GOP holds the House
Dems win the House by less than 12 seats
Dems win the House by 12-25 seats
Dems win the House by 25-38 seats
Dems win the House by 38+ seats
GOP gains 1 or more seats in the Senate (52-48 or more)
GOP holds the same number of seats in the Senate (51-49)
GOP loses seats but still holds the Senate (50-50 with Pence breaking tie)
Dems win the Senate (49-51 or more)
If the Ds hammer the Rs in the midterms, I might expect several PR-managed rollouts of celebrity candidacies for President over time, maybe starting in late 2018. I'd have to mull that over. You probably don't want to be the 10th celebrity to enter the D primary, but I'm not sure you want to be the 1st celebrity to enter either, even though you'd command all the media attention for awhile while throwing bombs at Trump and galvanizing the D base to retweet your bombs and share your press conference videos.
A strong showing by the Ds in the midterms will lead to the D presidential primary topping the R total of 17 primary candidates for the 2016 cycle, imo. Everyone, politicians and celebrities alike, will want to be the one to KO a staggered, vulnernable Trump and become President.
It will be interesting to see how many folks get into the race. Aside from Biden, no one is really seen as a clear front-runner and Uncle Joe is -- well -- an old, rich, white guy which does not feel like the profile of the Democratic party at this point. Typically, a presumptive candidate keeps a lot of other folks out of the race -- like Hillary did in 2016 or when a sitting VP runs -- but that is clearly not the case for the Dems in 2020. I am sure we will see over a dozen declared candidates on the Democratic side.
I would expect at least two of the Democratic candidates to be people who are famous or notable for something other than politics. That could mean a Hollywood star, but I think the more likely candidates will be prominent corporate figures, like Carly Fiorina. I have already heard talk about Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz, Mark Cuban, "Lean In" author and Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg, and billionaire activist Tom Steyer (the guy running all the impeachment commercials).
But, we are getting waaay ahead of ourselves. The midterms are just 97 days away.
-Jason "according to this site, it is 97 days, 20 hours, 7 minutes, 33 seconds until Tuesday, November 6, 2018 at 7:00:00 am " Evans
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
Aged, caucasian, and male yes, but my 2 seconds of research says his net worth is $900,000. While not chump change, it doesn't approach most national politicians. Heck, it was in my local rag last week that several local politicians have put upwards of $100,000 of their own money into their races. So even they have some major coin.
Interesting note (to me): caucasian came up as mis-spelled. Is that a DBR thing or your host? I had to check my spelling, was worried I was going senile.
Re earlier posts that the Republican Party is now the Trump Party, this is the latest ad by the guy leading the establishment pick for the R primary in Florida by 12 points:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5IbT9j30TtM
Finally, any other Floridians out there? I hate to be the only one posting from our great and wacky state. Plus I'd really like to know what's going on in the rest of the country. Without doing my own research. Georgia has been the only state with multiple input.
Unlike Hilary who tried to head off all competition, Uncle Joe reportedly is telling folks to run if they want and don’t wait on him to decide.
I'm from FL too. DeSantis is taking a huge risk in the general with his strategy. Looks like he's gonna run away with the primary, but what a strange commercial. I'm more interested in the Dem side for the governor's race. That one may belong to Graham, but it sure is a crowded field.
Agreed. Trump beat Clinton 48.6% to 47.4% here, a narrow victory and not a majority. That's about 100,000 votes of almost 10 million cast. I don't believe there will be any other candidates to pull away a few percent in this governor's race.
I don't know what Graham is doing other than relying on name (her popular father) recognition. Although I got rid of cable last year, I am around other TVs and rarely see anything from her while I see stuff from a few other candidates. The others are more active on social media as well (from my very limited experience). She's probably watching the polls closely (risky also) and saving her money for the general.
I have just started seeing ads from Graham and received some things in the mail. Greene has a huge personal fortune and seems to be using that with tv ads. Gillum has a big presence on social media. The Senate race is going to end up being the most expensive in history. Control could come down to Nelson or Scott. The attack ads from both are already constant. Can't imagine what it's going to be like in October. Huge election in this state especially. Maybe the most important midterm ever.
I wonder if Joe Biden welcoming challengers has more to do with keeping a target off his back than it does with anything else. One of Hillary's biggest obstacles was that she had been campaigned against for more than a decade by the time the elections came around in 2016. You tell people something enough times, they start to believe it. Being seen as the front runner, especially a front runner with a big lead, opens one up to attack early and often (from organizations at home and abroad).
I would say Hillary had been under attack for close to three decades, not just one. I feel like all the negatives from Bill transferred over to Hillary. I know that whomever is nominated by one party will be instantly "unacceptable" to the many in the other party...but to already put forward someone who is instantly hated just seems counterproductive to winning elections. It would be like the R's nominating another Bush to run.
Obama I think he great success in "purple" and "pink" states because he didn't have decades of baggage that he was lugging around.
I think polls have become mostly useless. Hillary had an average poll margin of +6 two weeks before the 2016 election and had a +11 lead in the heat of primary season.
Last edited by PackMan97; 08-01-2018 at 11:38 AM.
I wasn't really saying you forgot, it's a manner of speaking/writing. Sloppy of me.
As a result of 2016, will national polls stop being discussed? Gore beat Bush in the national total in 2000, but that was about 500,000 votes. In 2016 the difference was about 3,000,000. I think another striking difference between 2000 and 2016 is that in 2000 a close vote was also a close Electoral College vote (271 - 266), vs. 2016 (304 - 227).
I'd bet there is a much bigger emphasis on state polls going forward. It must really stink to live in a very red or very blue state where your Presidential vote doesn't really matter. And that's about 40 of the 50 states.
I suppose a discussion of the Electoral College would be PPB?
Virginia Senate candidate Corey Stewart aide in the news today:
https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/01/polit...ter/index.html
Incumbent Tim Kaine is ahead double digits in polls I saw so this article makes Stewart's uphill battle longer and steeper.A top consultant and spokesman for Corey Stewart, the Republican nominee for US Senate in Virginia, has used the term "house negro" to criticize the GOP establishment and disparaged prominent Civil Rights figures John Lewis and Rosa Parks.
https://www.richmond.com/news/virgin...bb5ec4b17.html
Bob Green