View Poll Results: What will be the result of the Midterms (vote twice!!)

Voters
48. You may not vote on this poll
  • GOP holds the House

    7 14.58%
  • Dems win the House by less than 12 seats

    20 41.67%
  • Dems win the House by 12-25 seats

    12 25.00%
  • Dems win the House by 25-38 seats

    7 14.58%
  • Dems win the House by 38+ seats

    1 2.08%
  • GOP gains 1 or more seats in the Senate (52-48 or more)

    29 60.42%
  • GOP holds the same number of seats in the Senate (51-49)

    7 14.58%
  • GOP loses seats but still holds the Senate (50-50 with Pence breaking tie)

    7 14.58%
  • Dems win the Senate (49-51 or more)

    2 4.17%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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Results 181 to 200 of 1870
  1. #181
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    Did you consider Elizabeth Dole a carpetbagger when she ran for Jessie Helm's Senate Seat? I know she grew up in NC and went to Duke, but after that she basically lived in Washington, DC (and perhaps Kansas during election season). It had been over 40 years since she called NC home.

    I would say the key to a successful "non-resident" run for office is having a name that is well known (as Clinton, Dole and Romney have) as well as access to power. Why would NY want Hillary as a Senator? They answer seems simple, there is instant power in having her as your representative. The same with Dole who had been working in various White Houses since 1960, and the same with Romney who as a Governor and then Presidential Candidate has a lot of access your average run in the mill politician isn't going to have.
    Each situation is different, and each jurisdiction has different laws regarding residency. If I recall, Hillary's residency in NY was questionable prior to her senate run. She has kept NY as her primary residence ever since, though.

    On a more local level, Rahm Emanuel went through a lot of legal hoops before he ran for mayor of Chicago. He had very close ties to the city but prior to his run, he had been living in DC while working for Obama. I believe he still had a home in Chicago but was renting it out and the law was that Chicago had to have been his primary residence for a year prior to election. The courts went back and forth on this but ultimately he was allowed to run. Personally, I think this was a no-brainer in his favor as his most recent primary residence was Chicago and he had only moved to serve in the federal government. Also, the nature of the position he was running for meant that he was going to end up living there - he wasn't going to be mayor and commute from DC.

  2. #182
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    San Diego, California
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    That reminded me of a story I read recently about a candidate running in Alaska.
    There are no ABA or AALS-approved law schools located within Alaska. Duke recognized the opportunity and created the Alaska Law Review with the Alaska bar. I wonder how many ALR staff have been to Alaska?

  3. #183
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Winston’Salem
    Quote Originally Posted by RPS View Post
    There are no ABA or AALS-approved law schools located within Alaska. Duke recognized the opportunity and created the Alaska Law Review with the Alaska bar. I wonder how many ALR staff have been to Alaska?
    *raises hand*

    The law school sends ALR staff every spring. Or, at least, they used to “back in the day.”
    "Amazing what a minute can do."

  4. #184
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    San Diego, California
    Quote Originally Posted by Tripping William View Post
    *raises hand*

    The law school sends ALR staff every spring. Or, at least, they used to “back in the day.”
    Good. ALR was created after my time. Talk about "back in the day"?!

  5. #185
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by RPS View Post
    Good. ALR was created after my time. Talk about "back in the day"?!
    When I was in law school, the Russians still owned Alaska.

  6. #186
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    On the Road to Nowhere
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    Thanks. Glad to see the thread kick-started, lots of other responses, and I would really like those from other states to chime in. For newbies, take a look at the 2018 Presidential thread and you'll see how the mods kept it interesting and well-behaved. Please don't make it difficult for them.

    Florida appears much the same as Georgia (I posted more a couple of months back...our primaries aren't until the end of August so as things heat up I might have more info). For the Rs, Adam Putnam is the establishment...Florida House, US House, Florida Commissioner of Agriculture for the last 8 years while we've had an R Governor (term-limited out). Ron DeSantis is Trump-endorsed. He won my US House seat in 2012, was going to run for Senator in 2016 until Rubio dropped out of the Presidential race, and is now running for Governor. Obviously quite ambitious (as most of them are). I think it's a toss-up at this point. DeSantis has started to make things interesting, you may have heard his comment "...you look at this girl Ocasio-Cortez or whatever she is...". Interesting strategy in a state which already had a large Latino/Latina population, and after last hurricane season got a huge influx of Puerto Ricans (Ocasio-Cortez's mother was born in Puerto Rico).

    Not much excitement on the D side for Governor yet. I think 5 are in the race, somebody should start stirring the pot soon.


    I don't like DeSantis. He was a carpetbagger, rented a condo in the very tippy-top northern point of our District to get the seat. And now the D leader for our District is doing the same. She has a huge lead in money because she worked in either the Clinton or Obama administration. Therefore lots of outside money. I won't vote for anyone who games the system this way, although in Florida you don't actually have to live in your District. Please keep your comments about my state civil.
    So some polls just came out. I hate polls. For example, this Mason-Dixon poll telephoned 625 people in Florida. I could tell you just as much by walking down my street. So with a grain of salt...

    DeSantis leads Putnam by 41-29 with 28% undecided. Word is it's the Trump effect, and he will be stumping for DeSantis in Tampa this week. There's actually 6 other people in the race, which I didn't even know. For good reason, all you math wizards will note collectively they're getting 2%. Interesting side note...17% are not aware of DeSantis and he's the big leader. Stupid poll, I feel a little dirty even sharing it. Or stupid people, the poll was of likely voters and they don't even know their candidates.

    For the Ds, the leader in the 5-way race has just 27%, with 25% undecided. I think she (daughter of a very popular Florida politician) will win, but she shouldn't feel very comfortable one month from the primary.

    In the Senate race, 3-term incumbent D Bill Nelson leads term-limited governor R Rick Scott 45-44 with 11% undecided. (That's from February, but nobody's moving the needle much)

  7. #187
    Not mid-term news, but an interesting preview into 2020... Eric Holder is interested in potentially running for the top job.

    Eric Holder says he's interested in being President

    https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/28/polit...ent/index.html

  8. #188
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Not mid-term news, but an interesting preview into 2020... Eric Holder is interested in potentially running for the top job.

    Eric Holder says he's interested in being President

    https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/28/polit...ent/index.html
    I'm interested in being President as well...that doesn't mean I actually have a chance. Although, to be honest, I'd make a much better Supreme Dictator or Emperor than I would President

    This strike me as a story for a slow news day...that's good I guess.

  9. #189
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    I'm interested in being President as well...that doesn't mean I actually have a chance. Although, to be honest, I'd make a much better Supreme Dictator or Emperor than I would President

    This strike me as a story for a slow news day...that's good I guess.
    I am most definitely not interested in being President. So you have less competition.

  10. #190
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Okay, this accusation takes the cake for me:

    https://twitter.com/lesliecockburn/s...434959362?s=21

    Virginia congressional race

  11. #191
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Okay, this accusation takes the cake for me:

    https://twitter.com/lesliecockburn/s...434959362?s=21

    Virginia congressional race
    Oh wow...LOL!!!
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  12. #192
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    Oh wow...LOL!!!
    The comments are priceless as well.

    My favorite so far: "I wouldn't say I'm Yetisexual. But I am Yeti-curious."

  13. #193
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Not mid-term news, but an interesting preview into 2020... Eric Holder is interested in potentially running for the top job.
    The actual Presidential thread will probably have to be started soon after the mid-terms anyways. It just seems like these Presidential cycles begin earlier and earlier, and I wouldn't be surprised if a few big names announce their candidacies before the year is out.

  14. #194
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    The actual Presidential thread will probably have to be started soon after the mid-terms anyways. It just seems like these Presidential cycles begin earlier and earlier, and I wouldn't be surprised if a few big names announce their candidacies before the year is out.
    Yep. Somewhere around Jan/Feb of 2019, things get heated up once the new congress is in their seats. I suspect how the mid-terms play out will have a big effect. I doubt very much that Trump actually gets any challengers, barring a Mueller shakeup or unforeseen scandal, which is a bit of a surprise to me. I didn't expect the acceptance of President Trump by the GOP to the extent that it is. However, if the republicans get shellacked in the mid-terms, it will be interesting, since that would be viewed as a referendum on his presidency.
    For now, that is a HUGE "if".
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  15. #195
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    Yep. Somewhere around Jan/Feb of 2019, things get heated up once the new congress is in their seats. I suspect how the mid-terms play out will have a big effect. I doubt very much that Trump actually gets any challengers, barring a Mueller shakeup or unforeseen scandal, which is a bit of a surprise to me. I didn't expect the acceptance of President Trump by the GOP to the extent that it is. However, if the republicans get shellacked in the mid-terms, it will be interesting, since that would be viewed as a referendum on his presidency.
    For now, that is a HUGE "if".
    I think Trump will get at least one challenger -- someone like a John Kasich or Jeff Flake -- for two reasons. First: there are some Republicans that want to "take back their party" even though as you say the base of the party has bought into Trump full throat. Second: there is always the chance that Trump either may withdraw his name from consideration or have it removed by impeachment before the Charlotte GOP Convention in the summer of '20, and someone will want to be there in case of a convenient opening.

    (A note that I assume is obvious but will add: I am neither advocating nor denigrating whether removal by impeachment should happen. It certainly is in the realm of possibility, though, until we see (a) how the House and Senate look after the mid-terms; (b) what Mueller does or does not ultimately find; and (c) what happens between now and then in this twitter-quick world of ours).

  16. #196
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    Yep. Somewhere around Jan/Feb of 2019, things get heated up once the new congress is in their seats. I suspect how the mid-terms play out will have a big effect. I doubt very much that Trump actually gets any challengers, barring a Mueller shakeup or unforeseen scandal, which is a bit of a surprise to me. I didn't expect the acceptance of President Trump by the GOP to the extent that it is. However, if the republicans get shellacked in the mid-terms, it will be interesting, since that would be viewed as a referendum on his presidency.
    For now, that is a HUGE "if".
    I also think there may be several celebrity (actor, singer, sports person) candidates this time around. Trump obviously was a celebrity who had no prior experience before becoming President. I have to imagine there are tons of celebrities (most of whom are D-leaning) who think they're smarter than Trump and can do the same. It's possible a few may even have a hero complex and think they're just the right person to save the country. (Whether they are correct in these assessments or not, I don't know, but I can easily imagine them thinking that way.)

  17. #197
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    I also think there may be several celebrity (actor, singer, sports person) candidates this time around. Trump obviously was a celebrity who had no prior experience before becoming President. I have to imagine there are tons of celebrities (most of whom are D-leaning) who think they're smarter than Trump and can do the same. It's possible a few may even have a hero complex and think they're just the right person to save the country. (Whether they are correct in these assessments or not, I don't know, but I can easily imagine them thinking that way.)
    Michael Avenatti has already stated that he may run "if the right candidate" does not do so. He has also been pretty open in tweeting that an outsider should be nominated, because Trump dusted all of the conventional politicians in his wake last time around.

    I would not be surprised to see someone from Hollywood run, either. (Schwarzenegger likely would have run as a R in the past if not precluded by the Constitution.)

    I'm still weighing my options, FWIW. "Tan, rested and ready -- OPK in twenty twent-ay"

  18. #198
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    On the Road to Nowhere
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Michael Avenatti has already stated that he may run "if the right candidate" does not do so. He has also been pretty open in tweeting that an outsider should be nominated, because Trump dusted all of the conventional politicians in his wake last time around.

    I would not be surprised to see someone from Hollywood run, either. (Schwarzenegger likely would have run as a R in the past if not precluded by the Constitution.)

    I'm still weighing my options, FWIW. "Tan, rested and ready -- OPK in twenty twent-ay"
    I'm still a fan of "Vote Early. Vote Often."

  19. #199
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    I also think there may be several celebrity (actor, singer, sports person) candidates this time around. Trump obviously was a celebrity who had no prior experience before becoming President. I have to imagine there are tons of celebrities (most of whom are D-leaning) who think they're smarter than Trump and can do the same. It's possible a few may even have a hero complex and think they're just the right person to save the country. (Whether they are correct in these assessments or not, I don't know, but I can easily imagine them thinking that way.)
    I suspect you are correct, and I find it very unsettling.

  20. #200
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    I suspect you are correct, and I find it very unsettling.
    A lot of people were troubled by Reagan and his celebrity past, but at least he had been Governor of CA before becoming President.

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