Math and Logic Errors

[OldPhiKap]

In no-limit hold’em poker, pocket aces have an 85% chance to win against any single random hand.

Yet, folks are stunned when their aces get cracked.

Much of poker, btw, is simple probability analysis. Probability of hitting a good card, probability of opponent’s action based upon observed tendencies. Some would say that there is no luck in poker — only variance, and skill in determining when to take a risk given your ability(skill) to read what your opponent is likely doing.

[Acymetric]

In no-limit hold’em poker, pocket aces have an 85% chance to win against any single random hand.

Yet, folks are stunned when their aces get cracked.

Much of poker, btw, is simple probability analysis. Probability of hitting a good card, probability of opponent’s action based upon observed tendencies. Some would say that there is no luck in poker — only variance, and skill in determining when to take a risk given your ability(skill) to read what your opponent is likely doing.

Ready for a semantic argument over whether there is a significant difference between "variance" and "luck" in this context?

[jimsumner]

In no-limit hold’em poker, pocket aces have an 85% chance to win against any single random hand.

Yet, folks are stunned when their aces get cracked.

Much of poker, btw, is simple probability analysis. Probability of hitting a good card, probability of opponent’s action based upon observed tendencies. Some would say that there is no luck in poker — only variance, and skill in determining when to take a risk given your ability(skill) to read what your opponent is likely doing.

If we're introducing gambling, how about the number of people who are convinced that they have a good chance of winning the lottery, aka, the Voluntary Tax on the Mathematically Impaired? America's number one retirement plan.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

If we're introducing gambling, how about the number of people who are convinced that they have a good chance of winning the lottery, aka, the Voluntary Tax on the Mathematically Impaired? America's number one retirement plan.

...now you're going all "freakanomics" on us...

[freshmanjs]

If we're introducing gambling, how about the number of people who are convinced that they have a good chance of winning the lottery, aka, the Voluntary Tax on the Mathematically Impaired? America's number one retirement plan.

Never quite understood this. I understand the math just fine and buy lottery tickets. I'll happily take a negative expected value with a tiny chance at a huge payout with a miniscule portion of my discretionary money.

[SoCalDukeFan]

a miniscule portion of my discretionary money.

Not sure that all of the lottery players conform to that idea.

SoCal

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Never quite understood this. I understand the math just fine and buy lottery tickets. I'll happily take a negative expected value with a tiny chance at a huge payout with a miniscule portion of my discretionary money.

...but I think Jim is right that a lot of people who buy lottery tix are not looking at it as logically as you are...

[LasVegas]

You can't conclude whether it is rare for him to miss without knowing how often he shoots. Take a shooter who makes 90%, but only shoots one shot every 100 years. It is much more rare for him to make a shot than for JJ to miss one.

Dedication by this man to do this for 1000 years to get to 90%. Talk about pressure .

[OldPhiKap]

Dedication by this man to do this for 1000 years to get to 90%. Talk about pressure .

Better hit the first one, it gets tougher after that.

[Nick]

Math and logic are very weak spots in this country today - and of course, math IS logic, and vice versa.

Math and logic have been weak spots in all countries in the entire history of civilization. It's just not a natural way of thinking for most people.

[Acymetric]

You can't conclude whether it is rare for him to miss without knowing how often he shoots. Take a shooter who makes 90%, but only shoots one shot every 100 years. It is much more rare for him to make a shot than for JJ to miss one.

Perhaps rarity can be relative, such that it is rare for JJ to miss a free throw compared to typical players (cases).

[Reilly]

... Take a shooter who makes 90%, but only shoots one shot every 100 years ...

Not to derail things, but does anyone else feel he deserves more minutes?

[OldPhiKap]

Not to derail things, but does anyone else feel he deserves more minutes?

“You must spread some Comments around before commenting on Reilly again.”

[Tripping William]

“You must spread some Comments around before commenting on Reilly again.”

Gotcha covered. Hilarious!

[Acymetric]

Not to derail things, but does anyone else feel he deserves more minutes?

“You must spread some Comments around before commenting on Reilly again.”

Gotcha covered. Hilarious!

Seconded...that laugh got my day started out on the right foot at least.

[BLPOG]

Perhaps rarity can be relative, such that it is rare for JJ to miss a free throw compared to typical players (cases).

There's another point some folks are missing. They appear to be treating common and rare as A and NOT A. I don't see that as a given. They should be A and B.

[Jeffrey]

So, if you were announcing the once in a hundred years shooter and he made a shot, would you say "That was an extremely common made shot for Centurion man?"

When he went to the line, I'd say, "Who dat? This is the first FT Centurion man has ever taken, so we have absolutely no idea what to expect".

The hard part, for me, would be not then saying, "I wonder what rules UNC is breaking this time? Geez, I guess it does not matter, the NCAA will not do anything, regardless".

[Reddevil]

How many on the board thought it was an easy question?

Well, it was difficult for me because it was outside of my wheelhouse, kind of like 9/11 was at the time. It is refreshing somehow to know that I am not quite as jaded as I thought I was.

[Jeffrey]

In no-limit hold’em poker, pocket aces have an 85% chance to win against any single random hand.

Yet, folks are stunned when their aces get cracked.

I've never played, but aren't their pocket aces likely (at least 50% chance) to be cracked? If most players stay in, then doesn't the person with pocket aces have less than a 50% chance of winning?

I'm not sure anyone would be stunned when a 45% FT shooter misses. Hack-a-Shaq may be prudent.

[OldPhiKap]

The main thing I would want to ask Century Man is, what part of John Cage's Organ2/ASLSP was his favorite?