Horse Racing 2020

[DevilHorse]

When you are done betting politics, if you consider betting the Breeder's Cup, this nice cumulative view of the payoffs of races might sway how you bet.
https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...st_payouts_123

Do these bets really represent trends?
Will each race regress to the means for all of the races?
Who knows.

Certainly the second day races, which have been run more often (except for the Juv and Juv Fillies) all seem to have similar average payoffs. Much more variation for the first day races, where there are fewer runnings. Will the Juvenile Turf Sprint favorites be a good bet? Golden Pal is the favorite and he looked like the real deal at Saratoga this summer!!

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

BC is Today.

Juvenile races are at Keeneland on Friday.
There are a few undercard races starting at 11am, but the BC starts with Race 6 (2:30 DST).
The jewel of the day is Race 10 (5:15) with Jackie's Warrior against Essential Quality. There will be other new shooters before Derby Day next year, but these two are the most interesting so far.

On the distaff side, Princess Noor vs. Simply Ravishing in Race 8

BTW, the BC is a no Lasix event!

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

BC is Today.

Juvenile races are at Keeneland on Friday.
There are a few undercard races starting at 11am, but the BC starts with Race 6 (2:30 DST).
The jewel of the day is Race 10 (5:15) with Jackie's Warrior against Essential Quality. There will be other new shooters before Derby Day next year, but these two are the most interesting so far.

On the distaff side, Princess Noor vs. Simply Ravishing in Race 8

BTW, the BC is a no Lasix event!

Larry
DevilHorse

Golden Pal ($3.60) was a monster, as suggested.

Big prices in the minor Stakes (howz $62.40).
Aunt Pearl looks good on the turf and can do no wrong.

Juvenile Fillies went to Vequist, daughter of Nyquist. Nyquist had a stake run that was named after him earlier in the day. This is his first crop, and they are getting better as the year progresses. Nyquist was a rare horse that won the BC 2YO Juvenile and the KY Derby.

The Colt Juvenile went to Essential Quality. The pace was fast and did in Jackie's Warrior (he deserves another chance when he learns his lessons). Essential Quality was 8 lengths off that pace and came from behind to win going away. A gorgeous grey/roan with black trimmings!

Today we start with they Perryville Stakes. A 2YO named Nashville is running. His 2nd outing was an easy 9 length lead. Was considered for the Juvenile, but they elected an easier spot. He will be 1/9.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

Golden Pal ($3.60) was a monster, as suggested.

Big prices in the minor Stakes (howz $62.40).
Aunt Pearl looks good on the turf and can do no wrong.

Juvenile Fillies went to Vequist, daughter of Nyquist. Nyquist had a stake run that was named after him earlier in the day. This is his first crop, and they are getting better as the year progresses. Nyquist was a rare horse that won the BC 2YO Juvenile and the KY Derby.

The Colt Juvenile went to Essential Quality. The pace was fast and did in Jackie's Warrior (he deserves another chance when he learns his lessons). Essential Quality was 8 lengths off that pace and came from behind to win going away. A gorgeous grey/roan with black trimmings!

Today we start with they Perryville Stakes. A 2YO named Nashville is running. His 2nd outing was an easy 9 length lead. Was considered for the Juvenile, but they elected an easier spot. He will be 1/9.

Larry
DevilHorse

Nashville - track record. 1:07 4/5 pulled up. No effort. Could have killed in the BC Sprint. Will be a buzz horse coming out of today. Wow!!! You rarely see 1:08's. Immense talent for this son of Speightstown.

Larry
DevilHorse

[Devilwin]

Authentic, wire to wire! Horse of the year..

















































































































.

[DevilHorse]

Authentic, wire to wire! Horse of the year..

.

Indeed he will be.
The dirt track was lightning fast. Authentic got to the front, used his tactical speed, and pulled away in the stretch over Improbable. Congratulations to the connections.sd

Monomoy Girl finished an undefeated season and beat Swiss Skywalker. Swiss Skywalker almost fell on her face coming out of the gate (which might have thrown her off). Some big prices too today. Lots of fun.

Larry
DevilHorse

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

Indeed he will be.
The dirt track was lightning fast. Authentic got to the front, used his tactical speed, and pulled away in the stretch over Improbable. Congratulations to the connections.sd

Monomoy Girl finished an undefeated season and beat Swiss Skywalker. Swiss Skywalker almost fell on her face coming out of the gate (which might have thrown her off). Some big prices too today. Lots of fun.

Larry
DevilHorse

I have enjoyed reading your posts. Being retired, betting the ponies has been my main recreation this year with COVID-19. Strangely, I am making smaller bets than when I was in law school at UK, but just fun to try and pick winners. I did laugh at your comment on Knicks Go. Aside from Nashville he was my first winner yesterday. I will always think Swiss Skydiver would have run no worse than second but for the bad stumble out of the gate. Authentic’s win seems to confirm that to me. I have never thought Tiz the Law was special. He could,beat the best horses,in New York, but not the best in the rest of the country, so the exacta on the Classic made me a winner for the day.

I had a bad feeling about Duke/UNC so I set the recorder and watched races live, while checking in on the game. I never thought I would have done that, but IT IS 2020!

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

I misspoke, I had Gamine and the exacta before Knicks Go. I still can’t believe the Authentic went of at 4 to 1. He has to be horse of the year.

[DevilHorse]

I have enjoyed reading your posts. Being retired, betting the ponies has been my main recreation this year with COVID-19. Strangely, I am making smaller bets than when I was in law school at UK, but just fun to try and pick winners. I did laugh at your comment on Knicks Go. Aside from Nashville he was my first winner yesterday. I will always think Swiss Skydiver would have run no worse than second but for the bad stumble out of the gate. Authentic’s win seems to confirm that to me. I have never thought Tiz the Law was special. He could,beat the best horses,in New York, but not the best in the rest of the country, so the exacta on the Classic made me a winner for the day.

I had a bad feeling about Duke/UNC so I set the recorder and watched races live, while checking in on the game. I never thought I would have done that, but IT IS 2020!

I liked Knicks Go as a 2YO, but he just didn't get it going earlier this year... Until.. Brad Cox got a hold of him. Then. ROCKET FUEL!!! Did that barn change make a difference. You see that happen in both directions.

Of course, Maximum Security moving to the Baffert barn has an obvious excuse (no longer being given an illegal supplement is the assumption).

I agree that Tiz The Law does not look like the "top dog" that he looked like earlier in the year. But having the KY Derby in sequence would have quashed that talk earlier. But then we don't know if Authentic would have developed that early or if the injured horses would have contributed.

Authentic ran an insane 1:59.0 for the 1 1/4 mile, but that has to be tempered with the knowledge that two track records were set earlier in the day. The track was a concrete racing strip from a speed perspective. Few off the pace wins. You can't compare the Turf because a different surface (obviously) and you can't scrape grass (just less water, which tends to kill grass [I've heard]). Can't take away from Authentic's immense accomplishments this year. Authentic, Swiss Skydiver, and Gamine all had incredible years for their age/gait/gender, although the latter two will cancel each other out in the voting and give the nod to Authentic. Into Mischief is having as good a siring year as any sire since Northern Dancer.

I appreciate the compliment on having this thread. With precious little feedback (other than DevilWin) I wasn't sure as to the value to the group. I'd prefer a little more insight as to what tracks, divisions, areas of the horse world are of interest so I can better engage. I was considering not extending this thread for lack of interest, although I would see some "clicks" on the thread. If people are looking for 'picks' rather than information, that would be information too. A derby rotisserie league might be considered for next year.

Larry
DevilHorse

[Devilwin]

Who are the top two year olds? Need to get ready for next year and my pics.

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

Who are the top two year olds? Need to get ready for next year and my pics.

Aunt Pearl on the grass. I think the other two wear olds will have to prove themselves next year.

I am interested in whether you watched the Kentucky Downs races this year. I thought that was the most fun meet of the year. Up and down, right and left turns was trust fascinating to me. The horses coming out of those races often out ran their odds. I even placed a very small wager on Harvey’s Little Goil, who finished third among the best in the world. While the Kentucky Supreme Court’s decision about the slot machines, oh I’m sorry, “historical horse racing machines,” may screw up the huge purses in the future, I am excited about that meet next year. The purse structure assures the best trainers will bring some of their best grass horses.

One final comment is please keep the thread alive, more people need to look at this sport. With interstate gambling expanding and better television coverage it’s a fun way to pass time.

If you have handicapping tips or betting strategies I for one would be interested. By the way, the NYRA experts’ Breeder’s Cup picks were awful. I think Andy and Paul maybe each had one winner on Saturday. I watched more TVG than NBC so I am not sure how their experts did.

Sorry for this rambling, stream of consciousness reply.

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

Who are the top two year olds? Need to get ready for next year and my pics.

Aunt Pearl on the grass. I think the other two wear olds will have to prove themselves next year.

I am interested in whether you watched the Kentucky Downs races this year. I thought that was the most fun meet of the year. Up and down, right and left turns was trust fascinating to me. The horses coming out of those races often out ran their odds. I even placed a very small wager on Harvey’s Little Goil, who finished third among the best in the world. While the Kentucky Supreme Court’s decision about the slot machines, oh I’m sorry, “historical horse racing machines,” may screw up the huge purses in the future, I am excited about that meet next year. The purse structure assures the best trainers will bring some of their best grass horses.

One final comment is please keep the thread alive, more people need to look at this sport. With interstate gambling expanding and better television coverage it’s a fun way to pass time.

If you have handicapping tips or betting strategies I for one would be interested. By the way, the NYRA experts’ Breeder’s Cup picks were awful. I think Andy and Paul maybe each had one winner on Saturday.

[DevilHorse]

Aunt Pearl on the grass. I think the other two wear olds will have to prove themselves next year.

I am interested in whether you watched the Kentucky Downs races this year. I thought that was the most fun meet of the year. Up and down, right and left turns was trust fascinating to me. The horses coming out of those races often out ran their odds. I even placed a very small wager on Harvey’s Little Goil, who finished third among the best in the world. While the Kentucky Supreme Court’s decision about the slot machines, oh I’m sorry, “historical horse racing machines,” may screw up the huge purses in the future, I am excited about that meet next year. The purse structure assures the best trainers will bring some of their best grass horses.

One final comment is please keep the thread alive, more people need to look at this sport. With interstate gambling expanding and better television coverage it’s a fun way to pass time.

If you have handicapping tips or betting strategies I for one would be interested. By the way, the NYRA experts’ Breeder’s Cup picks were awful. I think Andy and Paul maybe each had one winner on Saturday.

I watch the TVG and NYRA "Day at the Races" as well. They give a buffet of standard handicapping choices. As a wise person once said to me ironically, "That's the great thing about standards, there are so many to choose from." ;^p If you consider betting and watching, do consider downloading the TVG App; I find it really useful. Can track the live odds, and watch any race live. They have some free contests too (I have made a little scratch on them and it encourages me to handicap a few races, and learn some horses, that I otherwise would not). And I don't have to miss a race at weddings and bar mitzvahs!

I hoped that I have been talking about the top 2YOs throughout the season in this thread, but just to reiterate.

At Del Mar, Dr. Shivel was the undisputed top horse. He changed owners/barns after being undefeated. Spielberg chased him all year and just broke his maiden last week (incredible); but you never know. Sometimes you see horses that have won hundreds of thousands of dollars that run in maiden races and you wonder "how?". High priced horse could develop. Lady's Secret was a stone cold "run till you drop" horse as a 2YO; won a few and lost a few (to Mom's Command no less). But got good in the middle of her 3YO year and dazzled till 4YO and then went nuts (bolted a few times). Small horse, immense talent, just developed over time.
Jackie's Warrior got caught in a very fast pace in the BC Juvenile; I would not discount as a 3YO. Essential Quality, the BC Juvenile winner has 3 crosses to Secretariat, through 3 different super sires, and will be your winterbook favorite for the KY Derby. Only one white hoof if that is important to you. Of course 2/3 of the top 3YO may have yet to start. Nice win by Pickin' Time in the Nashua at Aqueduct on Sunday; big leggy Stay Thirsty colt.

For the fillies, Princess Noor may have also gotten caught in the pace. The BC Juvenile races are nuts. Simply Ravishing had a bad start. Vequist looked great winning. Dayattheoffice was out to lunch, but is very good.

With you on Aunt Pearl. I hope she doesn't suffer the same sophomore jinx that Newspaperofrecord did. Aunt Pearl looks a bit more sensible in the head. I think all of these different turf races for 2YO is a bit much; but, it sells tickets.

I did not watch too many of the Kentucky Downs races this year. Although the money was big, I thought the quality of the horses wasn't up to the purses. I'm not as big of a turf guy as a dirt guy. But I do love Harvey's Lil Goil!! Great back story.

Here's a few tips that I use when handicapping:

"Not a person alive has paid the bills at 1 to 5": Basically true. If a horse is an overwelming favorite, it is tough to pick it at really low odds. The only time I would bet it is if a race was a "set up" for a good horse. For example, the first time Monomoy Girl raced this year (after a 1.5 year lay-off) they created a race for her; (see next tip for the type) she was probably out of shape, but needed a race before taking on stakes company. But class almost always trumps (sorry) fitness. I bet her at 1/5 and she won by 4 easily. I'm not a bridgejumper. Although I have done the opposite of bridge jumping (bet every horse to come in other than the BIG HORSE, in the overloaded pool; great fun).

Look for value in "Optional Claiming" races. These are races that are allowance races, but people can try to sell their horses in there. It is a real mix of very good horses with throw aways. You can find some lesser stakes horses (drop outs from the KY Derby trail) with regular claimers (losers) and iffy horses. You can find prices here.

Every spring there are coming out races for the top colts and fillies. They rarely come out in the same race. With TVG and the internet, find a few twitter guys to follow, or the DRF.com website and find these top 20 horses. You can get even odds on horses that are still overlays. Don't bet your shirt, but by managing your money, you can turn a profit.

Pick your races, and become a friend of Briswatch so you can pick up any race's PPs that you want for free. It takes a little work, but it can be done for 95% of the races.

Larry
DevilHorse

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

Thanks for the info. Although I lived in Kentucky most of my life, now retired in Tennessee. Can’t bet on my TVG account here. So I’ve been on Twinspires. Looking forward to next spring.

[DevilHorse]

Thanks for the info. Although I lived in Kentucky most of my life, now retired in Tennessee. Can’t bet on my TVG account here. So I’ve been on Twinspires. Looking forward to next spring.

I am foremost a racing fan, breeding wonk, and history buff; I don't own any horses at the moment, but my brother does. I watch many many more races than I bet. My guess is that you could put $2 into TVG account and watch all of the races you want, play the contests, and never have to bet (I did that initially before I indulged initially).
Many racetracks have live feeds.
I have to bet on NJBets variation of TVG (a monopoly with restrictions within our state.. ).

There is also TVG2 (if you don't have that also); I use it occassionally, but the TVG app works good enough for me. Also covers standardbreds (a passion for me).
Monmouth is my home T-Bred track). Grew up in New York State and frequented Belmont, Aqueduct, and occasionally Saratoga.

I presume you are a T-Bred guy.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

Authentic has been retired to Spendthrift farm to stand next to his sire Into Mischief.

Swiss Skywalker is OK after her tough start in the BC, and will return to racing next year.

Monomoy Girl was sold for $9.5M at Auction after her win and will race again next year.

Here is a nice article for DevilWin on contenders for next year's KY Derby. Of course, as noted, I'm sure there will be many new names to appear:
https://www.horseracingnation.com/p/...021_Contenders

Here is a list of the KY Oaks contenders:
https://www.horseracingnation.com/p/...s_2021_Fillies

Mark December 26 on your calendars for a post Christmas present. Charlatan is pointed for his return to racing in the 7f Malibu stakes. And who should he be expected to run against? The fastest horse in the world, Nashville.

Uncle Chuck will be back in training too.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

A few tidbits:

Maximum Security has been retired. Not really a surprise. He is not the horse that he once was, even with the magical hands of Bob Baffert, this horse is not the elite monster that he was under Servis. Although he is certainly deserving of a stud career.

Here are a couple of articles relative to 2YOs, pointing toward the Kentucky Derby next year. Do you really need the odds for next year?
https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...eeders_Cup_123

https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...uture_Odds_123

I did notice that the stallion Violence has 4 sons in the top 20 rankings, which is quite impressive for this young stallion. He was more of a sprinter, and is finding success being bred to Classic distance sires. However, this is a sire with 6 crops and he has 2 G1 stakes winners to date. I'd be surprised if he sires Classic distance horses, even though he could sire a few early KY Derby prep winners.
The same general idea goes for Frosted as a sire.

Even though Into Mischief had the great Authentic this year, you wonder when his next Classic winner will appear. He throws so many top horses. You knew that one of his freaks would go long enough to win a classic, but I won't drink the kool aid and think that the dam is broken.

What follows is a list of interesting races coming up in the coming months:
https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...ng_in_2020_123


Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

I don't know how much interest there is in this, but here is an article relating to the further investigation of the drugging scandal that brought down a couple of dozen trainers, including Jason Servis who trained Maximum Security:
https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.co...buterol-at-77/

The research was done by Scott Palmer. I happen to have crossed paths with Dr. Palmer several times. He started off with his clinic in central New Jersey (where I visited), where he operated on a couple of our horses. A very nice and super competent surgeon and diagnostician. He later expanded his practice to a facility across the street from Belmont Racetrack.

Larry
DevilHorse

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

Thanks for the continued feed of information. One of my favorites for the Derby was the hard luck horse Maxfield. Do you know if he is still in training? If so any guess as to his next start?

[DevilHorse]

Thanks for the continued feed of information. One of my favorites for the Derby was the hard luck horse Maxfield. Do you know if he is still in training? If so any guess as to his next start?

TDMMDI,

I did see a workout for Maxfield just before the BC, so I think that he is on the way back. No word on a target race. Yes, he is an interesting horse with a wicked brush. I have him in my alert list so I'll be sure to announce any next race for him in this forum (although probably a new title for 2021).

Larry
DevilHorse