Free throw shooting % is my biggest concern. I long for the days of 75% and higher for the team.
I definitely think Carey will be better than okay and be in Carter’s overall league. It appears D has been the strong initial focus and feeding Carey will be addressed later.
I’m glad he’s not Okafor. Okafor’s D was pathetic and would have materially hurt this team’s level of D.
Lots of little positives to take from the game. If our ultimate goal is to show steady improvement across our balanced roster throughout the course of the season, then this game was one encouraging step. Tre has established the short pull-up jumper and is getting pretty comfortable with it, which is nice to have in his arsenal. I know midrange shots are bad according to the analytics, but for him I feel it’s often a better shot than trying to get all the way to the rim (which he also did pretty effectively). Love Alex’s play, we tend to focus on his threes but he is attacking the basket and making good decisions with the ball. Last season he often went for flashy behind-the-back type stuff but this season he has been much more fundamentally sound.
Stanley continues to impress, I saw on another site someone mentioned that Boogie Ellis made six three in the first half of their game, While it would be great to have that kind of shooting, I think Stanley fits the DNA of this team much better so I’m glad we ended up with him instead.
Javin didn’t have a great game but he did have a couple nice plays so that was good. Overall I think our team is focusing so much on defense that our offensive flow has suffered, but that’s ok at this point in the season and preferable over the reverse being true. It felt to me while watching the game that we were being kind of loose with the ball, but our turnover stats disagree so I won’t worry about that.
Let me rephrase - I long for the days when the team had 3-4 knock down free throw shooters, 80-85%. Money from the line. You knew when Grayson or Luke, Quinn or Tyus went to the line they were going to make it. Back in the day - Christian or Bobby. I don't think we've had that the last couple of years. Seems like free throws are an adventure...
A very nice step (game) on this year's journey.
I didn't see a single player on the roster that I thought looks particularly unqualified to play. Everyone seems reasonably playable (pre-Buckmire on the pecking order. There depth is important when inevitably some guys miss time.
People talking about this team having future nailbiters. Duhhh. That's a given in any season, even last season, multiple times. So I'm not sure why we should pay heightened attention to that this season. The team is good but it's incredibly rare to have a transcendent team just crush almost everyone in their path. I actually welcome the early indications that this is a balanced and versatile, if skill-wise still unclear, team.
Tre has yet to hit a 3 through 4 games (including preseason). That's not good. And something I really don't like seeing. But other than that he's been largely what we hoped for. It all starts with him on both sides.
Cassius and AOC are the two players surprising to the upside thus far for me. And in different ways. Which is awesome to see. It's early but I very much have my eye on them.
I'm not worried about Carey or Hurt. They look solid already and will only get better. I actually like that they aren't black holes and are being selective with their shots. It seems having Javin and White gives them a leash that to my eye appears helpful in tempering their zeal. I think we will increase their usage (and our reliance on them) as we go. But easing in freshman bigs is a welcome luxury.
Moore is looking a little like early Tatum or early Reddish to me. Forcing at times and the ball is sticking. The question is which trajectory he stays on. Could be the most important question of all, if it plays out in such a binary we. (Spoiler: it won't.)
Goldwire is still a nice backup to have. I have no issue with him playing minutes nightly and potentially increased minutes in an injury scenario. He's fine out there. People expecting big things or big offense or heavy usage from him are in la la land.
Baker is still a question mark. I want to say he looks fine out there, but that's being slightly generous. Need to see a bit more out of him against a team that isn't CSU facing a 30-point deficit.
Duke's 3pt shooting is of concern at the moment. But I will remind everyone that the 3pt line moved from 20'9" to 22'1.75" this season, a not insignificant increase. I imagine 3pt% has fallen nationwide (although I've done no research on the matter). Nonetheless we need to convert at a better clip, but I am taking some solace in the assumption that everyone is dealing with some lower percentages. Hopefully.
A lot to like. Keep building.
- Chillin
I'm pretty optimistic at this point that we're going to keep him for another year. So far, Cassius has shown to be a good defender and a guy who can take it to the bucket and finish, but his offense would have to expand for me to become concerned* about him leaving. The most logical reason why he's reluctant to shoot from outside is because he can't shoot, and so where does an athletic but non-shooting wing without point guard skills go? Probably not even the high second-round, imo.
* To be clear, if Cassius all of a sudden shows that he's a good shooter, I'd be elated because it would improve our chances at a national title.
Most likely, Boogie and Cassius would be starting together alongside Tre, imo. Duke did want them both and for a short time, we did have them both committed. Boogie's shooting would've been awesome to add to this team.
Both 3-pt shooting and offensive rebounding will increase from current levels. That said, I'm as dubious of this team becoming very good at offensive rebounding as you are of it becoming very good at shooting 3s. I mean, afterall, we're going to play a lot of three guards and a stretch 4 (by definition someone who's outside the paint more often than a non-shooting 4), so I think being average at O-rebounding is what I'd expect.
That does raise an interesting stat nerd question. Which of the "4 Factors" can we expect to be really good at offensively? What's the pathway to being a top-10 offense at the end of the season?
Posted this in another thread. I was at the game Friday night and had the opportunity to watch the guys in shoot around. Stanley has a very nice looking outside stroke. Perfect form. His misses were good misses landing softly on the rim. Teams have to respect his driving ability, so I think he’s got the potential to lead this team in scoring if he can start knocking down 3s.
Unfortunately, someone else who was at the game reported that Tre looks great shooting in shootaround. I'm sure Jack White looks great in shootaround, too. It's just different in game conditions, as you know.
I'm skeptical. As recently as the summer of 2018, Cassius was 59.8% on FTs and 25.6% on 3s in EYBL (with a shorter 3-pt line, to boot). The good news is that he had a lot of FT attempts.
Actually I didn't think Tre or Jack or Wendell looked good in shoot around from 3. Unorthodox mechanics - not always good rotation on the ball. All the great shooters - at Duke this includes guys like Reddick and Trajan Langdon and Andre Dawkins - all release the ball with one hand, with a tucked elbow and with good rotation on the ball - just like Stanley (and like AOC and Joey Baker Beard). I'm really shocked at those EYBL numbers based on what I watched. Just one man's observation...
Nice review.
I want to highlight a few points:
-Tre is an atrocious 3pt shooter. In four games, he's 0-13. Hell, if he made 2-13, it would still be very bad. I think we have to accept this is the only negative part of Tre's game. He's really good-to-great at nearly everything else (mid-range, driving, ball protection, steals, defense, passing, etc). But he is downright awful at 3pt shooting. Which means he needs teammates who can shoot.
-And speaking of shooting, I love the starting line-up. It's balanced and could only be achieved if a) AOC improved greatly from sophomore to junior year (check) and b) Stanley is better than advertised (check). AOC is our best 3pt shooter, and I don't think it's close at this point. Stanley is an opportunist and looks to be an okay 3pt shooter (and maybe even good). Hurt and Carey aren't as productive as advertised, but I think it will just take a little time.
-Our "core" rotation looks to be Tre, AOC, Stanley, Hurt, Carey, White, Javin, and Moore. Goldwire and, to a lesser extent, Baker are in there right now, but I think the more Goldwire and Baker play, the lower our ceiling will be. Goldwire is a very, very one dimensional player (one ball defense) and Baker is a shooter with a bunch of liabilities. The more they play, the more the "core's" defense and/or shooting is really, really struggling.
Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill
President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club