2020 Presidential Election

[Bostondevil]

The current iteration of the Republican party is not just anti-science, it's anti-expertise. "So called experts" is a common refrain when referring to actual public health experts. Anyone who knows anything about public health realizes that the pandemic response in the US exposes a failure of leadership at the national level. So, yeah, educated people are probably breaking hard for the party that will at least try to put together a coherent national plan to deal with this pandemic. Lately it looks like older people, the ones most likely to die, are breaking for the party that thinks getting to herd immunity is neither a legitimate plan nor a legitimate solution.

[MarkD83]

And if the election were between Kasich (or Graham, ca. 2016) and Biden, many of us would probably be voting for Kasich/Graham. I'm pretty firmly an independent, and as much as I don't feel that I've moved much on the political spectrum over the past decade or two, it's clear that the current incarnation of the Republican party has moved far away from me. I don't think that makes me "liberal" - nor should the Democratic party take voters like me for granted in future elections if it moves severely to the left.

ETA: from a horse race perspective, *this* is a big part of why Biden has a 10 point lead in the polls...

I will refer back to a previous post of mine regarding a political science lecture I attended in 2016...there does seem to be a 3rd party that has arisen in the US, the party of Trump. Although an R is associated with his name the party is not "Republican".


As supporting evidence for this Gov. Hogan of Md has voted for Ronald Reagan in the 2020 Presidential election.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...f08_story.html

[tommy]

I have been getting constant e-mails from Biden Victory Fund - they seem like they are coming from a specific person (I have gotten a lot from Jaime Harrison even though I don't live in SC, also Biden, Tom Perez, etc.). For various reasons I do not donate to politicians so I'm not sure how I got on this list. Anyway, I just got one from them that is made to look like it is from Madeleine Albright titled "I want to meet you, CrazyNotCrazie*, and so does Hillary Clinton." If I donate $7, I will be entered in a drawing to join them at a special event.

Interesting that they seem to be activating Hillary. I don't know how much they know about me but most everything about me would identify me as someone who strongly supported Hillary in 2016, so I don't know how widely this was sent. Because despite the narrative of Hillary being a polarizing candidate, there were a lot of people out there who were extremely enthusiastic about her. Though many of those who strongly supported her are still bitter at her for how she handled the campaign and screwing things up so might not like her as much now as they did in 2016.

*Note that if they really had addressed me by my DBR name that would be the final proof that I spend too much time here...

If I was running a Democratic campaign right now I would be staying far, far away from anything associating my candidate with Hillary Clinton. For Biden, he has been doing exactly what he should've been doing for months now, which is keeping it in the middle of the fairway, playing bogey-free golf for the most part, and letting Trump dig his own political grave. The only person on Earth who activates more Republicans and motivates them more than Nancy Pelosi is Hillary Clinton. Joe: Keep Hillary away! And you stay away from her! Pretty much the only Democratic candidate who could've lost to Trump in 2016 was Hillary Clinton. Why on earth would you want her name, her image, her words, anywhere involved right now?

This campaign is going exactly how you'd like it to be going right now, and Hillary can't help. All she can do is hurt. Don't make unforced errors like this. Keep Hillary and Pelosi in a basement together for another 15 days and otherwise just do what you've been doing.

[AustinDevil]

One point of clarification: that was the national polling average at one week prior to the election. We are still 2 weeks out. As of 2 weeks out in 2016, the polling average was a bit over +6.0 for Clinton. Which is still much less than Biden's lead, but about twice the normal polling error. Clinton's polling lead dropped by like 5 points over the penultimate week of the race.


But, that gets back to the other differences:
- major national news item (COVID) is not favorable to Trump
- MUCH more stability in Biden's lead than Clinton had
- Biden over 50% nationally and in several key states whereas Clinton was ~45% with lots of "undecideds" (i.e., the "shy" Trump voter could swing the election in 2016 but not in 2020)

This is all decent analysis, but you omit the single biggest thing: Comey broke all relevant policies to announce the reopening of the Clinton email investigation on October 28, 2016, exactly 12 days before the election.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-the-election/

[budwom]

Regrettably, Don, Don Jr and Eric all seem to have found my email address...carpet bombing emails all day long, joining Mark Kelly in that endeavor.

[Lord Ash]

Interesting that the President is saying that there is about to be a massive Biden bombshell coming up... he seems to have inside knowledge?

“I think Joe Biden has a scandal coming up that will make him almost an impotent candidate,” he said. “This scandal is so big. And the only thing he has going is he has a corrupt press who will not write about it.”

And apparently the Wall Street Journal is working on something, potentially about this.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...d61_story.html

[OldPhiKap]

Regrettably, Don, Don Jr and Eric all seem to have found my email address...carpet bombing emails all day long, joining Mark Kelly in that endeavor.

but are they offering you an 800% match if you donate in the next 24 hours? Or are they saving those juicy things for me?

[Acymetric]

Saw this story referenced in the NYT, and had noticed it yesterday... for the music lovers:

https://twitter.com/John_Fogerty/sta...trump-vs-biden

So the Trump campaign has been playing CCR's "Fortunate Son" at their events... a song written about draft dodging, tax evading sons of rich guys.

No idea why on earth the campaign would use it, but they do.

And now Fogerty has apparently issued a cease and desist.

Not sure if the "Law and Order" President will acknowledge the cease and desist or not.

That song is constantly misused as some kind of patriotic anthem. It is like the primary example of that happening.

[budwom]

Funny piece from the WaPo about scorn for undecided voters, which I am not above saying I share...some very funny quotes:https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifes...36d_story.html

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Interesting that the President is saying that there is about to be a massive Biden bombshell coming up... he seems to have inside knowledge?

“I think Joe Biden has a scandal coming up that will make him almost an impotent candidate,” he said. “This scandal is so big. And the only thing he has going is he has a corrupt press who will not write about it.”

And apparently the Wall Street Journal is working on something, potentially about this.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...d61_story.html

Must...Not...Make...Impotence...Joke...About...Two ...Male...Candidates...In...Their...70s...

[tbyers11]

Interesting that the President is saying that there is about to be a massive Biden bombshell coming up... he seems to have inside knowledge?

“I think Joe Biden has a scandal coming up that will make him almost an impotent candidate,” he said. “This scandal is so big. And the only thing he has going is he has a corrupt press who will not write about it.”

And apparently the Wall Street Journal is working on something, potentially about this.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...d61_story.html

An additional line that the Jill Colvin, AP reporter traveling with the President tweeted about that topic:

"I think Joe Biden has a scandal coming up that's going to make him almost an impotent candidate," Trump also told his staff during the call.

“We found stuff yesterday we gave it to the press," he said.

That sounds like independently resourced info to me.

[CDu]

This is all decent analysis, but you omit the single biggest thing: Comey broke all relevant policies to announce the reopening of the Clinton email investigation on October 28, 2016, exactly 12 days before the election.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-the-election/

Oh I am readily aware of what caused the precipitous drop from 2 weeks out to 1 week. I was just pointing out the correct corollary data point.

And I won’t rule out some crazy event changing the race between now and Election Day this time either. Though it does seem less likely this time around for the reasons I mentioned.

[elvis14]

Checked Fox "News" top 2 stories are...about Hunter Biden. I wonder if they are aware that Hunter isn't running for president. Impeachment needs to carry more weight.

[OldPhiKap]

Checked Fox "News" top 2 stories are...about Hunter Biden. I wonder if they are aware that Hunter isn't running for president. Impeachment needs to carry more weight.

Trump complaining about the Biden family (allegedly) making money from political power is kinda like Bill Clinton alleging that an opponent had an extramarial affair. Whether true or not, they're not the best vessel for the attack to work. (Same with Mitt Romney attacking "Obamacare" when he had enacted a somewhat similar plan as Governor of Massachusetts.)

It might suppress the vote for the "pox on both their houses" voters, but it's not like someone will suddenly vote for the proponent based upon the attack.

[Lord Ash]

An additional line that the Jill Colvin, AP reporter traveling with the President tweeted about that topic:

That sounds like independently resourced info to me.

Yeah, very odd... do Presidential campaigns usually talk about stuff they have found, and how they have passed it on to the media? I know people do oppo research, but I cannot recall it being as particular as this?

[YmoBeThere]

An additional line that the Jill Colvin, AP reporter traveling with the President tweeted about that topic:



That sounds like independently resourced info to me.

Sort of like the NY Post Macbook story? The trouble the incumbent campaign has using this type of approach is that we've now had nearly four years of him just making stuff up. Will a voter buy that this time it is different?

[MarkD83]

Interesting that the President is saying that there is about to be a massive Biden bombshell coming up... he seems to have inside knowledge?

“I think Joe Biden has a scandal coming up that will make him almost an impotent candidate,” he said. “This scandal is so big. And the only thing he has going is he has a corrupt press who will not write about it.”

And apparently the Wall Street Journal is working on something, potentially about this.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...d61_story.html

First, by the time anything is released everyone will have voted (some what facetious).

Second, if the announcement has anything to do with Rudy Giuliani then it may move the needle toward Biden (very facetious).

[PackMan97]

Interesting that the President is saying that there is about to be a massive Biden bombshell coming up... he seems to have inside knowledge?

“I think Joe Biden has a scandal coming up that will make him almost an impotent candidate,” he said. “This scandal is so big. And the only thing he has going is he has a corrupt press who will not write about it.”

Does.
Not.
Matter.

I know Trump said it in 2016, but this time it's actually true. Biden could shoot someone in Times Square and I think it would actually improve his numbers (independents concerned about the 2nd amendment would know they had a friend in Joe).

The problem is that Trump has spent the last 4 years making everyone but his base happy. He's also spent time shrinking his base. At this point many folks voting for Biden are voting Biden simply to get rid of Biden. If the scandal is that horrible, I'm sure the Democrats will start impeachment hearings.

[Tappan Zee Devil]

I have been getting constant e-mails from Biden Victory Fund - they seem like they are coming from a specific person (I have gotten a lot from Jaime Harrison even though I don't live in SC, also Biden, Tom Perez, etc.). For various reasons I do not donate to politicians so I'm not sure how I got on this list. Anyway, I just got one from them that is made to look like it is from Madeleine Albright titled "I want to meet you, CrazyNotCrazie*, and so does Hillary Clinton." If I donate $7, I will be entered in a drawing to join them at a special event.

Interesting that they seem to be activating Hillary. I don't know how much they know about me but most everything about me would identify me as someone who strongly supported Hillary in 2016, so I don't know how widely this was sent. Because despite the narrative of Hillary being a polarizing candidate, there were a lot of people out there who were extremely enthusiastic about her. Though many of those who strongly supported her are still bitter at her for how she handled the campaign and screwing things up so might not like her as much now as they did in 2016.

*Note that if they really had addressed me by my DBR name that would be the final proof that I spend too much time here...

Might the invite to meet Hillary actually have come from a Republican troll pretending to be whoever seemed to send the message?

[JasonEvans]

The problem is that Trump has spent the last 4 years making everyone but his base happy. He's also spent time shrinking his base. At this point many folks voting for Biden are voting Biden simply to get rid of Biden. If the scandal is that horrible, I'm sure the Democrats will start impeachment hearings.

My wolfpack friend, I think you meant to say:

The problem is that Trump has spent the last 4 years making everyone but his base unhappy. He's also spent time shrinking his base. At this point many folks voting for Biden are voting Biden simply to get rid of Trump. If the scandal is that horrible, I'm sure the Republicans will start impeachment hearings.