I agree with CDu. Below is a list of every Duke freshman in the #18 to #29 range since 1999, and how they produced their freshman season:
(I counted DNPs as 1 game and zero stats)
Code:
Player Rank mpg ppg rpg apg eFG
M Dunleavy 26 21.3 8.0 3.8 1.5 54.0
D Ewing 29 18.2 6.5 2.2 1.3 57.5
S Dockery 21 10.5 3.3 1.4 1.0 44.1
D Nelson 18 19.2 6.2 4.5 0.8 44.5
J Scheyer 28 33.7 12.2 3.3 1.8 50.5
B Zoubek 25 7.1 3.0 2.1 0.2 52.4
L Thomas 20 14.0 3.8 2.3 0.0 56.8
T King 27 9.7 5.5 2.0 0.4 55.6
N Smith 18 14.7 5.9 1.5 1.3 54.0
A Dawkins* 25ish 12.0 4.2 1.0 0.3 52.9
Mas Plumlee 18 12.0 3.1 2.6 0.8 47.2
M Gbinije 28 3.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 65.0
A Jefferson 21 11.3 3.6 2.6 0.2 54.3
G Allen 24 8.3 3.9 0.9 0.4 50.9
L Kennard 21 26.7 11.8 3.6 1.5 50.3
W Moore 25 19.4 6.0 3.4 1.5 42.9
M Williams 25 14.6 6.8 4.3 0.7 66.4
D Steward 24 30.8 13.0 4.0 2.4 50.8
J Roach 20 27.4 8.7 2.1 2.8 53.2
* Because he reclassified late, Dawkins didn't have an RSCI rank. Based on the various services at the time, his rank should have been somewhere in the 20s.
As you can see, the production of Steward and Roach as freshmen is basically the
most we can expect from a freshman in this range. In fact, DJ Steward has the best basic stats of any Duke freshman rated #18 to #29 at least since 1999.
In other words, it's unlikely that Keels could top DJ's and Jeremy's freshman production, much less their presumably improved production as sophomores.