Originally Posted by
rsvman
Not sure I qualify as a brainiac, but I think I can answer your question.
If Brian is a 55% free-throw shooter, then before he shoots the first free-throw, the chances that he will make both of them is 0.55 X 0.55, which is 29.75%, or approximately 30%.
HOWEVER, once he has already MADE the first free throw, the chance that he will make the second one is 55%, because the outcome of the first free throw is already known.
It's like tossing coins. There is a 50% chance you will throw heads on any one throw. The chance of throwing two heads in a row, however, is 50% of 50%, or 25%. Having already thrown one head, though, the chance the second throw will be heads is 50%.