End of Season thoughts.

[FewFAC]

this team has "serious defensive deficiencies?" other than paulus, what are they? this is one of the top defensive teams in the country and is on pace set a duke record for least ppg against.

I probably overstated that a bit, but I could make a really strong case as to why the defensive deficiencies at the 1G have created such inordinate strain on the defense as to affect the offense in such a way that the coaching staff opted for a slow-down, half-court offense to reduce defensive possessions as a method of managing the deficiencies.

While the defensive stats are nice, they are also quite easily manipulated.

[dukeisawesome]

I was thinking about it today and this season wasn't all that bad. First off, I will say I have high expectations and I don't really see the point in making excuses. Coach K has built the best program in the country at Duke and, no we shouldn't take it for granted, but nor should we be happy about "average" seasons.

We had 9 losses if I'm not forgetting any. Eight were in conference and 7 out of those 8 came to teams seeded ahead of us who you would expect to make the NCAA tournament. FSU was our only bad loss. Then, out of conference we lost to #20 Marquette. If you look at both polls, 7 out of 9 of the games we lost, the team is currently ranked in one poll or the other. So, FSU and GT are the only un-ranked teams we lost to. Then, also consider we beat #20 Air Force and #10 Georgetown.

So those are the facts. It's not a great season cause we did lose 9 games, but it's not all bad either. This actually surprised me looking at the full picture. Our offense looked inept at times early in the season, yet even playing as poor as we have by Duke standards, we are still not a bad team. And, we're certainly better now than we were early in the season.

Our major weaknesses from my perspective are lack of penetration from the point guard position, lack of an inside game, and lack of quickness. Gerald Henderson is quickly becoming a great wing player, Scheyer and Paulus are solid three point threats, and we play good team defense. The lack of quickness and penetration could easily be solved next year if Nolan Smith pans out, but I think we definitely need someone who can help Paulus out against quicker guards. An inside game probably isn't going to happen for us anytime soon, but most teams don't have that. It's unfortunate that McRoberts is such a disappointment and doesn't seem to be improving.

I think if this team can avoid quicker guards in the tournament, we could make a run, but even if we don't, at least things aren't so bleak as they sometimes appeared this season.

Also, just wanted to add that I think Coach K needs to re-think the recruiting strategy a bit. I think part of the reason we are lacking athleticism is K is shying away from the super athletic players who might leave early based on potential. I think the program might need to sacrifice some 4-year players to get some top notch athletes. Also I had a horrible thought today that GH could decide to go pro if he wants too, but I really hope he doesn't.

[ice-9]

On balance, it's not a bad season but not a good one either. Our RPI rating is high for a good reason; we beat some good teams and lost to only good teams. The season could have gone a lot worse -- i.e. I would consider finishing out of the top 25 as a major disappointment -- and it certainly could have gone better.

For me, the major disappointments are
- McRoberts not being a force offensively, and occasionally making bad decisions
- Paulus' inability to penetrate or defend against athletic point guards
- McClure's and Thomas' inability to consistently finish strong around the basket
- Nelson not developing more savvy -- sometimes I'll be amazed by his athleticism and other times I'm cursing at the TV for his mistakes
- Not much visible development from Zoubek or Pocius
- Agonizing team turnovers
- Poor free throw shooting

Turnovers and poor free throw shooting are particularly hard to swallow. High turnover is usually a sign of a team that is not well coached or a team that is low on basketball IQ. As for free throw shooting...there's no reason for this team to be bad at it, especially for Nelson and McRoberts.

For me the major positives of the regular season are
- Good win-loss record despite the challenging schedule--the losses at FSU, Vtech, and UVA could have easily gone the other way and we beat a lot of good teams this year
- Good overall team defense
- Consistent effort
- Paulus becoming an offensive threat in the second half of the season
- Thomas, McClure and Scheyer becoming solid contributors
- It's too early to tell whether Henderson's recent assertiveness and success on the offensive end is temporary or permanent but it's looking good these past few games

I think people are disappointed because for the first time in a long time, this Duke team is clearly not among the nation's elite. Even if we played UNC ten times, one gets the feeling we'd be lucky to win two or three games. Personally I think we will overachieve this year if we get past the Sweet 16.

In looking to next season on McRoberts and Paulus:

- McRoberts will not go pro. The draft next year is going to be very strong, and McRoberts' draft stock no doubt has slid a lot. McRoberts' best chance for a high draft pick is to work hard this summer on developing a post game and reliable mid-range jumper and dominating the hell out of everyone next year. I am worried though because for long stretches during many games this season he can be the weakest link--for example, in the first half against UNC he was awful and single-handedly handicapped the team's offense. The loss at Marquette is another example. What will Coach K do next year when there will be alternatives to go to? What if Henderson becomes a stud? Will Coach K keep starting McRoberts even when it's obvious he's not deserving? If McRoberts doesn't improve significantly over the summer, would he have the playing time necessary to prove that he is worthy of a high draft pick?

- Paulus will definitely start next season and will likely start at the end of the season -- as long as he continues to shoot the way he's been shooting. Paulus has fantastic court vision but his main problem is that he isn't able to blow by a long defender. He usually needs a screen and even then athletic defenders are still able to get by and get in his face. But when Paulus is able to shoot the way he shoots, that opens things up for him. So I'm not that worried about Paulus, and there's no pure point in next year's class anyway.

I actually agree that Coach K should rethink his recruiting strategy. I think many of his principles -- man-to-man defense, overplaying passing lanes, help defense, fewer players getting more minutes, motion offense, etc. -- rely on superior talent. By superior talent I mean a combination of athleticism, basketball IQ, shooting, etc. The problem is that superior talent nowadays go to the NBA or go to schools like Texas and Memphis. The talent that Duke has been recruiting, while good, aren't particularly superior compared to those of other top schools. So I think one of the critical conditions that have made Duke so successful in the 80s and 90s no longer exists today.

[VaDukie]

The only problem K has with recruiting is that over a two year period, the 5 players he signed have been largely MIA.

Humphries - transferred after signing
Livingston - goes pro after signing
Deng - goes pro after one season
Nelson - hurt most of first two years
McClure - hurt second year

There's no problem this Duke team has that more veteran play wouldn't solve. We're taking bumps this year but the future looks very bright.

[johnnydakota]

Constantstrain81 is spot on. Neither Thornton nor Dudley has had to be a press breaker, direct the offense, or be the only real post defender. Josh is second in the conference in rebounding and blocks, in addition to the ball handling and passing. His scoring has dropped off only in the last couple of weeks. Gee, maybe 37 minutes per game, with all of those jobs, has worn on him. Some fellow Duke fans just want someone to blame, and when they do, they really pile it on. As was stated, until recently Josh was spectacular, including scoring double figures in 15 of 16 straight. Unfortunately, it's often what have you done for me lately. Don't forget, last year Josh was awesome in both the ACC and NCAA tourneys. Remember to give back the credit if that happens again.

[devildownunder]

I probably overstated that a bit, but I could make a really strong case as to why the defensive deficiencies at the 1G have created such inordinate strain on the defense as to affect the offense in such a way that the coaching staff opted for a slow-down, half-court offense to reduce defensive possessions as a method of managing the deficiencies.

While the defensive stats are nice, they are also quite easily manipulated.

there is some truth in this. I've always thought that average margin of victory, shooting percentage and percentage of possessions that result in points (or points per possession to weight 3pt/2pt/fts differently) were more effective barometers of defensive production than points allowed.

I'm waaaay too lazy to crunch those numbers. Anyone have them handy?

[jimbonelson]

Also With Coach Ks Recruiting We Lost Boteng And Boykins Via Them Not Getting Enough Playing Time And Sickness. I Dont Think Either Of These Two Would Have Became Superstars But They Both Played As Freshman And Would Have Been A Big Help This Year

[FewFAC]

there is some truth in this. I've always thought that average margin of victory, shooting percentage and percentage of possessions that result in points (or points per possession to weight 3pt/2pt/fts differently) were more effective barometers of defensive production than points allowed.

I'm waaaay too lazy to crunch those numbers. Anyone have them handy?

I am not exactly a Pomeroy fan, but the tempo-free stats are as good as any. Maybe the goduke stats cover all the basics too.

[dukemsu]

As I look back at the season, I find myself remembering the flashes of brilliance we've seen (G's offense yesterday, the major improvement in rebounding, the overall sound defensive effort) and trying to forget the frustrations (the alarmingly inconsistent FT shooting, Josh's up and down play, and all the other symptoms of a painfully young and inexperienced team).

The seeds of a really strong team are there. A lot has to go right (Lance and Zou getting stronger, Greg being totally healthy, Singler being an at least Dunleavy as Freshman contributor) but this could be a really good team next year. But this thread's about this year-and it's not over yet!

dukemsu

[Dukefan4Life]

As the year comes to a close a few things stand out in my mine. first we need a stopper in the back court! a guy who can defend the PG spot and not get burnt alot of the time! I am hoping the addition of NS next year will be the guy to do that, we also need a goto guy! a guy who we can count on taking the shot when we need it! right now we just dont have that guy! i think singler could be that guy! I sure hope we land PP i hear he is a killer on the boards and will provide us with some inside scoring! I think next year we will be a better all around team, still young but better than this years team

[DukieUGA]

i think that Duke can be extremely good next year. Imagine if everybody improves as much from this year to next as they did from last year to this year. Since Duke loses no one this year to the graduation (assuming Josh doesn't go insane and declare for the draft) improvement from this group alone would put Duke high atop the most of the competition. Add in some nice recruits and i see no reason why Duke wouldn't be a legit Final Four contender.
As i've noted in other places 4 of the guys need to add substantial amounts of weight through muscle: Zoubek - 15-20 lbs; Thomas 15-20 lbs, McClure ~10 lbs; McRoberts ~10 lbs. I don't think McRoberts should or would want to gain a whole lot of weight but he does need some more power in his legs to establish lower in the post but he would lose some quickness and agility if he were to gain lots of upper body weight. Paulus, Nelson, Henderson and Scheyer should all work to improve their ball-handling. Nelson, McClure, McRoberts and Thomas need to seriously improve their shooting form, especially from the FT line. Z, LT, McClure and McRoberts need to develop better inside moves and presence on the offensive side as well. There's lots of things to work on, probably no more than in most years. But the bright side is that everyone COULD be back, and probably should be back, so as each individual improves their game, it should improve the collective team game as well.
This year ain't over yet and it'll be interesting to see if these guys can muster some internal fire and really excede expectations in the tournaments. I think that a pair of solid showings in the ACC and NCAA tourneys that fall just short of being truly exceptional will be a strong motivator for this group's off-season program. If they continue to play in the tourneys as they have lately, they'll be fine, but i wonder if that would really put the fire in them that they need to improve dramatically over the summer.