Top 5 Movies of Winter 2016-17

[JasonEvans]

Time for another poll! If you don't know how this works... where have you been for the past 5+ years?!?! Please search for "Top 5 Movies" and you will find that we do this every summer and every winter.

rules are simple -- there is a poll at the top of this thread. Vote for the 5... exactly 5... movies you expect to post the most boxoffice this winter. We will define a winter film as any picture released from the last weekend of October (Oct 28th) through the 3rd weekend of February (we usually end in late January, but I'm doing this to add some good contenders to the mix!). We will close the contest when the top 5 are known or when the last of those February films has ended its boxoffice run. Yes, this means it is very possible that this contest will last until late April... suck it!

Here are the films that will be in our contest (with release date):
Inferno (Oct 28)
Dr. Strange (Nov 4)
Arrival (Nov 11)
Fantastic Beasts (Nov 18)
Moana (Nov 23)
Allied (Nov 23)
Office Christmas Party (Dec 9)
Rogue One (Dec 16)
Sing (Dec 21)
Passengers (Dec 21)
Assassin's Creed (Dec 21)
LEGO Batman (Feb 10)
Fifty Shades Darker (Feb 10)
The Dark Tower (Feb 17)

There will also be a space for you to vote for "other" which would allow you to pick a film not on the poll list, but you must name that film in a post for it to qualify for the contest. Among the contenders in the "other" category are a whole bunch of awards contenders like: Hacksaw Ridge, Jackie, Bleed for This, La La Land, Collateral Beauty, Patriot's Day, Fences and many others. We've seen crazier things than an "other" making the top 5.

So, vote now and post your picks as well as why you picked them. The poll will close in 12 days, on Oct 26th. Good luck!!

-Jason "by adding those Feb films, this sucker got hard! There hasn't even been a trailer for Dark Tower yet!!" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Here are the films that will be in our contest (with release date):
Inferno (Oct 28)
Dr. Strange (Nov 4)
Arrival (Nov 11)
Fantastic Beasts (Nov 18)
Moana (Nov 23)
Allied (Nov 23)
Office Christmas Party (Dec 9)
Rogue One (Dec 16)
Sing (Dec 21)
Passengers (Dec 21)
Assassin's Creed (Dec 21)
LEGO Batman (Feb 10)
Fifty Shades Darker (Feb 10)
The Dark Tower (Feb 17)

There are at least 9 legit contenders and really only 2 locks in my opinion. This is muuuuch harder than past winter contests when it felt like there were 3 or 4 locks and only 3 or 4 other contenders.

[brevity]

There are at least 9 legit contenders and really only 2 locks in my opinion.

I'm pretty sure I'll be picking the prequel spinoff film coming out later this year that is the (8th or 9th) entry in a major (sci-fi or fantasy) film franchise, that features a younger (Darth Vader or Albus Dumbledore) as a background character, and stars that Oscar-nominated performer who played (Jane or Stephen) Hawking in The Theory of Everything, leading a cast of actors that show (diversity or a real lack of diversity).

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Strange, Beasts, Star Wars, and Legos all look like locks to me... Hard to imagine any of those not making a billion dollars.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Strange, Beasts, Star Wars, and Legos all look like locks to me... Hard to imagine any of those not making a billion dollars.

I'd swap Moana with Batman. I have no doubt that Lego will get bucks, and may be the 5th, but voting against Disney is near impossible.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I'd swap Moana with Batman. I have no doubt that Lego will get bucks, and may be the 5th, but voting against Disney is near impossible.

Well, we can have both! That would round out the five nicely, with no surprises, so it is almost certain to be inaccurate.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Well, we can have both! That would round out the five nicely, with no surprises, so it is almost certain to be inaccurate.

So, so, so very true!

[JasonEvans]

so it is almost certain to be inaccurate.

At first bush, those 5 seems like good bets...

But usually one of the Oscar contenders turns out to be a long-legged boxoffice power. Last year, The Martian ($228 mil) and The Revenant ($183 mil) were Best Pic boxoffice winners. In 2014 it was American Sniper ($350 mil); in 2013 Gravity ($274 mil) and American Hustle ($150 mil); 2012 gave us Lincoln ($182 mil) and Django ($162 mil)... and so on. I expect both Arrival and Passengers to be a big awards contenders and big boxoffice hits. Allied also seems like it could take off both critically and at the boxoffice. Everyone says you get to see Brad Pitt and Marion Cotillard fall in love on screen and that is what broke up Brangelina. Nothing sells like scandal!

And I think you bet against Sing at your peril. Think about how popular American Idol and The Voice have been... this is a humorous, animated version of those shows. I won't be even mildly surprised if it makes $200+ mil.

-Jason "I could make a case for several others... but I don't want to give away too much of my research and expertise " Evans

[YmoBeThere]

Passengers - because last time I picked a Jennifer Lawrence film in the contest it ended with much joy as I went 3 for 5.

[JasonEvans]

Not many folks voting yet. Still more than a week to go so I guess folks are biding their time.

Of the votes we have, both Rogue and Beats have been picked by 100% of voters. Dr. Strange is next at 80%. Then LEGO Batman at 60% and Moana with 40%. Nothing else tops 30%.

Inferno, Assassin's Creed, and Fifty Shades Darker are yet to get a vote... kinda surprising considering the first 50 Shades made $166 mil. Do folks think it is going to take $180+ mil to make the top 5 this winter?

-Jason "last year's #5 film of winter was Daddy's Home with $150 mil; the year before it was Interstellar with $188 mil; the year before was American Hustle with $150 mil" Evans

[Chicago 1995]

I meant to click Dr. Strange, not Inferno!

I think the time has passed for Dan Brown (and Tom Hanks' ridiculous Robert Langdon hair).

While I don't know if Jason can fix the poll, I'm putting my vote on record for Dr. Strange, not Inferno. Marvel vs. Dan Brown? Please.

Three of the other four were pretty easy for me. Rogue One and Fantastic Beasts are locks. I took Sing rather than Moana based on the unscientific poll of my second and fourth grader and their friends. Moana has no buzz for them. Sing? They're in.

Took Allied. Jason sold me on it.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Fifty Shades Darker are yet to get a vote... kinda surprising considering the first 50 Shades made $166 mil.

But it sucked and I don't know many women clamoring to see the sequel. The first one opened on V-Day, so guys were likely more inspired to take their ladies to the movies in hopes of heating up the bedroom later that evening. The first one also opened with $56 mil, so while it did make lots of bank, it did a big bulk of it quickly and without a summer or holiday crowd to fight against. (Isn't February usually the traditional time to dump the dregs of Hollywood?)

[CameronBornAndBred]

I took Sing rather than Moana based on the unscientific poll of my second and fourth grader and their friends. Moana has no buzz for them. Sing? They're in.

This is where not having kids is a distinct disadvantage. Thanks for sharing your kids' sage advice.

[brevity]

Comparative values from the Hollywood Stock Exchange...

$428.16 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
$237.53 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
$189.29 Doctor Strange
$171.65 Moana
$171.56 The LEGO Batman Movie
$126.97 Fifty Shades Darker
$121.66 Sing
$104.36 Passengers
$94.09 The Dark Tower
$86.66 Arrival
$79.38 Inferno
$73.93 Office Christmas Party
$60.26 Assassin's Creed
$58.36 Allied

These unlisted films rate higher than Allied.

$70.17 Trolls (November 4)
$65.08 XXX: Return of Xander Cage (January 20)
$64.02 John Wick: Chapter Two (February 10)
$59.73 The Great Wall (February 17)

[JasonEvans]

Comparative values from the Hollywood Stock Exchange...

$428.16 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
$237.53 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
$189.29 Doctor Strange
$171.65 Moana
$171.56 The LEGO Batman Movie
$126.97 Fifty Shades Darker
$121.66 Sing
$104.36 Passengers
$94.09 The Dark Tower
$86.66 Arrival
$79.38 Inferno
$73.93 Office Christmas Party
$60.26 Assassin's Creed
$58.36 Allied

These unlisted films rate higher than Allied.

$70.17 Trolls (November 4)
$65.08 XXX: Return of Xander Cage (January 20)
$64.02 John Wick: Chapter Two (February 10)
$59.73 The Great Wall (February 17)

So, if we were voting for worldwide boxoffice, then I'd be all over The Great Wall. I believe it is the first true English-language film that Zhang Yimou has made with big Hollywood stars (Matt Damon, Willem Dafoe, and Pedro Pascal of Game of Thrones). It is going to be a visual feast, much like his acclaimed films Hero and Raise the Red Lantern were. It is going to make ridiculous bank in Asia. I won't be even mildly surprised if it is the biggest film of the year in China. But, I think it may struggle to find a US audience. We will see. If Warner, Disney, or Paramount were behind it... but Universal is doing the domestic release and they don't have quite the same resources as some of the other big boys. Plus, their financial stake in the film is relatively small (this is mostly a Chinese production) and they are going to be pushing Fifty Shades Darker pretty hard, I suspect. They simply won't have time or money to go big on Great Wall. But, I bet the film will be gorgeous to watch. I wonder if they are going to do an IMAx release.

Meanwhile, it is worth noting that HSX is really, really bad at measuring films with long legs, like awards films. HSX only looks at your first 3 weekends of release. So, movies like Allied, Arrival, or Passengers are quite often massively undervalued by HSX. For example, here are the HSX prices and final boxoffice hauls of some recent awards contenders:

The Revenant- $138 vs $188
The Martian - $166 vs. $228
Interstellar - $147 vs $188
Gone Girl - $124 vs $167

Worth noting that many of those flicks were trading well below $100 on HSX before they opened better than expected due to awards buzz.

-Jason "Sing will absolutely make $150+ mil. No question in my mind. I feel Udaman sure about that" Evans

[JasonEvans]

I meant to click Dr. Strange, not Inferno!

I think the time has passed for Dan Brown (and Tom Hanks' ridiculous Robert Langdon hair).

While I don't know if Jason can fix the poll, I'm putting my vote on record for Dr. Strange, not Inferno. Marvel vs. Dan Brown? Please.

Three of the other four were pretty easy for me. Rogue One and Fantastic Beasts are locks. I took Sing rather than Moana based on the unscientific poll of my second and fourth grader and their friends. Moana has no buzz for them. Sing? They're in.

Took Allied. Jason sold me on it.

I was able to move your vote, Chicago, but I cannot make your name appear as one of the folks who voted for Strange. Fear not, we shall remember your mistake and correction. You officially voted for Strange, not Inferno.

[BandAlum83]

Fantastic Beasts (Nov 18)
Moana (Nov 23)
Rogue One (Dec 16)
Sing (Dec 21)
Passengers (Dec 21)

My votes. I almost picked Arrival, but the release date scared me away. It will get completely eaten up by fantastic beasts the next week.

Sing and Passangers being released same weekend isn't good, but who can vote against Jennifer Lawrence right now. I do think sing will win the weekend, however.

I just don't like the graphic animation on the LEGO trailer. Moana has the classic Disney formula for a winner. I can't go more than 2 animate, so...

It looks to be a much better winter lineup than we had in the summer. Box Office has been down overall. I wonder if we are poised for a comeback.

I wonder if the election and results would have any impact in either direction?

[BandAlum83]

I was able to move your vote, Chicago, but I cannot make your name appear as one of the folks who voted for Strange. Fear not, we shall remember your mistake and correction. You officially voted for Strange, not Inferno.

Inferno was a great book, BTW. I just don't see it as a blockbuster movie, however. And I've never believed Tom Hanks in the role.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Fantastic Beasts (Nov 18)
Moana (Nov 23)
Rogue One (Dec 16)
Sing (Dec 21)
Passengers (Dec 21)
but who can vote against Jennifer Lawrence right now. I do think sing will win the weekend, however.

I'm surprised you are voting for two late season movies on same weekend and voting against Marvel. That's bold.

[JasonEvans]

I'm surprised you are voting for two late season movies on same weekend and voting against Marvel. That's bold.

Dec 21 ain't that late. Christmas and New Year's week are huge, huge weeks at the boxoffice. We almost always get at least 1 of our top 5 from Christmas weekend, last year we got 2 (Revenenat and Daddy's Home).

As for voting against Marvel, it may seem imprudent with bigger, established properties, but lets not forget that Ant Man only made $180 mil last summer (not sure $180 mil will get into our top 5 this winter as it going to be extremely competitive at the top). Dr. Strange is not an established property and will not feature the recognizable big stars (Cap, Iron Man, Thor, and so on). It is not like Cumberbatch is a big star either; other than ST:Into Darkness, he has not appeared* in a single film that made $100 mil at the boxoffice.

-Jason "*-I'm not counting his almost unrecognizable voice work as Smaug in the Hobbit films" Evans