2021 Men's Basketball Recruiting Thread

[revmel53]

FWIW, Adam Rowe at the Devil's Den, like John Watson, has switched has Trevor Keels' Crystal Ball pick back to Duke with a significant degree of confidence (8 out of 10).

https://247sports.com/PlayerInstitut...rtPredictions/

I still believe Keels is a make or break recruit for us this year. Though it seems that we will have plenty of height and mid-size players, we still have a severe lack of depth at guard, and though the two frosh showed glimpses of improvement, we can't count on their incredible improvement in their second year (example: Moore.) Let's get him. Go Duke!

[CDu]

I still believe Keels is a make or break recruit for us this year. Though it seems that we will have plenty of height and mid-size players, we still have a severe lack of depth at guard, and though the two frosh showed glimpses of improvement, we can't count on their incredible improvement in their second year (example: Moore.) Let's get him. Go Duke!

And I will say that I think you are overrating Keels. He is likely to be about what Steward or Roach was this past year based on recruiting rank. Certainly a nice recruit to land, and I do hope we get him. But it is far from clear he will change the team’s fortunes. I also disagree with the statement that we have a “severe” lack of guards.

[budwom]

And I will say that I think you are overrating Keels. He is likely to be about what Steward or Roach was this past year based on recruiting rank. Certainly a nice recruit to land, and I do hope we get him. But it is far from clear he will change the team’s fortunes. I also disagree with the statement that we have a “severe” lack of guards.

I think you are underrating him, but hopefully we'll get to see. He has physicality well above that of Steward or Roach...

[CDu]

I think you are underrating him, but hopefully we'll get to see. He has physicality well above that of Steward or Roach...

And they have attributes (ballhandling, quickness) that are above what Keels has.

I think people are underrating Roach and Steward. Their performances were as good or better than our typical freshmen in the 20-25 range are. And Keels is the #20 recruit, so I don’t see any clear reason to expect him to do more than they did.

Griffin and (especially) Banchero are top-10 guys snd should be studs from the start. Baldwin too if he comes. Keels is a lot more iffy, and I would expect similar ups and downs from him as a frosh as we saw from Roach and Steward.

[amusedcupcake]

And I will say that I think you are overrating Keels. He is likely to be about what Steward or Roach was this past year based on recruiting rank. Certainly a nice recruit to land, and I do hope we get him. But it is far from clear he will change the team’s fortunes. I also disagree with the statement that we have a “severe” lack of guards.

We had a severe lack of guards in 2010

I think we do need another guard. Roach, Steward and maybe Griffin (more of a SF?) are all we have. I do NOT want to see a lot of Moore at the 1 or 2 next year. I do not think we necessarily need a 5 star guard recruit (though I would welcome it) but we definitely need another guard for depth.

[CDu]

We had a severe lack of guards in 2010

I think we do need another guard. Roach, Steward and maybe Griffin (more of a SF?) are all we have. I do NOT want to see a lot of Moore at the 1 or 2 next year. I do not think we necessarily need a 5 star guard recruit (though I would welcome it) but we definitely need another guard for depth.

Yeah, I would definitely be happy to get Keels or another guard, and I do think we will get one (not sure which, but we'll get one). I just don't think it's a backbreaker to not get Keels, whom I would expect to be not as good as sophomores Roach and Steward anyway.

[jv001]

Yeah, I would definitely be happy to get Keels or another guard, and I do think we will get one (not sure which, but we'll get one). I just don't think it's a backbreaker to not get Keels, whom I would expect to be not as good as sophomores Roach and Steward anyway.

Keels has the reputation of being a good shooter, but so did DJ coming out of high school. I don't think we can take scouting reports on high school players as gospel. The difference in high school basketball and division 1 college basketball is huge. I do like Keels physical make up compared to DJ and Roach but does he have DJ's quickness? I do think Coach K will add at least one guard before the season begins.

GoDuke!

[DavidBenAkiva]

Keels has the reputation of being a good shooter, but so did DJ coming out of high school. I don't think we can take scouting reports on high school players as gospel. The difference in high school basketball and division 1 college basketball is huge. I do like Keels physical make up compared to DJ and Roach but does he have DJ's quickness? I do think Coach K will add at least one guard before the season begins.

GoDuke!

Steward and Keels are different players. Steward is quick and can get to his spots. He needs to refine his game a little, but the profile is there for him to become an elite scorer in the college game. NBA scouts know who he is he's on draft boards if he decides to go pro. I don't think he gets a first round look this year, but there are teams that would be interested in drafting or signing him after the fact.

Keels isn't as quick, but he's got a toughness about him and does everything at a high level. It was a routine for him to get triple-doubles in the limited action he saw this year. His physical profile is a lot like Gary Trent, Jr., although Trent was considered a higher caliber recruit coming out of high school. Keels is more comfortable with the ball in his hands, from what I have seen, and might end up as a better all-around scorer than Trent. Keels can shoot the ball well, but I doubt he is as good as Trent or Frank Jackson were as freshman. Keels is not as quick and doesn't have that high-end athleticism that teams want out of a freshman one-and-done 2 guard. That doesn't mean he won't get to the NBA, but I don't think it's going to be right away for him. I see Keels as a multi-year player in college and hopefully that is at Duke. He is very talented and could develop into a high-level player that could contribute right away.

That being said, I think we've seen enough of Steward to project that he will be among the top scorers in the ACC next season. He's really good and a full summer of training and refinement of his game is going to do wonders.

[CDu]

Steward and Keels are different players. Steward is quick and can get to his spots. He needs to refine his game a little, but the profile is there for him to become an elite scorer in the college game. NBA scouts know who he is he's on draft boards if he decides to go pro. I don't think he gets a first round look this year, but there are teams that would be interested in drafting or signing him after the fact.

Keels isn't as quick, but he's got a toughness about him and does everything at a high level. It was a routine for him to get triple-doubles in the limited action he saw this year. His physical profile is a lot like Gary Trent, Jr., although Trent was considered a higher caliber recruit coming out of high school. Keels is more comfortable with the ball in his hands, from what I have seen, and might end up as a better all-around scorer than Trent. Keels can shoot the ball well, but I doubt he is as good as Trent or Frank Jackson were as freshman. Keels is not as quick and doesn't have that high-end athleticism that teams want out of a freshman one-and-done 2 guard. That doesn't mean he won't get to the NBA, but I don't think it's going to be right away for him. I see Keels as a multi-year player in college and hopefully that is at Duke. He is very talented and could develop into a high-level player that could contribute right away.

That being said, I think we've seen enough of Steward to project that he will be among the top scorers in the ACC next season. He's really good and a full summer of training and refinement of his game is going to do wonders.

Yep, I pretty much cosign this. Keels is probably a bit of a cross between the strength/athleticism of Trent and the ballhandling of Jackson, and perhaps not quite the shooter of either. He's not nearly the athlete that Jackson was, and he's probably a bit shorter than Trent was. And it is not that he's a bad shooter, but he's not quite as much of a knockdown shooter as those guys were purported to be coming out. I have no doubts Keels will become a VERY good college player; I just wonder if it will happen as a freshman. It didn't happen for Jackson, Trent, Roach, Kennard, Allen, or Steward (to varying degrees) as freshmen, and those guys were similarly (in some cases higher) rated than Keels coming out of high school.

And definitely cosign on Steward being an all-ACC caliber player next year. I mean, he wasn't THAT far off of it this year as a freshman, and with a full offseason to work with the coaching staff and team and to get stronger, I'd expect big things from him. I think if Keels is starting over Steward, then either Keels has GREATLY exceeded expectations or Steward has disappointed a bit in terms of his progress from freshman to sophomore year.

[Kedsy]

I still believe Keels is a make or break recruit for us this year. Though it seems that we will have plenty of height and mid-size players, we still have a severe lack of depth at guard, and though the two frosh showed glimpses of improvement, we can't count on their incredible improvement in their second year (example: Moore.) Let's get him. Go Duke!

And I will say that I think you are overrating Keels. He is likely to be about what Steward or Roach was this past year based on recruiting rank. Certainly a nice recruit to land, and I do hope we get him. But it is far from clear he will change the team’s fortunes.

I think you are underrating him, but hopefully we'll get to see. He has physicality well above that of Steward or Roach...

And they have attributes (ballhandling, quickness) that are above what Keels has.

I think people are underrating Roach and Steward. Their performances were as good or better than our typical freshmen in the 20-25 range are. And Keels is the #20 recruit, so I don’t see any clear reason to expect him to do more than they did.

Griffin and (especially) Banchero are top-10 guys snd should be studs from the start. Baldwin too if he comes. Keels is a lot more iffy, and I would expect similar ups and downs from him as a frosh as we saw from Roach and Steward.

I agree with CDu. Below is a list of every Duke freshman in the #18 to #29 range since 1999, and how they produced their freshman season:

(I counted DNPs as 1 game and zero stats)

Player		Rank	mpg	ppg	rpg	apg	eFG
M Dunleavy	26	21.3	8.0	3.8	1.5	54.0
D Ewing		29	18.2	6.5	2.2	1.3	57.5
S Dockery	21	10.5	3.3	1.4	1.0	44.1
D Nelson	18	19.2	6.2	4.5	0.8	44.5
J Scheyer	28	33.7	12.2	3.3	1.8	50.5
B Zoubek	25	7.1	3.0	2.1	0.2	52.4
L Thomas	20	14.0	3.8	2.3	0.0	56.8
T King		27	9.7	5.5	2.0	0.4	55.6
N Smith		18	14.7	5.9	1.5	1.3	54.0
A Dawkins*	25ish	12.0	4.2	1.0	0.3	52.9
Mas Plumlee	18	12.0	3.1	2.6	0.8	47.2
M Gbinije	28	3.2	1.0	0.4	0.1	65.0
A Jefferson	21	11.3	3.6	2.6	0.2	54.3
G Allen		24	8.3	3.9	0.9	0.4	50.9
L Kennard	21	26.7	11.8	3.6	1.5	50.3
W Moore		25	19.4	6.0	3.4	1.5	42.9
M Williams	25	14.6	6.8	4.3	0.7	66.4
D Steward	24	30.8	13.0	4.0	2.4	50.8
J Roach		20	27.4	8.7	2.1	2.8	53.2

* Because he reclassified late, Dawkins didn't have an RSCI rank. Based on the various services at the time, his rank should have been somewhere in the 20s.


As you can see, the production of Steward and Roach as freshmen is basically the most we can expect from a freshman in this range. In fact, DJ Steward has the best basic stats of any Duke freshman rated #18 to #29 at least since 1999.

In other words, it's unlikely that Keels could top DJ's and Jeremy's freshman production, much less their presumably improved production as sophomores.

[jimsumner]

I agree with CDu. Below is a list of every Duke freshman in the #18 to #29 range since 1999, and how they produced their freshman season:

(I counted DNPs as 1 game and zero stats)

Player		Rank	mpg	ppg	rpg	apg	eFG
M Dunleavy	26	21.3	8.0	3.8	1.5	54.0
D Ewing		29	18.2	6.5	2.2	1.3	57.5
S Dockery	21	10.5	3.3	1.4	1.0	44.1
D Nelson	18	19.2	6.2	4.5	0.8	44.5
J Scheyer	28	33.7	12.2	3.3	1.8	50.5
B Zoubek	25	7.1	3.0	2.1	0.2	52.4
L Thomas	20	14.0	3.8	2.3	0.0	56.8
T King		27	9.7	5.5	2.0	0.4	55.6
N Smith		18	14.7	5.9	1.5	1.3	54.0
A Dawkins*	25ish	12.0	4.2	1.0	0.3	52.9
Mas Plumlee	18	12.0	3.1	2.6	0.8	47.2
M Gbinije	28	3.2	1.0	0.4	0.1	65.0
A Jefferson	21	11.3	3.6	2.6	0.2	54.3
G Allen		24	8.3	3.9	0.9	0.4	50.9
L Kennard	21	26.7	11.8	3.6	1.5	50.3
W Moore		25	19.4	6.0	3.4	1.5	42.9
M Williams	25	14.6	6.8	4.3	0.7	66.4
D Steward	24	30.8	13.0	4.0	2.4	50.8
J Roach		20	27.4	8.7	2.1	2.8	53.2

* Because he reclassified late, Dawkins didn't have an RSCI rank. Based on the various services at the time, his rank should have been somewhere in the 20s.


As you can see, the production of Steward and Roach as freshmen is basically the most we can expect from a freshman in this range. In fact, DJ Steward has the best basic stats of any Duke freshman rated #18 to #29 at least since 1999.

In other words, it's unlikely that Keels could top DJ's and Jeremy's freshman production, much less their presumably improved production as sophomores.

Would it be churlish of me to note that Cassius Stanley fell just outside this threshold but had a pretty productive freshman season? I would take 12.6 points, 4.9 rebounds, 47 percent shooting and 36 percent shooting on 3s from Keels as a freshman in a Duke uniform in a New York minute.

[CDu]

Would it be churlish of me to note that Cassius Stanley fell just outside this threshold but had a pretty productive freshman season? I would take 12.6 points, 4.9 rebounds, 47 percent shooting and 36 percent shooting on 3s from Keels as a freshman in a Duke uniform in a New York minute.

I'd gladly take that from Keels. But we just had a guard average 13.0 points and 4.0 rebounds per game with 34% 3pt shooting as a freshman, and yet some people are talking as though we need Keels to be the savior to potentially play over that guy.

[jimsumner]

I'd gladly take that from Keels. But we just had a guard average 13.0 points and 4.0 rebounds per game with 34% 3pt shooting as a freshman, and yet some people are talking as though we need Keels to be the savior to potentially play over that guy.

My point was that the cutoff seemed artificial and the list of outside-the-top-15 recruits who were pretty good as freshmen should be expanded to include Stanley

And, I agree, I would not expect Keels to play ahead of Steward. The development of Roach into a top-tier ACC point guard seems to be the bigger variable to me. If Roach doesn't make that jump, could a Steward/Keels backcourt work, with Roach coming off the bench?

Hopefully, that won't be necessary. I would love to see Keels come off the bench for about 20 mpg and give Duke 8-10 ppg and then emerge as a star as a sophomore, after Steward goes pro.

If Keels has Villanova and Virginia on his short list, that suggests a willingness to unpack his bags, learn from great coaches and develop his game over a period longer than one year.

[CDu]

My point was that the cutoff seemed artificial.

Well, expanding the cutoff would only further solidify the point. But more importantly, it was a cutoff designed to approximate where Keels will be as a recruit.

Stanley had a very nice season, on par with those of Kennard and Scheyer and Steward. Adding him wouldn't change Kedsy's point, and adding him would include more guys who did notably worse, further strengthening Kedsy's point.

[Kedsy]

Would it be churlish of me to note that Cassius Stanley fell just outside this threshold but had a pretty productive freshman season? I would take 12.6 points, 4.9 rebounds, 47 percent shooting and 36 percent shooting on 3s from Keels as a freshman in a Duke uniform in a New York minute.

I thought about including Stanley, but that would have meant also including Brakefield, Baker, DeLaurier, Ojeleye, Matt Jones, Hairston, Cook, Boateng, and Thompson, and I didn't think that group (none of whom besides Stanley provided much of anything as freshmen) would change the conclusion.


EDIT: What CDu said.

[CDu]

And, I agree, I would not expect Keels to play ahead of Steward. The development of Roach into a top-tier ACC point guard seems to be the bigger variable to me. If Roach doesn't make that jump, could a Steward/Keels backcourt work, with Roach coming off the bench?

Hopefully, that won't be necessary. I would love to see Keels come off the bench for about 20 mpg and give Duke 8-10 ppg and then emerge as a star as a sophomore, after Steward goes pro.

If Keels has Villanova and Virginia on his short list, that suggests a willingness to unpack his bags, learn from great coaches and develop his game over a period longer than one year.

I don’t disagree with any of this. I would add as well that Moore is likely in the backcourt mix as well given what we appear to have in the frontcourt. I would guess that plan A is for Roach (who averaged 8.7 ppg on 53% eFG%, certainly not bad for a frosh) to make a jump and pair with Steward, plan B is for Moore to make a jump with Roach and Keels as backups, and plan C is for Keels to pair with Steward.

But more to the general point, if Keels is starting, then that means that either he is outperforming anyone we have ever recruited in that range as a frosh or that Roach and Moore haven’t developed as hoped.

As I said, I think Keels can be a solid complementary player next year, and should eventually be a star in college. But I don’t expect that he is the key to our season.

[azzefkram]

I think Keels is an important recruit because in order to have Sophomore Keels, Duke needs to have Freshman Keels. There is a fairly good chance that both DJ and Wendell could leave after next season. While unlikely at this point, it is not out of the realm of possibility that Jeremy could leave as well. No Keels and the backcourt for the 22-23 season could be CDu, Kedsy and myself (I don't think any of us have used up our eligibility).

While I agree that Keels does not lift the ceiling of next years team to a great extent, I do think he would raise the floor. Not a bad thing in my book.

[CDu]

I think Keels is an important recruit because in order to have Sophomore Keels, Duke needs to have Freshman Keels. There is a fairly good chance that both DJ and Wendell could leave after next season. While unlikely at this point, it is not out of the realm of possibility that Jeremy could leave as well. No Keels and the backcourt for the 22-23 season could be CDu, Kedsy and myself (I don't think any of us have used up our eligibility).

While I agree that Keels does not lift the ceiling of next years team to a great extent, I do think he would raise the floor. Not a bad thing in my book.

Yeah, either Keels or TyTy Washington would be nice for continuity in the 2022-23 season. Otherwise, we might need to dip heavily into the grad transfer market.

[jimsumner]

I don’t disagree with any of this. I would add as well that Moore is likely in the backcourt mix as well given what we appear to have in the frontcourt. I would guess that plan A is for Roach (who averaged 8.7 ppg on 53% eFG%, certainly not bad for a frosh) to make a jump and pair with Steward, plan B is for Moore to make a jump with Roach and Keels as backups, and plan C is for Keels to pair with Steward.

But more to the general point, if Keels is starting, then that means that either he is outperforming anyone we have ever recruited in that range as a frosh or that Roach and Moore haven’t developed as hoped.

As I said, I think Keels can be a solid complementary player next year, and should eventually be a star in college. But I don’t expect that he is the key to our season.

RE: Roach. It's perfectly okay with me if Roach averages 8.7 points-per-game next season as long as he gets that assists-per-game average up into the 4.5 to 5.5 range. Duke needs him to channel his inner Tre Jones.

[DukieTiger]

Well, expanding the cutoff would only further solidify the point. But more importantly, it was a cutoff designed to approximate where Keels will be as a recruit.

Stanley had a very nice season, on par with those of Kennard and Scheyer and Steward. Adding him wouldn't change Kedsy's point, and adding him would include more guys who did notably worse, further strengthening Kedsy's point.

I don’t know how much stock you can put in Keels’ ranking given the pandemic. It’s possible he would have been a riser as a senior with more opportunities for exposure. This year and next year’s classes have to be at a relatively high risk of mis-rankings.