MBB: Duke @UNC Pre-game and in-game thread (Now Feb 20 2100 EST)

[moonpie23]

may as well get this started……folks on IC are feeling pretty positive about their team now…….hope we take the same fire we've been taking into other road games lately….


tokoto and mcadoo on hood/parker?

[bbosbbos]

ghcgh

[DU82]

goduke.com has the game at 9PM EST, not 9:30. No doubt ESPN will drag things out (just like the Wake game actually started at ~9:15) but officially it appears to still be at nine.

[roywhite]

Over/under on the number of times McAdoo attempts to draw charging fouls on Jabari Parker?

One of the TDD posters has labeled him James Mackeral McAdoo for his flopping

It's a key matchup

[jimrowe0]

I am more worried about Meeks and Page. Meeks is a big body and has a variety of post moves and can hit short jumpers. I am not sure if Amile will be able to defend Meeks. However, Page is the key against UNC. If we can limit him then we should win easily. This will be a game where the bonusphere, 3 point shot, will give us a huge advantage. If we are knocking down threes and rebounding well then we should win by 15.

[Kedsy]

I wrote this article last year for Blue Devil Nation.

During Coach K's time here, when one of Duke/UNC is ranked and the other unranked, the ranked team has won 21 out of 25 times. Since 1991, when one of Duke/UNC is ranked and the other unranked, the ranked team has won 15 out of 16.

Obviously the past doesn't define the future, but I'm feeling fairly optimistic in this one.

[freshmanjs]

I wrote this article last year for Blue Devil Nation.

During Coach K's time here, when one of Duke/UNC is ranked and the other unranked, the ranked team has won 21 out of 25 times. Since 1991, when one of Duke/UNC is ranked and the other unranked, the ranked team has won 15 out of 16.

Obviously the past doesn't define the future, but I'm feeling fairly optimistic in this one.

do you still think they are no better than wake and not a top 50 team (maybe not top 100)?

[Kedsy]

do you still think they are no better than wake and not a top 50 team (maybe not top 100)?

I think they're top 100 -- that was hyperbole. If I was ranking by the eye test right now I'd put them near the bottom of the top 50. And, yeah, I don't think they're much better than Wake overall, if any.

UNC is currently ranked #26 by Pomeroy, #33 by Sagarin, and #36 in the RPI. I think the Heels are overrated in Pomeroy, and frankly a little high in the others, but computers know better than I do, so I suppose I could live with a ranking in the mid-30s. That said, Carolina still has work to do if they want to make the NCAA tournament.

[Dukehky]

I think they're top 100 -- that was hyperbole. If I was ranking by the eye test right now I'd put them near the bottom of the top 50. And, yeah, I don't think they're much better than Wake overall, if any.

UNC is currently ranked #26 by Pomeroy, #33 by Sagarin, and #36 in the RPI. I think the Heels are overrated in Pomeroy, and frankly a little high in the others, but computers know better than I do, so I suppose I could live with a ranking in the mid-30s. That said, Carolina still has work to do if they want to make the NCAA tournament.

We will be back in the top 10 this week, which will continue the streak of at least one of Duke or UNC being in the top ten when they play to very long. Anybody got the number on that one?

[Matches]

Two keys for us:

1. Stay in front of Paige.

2. Avoid foul trouble. McAdoo's weaknesses have been well-documented at this point, but he does get to the line an awful lot. I expect the Holes to feed the post pretty relentlessly with the idea of getting Amile and Jabari in foul trouble.

Defensively I don't think they can stop us. Their blueprint for beating us is for Paige to go off and to hammer us on the glass.

[Kedsy]

We will be back in the top 10 this week, which will continue the streak of at least one of Duke or UNC being in the top ten when they play to very long. Anybody got the number on that one?

If we're in the top 10 this week, it would be the 76th time in the last 78 Duke/UNC games that one or the other (or both) is in the top 10.

[BD80]

I wrote this article last year for Blue Devil Nation.

During Coach K's time here, when one of Duke/UNC is ranked and the other unranked, the ranked team has won 21 out of 25 times. Since 1991, when one of Duke/UNC is ranked and the other unranked, the ranked team has won 15 out of 16.

Obviously the past doesn't define the future, but I'm feeling fairly optimistic in this one.

Without looking at specific games, the schedule and nature of the polls would tend to justify the results. The Duke/unc games are at the ends of the halves of the conference schedule, so there is certainly enough basis to justify where the teams are ranked. Further, if Duke or unc are not ranked, there must be a pretty good reason.

[mpj96]

Kedsy's stats are nice to read but I have a hard time feeling like anything is a lock in this game. While far from world beaters UNC seems pretty well built to give us a run and they will be amped for this one. They are big down low and many of the teams we have struggled with this year share that trait. Hitting the boards, threes and shutting down Paige seem key to me.

Go Duke, gthc, gth.

[Kedsy]

If we're in the top 10 this week, it would be the 76th time in the last 78 Duke/UNC games that one or the other (or both) is in the top 10.

I just re-counted, and my new count says it will be the 73rd time in the last 76 Duke/UNC games that one or the other (or both) is in the top 10.

The last time neither team has been in the top 10 was in the 2003 ACC Tournament (Duke #12; UNC unranked). This week's game will be the 22nd Duke/UNC game since then.

[Saratoga2]

No long term fan will expect anything other than a tough game on Wednesday. We still have issues with defense and teams like to drive against us, pound the ball inside and back door us. Even the 3 ball worked against us at BC. We tend to have a problem with our bigs getting into foul trouble and/or tired, so I really hope Marshall recovers from his slight knee injury (sprain?) to play (especially against Meeks). UNC always likes to fast break and no doubt will try to out hustle us back up the floor. We need to keep fresh bodies in the game at guard and we do have a lot of talent to use.

Our main guys are going to get a lot of minutes, unless foul trouble gets in the way, so Quinn, Amile, Jabari, Rodney and Rasheed will be in the game a lot together. I prefer lines using Quinn with Matt and also Tyler with Rasheed. Together, they have the ball handling and defensive presence that I don't think Quinn and Tyler offer as a pair. In my view Andre can sub for Rodney and let him get a solid breather. Rodney did not perform at his best against BC with unsure ball handling and seemingly a tired personna. I also like Rasheed and Andre as the 1, 2 guards but that won't occur very often. Devastating offense and very solid defense with a lost in ball handling.

I prefer using Marshall and Semi to sub for Amile and Jabari. Asking Hood to fill in there is putting a lot on his shoulders, perhaps more than a guy with his build can handle. Josh can fill in but I wouldn't think his play has justified many minutes at this point.

So keep the pressure on UNC, make sure Meeks has a big body on him and keep fresh defensive guards to limit their outside shooters. Oh, and hit our foul shots.

[MChambers]

It's interesting to see how short UNC's bench is at this point. Here's the distribution from yesterday's game against ND:

Paige 36
McAdoo 35
Tokoto 33
McDonald 29
Johnson 21
Britt 19
Meeks 12
Hubert 6
James 4
Simmons 3
Hicks 3

Really looks like Duke is the deeper team, in both talent and bench usage.

[davekay1971]

Two interesting developments in the BC game that may translate to the UNC game

1) Plumlee and his "non-serious" knee issue. Plumlee was held out of a game against a small opponent, perhaps with our coach wanting him to be healthy to give good minutes against Meeks and UNC, which is a very good rebounding team overall. No doubt AJ will start and get as many minutes as his performance and the foul situation will allow, but I expect we'll see Plumlee and Hairston getting opportunity to wrestle with Carolina's big boys. Plumlee is the one guy we've got who can out-size and out-muscle meeks.

2) The Durham Herald-Sun write-up indicated that Duke made a halftime switch in defensive philosophy to not pick up quite so far out, and to not switch on everything. This may be a good tactic against UNC, who is a bag-o-weed, a loaded-handgun, and a borrowed car away from having a great outside shooter. Paige is a decent three point shooter, but I'd rather our guys take their chances with letting him hit a few, rather than playing right in his grill and him getting into the lane to cause havoc with our defense. Once upon a time (ahem, King Rice) K simply refused to have out guys play back, at all, even on a good driver/terrible outside shooter. I wonder if Cook/Thornton/Sulaimon will be given the instruction to stay one step back and guard the drive over the 3 on Paige.

Back to Kedsy's posts - UNC, a few weeks ago, was barely at top 50 team, if that. But they've improved in the last 3 weeks, and they probably deserve their mid 30s multi-dork-poll rating. I think, right now, they're safely on the inside of the bubble.

With all that, though, Duke has also improved in the last 3 weeks, and we've improved much more than they have, to a much higher level. UNC has improved to being a solidly-in-the-tournament team. Duke has improved to being a national championship contender. They have a size advantage. We have an advantage in every other aspect of the game...and I'm not willing to concede yet that Carolina's size advantage even translates to a rebounding advantage. We've been consistently out rebounding opponents, even big teams like FSU, since Jabari and the rest of the team made their obvious shift in focus to concentrate on the glass. Amile and Jabari have both proven to be great rebounders, bigger than their size would suggest. I wouldn't be surprised to see us end up holding our own on the glass...maybe even out rebounding them.

[MCFinARL]

It's interesting to see how short UNC's bench is at this point. Here's the distribution from yesterday's game against ND:

Paige 36
McAdoo 35
Tokoto 33
McDonald 29
Johnson 21
Britt 19
Meeks 12
Hubert 6
James 4
Simmons 3
Hicks 3

Really looks like Duke is the deeper team, in both talent and bench usage.

Generally speaking, I'd agree, although it wouldn't look like it if you compared yesterday's distribution for Duke:

Parker 38
Hood 30
Jefferson 29
Thornton 27
Sulaimon 25
Cook 26
Jones 6
Hairston 2
Ojeleye 8
Dawkins 8
Pagliuca 2

Of course if Marshall could have played this might have looked a little bit different, but maybe not much. Duke is capable of going deeper, but will they? We'll see.

[brevity]

I wrote this article last year for Blue Devil Nation.

During Coach K's time here, when one of Duke/UNC is ranked and the other unranked, the ranked team has won 21 out of 25 times. Since 1991, when one of Duke/UNC is ranked and the other unranked, the ranked team has won 15 out of 16.

Obviously the past doesn't define the future, but I'm feeling fairly optimistic in this one.

Last night I was wondering whether UNC would be ranked Monday, given their 5-game winning streak and the self-fulfilling hype machine for Wednesday's game. Looking at last week's AP rankings, I see four teams leaving the Top 25: #19 Oklahoma State, #21 Oklahoma, #22 Connecticut, #23 Gonzaga. Ohio State will climb back in, and SMU is ascendant after their crushing of Cincinnati, leaving two openings. But I just don't see UNC, which received no votes last week, leapfrogging all the unranked teams that did.

[Kedsy]

Obviously upsets happen all the time, and UNC has proven they can beat more talented teams like Michigan State, Louisville, and Kentucky. That said, basketball, while not a one-on-one game, is a game of matchups, and I think we match up pretty well with the Tar Heels. They've been consistently playing 7 guys (their 8th guy rarely if ever sees more than 6 minutes), and we've been essentially playing 8, so it's not that hard to compare.

Let's start with the backcourt. Everyone's worried about Paige, but a side-by-side comparison between Paige and Quinn Cook shows that, statistically, they're nearly identical players. Paige plays more minutes than Quinn and gets to the line more, so he scores a few more points, but other than that, the numbers are remarkably similar.

The rest of UNC's backcourt is Tokoto, McDonald, and Britt. Duke's corresponding players are Rasheed, Andre, and Tyler. Statistically and eye test, that's a HUGE advantage for Duke.

Now, to the frontcourt, where UNC is supposedly so much bigger than us. Now that Roy plays a shorter rotation, however, that advantage boils down to one McDonald's All-American vs. one McDonald's customer. Here's a side-by-side comparison of Kennedy Meeks and Amile Jefferson. Other than weight, Amile is superior in almost every statistical category. In rebounding they're about the same. Meeks ranks first in the conference in defensive rebounding percentage (26.1) and Amile ranks second (23.9); while in offensive rebounding percentage, Amile ranks 4th (15.2) in the conference and Meeks ranks fifth (14.2). Looking at the numbers, Meeks may have a very slight advantage, but that's probably ameliorated by the fact that Amile plays almost 30% more minutes (Meeks has averaged fewer than 15 mpg in his last three games). In addition, on offense, Amile is a far superior player statistically.

The rest of UNC's frontcourt is McAdoo and Brice Johnson vs. Jabari and Rodney. McAdoo (6'9, 230) is an inch taller than Jabari (6'8, 235) and 5 pounds lighter. Johnson (6'9, 210) is similarly an inch taller and 5 pounds lighter than Rodney (6'8, 215). So, no real size advantage for UNC and another HUGE talent advantage for Duke, again both by the statistics and the eye test. As a bonus, our 8th man, Marshall Plumlee is 7'0, 260 and can counteract in all ways if UNC decides to play their 8th man, Joel James (6'10, 280).

So, while I suppose it's possible for Paige to dominate Quinn and/or for Meeks to eat Amile up (hopefully not literally), or for some unheralded player like Brice Johnson to have a career day, the overall picture looks pretty good for Duke. That's not to say we'll definitely win -- we've already lost to less talented teams like Clemson and Notre Dame -- but honestly, if their shirts said "Georgia Tech" instead of "North Carolina," I think most of you would be a lot less worried.