2024 U.S. Presidential election

[ClemmonsDevil]

My idea is that all two-party elections should have a 'none of the above' voting option, and if 'none of the above' gets more votes than both candidates, the parties have to produce better choices.

If only they could.

[Rich]

I begin my lectures in Canada with: "I'm sorry for what we have going on politically in the US. I know we make y'all feel like you live in this great apartment...perched right on top of a meth lab."

How does the audience respond? Nervous laughter?

[lotusland]

My view, which will undoubtedly wobble over the next 16 months, is that Dems will hope to use the fact of abortion bans in red states to persuade “middle 5% moderates” in swing states to vote Dem. Both on the general point that Repubs want to control women, so vote Dem; and on the specific points that (1) a majority Dem state legislature will protect women’s autonomy from Repub threats in our own state, and (2) we need a Dem President and Dem majorities in the US Senate and House to protect that autonomy over the immediate and longer term (judicial nominees, national legislation).

Repubs, having won with Dobbs and with several red-state bans, will perhaps emphasize the “let’s leave the abortion issue to each state to decide” argument. But then Dems will respond, “We want our state to protect a woman’s right to choose. Repubs want to control women’s bodies. Vote Dem.”

I agree with this take. Recent elections in Kansas and Wisconsin show Rs are vulnerable on Dobbs.

[Matches]

I was not politically aware enough in 1984 or 1988, but at what age did Reagan begin to show signs of Alzheimers. I feel very certain that by the time the Iran-Contra and Oliver North scandals rolled around, he was having issues. Seeking a historical precidence for the issue.

Reagan was showing some symptoms of early Alzheimer’s during his final year in office, per insider accounts at the time. Much like the right pushes the false narrative of Biden being a vegetable now, the left grossly exaggerated Reagan’s symptoms back then. The most convincing lies usually start with a kernel of truth.

[ClemmonsDevil]

How does the audience respond? Nervous laughter?

Actually just severe looks on their faces and lots of nodding.

[ClemmonsDevil]

I agree with this take. Recent elections in Kansas and Wisconsin show Rs are vulnerable on Dobbs.

That's right. Turnout was exceptionally High where people felt like abortion rights were on the chopping block. This explains Republican gains in New York, New Jersey and California which yielded them the House. There's no real danger of losing rights in any of those states and Democrats didn't show up there in the way they rolled out in states where abortion rights are in peril.

Republicans are in a rough spot here because this is something they have fought for for 50 years and honestly I don't think elected Republicans ever expected this to occur. So it's not like they can backpedal because they've spent half a century trying to do this. Yes this suggests that I don't think that elected officials had actual beliefs in what they were saying. It's like the dog who caught the car. Now what? Because if they back pedal they will be absolutely punished and primaried from the right but this only appeals to about 20% of the electorate at large and not even a majority of Republican voters. And it really energizes the left and moderates in states where those rights are being scaled back. It's the perfect wedge issue for Democrats when it was a very good wedge issue for Republicans prior to Dobbs.

[ClemmonsDevil]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/28/polit...ary/index.html

A real issue for DeSantis: he just isn't particularly likeable. He seems to suffer the same issues that Cruz and Scott Walker. Personality just doesn't resonate. If you have to write "Be likeable" at the top of the page on your speech, it's going to be a real problem.

[Section 15]

Reagan was showing some symptoms of early Alzheimer’s during his final year in office, per insider accounts at the time. Much like the right pushes the false narrative of Biden being a vegetable now, the left grossly exaggerated Reagan’s symptoms back then. The most convincing lies usually start with a kernel of truth.

I seriously don't want to drag politics into this, and for that reason I'm deleting what I just wrote.

Apologies to those who might have read what I wrote before this edit.

[budwom]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/28/polit...ary/index.html

A real issue for DeSantis: he just isn't particularly likeable. He seems to suffer the same issues that Cruz and Scott Walker. Personality just doesn't resonate. If you have to write "Be likeable" at the top of the page on your speech, it's going to be a real problem.

yes, even his friends are known to say he is not likeable. The aggrieved thing seemed to have worked for him in Florida, but I do not see him (as you say) resonating.
As I see it, someone other than Trump will mount a good challenge in Iowa or New Hamster, and then Trump will subsequently bludgeon that person. His core following within the GOP is just so much bigger than anyone else's, and his followers still like him.

[bundabergdevil]

yes, even his friends are known to say he is not likeable. The aggrieved thing seemed to have worked for him in Florida, but I do not see him (as you say) resonating.
As I see it, someone other than Trump will mount a good challenge in Iowa or New Hamster, and then Trump will subsequently bludgeon that person. His core following within the GOP is just so much bigger than anyone else's, and his followers still like him.

I don’t think likeability matters all that much given its subjective nature, particularly insofar as how much the person in question is a dick to people with whom you disagree, politically.

[Skydog]

I don’t think likeability matters all that much given its subjective nature, particularly insofar as how much the person in question is a dick to people with whom you disagree, politically.

Likability matters with independents. And independents determine elections.

[Matches]

I seriously don't want to drag politics into this, and for that reason I'm deleting what I just wrote.

Apologies to those who might have read what I wrote before this edit.

I saw the unedited post and did not think it was problematic or argumentative at all. Certainly no offense taken here. Cheers!

[rsvman]

Likability matters with independents. And independents determine elections.

One might be able to mount a cogent argument that likability just might be the most important thing of all. With the number of voters in this country who don't know the faintest thing about policies amd platforms, a great number of voters cast their vote for the person they like.

[dudog84]

Likability matters with independents. And independents determine elections.

One might be able to mount a cogent argument that likability just might be the most important thing of all. With the number of voters in this country who don't know the faintest thing about policies amd platforms, a great number of voters cast their vote for the person they like.

It's over. Shut down the thread. We know who's gonna win. Just ask Lindsey.

[ClemmonsDevil]

It's over. Shut down the thread. We know who's gonna win. Just ask Lindsey.

I miss him.

[budwom]

The more people who enter the GOP race, the better it is for Trump. Keep the opposition fragmented...he must be pleased

[OldPhiKap]

One potential wild card is the possibility that the inevitable indictment in the documents matter will include one or more counts under 18 U.S.C. Section 2071. By its terms, conviction on those charges would disqualify Trump from all future Federal offices. He will likely argue that that provision doesn’t apply to the president, but it will have to be litigated state by state, and he’ll likely lose in a few purple states.

https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2071

There is a good argument that the law is unconstitutional — the Constitution sets the qualifications to run for office (over 35 and born here), and only a constitutional amendment could legally modify that.

Not arguing that’s right or wrong — but I think it is a far from spurious argument.

[tommy]

The more people who enter the GOP race, the better it is for Trump. Keep the opposition fragmented...he must be pleased

Yes and the rest of these candidates know it too. All but pence, DeSantis and Christie are doing this to get the VP spot on trumps ticket.

[bundabergdevil]

It's over. Shut down the thread. We know who's gonna win. Just ask Lindsey.

Setting aside politics, Graham is a POLITICIAN. I can’t believe the things he’s said at different times with outrage and tears. He’s o e of those people that I just, I can’t wrap my head around what it must be like to e them.

[ClemmonsDevil]

Setting aside politics, Graham is a POLITICIAN. I can’t believe the things he’s said at different times with outrage and tears. He’s o e of those people that I just, I can’t wrap my head around what it must be like to e them.

Agreed. He is perhaps the most interesting and consequential senator since Ted Kennedy to me. At least as far as a non majority/minority leader. Have historically been fascinated by his grasp of foreign policy.