I think the counterargument to this would be "if we test the whole team every day, then only the positive tested guys would be out." But that still leads to a substantial problem. Let's take your example where the Lakers are in the playoffs and LeBron tests positive. Even if the rest of the team tests negative and can play, they are now at a huge competitive disadvantage moving forward because LeBron would be out. And what if one team has a bunch of guys infected, such that their roster is decimated? Are they expected to proceed with a half team? Forfeit the game?
Even the scenario in which testing is both effective AND so quick and easy and available that it doesn't create a conflict with the healthcare system to conduct massive daily testing efforts for sporting participants has some huge logistical problems in the absence of a REALLY effective treatment and/or a vaccine.
I don't know the details (not a fan back then), but didn't Duke lose a NC game prior to 1980 when 1 key player was sick for the NC game? "Life" happens. And when Kareem got hurt in 1980, Magic played CENTER as a rookie and they beat the 76'ers for the NBA championship... *in* Philly. Maybe if this is the road that the NBA goes, the teams will be EXTRA careful to social distance, etc. Which maybe is a good thing.
I have more confidence in the intellect of most of the Duke grads on this board than I do of any level of government. I have less to work with on the NCAA - but I assume that schools such as Duke will have a say on what they decide - meaning that schools will not put their kids at risk if they think the NCAA is making the wrong decision. Or at least some schools presumably. Hopefully.
My hypothesis has been for the past while that we will have the NBA back in June/July – but with no fans in the seats. But television revenue would flow. It is too difficult to look out at this stage to November but prudence would suggest that college basketball can do the same, subject to the comfort level for air travel by colleges that do not have private jets (I assume that Duke does not fly commercial). I also assume that the television revenue is more fruitful than the ticket revenue. When you consider how quickly and emphatic schools such as Duke and UVA were to tell their students to go home, I would speculate that they will err heavily on the side of caution.
Not sure about other people on this board, but at this stage I am more worried about whether my kids will be attending real classes at college in August or online classes. I am paying for a UVA education with a University of Phoenix college experience. And do I sign a lease in advance to secure an apartment with the prospect of her sitting at home in Canada taking classes. That is the question for some parents.
Last edited by 1991 duke law; 04-18-2020 at 09:39 AM. Reason: Typo
As for Duke not having a key player for NC game prior to 1980, the only game I remember was 1966 final four game against Kentucky. Bobby Verga was sick,even though he played, was not a factor. But Larry Connelly for Kentucky was also sick but played too,so there you go. Hell,I was only 12 yrs.old then, so my memory isn't exactly fresh. But I see your point of how that could affect teams if one or several players test positive for the virus and can't play.Really throws a wrench into things.
MusicMan has the answer. Here's a bit more: Bob Verga was a second-team All-American in 1965-66, averaging 18.5 points per game. He was deathly ill for the national semi game against Kentucky. He was deathly ill, but played, scoring only four points in a four-point loss, 89-93, at Cole Field House. We had a good team that year, losing only three games in the regular season, all on the road and by three points or fewer. Jack Marin, second-team All-American and future NBA all-star, was also a star on that team.
What could have been! Hoop playoffs, of course, are wildly unpredictable. The winner that year was Texas Western, which was historic in that the Miners started five black players. Duke survived to get to the Final Four by surviving a Dean Smith slowdown game in the ACC semis, 21-20, and a regional semi win over St. Joe's, 76-74. in the Raleigh Coliseum.
Sage Grouse
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'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013
And let’s not forget the national championship game in 1990 (even though we might want to) which Bobby Hurley played despite an severe intestinal bug that caused him to run off the court to get to a bathroom during the game. Of course, we probably weren’t fated to win that game anyway.
Not a math major, I gather.
The final was 83-79.
Verga had some success early but quickly hit the wall.
More than a few people have speculated that Conley wasn't all that sick. Rupp wasn't above that kind of motivational ploy.
Duke defeated Utah the next day in the consolation game, by which time Verga had largely recovered. He scored 15 points.
To the list of sick players in big games add Mike Gminski, who had a stomach bug when Duke lost to St. John's in Reynolds in the 1979 East Region. G-man soldiered on, threw up at every timeout [on the sidelines, fortunately], got a hit of Gatorade, went back and did it again. This was the same game that Dennard missed with a sprained ankle and Bender missed after undergoing an appendectomy. Banks had a great game to keep it close.
And there were lots of rumors about much of the team being sick in the 2008 loss to West Virginia. Never really confirmed but DeMarcus Nelson did have some respiratory issues that cropped up from time to time.
Last edited by -jk; 04-18-2020 at 02:30 PM. Reason: fix quote tag
"We are not provided with wisdom, we must discover it for ourselves, after a journey through the wilderness which no one else can take for us, an effort which no one can spare us, for our wisdom is the point of view from which we come at last to regard the world." --M. Proust
My wife suggested I start a political party, our only platform plank is resuming all sports ASAP...sees like a sure winner, even if we lose a few tens of millions of citizens, at least we'll have something to watch on TV ...and my wife gets to pick out the White House china pattern...
I think you're missing the point, which that we haven't been able to develop a vaccine for every virus, and it is possible we won't for this one. Your response suggests you might have misread the post, there was no comparison of severity or transmissible. Just a (worrisome) thought: we haven't been able to develop vaccines for every virus (such as HIV or Herpes), what if we see similar issues with developing a COVID-19 vaccine? There might be good medical reasons why we can be sure that isn't the case already, but I don't think any of them are public knowledge.
If that was the point, I definitely missed it. I guess I have listened to one too many people make false equalencies in the past couple of weeks.
I apologize if I completely misunderstood and mischaracterized the actual point.
I do believe that making an effective vaccine for this may be considerably more difficult than people think. Coronaviruses mutate in three different ways, making them something of a moving target.