2019 Men's Basketball Recruiting

[UrinalCake]

Man, it's been a long time since I've had to think about and feel the emotions of UNC beating us out for a recruit we wanted.

I'm not sure how hard we were going after Bacot towards the end of his recruitment, but he's the first that comes to mind. Some say we had backed off of him with the expectation of landing Carey, Stewart or Hurt.

After that, you have to go back a ways. We recruited Pinson but my understanding is that it was an either/or with him and Justise so we didn't really "miss" on him.

[rsvman]

Harrison Barnes, anyone? Although obviously that ended up working out better for the Cleveland Cavaliers than for anybody else.

[UrinalCake]

Believe it or not Barnes’s commitment happened nine years ago! I’m comfortable with going that long in between losing commits to the CHeats. Strangely, their own fans don’t seem very confident about landing Anthony. Perhaps learned behavior after years of failure.

[DavidBenAkiva]

The Top 10 big man has put his official visit to Duke on hold and will not be traveling to Durham this weekend, according to Evan Daniels of 247 Sports. The high school senior had minor surgery this week and is looking for a better date to take his official visit.

[ChillinDuke]

That's a bottom-half of the ACC and marginal NCAAT team, probably no better than a 10- or 11-seed, hopefully not playing in the "First Four" (assuming we'd even make the tournament, which would be far, far from a lock).

We're spoiled that we've only had one true down year out of the last 35 seasons, but the lineup you're suggesting is not nearly as good as the 2007 lineup, or frankly even the 1995 lineup. I shudder to think of the rank comments we'd have to wade through here on DBR if the above was our rotation.

It's possible, but I'm not as ready to concede that. And we may never even get to that point.

I fully expect AOC and Javin to be strong ACC players at that point. With more than marginal contributions from Bolden, Moore, Goldwire, and Baker, I could see that team being top-half of the ACC.

Luckily, it's unlikely we get to that point. And luckily, we get to see this year first.

- Chillin

[kAzE]

It's possible, but I'm not as ready to concede that. And we may never even get to that point.

I fully expect AOC and Javin to be strong ACC players at that point. With more than marginal contributions from Bolden, Moore, Goldwire, and Baker, I could see that team being top-half of the ACC.

Luckily, it's unlikely we get to that point. And luckily, we get to see this year first.

- Chillin

I think you're really underestimating the ACC. That Duke team would not be a top 25 team. Right now, there's 6 ACC teams ranked in the top 15 on KenPom's preseason rankings, and 8 in the top 25.

That team starring Alex O'Connell and Javin DeLaurier would probably finish 8th or worse in the ACC.

Also, if Bolden is STILL here next year, that's actually not good news IMO, because it would probably mean he had a disappointing junior year. If Bolden plays as well as we need him to play this year to win a national championship, he should do enough to get drafted.

[Kedsy]

It's possible, but I'm not as ready to concede that. And we may never even get to that point.

I fully expect AOC and Javin to be strong ACC players at that point. With more than marginal contributions from Bolden, Moore, Goldwire, and Baker, I could see that team being top-half of the ACC.

Sure AOC and Javin could be strong players, and I assume every Duke rotation player could give more than marginal contributions. We'd have a former #13 recruit in his senior year, a #22 recruit in his freshman season, a #35 recruit in his senior year, a #37 recruit in his sophomore year, a #69 recruit in his junior season, and three possible rotation guys that weren't in the top 200.

But from a talent standpoint, that lineup would be the worst Duke lineup since 1982 (coincidentally, my senior year). In '82 we had first team All-ACC Vince Taylor and sharpshooting Chip Engelland (15+ ppg), along with at least marginal contributions from Emma (a highly regarded recruit in his junior year), Meagher, Tissaw, and McNeely. Similar, but arguably worse than your 2020 lineup. Not that much worse, though, and that team went 10-17 and lost at home to Davidson.

Since then, the worst seasons we've had were: 1983 (11-17), when we had J Dawkins, Alarie, D Henderson, and Bilas, along with Engelland, Meagher, and Emma -- more talented than your lineup, but mostly freshmen; 1995 (13-18), when we had Parks, Capel, Wojo, Collins, Meek, and Price -- better talent than your lineup, but Coach K missed most of the season; and 2007, when we had McRoberts (#1 recruit in his sophomore season), Paulus (#13 recruit in his sophomore season, after having led the ACC in assists as a freshman), Nelson (#18 recruit in his junior season), G Henderson (#10 recruit), Thomas (#20 recruit), Zoubek (#25 recruit), Scheyer (#28 recruit), and McClure (#71 recruit as a redshirt sophomore), as well as Pocius (#53 recruit as a sophomore) and (at this point in the season) Boykin (#60 recruit as a sophomore) -- clearly better and much more talented than your lineup, 6th in the ACC out of 12 teams; a marginal NCAA team, #6-seed, lost in the first round.

I'm not trying to be a downer, but the ACC is a tough league. A Duke team with no top 10 guys, two top 25 guys, two more top 40 guys, and a top 75 guy is not a top half of the ACC sort of team.

Luckily, it's unlikely we get to that point. And luckily, we get to see this year first.

Agreed on both counts. I'm not sweating 2020.

[Natty_B]

Sometimes, maybe a lot of times, the crystal ball isn't that helpful - like when a Duke pick for Carey Jr. is from a rando in 2017. But when all the picks are from the last few days and include a nationally recognized dude, one of your guys and one from the supposed top competition for the recruit - well that seems to be useful CB info (still maybe not THAT useful).

https://247sports.com/PlayerInstitut...rtPredictions/

[UrinalCake]

The Top 10 big man has put his official visit to Duke on hold and will not be traveling to Durham this weekend, according to Evan Daniels of 247 Sports. The high school senior had minor surgery this week and is looking for a better date to take his official visit.

Getting those mandatory injuries out of the way before he suits up for us. Good, good.

[devildeac]

Getting those mandatory injuries out of the way before he suits up for us. Good, good.

It's over.

[arnie]

Sure AOC and Javin could be strong players, and I assume every Duke rotation player could give more than marginal contributions. We'd have a former #13 recruit in his senior year, a #22 recruit in his freshman season, a #35 recruit in his senior year, a #37 recruit in his sophomore year, a #69 recruit in his junior season, and three possible rotation guys that weren't in the top 200.

But from a talent standpoint, that lineup would be the worst Duke lineup since 1982 (coincidentally, my senior year). In '82 we had first team All-ACC Vince Taylor and sharpshooting Chip Engelland (15+ ppg), along with at least marginal contributions from Emma (a highly regarded recruit in his junior year), Meagher, Tissaw, and McNeely. Similar, but arguably worse than your 2020 lineup. Not that much worse, though, and that team went 10-17 and lost at home to Davidson.

Since then, the worst seasons we've had were: 1983 (11-17), when we had J Dawkins, Alarie, D Henderson, and Bilas, along with Engelland, Meagher, and Emma -- more talented than your lineup, but mostly freshmen; 1995 (13-18), when we had Parks, Capel, Wojo, Collins, Meek, and Price -- better talent than your lineup, but Coach K missed most of the season; and 2007, when we had McRoberts (#1 recruit in his sophomore season), Paulus (#13 recruit in his sophomore season, after having led the ACC in assists as a freshman), Nelson (#18 recruit in his junior season), G Henderson (#10 recruit), Thomas (#20 recruit), Zoubek (#25 recruit), Scheyer (#28 recruit), and McClure (#71 recruit as a redshirt sophomore), as well as Pocius (#53 recruit as a sophomore) and (at this point in the season) Boykin (#60 recruit as a sophomore) -- clearly better and much more talented than your lineup, 6th in the ACC out of 12 teams; a marginal NCAA team, #6-seed, lost in the first round.

I'm not trying to be a downer, but the ACC is a tough league. A Duke team with no top 10 guys, two top 25 guys, two more top 40 guys, and a top 75 guy is not a top half of the ACC sort of team.



Agreed on both counts. I'm not sweating 2020.

Kedsy Using your worst case rankings for Duke next year, how would that stack up against similar rankings for all other ACC teams? Our team would have reasonable experience, but would expect most other teams to be similarly experienced. I recognize that’s a lot of data collection, but if you have it and want to share it would be very interesting.

[thedukelamere]

Believe it or not Barnes’s commitment happened nine years ago!

Too soon.

[kAzE]

Too soon.

Really? Are people still upset over this? I'm glad Harrison Barnes didn't pick Duke. He's not even close to as good as he was hyped up to be, and he was probably the biggest reason the Warriors lost to the Cavs in the finals, even more so than the Draymond suspension. Barnes couldn't hit a shot to save his life that series, and he's a below average starter in the league. Sounds like a pretty typical North Carolina player to me.

[Indoor66]

Kedsy Using your worst case rankings for Duke next year, how would that stack up against similar rankings for all other ACC teams? Our team would have reasonable experience, but would expect most other teams to be similarly experienced. I recognize that’s a lot of data collection, but if you have it and want to share it would be very interesting.

Isn't this more than a little premature? We have 1 whole season and active recruiting for at least six more months before ANY of this discussion can have any meaning.

[ChillinDuke]

Sure AOC and Javin could be strong players, and I assume every Duke rotation player could give more than marginal contributions. We'd have a former #13 recruit in his senior year, a #22 recruit in his freshman season, a #35 recruit in his senior year, a #37 recruit in his sophomore year, a #69 recruit in his junior season, and three possible rotation guys that weren't in the top 200.

But from a talent standpoint, that lineup would be the worst Duke lineup since 1982 (coincidentally, my senior year). In '82 we had first team All-ACC Vince Taylor and sharpshooting Chip Engelland (15+ ppg), along with at least marginal contributions from Emma (a highly regarded recruit in his junior year), Meagher, Tissaw, and McNeely. Similar, but arguably worse than your 2020 lineup. Not that much worse, though, and that team went 10-17 and lost at home to Davidson.

Since then, the worst seasons we've had were: 1983 (11-17), when we had J Dawkins, Alarie, D Henderson, and Bilas, along with Engelland, Meagher, and Emma -- more talented than your lineup, but mostly freshmen; 1995 (13-18), when we had Parks, Capel, Wojo, Collins, Meek, and Price -- better talent than your lineup, but Coach K missed most of the season; and 2007, when we had McRoberts (#1 recruit in his sophomore season), Paulus (#13 recruit in his sophomore season, after having led the ACC in assists as a freshman), Nelson (#18 recruit in his junior season), G Henderson (#10 recruit), Thomas (#20 recruit), Zoubek (#25 recruit), Scheyer (#28 recruit), and McClure (#71 recruit as a redshirt sophomore), as well as Pocius (#53 recruit as a sophomore) and (at this point in the season) Boykin (#60 recruit as a sophomore) -- clearly better and much more talented than your lineup, 6th in the ACC out of 12 teams; a marginal NCAA team, #6-seed, lost in the first round.

I'm not trying to be a downer, but the ACC is a tough league. A Duke team with no top 10 guys, two top 25 guys, two more top 40 guys, and a top 75 guy is not a top half of the ACC sort of team.



Agreed on both counts. I'm not sweating 2020.

You may be right. And of course I recognize how difficult the ACC is.

But going purely based on RSCI rankings, wouldn't one also assume last year's UNC team is pretty questionable? I didn't look super deep, but Pinson was a former #15 recruit in his senior year. And Berry #25 as a senior. Other than that, rankings say they had who? Yeah, they got a good transfer and, yeah, Luke Maye was like catching lightning in a bottle. But Kenny Williams was #90. Were Manley and Brooks even rated Top-100? Brandon Robinson was #64 but played only 8.6 mpg. Felton didn't quite get 10 mpg and was #27 and a freshman.

That UNC team was a #2 seed in the Tourney and #4 in the ACC. Granted they lost in the second round of the NCAAT.

I'm sure based on Cam Johnson transfer, Luke Maye's ascension, and having two Top-25 players as seniors, some will dismiss the comparison as apples and oranges. But it doesn't strike me as egregiously different. And that's only UNC. I'm sure there are UVA and other teams that can handle similar recruiting rankings with reasonable success.

I concede that it will be a very different team than we're used to at Duke. And I concede that Duke has very limited data with which to assess such a hypothetical team. But I'm not sure I'm ready to concede that such a hypothetical team "is not top half of the ACC" caliber.

I admit I'd be very nervous. But it can be done, and probably has been done. I'd go so far as to say it probably has been done a lot. Just not at Duke.

- Chillin

[DavidBenAkiva]

You may be right. And of course I recognize how difficult the ACC is.

But going purely based on RSCI rankings, wouldn't one also assume last year's UNC team is pretty questionable? I didn't look super deep, but Pinson was a former #15 recruit in his senior year. And Berry #25 as a senior. Other than that, rankings say they had who? Yeah, they got a good transfer and, yeah, Luke Maye was like catching lightning in a bottle. But Kenny Williams was #90. Were Manley and Brooks even rated Top-100? Brandon Robinson was #64 but played only 8.6 mpg. Felton didn't quite get 10 mpg and was #27 and a freshman.

That UNC team was a #2 seed in the Tourney and #4 in the ACC. Granted they lost in the second round of the NCAAT.

I'm sure based on Cam Johnson transfer, Luke Maye's ascension, and having two Top-25 players as seniors, some will dismiss the comparison as apples and oranges. But it doesn't strike me as egregiously different. And that's only UNC. I'm sure there are UVA and other teams that can handle similar recruiting rankings with reasonable success.

I concede that it will be a very different team than we're used to at Duke. And I concede that Duke has very limited data with which to assess such a hypothetical team. But I'm not sure I'm ready to concede that such a hypothetical team "is not top half of the ACC" caliber.

I admit I'd be very nervous. But it can be done, and probably has been done. I'd go so far as to say it probably has been done a lot. Just not at Duke.

- Chillin

Fun story, Sports Reference recently added RSCI recruiting ranking to their roster profiles. UNC last year had two seniors that were RSCI #15 (Pinson) and #25 (Berry); a junior #90 (Williams); sophomores that were #40 (Woods) and #65 (Robinson); and the freshman #27 (Felton). Luke Maye, Cam Johnson, Garrison Brooks, Sterling Manley and the others were outside of the Top 100. I'm a little shocked that Brooks was outside of the Top 100. I recall him being a higher-rated recruit before he flipped from Missouri to UNC.

Villanova last year had two juniors that were #19 (Brunson) and #96 (Bridges); the junior #84 (Booth); and freshmen that were #17 (Spellman), #45 (Samuels), and #74 (Cosby-Roundtree).

If we are going just based on RSCI, the "worst case" Duke scenario would have seniors that were #11 (Bolden) and #35 (DeLaurier); a junior #69 (O'Connell); one or two sophomores in the Top 100 in Jones and Baker; and at least one freshman in the Top 100 in Moore. The best case scenario would add Ellis (looks likely at this point) and one or two more in the Top 100 between Carey, Hurt, and Stewart. The team would have anywhere from 6 to 9 Top 100 players. Even on that low end, that stacks up with Duke's peer competitors. I share concerns about the ceiling of the team in the worst case scenario, but the floor looks pretty high to me.

[thedukelamere]

Really? Are people still upset over this? I'm glad Harrison Barnes didn't pick Duke. He's not even close to as good as he was hyped up to be, and he was probably the biggest reason the Warriors lost to the Cavs in the finals, even more so than the Draymond suspension. Barnes couldn't hit a shot to save his life that series, and he's a below average starter in the league. Sounds like a pretty typical North Carolina player to me.

Meh, maybe it's just that he was the first big time recruit that I refreshed the ole google machine every day to see all the updates with bated breath. Regardless of what he's done in The League, I'd argue that putting him on the 2011 team might have helped overcome the loss of Kyrie and kept the Cheats from winning the regular season title. Plus we could have definitely used him the next year alongside Austin, even though he would have been OAD if he made the correct decision in the first place

But at the end of the day, everything happens for a reason...

[budwom]

Sometimes, maybe a lot of times, the crystal ball isn't that helpful - like when a Duke pick for Carey Jr. is from a rando in 2017. But when all the picks are from the last few days and include a nationally recognized dude, one of your guys and one from the supposed top competition for the recruit - well that seems to be useful CB info (still maybe not THAT useful).

https://247sports.com/PlayerInstitut...rtPredictions/

yup, Boogie will be joining Bryan Antoine and Josiah James in the Duke Crystal Ball backcourt.

[arnie]

Isn't this more than a little premature? We have 1 whole season and active recruiting for at least six more months before ANY of this discussion can have any meaning.

Of course it’s too premature. I’m pessimistically preparing for the worst and looking at post-K lineup comparisons with rest of ACC😢

[Natty_B]

yup, Boogie will be joining Bryan Antoine and Josiah James in the Duke Crystal Ball backcourt.

In the days before the James announcement the CB picks were bailing on Duke big time. CB might only be valuable in the few days before a pic.