Brexit & British Politics

[OldPhiKap]

Don't laugh, but there is a lot of talk that Boris Johnson may be the next prime minister. He and Rishi Sunak appear to be the two main candidates being talked about.

FWIW:

https://twitter.com/ferrotv/status/1583110369748582400?s=46&t=Rx2V1esUmMiUVUJ4TGtLrQ

“35% chance of Sunak becoming PM; 30% for Mordaunt; 15% for Braverman; 15% Badenoch and 5% for Johnson… general election is unlikely but raise the odds from 5% to 10% due to fears, shared by some ministers, that the party’s mutinous MPs have become ‘ungovernable.’”

Eurasia Group (Per Jonathan Ferro, Bloomberg)

[Bluedog]

She's hanging around until a new PM is selected so she will be there at least another six weeks.



TL;DR.

To be Prime Minister you have to be the head of a party. In the UK, the head of the party is chosen by dues paying members of that party. Your party has to have the most representatives in Parliament. The head of the party with the majority becomes PM. If there is not majority parties can form collations and share power. (Like the party with more seats get to have the PM and the other gets deputy PM, etc...) There is no direct election to become the Prime Minister. If you are no longer the leader of the party you can't still be PM. The Tories decided they don't want Liz as head of the Tories so she can't be PM either.


The long version for the Parliamentary system. There are differences but this system covers the majority of the democratic world.

Although the Tories and Labour are the biggest parties, the UK has about half a dozen viable ones (and a couple joke ones not including the Tories).

The leader of the party is ultimately chosen by dues paying members of that party. Each party has a different way of narrowing the field that it presents to members to chose from but they have to be an elected member of Parliament.

People vote for a representative to Parliament for their district in an open election. If a party has a majority of the representatives (Member of Parliament - MPs) they can form a government. The leader of the party becomes the Prime Minister and selects the other leadership position in the cabinet. In the UK, they are call frontbenchers. Backbenchers are everyone else in the party. If enough of the MPs loss faith in the PM they can try to remove him/her through a vote of no confidence. This can be done on both the Parliamentary level were all MPs (regardless of party) vote or just within the party. The last three PMs have been removed from leadership of their party. If you don't lead the party you can't be the Prime Minister. The party then looks for a new leader.

In the chance that no single party gets a majority, multiple parties can pool there MPs into a collation and form a government. They figure out a way to split the power. We are seeing this in Italy where the PM resigned, they had a general election but no majority. Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy are trying to form a collation with the League and Forza Italia that will be the most far-right government since Mussolini. It will topple the old government. Same thing happened in Sweden by a narrow margin.

If parties can't from a collation, it's back to another general election. Israel, for example, will have five general elections in the last 2.5 years. That situation is actually worse then the UK but Israel is a smaller player in the world so it doesn't get the same coverage.

When a government has lost the mandate from the people (like this one in the UK) they can call for a general election. The people then decided if it's time for a change or re-up with the status quo. The problem is we are long removed from country over party in the UK.

Thanks for the rundown.

Seems like our Founding Fathers (U.S.) were kinda smart to not totally duplicate the UK system. Not that our system is perfect...and they didn't anticipate there being only two viable parties in the U.S. (as there used to be more at the beginning). But they probably took some "lessons learned" even though the 1700s were quite different from today and things have continued to evolve.

[Kdogg]

Don't laugh, but there is a lot of talk that Boris Johnson may be the next prime minister. He and Rishi Sunak appear to be the two main candidates being talked about.

Oh joy of joys. That would be just so the universe can continue my ongoing nightmare.

Honestly, I can't see him getting enough support from the MPs. I could see party members get back on board but hopefully they don't get the option. If I was a betting man (and I'm not) I would guess Mordaunt will be the next PM although the markets would prefer Sunak. Still waiting to hear what Ben Wallace does. They keep saying a new leader will be selected by next weeks. I'm not sure what kind of accelerated time table would allow that with MPs votes and then the general party. I guess we will see.

Man, is it basketball season yet?

[Kdogg]

Thanks for the rundown.

Seems like our Founding Fathers (U.S.) were kinda smart to not totally duplicate the UK system. Not that our system is perfect...and they didn't anticipate there being only two viable parties in the U.S. (as there used to be more at the beginning). But they probably took some "lessons learned" even though the 1700s were quite different from today and things have continued to evolve.

The beauty of the Founding Fathers' design was the separation of powers. A President is not necessarily from the same party as the majority in Congress, nor are he and his cabinet members of Congress. That's not the case in the UK. When a cabinet minister resigns in the UK, they are still an elected MPs. That's why Boris is still running around Westminster. In more rational times and especially in times where being a member of Congress was a side hustle it encourages compromise.

[JasonEvans]

Oh joy of joys. That would be just so the universe can continue my ongoing nightmare.

Honestly, I can't see him getting enough support from the MPs. I could see party members get back on board but hopefully they don't get the option. If I was a betting man (and I'm not) I would guess Mordaunt will be the next PM although the markets would prefer Sunak. Still waiting to hear what Ben Wallace does. They keep saying a new leader will be selected by next weeks. I'm not sure what kind of accelerated time table would allow that with MPs votes and then the general party. I guess we will see.

Everyone is saying it will be done in a week. The plan is to have a new PM by next Friday.

It is unclear if they will put it to a vote of the party members. They may just let the MPs pick a new leader and call it a day. If they do put it to party members, they are likely to do some kind of on-line vote that can be accomplished fairly quickly.

The big question seems to be if they are picking a temporary MP to lead them into a general election or if they will try to find someone to keep things going until the mandated general election which would be in January of 2025.

Seems like it will be sorta impossible to hold things together with the Conservative party as divided as it is right now. Then again, if they have a general election today, a lot lot lot of those Conservative MPs will find themselves out of a job. That's a powerful motivator to get along.

[Kdogg]

Everyone is saying it will be done in a week. The plan is to have a new PM by next Friday.

It is unclear if they will put it to a vote of the party members. They may just let the MPs pick a new leader and call it a day. If they do put it to party members, they are likely to do some kind of on-line vote that can be accomplished fairly quickly.

The big question seems to be if they are picking a temporary MP to lead them into a general election or if they will try to find someone to keep things going until the mandated general election which would be in January of 2025.

Seems like it will be sorta impossible to hold things together with the Conservative party as divided as it is right now. Then again, if they have a general election today, a lot lot lot of those Conservative MPs will find themselves out of a job. That's a powerful motivator to get along.

They are not calling a general. That's suicide. Any type of accelerated selection process will favor Sunak. I just can't see them bypassing the rank and file.

[dudog84]

Props to OPK for leading me to check Larry the Cat regularly.

https://twitter.com/Number10cat/stat...25516764479488

https://twitter.com/Number10cat/stat...72541677002752

[JasonEvans]

The Conservative Party committee that handles party elections has announced how they will pick a new PM.

Any candidate needs to get 100 signatures from current MPs to run for the office. Seeing as there are currently 357 Tory MPs, that means there would be a maximum of 3 candidates in the race. There will be a vote among all the MPs on Monday. I am unclear what they are voting upon if there are only 2 candidates. Apparently, the plan is for the final 2 to be elected by an online party membership vote next week.

If only 1 candidate gets the signature of 100 MPs, that person will be named the new PM without a vote of party membership.

[OldPhiKap]

Props to OPK for leading me to check Larry the Cat regularly.

https://twitter.com/Number10cat/stat...25516764479488

https://twitter.com/Number10cat/stat...72541677002752

Larry knows all, sees all. He will likely still have his job at No. 10 come next weekend.

[OldPhiKap]

The Conservative Party committee that handles party elections has announced how they will pick a new PM.

Any candidate needs to get 100 signatures from current MPs to run for the office. Seeing as there are currently 357 Tory MPs, that means there would be a maximum of 3 candidates in the race. There will be a vote among all the MPs on Monday. I am unclear what they are voting upon if there are only 2 candidates. Apparently, the plan is for the final 2 to be elected by an online party membership vote next week.

If only 1 candidate gets the signature of 100 MPs, that person will be named the new PM without a vote of party membership.

Thanks for this.

Can Boris get 100 signatures this close to his ouster? If we were six months down the road I would say maybe, but this close to the last exit would seem like an even greater crudshow for the Tories. But I am sure the politicking is in high gear for all hopefuls right now.

[JasonEvans]

The Conservative Party committee that handles party elections has announced how they will pick a new PM.

Any candidate needs to get 100 signatures from current MPs to run for the office. Seeing as there are currently 357 Tory MPs, that means there would be a maximum of 3 candidates in the race. There will be a vote among all the MPs on Monday. I am unclear what they are voting upon if there are only 2 candidates. Apparently, the plan is for the final 2 to be elected by an online party membership vote next week.

If only 1 candidate gets the signature of 100 MPs, that person will be named the new PM without a vote of party membership.

Wait, I have it figured out now...

The vote on Monday among MPs is to get to the 100 person threshold. So, the MPs will vote Monday and anyone who gets to 100 votes will be on the ballot for the general party members to vote upon. If there are 3 who get to 100 votes, there will be an instant runoff to narrow the field to 2. If only 1 gets to 100 votes, that person becomes PM.

[sagegrouse]

Wait, I have it figured out now...

The vote on Monday among MPs is to get to the 100 person threshold. So, the MPs will vote Monday and anyone who gets to 100 votes will be on the ballot for the general party members to vote upon. If there are 3 who get to 100 votes, there will be an instant runoff to narrow the field to 2. If only 1 gets to 100 votes, that person becomes PM.

Ah, a field day for the political scientists: What is the process and dealing among minor candidates to get one of their number over the 100-vote threshold.

[OldPhiKap]

Ah, a field day for the political scientists: What is the process and dealing among minor candidates to get one of their number over the 100-vote threshold.

You would think the factions within the party would work to get a single compromise candidate for their “side”. Some serious horse trading going on I suspect.

[Kdogg]

Ah, a field day for the political scientists: What is the process and dealing among minor candidates to get one of their number over the 100-vote threshold.

I have to think that 100 vote threshold was intentional set that high. It's going to be difficult for Boris to meet that The guy isn't even in England right now. He's on a Caribbean holiday. Sane MPs don't want him on a ballot that goes out to membership. That threshold is also going to keep Brexit darlings like Suella Braverman and Kemi Badenoch from being finalists. As some as Ben Wallace makes a decision I think phase one is done. There is a slight possibility that Sunak has this wrapped up by Monday.

[OldPhiKap]

I have to think that 100 vote threshold was intentional set that high. It's going to be difficult for Boris to meet that The guy isn't even in England right now. He's on a Caribbean holiday. Sane MPs don't want him on a ballot that goes out to membership. That threshold is also going to keep Brexit darlings like Suella Braverman and Kemi Badenoch from being finalists. As some as Ben Wallace makes a decision I think phase one is done. There is a slight possibility that Sunak has this wrapped up by Monday.

Hunt still saying he is uninterested?

[MChambers]

If the moderators think this post belongs on the basketball portion of the board, please feel free to move. I think it's important to point out several commentators on Twitter have compared Liz Truss's departure to college basketball events of the past:

https://twitter.com/texaninnyc/statu...rGAwc8T67mnzFQ

https://twitter.com/ChrisSchutte3/st...rGAwc8T67mnzFQ

[OldPhiKap]

If the moderators think this post belongs on the basketball portion of the board, please feel free to move. I think it's important to point out several commentators on Twitter have compared Liz Truss's departure to college basketball events of the past:

https://twitter.com/texaninnyc/statu...rGAwc8T67mnzFQ

https://twitter.com/ChrisSchutte3/st...rGAwc8T67mnzFQ

These are genius.

[OldPhiKap]

Wow, Ukraine is trolling:

CA7C94BF-6360-4AC5-B43F-5979D4081FE1.jpg

Not sure I’d do that.

[Ggallagher]

I can't even pretend to understand how the British system works.

Yep, the current Russian system of "Oh look, there's something you need to see outside this window" is noticeably more transparent.

[Kdogg]

Wow, Ukraine is trolling:

CA7C94BF-6360-4AC5-B43F-5979D4081FE1.jpg

Not sure I’d do that.

I think it's an endorsement. BoJo was an outspoken supporter of Ukraine. His government was one of the first to provide support. They love him.