Top Movies of Summer 2019

[PackMan97]

First Men In Black: International trailer... looks fairly good.

I wonder how many of the best parts they had to give away for that trailer?

That said, it looks like the perfect summer blockbuster.

[BD80]

I wonder how many of the best parts they had to give away for that trailer?

That said, it looks like the perfect summer blockbuster.

It was, 22 years ago.

[JasonEvans]

It was, 22 years ago.

Yeah, but I don't think Tessa Thompson would have been able to deliver her lines back then.

[Udaman]

I got locked out of the poll. My mistake.

My votes:

Absolute locks:

Spiderman
Toy Story 4

Almost a certain lock:

Avengers (I still think it makes north of $250M after this weekend, Monday and Tuesday)

My other two

Secret Lives of Pets (kids go see silly movies in the summer, and it is 4-7 year old age friendly)
Lion King

This means I'm similar to a bunch of people...which means we won't win (sorry to the rest of you, including JE)

If this was world wide, Pokemon would be in it for sure.

My dark horse movies are MIBlack, X-men, and Once Upon a Time. I think Alladin is going to disappoint.

[JasonEvans]

I got locked out of the poll. My mistake.

Sorry, Uda... I had to close the poll before that Avengers thing opened.

My dark horse movies are MIBlack, X-men, and Once Upon a Time. I think Alladin is going to disappoint.

Not sure what you mean by dark horse but I think X-Men will be a bit of a train wreck (despite it moving around to a supposedly better release date) and I think that franchise has little good will at this point. If it is mediocre, it will struggle to make even $100 mil. If it is good, I still think there is little chance it reaches more than maybe $160 mil.

Once Upon a Time could be awesome but it is really tough for an adult drama to make more than about $150 mil, especially in the summer when it is harder to get attention around all the tentpole action flicks.

I agree that MIBlack looks decent and it may get some Avengers halo from having Tessa Thompson and Chris Hemsworth.

There will be some raunchy comedy that breaks out, at least a little bit, I suspect. Seems like we get one or two of these every year. Not sure which one it will be though.

[PackMan97]

There will be some raunchy comedy that breaks out, at least a little bit, I suspect. Seems like we get one or two of these every year. Not sure which one it will be though.

I would say it's a long shot, but that is opening today...so no chance to be in the contest.

[JasonEvans]

I would say it's a long shot, but that is opening today...so no chance to be in the contest.

I saw Long Shot about a week ago. I laughed a lot but it is pretty silly and I don't think it has the elements necessary to capture the public attention...

...plus (as you say) it will get zero buzz because of Endgame hogging all the oxygen in the room.

[BD80]

I saw Long Shot about a week ago. I laughed a lot but it is pretty silly and I don't think it has the elements necessary to capture the public attention...

...plus (as you say) it will get zero buzz because of Endgame hogging all the oxygen in the room.

Isn't Long Shot just the expanded side plot from Hitch?

[PackMan97]

Initial estimates are $350 million for the opening weekend. We're going to have to chop at least $400 million off the take for this one...yowsers! That's some serious bank.

I can't believe I ever thought Disney was crazy for spending $4 billion to buy Marvel Studios back in the day.

Imagine going back in time 20 years and telling someone Marvel Comics as a franchise would end up crushing Star Wars?

[BD80]

…

Imagine going back in time 20 years and telling someone Marvel Comics as a franchise would end up crushing Star Wars?

Who would have guessed that Marvel would develop over 20 films with such continuity and unity of vision, whereas Star Wars would struggle to even number the films?

[Acymetric]

Who would have guessed that Marvel would develop over 20 films with such continuity and unity of vision, whereas Star Wars would struggle to even number the films?

What?

[PackMan97]

What?

I think he's saying, the first Star Wars is #4, while the fourth is #1 and the eleventh will be #9. Star Wars really does have a counting problem.

[PackMan97]

It's kinda cool that Captain Marvel has been essentially flat the past three weekends and she benefits from those going to see an advance of Endgame.

Marvel has probably milked another $20-30 million for Marvel having the dates so close together.

[JasonEvans]

We are going to be chopping around $400 mil off the Endgame boxoffice total. It is almost certainly going to be safe in our contest, but if a lot of fans don't go see it 2 or 3 times, this could actually be kinda interesting.

[Acymetric]

I'm just curious (this is my first time participating), does anyone ever choose "field"? Is this the first time nobody has?

[PackMan97]

I'm just curious (this is my first time participating), does anyone ever choose "field"? Is this the first time nobody has?

I picked "field" for the winter. There are too many big budget, big star, big sequels this summer for "field" imo.

[JasonEvans]

Whoa... $426.9 million.

That is what Avengers: Endgame is at as of Tuesday 4/30. So, that is the amount that will be deducted from the film's final boxoffice total to see whether or not it makes our top 5 of summer. Put another way, if it matches the $678.8 mil that Infinity War made, it will actually count as $251 mil for our contest.

-Jason "that said, I'll be mildly shocked if it does not end up making north of $750 million" Evans

[IrishDevil]

Here's an interesting breakdown of End Game's opening weekend in context. I will be curious to see the final numbers, but if the revenue trends remain proportional to the opening weekend, End Game does not seem to be in much danger of landing outside of our top 5.

[tbyers11]

Whoa... $426.9 million.

That is what Avengers: Endgame is at as of Tuesday 4/30. So, that is the amount that will be deducted from the film's final boxoffice total to see whether or not it makes our top 5 of summer. Put another way, if it matches the $678.8 mil that Infinity War made, it will actually count as $251 mil for our contest.

-Jason "that said, I'll be mildly shocked if it does not end up making north of $750 million" Evans

I think $750 million will be low for Endgame. Infinity War did a 2.64x multiplier of opening weekend (678/257) for its final total.

If Endgame does the same 2.64x (357*2.64) it will make $942 million. I think Endgame will make at least $850 million which translates to over $400 million for our contest. That's solidly in the top 5.

[JasonEvans]

I have not seen it yet, but early reviews are coming in on Detective Pikachu. The consensus is that it is good (cute and faithful to the franchise) but not great (a little too weird with a bit of a confusing story).

I am not yet convinced it will have the crossover appeal into non-Pokemon fans that it will need to get to the $250+ mil it will take to get into our top 5. Early indications are it will open with something like an $80-90 mil weekend which will put it in the running. We will know more next week.