2022 Midterm Election thread

[ClemmonsDevil]

I am registered independent in NC. So I can vote in either primary. I changed parties to vote for Kasich.

I was an independent and voted independent (70-30 one way generally) until 2015. Then I affiliated.

[bundabergdevil]

I was an independent and voted independent (70-30 one way generally) until 2015. Then I affiliated.

I was a registered independent until 2017. And,as I’ve said, worked for Republicans in the proto-tea party movement for a few years in the early 00s.

[dudog84]

I recognize that most voters are irrevocably committed to a specific party or to certain candidates long before the ballots are cast. But I've seen enough significant "October surprises" or "11th-hour plot twists" in my lifetime to be wary of relinquishing the right to exercise my independent judgment until I can assess the facts as they appear when the time comes to choose. Considering the current prominence of the economy in the minds of so many, for example, I wonder whether some of the "persuadables" who voted early based on a sense of pessimism might have felt more encouraged by the significant recent uptick in the financial markets and today's news about the direction of the GDP and inflation trends.

Is the Pelosi attack your October surprise? Or completely irrelevant?

Serious question since you seem to be the rare undecided voter. Usually we expect the October surprise to be the dirty laundry of a candidate, and therefore specific to a certain race. So is this the rare instance that cuts across all political boundaries? I understand you can only speak for yourself but it might provide some insight for the rest of us.

[bundabergdevil]

Is the Pelosi attack your October surprise? Or completely irrelevant?

Serious question since you seem to be the rare undecided voter. Usually we expect the October surprise to be the dirty laundry of a candidate, and therefore specific to a certain race. So is this the rare instance that cuts across all political boundaries? I understand you can only speak for yourself but it might provide some insight for the rest of us.

Well, they’ve polled this sort of stuff and, IIRC, about a third of Americans believe political violence is at times justified so there are probably quite a few people disappointed in the outcome of the attack unfortunately.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Well, they’ve polled this sort of stuff and, IIRC, about a third of Americans believe political violence is at times justified so there are probably quite a few people disappointed in the outcome of the attack unfortunately.

Wait wait wait.

I need this poll that suggests 1/3 of people think political violence is justified.

[bundabergdevil]

Wait wait wait.

I need this poll that suggests 1/3 of people think political violence is justified.

This was from last year but it stood out to me.


https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-shows-third-of-americans-support-use-of-political-violence-2021-3?amp

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

This was from last year but it stood out to me.


https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-shows-third-of-americans-support-use-of-political-violence-2021-3?amp

Okay. That article states very specific instances and ask if political violence is okay under certain circumstances. That's still alarming, but a little different than just a blanket statement of "1/3 of Americans support political violence."

I mean, if you asked me "if someone attacked my wife, would you punch them in the nose?" I woould say "yes." Lead headline "Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 advocates for nose punches!"

[bundabergdevil]

Okay. That article states very specific instances and ask if political violence is okay under certain circumstances. That's still alarming, but a little different than just a blanket statement of "1/3 of Americans support political violence."

I mean, if you asked me "if someone attacked my wife, would you punch them in the nose?" I woould say "yes." Lead headline "Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 advocates for nose punches!"

My original post did say “at times justified”.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

My original post did say “at times justified”.

Absolutely did. My mistake.

[ClemmonsDevil]

My original post did say “at times justified”.

True. But you and I are on record as being pro-nose punching.

[dudog84]

Well, they’ve polled this sort of stuff and, IIRC, about a third of Americans believe political violence is at times justified so there are probably quite a few people disappointed in the outcome of the attack unfortunately.

We all know that roughly 30% of each side is immovable. But in a high-turnout election (which this is appearing to be), 30% is only going to win you a seat in the reddest or bluest of districts/states.

I've got to think those who are movable are thinking "Enough of this ____".

[bundabergdevil]

True. But you and I are on record as being pro-nose punching.

Which is at times justified! 😃

[SouthernDukie]

I was an independent and voted independent (70-30 one way generally) until 2015. Then I affiliated.

I did the opposite. I was affiliated, then became an independent after the 2016 election. Of course in Florida we have closed primaries so I have no voice there. But at this point I really don’t care. I’ll vote in the generals and that’s good enough for me. My vote isn’t going to make a difference here are in purple but becoming more and more red over the last several years Florida.

[Area_Man]

My vote isn’t going to make a difference here are in purple but becoming more and more red over the last several years Florida.

I think we're almost at the point where we can classify Florida as a red state:

• The Democratic Governors Association spent just $685,000 this election cycle. It gave $14 million to Florida in the past two governor races.
• Big outside donor money has almost completely dried up. New York billionaire Michael Bloomberg contributed only $1.5 million to Democrats this cycle. He vowed $100 million to Florida in 2020.
• Polling shows Republicans making headway in Miami-Dade County, which has long served as a blue stronghold.
• Democrats have collectively raised $29 million in the four non-federal statewide races. Republicans raised nearly $200 million.

[Area_Man]

Wow: a new poll from Trafalgar has Senator Patty Murray up by only one. Trafalgar tends to skew Republican, so take it with a grain of salt, but I can see why the powers that be are dumping money into this race all of a sudden.

Regardless of what the poll says, I say there's no way Murray loses this one.

[bundabergdevil]

No surprise but new ABC poll continues to put economy / inflation as the top issues.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/econ...ry?id=92348366

Meanwhile, here in PA, there has been unprecedented mobilization on both side for poll watching and, unfortunately, threats against poll workers continues to make the news.

[bundabergdevil]

Absolutely did. My mistake.

Sigh. And, of course, when prominent figures in one party (like, say, the former president’s son) make jokes about the incident on social media to amplify a conspiracy theory.

For the record, it wasn’t right for Pelosi’s daughter to kick the Paul incident either.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Sigh. And, of course, when prominent figures in one party (like, say, the former president’s son) make jokes about the incident on social media to amplify a conspiracy theory.

For the record, it wasn’t right for Pelosi’s daughter to kick the Paul incident either.

Agreed on both accounts. I find making light of such incidents incredibly despicable. But will also allow that a politician's offspring ought not be held to the same level of accountability as the politicians themselves.

But many folks seem bound and determined to tie children to their parents, for better or for worse.

I will allow that if a politician's child is put into employ, that changes things a bit.

But yeah, maybe no one should make light of physical attacks against politicians and their loved ones. Seems a pretty safe rule

[budwom]

Meanwhile, Elon Musk gives us an early look at how he'll run the Tweeting Universe by tweeting a link to a crazy conspiracy theory about the Pelosi attack, from the same web site that reported in 2016 that Hillary CLinton was actually dead and the person campaigning on the campaign trail was an imposter. He has since taken down the link, but this provides some insight as to his internal filters or lack thereof.

[JasonEvans]

One of the most respected pollsters out there, NYTimes/Sienna, has released several new results on the most hotly contested senate races of the season:

Georgia: Warnock (D) 49, Walker (R) 46
Arizona: Kelly (D) 51, Masters (R) 45
Nevada: Cortez-Masto (D) 47, Laxalt (R) 47
Pennsylvania: Fetterman (D) 49, Oz (R) 44

Those look like Dem numbers from 4 weeks ago, before to GOP started soaring. If they prove to be true in a week, NYT/Sienna is going to be the new king of polling.