the #15 team. KenPom definitely still weights the preseason, but Duke has dropped to #20 in spite of being - I think - rated around #15 in the preseason. So I'd argue that neither model thinks we've been playing like a top-15/20 team to this point. Probably more like a top-25/30 team.

2. And point #1 is an average. We've excelled against non P6 opponents, but our play against P6 opponents has definitely not been at top-20 level. We've played more like a team in the ~50 range in those 4 games, and overperformed against those non-P6 schools at home. Hopefully the team settles in and starts playing more like the #15-20 team. But I wouldn't classify our play thus far as "playing like the #15-20 team and likely to get better from there."

3. While I completely agree that Whitehead and Proctor will improve, it's fair to point out that playing Lively more at the expense of Young means a reduction in PER from the C spot. Young is currently our #2 player in PER, so playing him less isn't likely to be a net positive on offense. That said, it should be a net positive on defense, assuming Lively can continue to improve on that end.

All that said, I do believe we're going to get better. The only question is how much better. There is still uncertainty as to how good Whitehead, Proctor, and Lively will get this year, and just how good a coach Scheyer will be this year. Certainly the hope is that Whitehead plays like a typical top-2 recruit and not like Harrison Barnes or Cam Reddish, and that Lively develops into a typical #1 recruit, and that Proctor finds his legs and is an impact guard exceeding his ranking. And hopefully Scheyer is a great coach. There have been positive signs regarding Proctor (the Purdue game) and Scheyer (getting the team to look coordinated defensively is a good sign). But there's still a lot of uncertainty.

[kmspeaks]

I think Flip at the "5" may help the offense, but I'd be concerned about him getting in foul trouble. If that happens, then the defense and offense both suffer. My hope is Lively is used in pick-n-roll action. I think we are leaving points off the scoreboard by not using this weapon. As for Whitehead, he looks like he's not in top physical shape and of course that is to be expected with his injury. He's not shown the explosiveness that I expected.

GoDuke!

It's probably not an ideal situation to operate in routinely, but was worth exploring in this particular matchup. Duke clearly had no answer for Edey on defense so why not make him chase Flip around the perimeter and see if you can get him tired and/or in foul trouble of his own.

[Kedsy]

And point #1 is an average. We've excelled against non P6 opponents, but our play against P6 opponents has definitely not been at top-20 level. We've played more like a team in the ~50 range in those 4 games, and overperformed against those non-P6 schools at home. Hopefully the team settles in and starts playing more like the #15-20 team. But I wouldn't classify our play thus far as "playing like the #15-20 team and likely to get better from there."

Maybe. It's only four games, and we played like a top 5 team in one of them (Xavier). Also, while it's true we didn't play like a top team against Oregon State, according to the ratings systems, they're the 2nd-worst team we've played all season, so I don't know why you'd lump them in with Kansas, Purdue, and Xavier (whether they're P6 or not). So it's really only three games, one we won (and played like a top 5 team) and one we almost won (and probably played like at least a top 20 team), so I'm not sure whether what you're saying is any more accurate than what I said.

Certainly the hope is that Whitehead plays like a typical top-2 recruit and not like Harrison Barnes or Cam Reddish...

Harrison Barnes was the ACC freshman of the year in 2011, averaging 15.6/5.8/1.4. If Whitehead does that, it would be fabulous. Even playing like Reddish (13.6 PER) would be a big lift over Dariq's current 4.6 PER. That was my point-- Whitehead and Proctor and Lively don't have to play like top 5 recruits for our team to improve drastically over what is a pretty good team right now. They just have to improve to decent ACC-level players. Which they should.

[CDu]

Maybe. It's only four games, and we played like a top 5 team in one of them (Xavier). Also, while it's true we didn't play like a top team against Oregon State, according to the ratings systems, they're the 2nd-worst team we've played all season, so I don't know why you'd lump them in with Kansas, Purdue, and Xavier (whether they're P6 or not). So it's really only three games, one we won (and played like a top 5 team) and one we almost won (and probably played like at least a top 20 team), so I'm not sure whether what you're saying is any more accurate than what I said.

I grouped Oregon State with the other P6 schools because we will be playing P6 schools the rest of the way until the NCAA tournament, save for one more game against an OOC patsy. So Oregon State is part of that mix. Some will be very bad, some will be very good. We played very poorly against Oregon St. So I don't think it's appropriate to discard that data point as meaningless. I would argue it's more relevant to the team's status the rest of the season than the games against non-P6 opponents, all of which were home games. Because it's a P6 opponent, and it wasn't a home game (we'll be adding a bunch of P6 opponents and road games once ACC play starts).

But even if you discard the Oregon St game, we haven't played like a top-15/20 team on average in the other 3 games. We've played like a team in the mid-30s, with one very nice win, one awful loss, and one performance in the #20-25 range against Kansas. So if you want to group the Oregon St game with the other bad teams, we've played like a top-15/20ish team against bad opponents (because the Oregon State game was a performance on par with teams in the 250 range and somewhat weighs down the great results of the 4 games in Cameron) and like a team in the mid-30s against good opponents. In other words, like a top-25/30 team overall.

So again, I don't we have been playing like a top-15/20 team so far. We have probably been playing like a #25-30ish team overall; worse against better teams, and notably worse against P6 teams. Our schedule gets tougher and more P6-focused moving forward. So, my point was simply that...

Harrison Barnes was the ACC freshman of the year in 2011, averaging 15.6/5.8/1.4. If Whitehead does that, it would be fabulous. Even playing like Reddish (13.6 PER) would be a big lift over Dariq's current 4.6 PER. That was my point-- Whitehead and Proctor and Lively don't have to play like top 5 recruits for our team to improve drastically over what is a pretty good team right now. They just have to improve to decent ACC-level players. Which they should.

The bolded feels like a bit of an overstatement, if "pretty good" is meant to imply a top-15/20 team. I think we still have to improve a fair amount to be playing like a top-15/20 team. And we'd have to improve a lot to be playing like a top-10 team. I don't think it's a given that we'll improve to the level of a top-5 or top-10 team. I think it's highly likely we improve at least to the level of a top-20 team, but beyond that I think it's quite uncertain. I definitely hope we can get to be playing like a top-10 team, and there is definitely an avenue to do so if guys make the necessary improvements. But I don't think it's as straightforward as what you are suggesting.

[azzefkram]

3. While I completely agree that Whitehead and Proctor will improve, it's fair to point out that playing Lively more at the expense of Young means a reduction in PER from the C spot. Young is currently our #2 player in PER, so playing him less isn't likely to be a net positive on offense. That said, it should be a net positive on defense, assuming Lively can continue to improve on that end.

I am not sure Dereck has to improve to be a net positive on defense over Ryan. In the games against the tougher competition (Kansas, Xavier, and Purdue), Dereck has double the defensive rebounds (6-3), triple the steals (3-1), and 5 blocks (5-0) in roughly the same amount of minutes played. The ol' eye test looks better for Dereck as well.

I expect Dereck to do better on the offensive end. The guards can do a better job of getting him the ball in spots where he can do damage, and he can do a better job of making himself a target.

Ryan is more skilled, but his lack of athleticism is a huge drawback. I remember a sequence from the Purdue game. Ryan corrals an offensive rebound (hurrah) in traffic under the basket. Instead of taking it back up, he tries to shuffle the ball off to a guard in the lane. The ball is picked off by Purdue (boo) and taken the other way for an easy transition basket (double-boo). Dereck has a better chance of taking that offensive rebound and doing something positive with it than Ryan does.

[CDu]

I am not sure Dereck has to improve to be a net positive on defense over Ryan. In the games against the tougher competition (Kansas, Xavier, and Purdue), Dereck has double the defensive rebounds (6-3), triple the steals (3-1), and 5 blocks (5-0) in roughly the same amount of minutes played. The ol' eye test looks better for Dereck as well.

Oh I totally agree that the defense will be better when Lively plays more. The end of that sentence you quoted was more me having a "will the added defense offset the decline in offense?" thought, but it really shouldn't have been in that sentence.

I expect Dereck to do better on the offensive end. The guards can do a better job of getting him the ball in spots where he can do damage, and he can do a better job of making himself a target.

I don't expect Lively to do much more on offense than he's currently doing, just perhaps with a few more chances in the added minutes. He wasn't a good offensive player in high school either. His value is his length and athleticism on the defensive end. But his offensive game is REALLY raw.

Would it be nice if Lively got more lobs? Yes. But that seems like the extent of his offensive game at this stage of his career.

Ryan is more skilled, but his lack of athleticism is a huge drawback. I remember a sequence from the Purdue game. Ryan corrals an offensive rebound (hurrah) in traffic under the basket. Instead of taking it back up, he tries to shuffle the ball off to a guard in the lane. The ball is picked off by Purdue (boo) and taken the other way for an easy transition basket (double-boo). Dereck has a better chance of taking that offensive rebound and doing something positive with it than Ryan does.

It's funny; I remember an identical turn of events for Lively in that game. So I'm not sure that this anecdote creates the positive separation you were intending. Young's lack of athleticism limits him offensively in certain situations, but his savvy and skill carries him. Lively's lack of skill and lack of strength limits him offensively, but his length and mobility allows him to be useful in certain situations.

I think in aggregate Young is a much better offensive player and Lively a better defensive player, with the upside to be much better defensively. In aggregate, Young has been the better player overall. Hopefully Lively's offense gets slightly less abysmal, and his defense gets substantially better. In that sense, he could/should overtake Young overall. But I don't see a realistic scenario where Lively is the better offensive player of the two this year.