From The Center of Advanced Hind Sight [an actual Duke entity]
Originally Posted by
Kedsy
Here's a couple low-sample, probably non-predictive stats for you:
So far this season, Duke is 11-3 when we shoot 30% or better from three and 0-7 when we shoot lower than 30% from three.
So far this season, Duke is 9-1 when our opponent's free throw rate is 30% or lower, and 2-9 when the opposing FTR is higher than 30%.
The opposite doesn't show the same kind of extreme trend: Duke is 7-8 when our opponent shoots 30% or better from three, 4-2 when they shoot lower than 30%; and Duke is 3-2 when our FTR is higher than 30%, 8-8 when it's 30% or lower.
Like I said, it probably won't predict anything, especially for this game, as UNC generally "splits" the stats: they get fouled a lot (average FTR of 34.6%) but their opponents shoot well from three (average opponent shoots 35.1% from three). True to form, last UNC game we split, shooting 44% from three but fouling UNC to the tune of a 34.5% free throw rate.
All that said, if we shoot well from distance and don't foul too much, I like our chances.
Kedsy, thanks for those very interesting stats!
I would like to add a predictive stat from Ol Roy's highly regarded statistics department: If we win on Saturday, we should have scheduled the game. If we lose, we should not have scheduled it.
“I love it. Coach, when we came here, we had a three-hour meeting about the core values. If you really represent the core values, it means diving on the floor, sacrificing your body for your teammates, no matter how much you’re up by or how much you’re down by, always playing hard.” -- Zion