PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[rsvman]

What's your criteria?

And I think I need to clarify - I meant excess all cause mortality.

I don't think there will ever be a time again in our lifetimes that there isn't excess mortality due to Covid. I would love to be wrong.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Board is salty tonight.

[Bostondevil]

I don't think there will ever be a time again in our lifetimes that there isn't excess mortality due to Covid. I would love to be wrong.

I do, but that's because I think covid will replace something else. In any given year, people that used to die of the flu or heart disease, for example, will die of covid instead. I think that the 2024 numbers will return to an observed mortality rates being nearly equal to the pre-pandemic expected mortality rates.

As always - we will see.

[Bostondevil]

Board is salty tonight.

I'll take credit. I'm extra salty tonight. Maybe it's blame I should take.

[Jeffrey]

I do, but that's because I think covid will replace something else. In any given year, people that used to die of the flu or heart disease, for example, will die of covid instead. I think that the 2024 numbers will return to an observed mortality rates being nearly equal to the pre-pandemic expected mortality rates.

What do you think will change in 2024 for us to finally return to pre-pandemic expected mortality rates?

[MChambers]

I do, but that's because I think covid will replace something else. In any given year, people that used to die of the flu or heart disease, for example, will die of covid instead. I think that the 2024 numbers will return to an observed mortality rates being nearly equal to the pre-pandemic expected mortality rates.

As always - we will see.

But what about the folks who die of other things. like heart disease, where the incidence of that disease has been increased by a prior covid infection? Will we even know the role of covid?

[Kdogg]

I do, but that's because I think covid will replace something else. In any given year, people that used to die of the flu or heart disease, for example, will die of covid instead. I think that the 2024 numbers will return to an observed mortality rates being nearly equal to the pre-pandemic expected mortality rates.

As always - we will see.

Isn't it possible, maybe probable, that Covid will always be an additional wave rather than a replacement wave. In September and October we saw an unprecedented early flu wave. In one regard, it was out competing Covid for victims. Those that recovered will be potential Covid targets later in the winter. I guess I'm asking, even if morbidity increases is it possible that mortality can go back to pre-pandemic? Would the best case scenario have Covid and the flu peek at the same time? I guess the answer is as you said - we will see.

[sciencegeek]

I wonder what China is doing/did to keep their total death rate in their whole country, during this whole pandemic to less than 6,000 deaths. It's not because they wear masks, or are used to pandemics and social distanced and cleaned their hands, they did something else. Do I believe the WHO data? Chuckle. But seriously, maybe they should share their secret to success since they basically screwed over the whole world with COVID. No one is talking about the fact that China has less than 6,000 deaths, most people have never even heard this reported fact. It is time for China to pay reparations to the rest of the world, since they created the virus in the Wuhan Lab using gain of function research, have basically been unaffected as a country, and now are cranking production of China-made goods, while the rest of the world suffers to get back to normal, and the supply chain is horrible. Here is the link to the data on China, it is maddening:

https://covid19.who.int/region/wpro/country/cn

Nearly one year ago, the data showed that China had less than 6,000 deaths, per the WHO. I find the data interesting that less than one year later, as of today, that China now has 29,838 deaths due to Covid 19. As a scientist, I like to follow and trend the data that the WHO provides. Will continue to track and trend the data. On another note, as of today, the USA has 1,067,123 deaths.

https://covid19.who.int/region/wpro/country/cn

https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us

[budwom]

I think it's been established that the WHO is utterly intimidated by the Chinese. At the beginning of the pandemic, the WHO was saying nice things publicly about China, but was bitterly complaining internally about Chinese data and cooperation.

I have no idea where one can find credible Chinese numbers.

[Rich]

I have no idea where one can find credible Chinese numbers.

81AAa-+QdvL.jpg

[budwom]

81AAa-+QdvL.jpg

can I get that at the Dollar Store?

[Bostondevil]

But what about the folks who die of other things. like heart disease, where the incidence of that disease has been increased by a prior covid infection? Will we even know the role of covid?

I'm not talking about the long term changes caused by covid though, I'm talking about the pandemic being over. Covid and it's lasting effects are never going away. Pandemic conditions eventually will.

[sciencegeek]

can I get that at the Dollar Store?

Yep, from dollar store.. Made in ____.

[sagegrouse]

More people, more mobility of the population, more second and third and fourth infections, and a population that has more high-risk individuals than any population in history, perhaps? So many possibilities, and nobody really knows.

What's not comparable with the 1918 flu pandemic is the relative paucity of data then and, at the federal level, the very small size of public health entities. So, IMHO (in which the H was quickly eliminated), comparing the length of the 1918 flu pandemic then with the COVID pandemic now is a very speculative business.

[camion]

What's not comparable with the 1918 flu pandemic is the relative paucity of data then and, at the federal level, the very small size of public health entities. So, IMHO (in which the H was quickly eliminated), comparing the length of the 1918 flu pandemic then with the COVID pandemic now is a very speculative business.

Perfect for debating on the interwebs.

[MChambers]

Pre-print out on coronaviruses discovered in a province in China, including one that might be as contagious as covid, and as deadly as SARS. Yikes!

"Of note, we identified five viral species that are likely to be pathogenic to humans or livestock, including a novel recombinant SARS-like coronavirus that is closely related to both SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV, with only five amino acid differences between its receptor-binding domain sequence and that of the earliest sequences of SARS-CoV-2. Functional analysis predicts that this recombinant coronavirus can utilize the human ACE2 receptor such that it is likely to be of high zoonotic risk. Our study highlights the common occurrence of inter-species transmission and co-infection of bat viruses, as well as their implications for virus emergence."

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...11.23.517609v1

[sciencegeek]

Will be interesting to see how Communist China handles the Covid lockdown protests that are sweeping across China. Lets see if peaceful protesting works twith the Communist regime. Many people there want a democracy, and have reached a breaking point. Peaceful protests are part of democratic society.

[budwom]

Will be interesting to see how Communist China handles the Covid lockdown protests that are sweeping across China. Lets see if peaceful protesting works twith the Communist regime. Many people there want a democracy, and have reached a breaking point. Peaceful protests are part of democratic society.

I agree, though I chuckle at the notion of "communist" China. That ship sailed a long time ago...Totalitarian to be sure, but not much communism going on these days..

[Kdogg]

Will be interesting to see how Communist China handles the Covid lockdown protests that are sweeping across China. Lets see if peaceful protesting works twith the Communist regime. Many people there want a democracy, and have reached a breaking point. Peaceful protests are part of democratic society.

The Chinese government is built to handle almost any level of protest. Their biggest problem is their low vaccination rate with an inferior domestically produced vaccine. It's by far the least effective vaccine available even behind the Russian one. They are between a rock and a hard place. If they lift restrictions too much, Covid is going to run roughshod over the population. Even if the prevalent strain is less deadly and there are more treatment options, hundreds of thousands if not millions of people (mainly elderly) will die. If they continue with zero Covid they risk domestic unrest.

[Bluedog]

The Chinese government is built to handle almost any level of protest. Their biggest problem is their low vaccination rate with an inferior domestically produced vaccine. It's by far the least effective vaccine available even behind the Russian one. They are between a rock and a hard place. If they lift restrictions too much, Covid is going to run roughshod over the population. Even if the prevalent strain is less deadly and there are more treatment options, hundreds of thousands if not millions of people (mainly elderly) will die. If they continue with zero Covid they risk domestic unrest.

I find it bizarre that given the near-universal masking, people aren't getting vaccinated. I'd think getting a shot once is much less of an impact than masking for every waking second. And, as you say, it's an inferior product offered anyways. They were supposed to finally approve BioNTech's mRNA vaccine (Pfizer for us) but only for foreigners living in Mainland China. What sense does that make? Too much national pride apparently in shunning foreign desired/manufactured products.