View Poll Results: What will be the result of the Midterms (vote twice!!)

Voters
48. You may not vote on this poll
  • GOP holds the House

    7 14.58%
  • Dems win the House by less than 12 seats

    20 41.67%
  • Dems win the House by 12-25 seats

    12 25.00%
  • Dems win the House by 25-38 seats

    7 14.58%
  • Dems win the House by 38+ seats

    1 2.08%
  • GOP gains 1 or more seats in the Senate (52-48 or more)

    29 60.42%
  • GOP holds the same number of seats in the Senate (51-49)

    7 14.58%
  • GOP loses seats but still holds the Senate (50-50 with Pence breaking tie)

    7 14.58%
  • Dems win the Senate (49-51 or more)

    2 4.17%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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Results 201 to 220 of 1870
  1. #201
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    It just seems like these Presidential cycles begin earlier and earlier...
    Some, i.e. me, would contend this is symptomatic of too many people without enough to do.

  2. #202
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    A lot of people were troubled by Reagan and his celebrity past, but at least he had been Governor of CA before becoming President.
    This is a fair point. I will continue to hope for the best.

  3. #203
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    I suspect you are correct, and I find it very unsettling.
    If the Ds hammer the Rs in the midterms, I might expect several PR-managed rollouts of celebrity candidacies for President over time, maybe starting in late 2018. I'd have to mull that over. You probably don't want to be the 10th celebrity to enter the D primary, but I'm not sure you want to be the 1st celebrity to enter either, even though you'd command all the media attention for awhile while throwing bombs at Trump and galvanizing the D base to retweet your bombs and share your press conference videos.

    A strong showing by the Ds in the midterms will lead to the D presidential primary topping the R total of 17 primary candidates for the 2016 cycle, imo. Everyone, politicians and celebrities alike, will want to be the one to KO a staggered, vulnernable Trump and become President.

  4. #204
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    A strong showing by the Ds in the midterms will lead to the D presidential primary topping the R total of 17 primary candidates for the 2016 cycle, imo. Everyone, politicians and celebrities alike, will want to be the one to KO a staggered, vulnernable Trump and become President.
    It will be interesting to see how many folks get into the race. Aside from Biden, no one is really seen as a clear front-runner and Uncle Joe is -- well -- an old, rich, white guy which does not feel like the profile of the Democratic party at this point. Typically, a presumptive candidate keeps a lot of other folks out of the race -- like Hillary did in 2016 or when a sitting VP runs -- but that is clearly not the case for the Dems in 2020. I am sure we will see over a dozen declared candidates on the Democratic side.

    I would expect at least two of the Democratic candidates to be people who are famous or notable for something other than politics. That could mean a Hollywood star, but I think the more likely candidates will be prominent corporate figures, like Carly Fiorina. I have already heard talk about Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz, Mark Cuban, "Lean In" author and Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg, and billionaire activist Tom Steyer (the guy running all the impeachment commercials).

    But, we are getting waaay ahead of ourselves. The midterms are just 97 days away.

    -Jason "according to this site, it is 97 days, 20 hours, 7 minutes, 33 seconds until Tuesday, November 6, 2018 at 7:00:00 am " Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  5. #205
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    On the Road to Nowhere
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    It will be interesting to see how many folks get into the race. Aside from Biden, no one is really seen as a clear front-runner and Uncle Joe is -- well -- an old, rich, white guy which does not feel like the profile of the Democratic party at this point. Typically, a presumptive candidate keeps a lot of other folks out of the race -- like Hillary did in 2016 or when a sitting VP runs -- but that is clearly not the case for the Dems in 2020. I am sure we will see over a dozen declared candidates on the Democratic side.

    I would expect at least two of the Democratic candidates to be people who are famous or notable for something other than politics. That could mean a Hollywood star, but I think the more likely candidates will be prominent corporate figures, like Carly Fiorina. I have already heard talk about Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz, Mark Cuban, "Lean In" author and Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg, and billionaire activist Tom Steyer (the guy running all the impeachment commercials).

    But, we are getting waaay ahead of ourselves. The midterms are just 97 days away.

    -Jason "according to this site, it is 97 days, 20 hours, 7 minutes, 33 seconds until Tuesday, November 6, 2018 at 7:00:00 am " Evans
    Aged, caucasian, and male yes, but my 2 seconds of research says his net worth is $900,000. While not chump change, it doesn't approach most national politicians. Heck, it was in my local rag last week that several local politicians have put upwards of $100,000 of their own money into their races. So even they have some major coin.

    Interesting note (to me): caucasian came up as mis-spelled. Is that a DBR thing or your host? I had to check my spelling, was worried I was going senile.

    Re earlier posts that the Republican Party is now the Trump Party, this is the latest ad by the guy leading the establishment pick for the R primary in Florida by 12 points:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5IbT9j30TtM

    Finally, any other Floridians out there? I hate to be the only one posting from our great and wacky state. Plus I'd really like to know what's going on in the rest of the country. Without doing my own research. Georgia has been the only state with multiple input.

  6. #206
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    Aged, caucasian, and male yes, but my 2 seconds of research says his net worth is $900,000. While not chump change, it doesn't approach most national politicians. Heck, it was in my local rag last week that several local politicians have put upwards of $100,000 of their own money into their races. So even they have some major coin.

    Interesting note (to me): caucasian came up as mis-spelled. Is that a DBR thing or your host? I had to check my spelling, was worried I was going senile.

    Re earlier posts that the Republican Party is now the Trump Party, this is the latest ad by the guy leading the establishment pick for the R primary by 12 points:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5IbT9j30TtM

    Finally, any other Floridians out there? I hate to be the only one posting from our great and wacky state. Plus I'd really like to know what's going on in the rest of the country. Without doing my own research. Georgia has been the only state with multiple input.
    I like language. My spell check has Caucasian come up with a capital first letter. Maybe that's it?

  7. #207
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Unlike Hilary who tried to head off all competition, Uncle Joe reportedly is telling folks to run if they want and don’t wait on him to decide.

  8. #208
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    On the Road to Nowhere
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    I like language. My spell check has Caucasian come up with a capital first letter. Maybe that's it?
    Caucasian.

    AHA! Proving once again I'm just not proper enough.

  9. #209
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Santa Cruz CA
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    A lot of people were troubled by Reagan and his celebrity past, but at least he had been Governor of CA before becoming President.
    Except for that birthplace thingy, Arnold would be a similar contender.

  10. #210
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    Aged, caucasian, and male yes, but my 2 seconds of research says his net worth is $900,000. While not chump change, it doesn't approach most national politicians. Heck, it was in my local rag last week that several local politicians have put upwards of $100,000 of their own money into their races. So even they have some major coin.

    Interesting note (to me): caucasian came up as mis-spelled. Is that a DBR thing or your host? I had to check my spelling, was worried I was going senile.

    Re earlier posts that the Republican Party is now the Trump Party, this is the latest ad by the guy leading the establishment pick for the R primary in Florida by 12 points:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5IbT9j30TtM

    Finally, any other Floridians out there? I hate to be the only one posting from our great and wacky state. Plus I'd really like to know what's going on in the rest of the country. Without doing my own research. Georgia has been the only state with multiple input.
    I'm from FL too. DeSantis is taking a huge risk in the general with his strategy. Looks like he's gonna run away with the primary, but what a strange commercial. I'm more interested in the Dem side for the governor's race. That one may belong to Graham, but it sure is a crowded field.

  11. #211
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    On the Road to Nowhere
    Quote Originally Posted by Jackson View Post
    I'm from FL too. DeSantis is taking a huge risk in the general with his strategy. Looks like he's gonna run away with the primary, but what a strange commercial. I'm more interested in the Dem side for the governor's race. That one may belong to Graham, but it sure is a crowded field.
    Agreed. Trump beat Clinton 48.6% to 47.4% here, a narrow victory and not a majority. That's about 100,000 votes of almost 10 million cast. I don't believe there will be any other candidates to pull away a few percent in this governor's race.

    I don't know what Graham is doing other than relying on name (her popular father) recognition. Although I got rid of cable last year, I am around other TVs and rarely see anything from her while I see stuff from a few other candidates. The others are more active on social media as well (from my very limited experience). She's probably watching the polls closely (risky also) and saving her money for the general.

  12. #212
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    Agreed. Trump beat Clinton 48.6% to 47.4% here, a narrow victory and not a majority. That's about 100,000 votes of almost 10 million cast. I don't believe there will be any other candidates to pull away a few percent in this governor's race.

    I don't know what Graham is doing other than relying on name (her popular father) recognition. Although I got rid of cable last year, I am around other TVs and rarely see anything from her while I see stuff from a few other candidates. The others are more active on social media as well (from my very limited experience). She's probably watching the polls closely (risky also) and saving her money for the general.
    I have just started seeing ads from Graham and received some things in the mail. Greene has a huge personal fortune and seems to be using that with tv ads. Gillum has a big presence on social media. The Senate race is going to end up being the most expensive in history. Control could come down to Nelson or Scott. The attack ads from both are already constant. Can't imagine what it's going to be like in October. Huge election in this state especially. Maybe the most important midterm ever.

  13. #213
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Boston area, OK, Newton, right by Heartbreak Hill
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    I also think there may be several celebrity (actor, singer, sports person) candidates this time around. Trump obviously was a celebrity who had no prior experience before becoming President. I have to imagine there are tons of celebrities (most of whom are D-leaning) who think they're smarter than Trump and can do the same. It's possible a few may even have a hero complex and think they're just the right person to save the country. (Whether they are correct in these assessments or not, I don't know, but I can easily imagine them thinking that way.)
    But not all. There's always Kanye West. The "meme"-ers would back him over Trump because of net neutrality.

  14. #214
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    I wonder if Joe Biden welcoming challengers has more to do with keeping a target off his back than it does with anything else. One of Hillary's biggest obstacles was that she had been campaigned against for more than a decade by the time the elections came around in 2016. You tell people something enough times, they start to believe it. Being seen as the front runner, especially a front runner with a big lead, opens one up to attack early and often (from organizations at home and abroad).

  15. #215
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by elvis14 View Post
    I wonder if Joe Biden welcoming challengers has more to do with keeping a target off his back than it does with anything else. One of Hillary's biggest obstacles was that she had been campaigned against for more than a decade by the time the elections came around in 2016. You tell people something enough times, they start to believe it. Being seen as the front runner, especially a front runner with a big lead, opens one up to attack early and often (from organizations at home and abroad).
    Dunno, good theory.

    Saw that Uncle Joe had something like a 7 point lead over Trump if the election were held today. Kinda useless, but kinda telling too.

  16. #216
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Dunno, good theory.

    Saw that Uncle Joe had something like a 7 point lead over Trump if the election were held today. Kinda useless, but kinda telling too.
    I would say Hillary had been under attack for close to three decades, not just one. I feel like all the negatives from Bill transferred over to Hillary. I know that whomever is nominated by one party will be instantly "unacceptable" to the many in the other party...but to already put forward someone who is instantly hated just seems counterproductive to winning elections. It would be like the R's nominating another Bush to run.

    Obama I think he great success in "purple" and "pink" states because he didn't have decades of baggage that he was lugging around.

    I think polls have become mostly useless. Hillary had an average poll margin of +6 two weeks before the 2016 election and had a +11 lead in the heat of primary season.
    Last edited by PackMan97; 08-01-2018 at 11:38 AM.

  17. #217
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    Dec 2014
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    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    I think polls have become mostly useless.

    Hillary had an average poll margin of +6 two weeks before the 2016 election and had a +11 lead in the heat of primary season.
    I've shared my distaste for polls, but you're forgetting Comey (11 days before the election) and the fact that national polls mean nothing to the Electoral College.

  18. #218
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    I've shared my distaste for polls, but you're forgetting Comey (11 days before the election) and the fact that national polls mean nothing to the Electoral College.
    Yes, I was forgetting Comey.

    I did not forget the electoral college, as you are correct, only the state polls matter.

  19. #219
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    Dec 2014
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    On the Road to Nowhere
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    Yes, I was forgetting Comey.

    I did not forget the electoral college, as you are correct, only the state polls matter.
    I wasn't really saying you forgot, it's a manner of speaking/writing. Sloppy of me.

    As a result of 2016, will national polls stop being discussed? Gore beat Bush in the national total in 2000, but that was about 500,000 votes. In 2016 the difference was about 3,000,000. I think another striking difference between 2000 and 2016 is that in 2000 a close vote was also a close Electoral College vote (271 - 266), vs. 2016 (304 - 227).

    I'd bet there is a much bigger emphasis on state polls going forward. It must really stink to live in a very red or very blue state where your Presidential vote doesn't really matter. And that's about 40 of the 50 states.

    I suppose a discussion of the Electoral College would be PPB?

  20. #220
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    Virginia Senate candidate Corey Stewart aide in the news today:

    https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/01/polit...ter/index.html

    A top consultant and spokesman for Corey Stewart, the Republican nominee for US Senate in Virginia, has used the term "house negro" to criticize the GOP establishment and disparaged prominent Civil Rights figures John Lewis and Rosa Parks.
    Incumbent Tim Kaine is ahead double digits in polls I saw so this article makes Stewart's uphill battle longer and steeper.

    https://www.richmond.com/news/virgin...bb5ec4b17.html
    Bob Green

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