Originally Posted by
Kedsy
But this year's team might have a "generational talent" in Paolo, no?
Plus, I'm not convinced the table shows a lack of post-season success (though it might show a low sample size). There are 9 rows in the updated table. The 2022 team hasn't hit the post-season yet, the 2020 team's post-season was canceled. The 2021 team didn't get invited to the NCAAs but went undefeated in the ACCT before that postseason, too, was canceled. The 2004 Final Four team is on the list, along with the Elite Eight Zion team (2019) and the NCAA championship game Grant senior team (1994). The 2002 team was by far the best team in college basketball that season and when they lost in the NCAAT, it was not because of three-point shooting (they shot 37.5% on threes in the Indiana loss) but really about foul shooting (10 for 19 from the line). Similarly, the 2003 team shot 38.5% from three in their Sweet 16 loss to Kansas. So really, out of nine teams only the 2009 team (18.5% from three in loss to Villanova) fits your recipe (and they still made the Sweet 16). Not to mention that the first table also included the 1998 Elite Eight and 1989 Final Four teams.
Ok, I dug into the data a bit. First, I agree with you that this is not going to be super valuable because of 1) small sample size, as you indicated; 2) the volatility of post season results (ie the Zion team was one bucket away from going to the FF where it had a good chance to cut down the nets, but was also a bucket away from losing to UCF and to VT), and 3) the definition of post season success, which is subjective (ie many programs are happy with sweet sixteen but many Duke fans think anything other than a FF is a let down; also people value consistency differently (would you rather go the EE every year, or miss the tournament one year and go the FF the next?)).
All that said, here is the relative rank of every Duke team's 3p% going back to 1993 (as far back as I could find; data from of sports-reference.com), leaving out 2020 since there was no tournament:
Code:
Year 3p% Rank Seed Result
2021 35.2 110 Missed Missed
2019 30.8 328 1 Elite Eight
2018 37.2 71 2 Elite Eight
2017 37.8 60 2 Second Round Loss
2016 38.5 25 4 Sweet 16
2015 38.7 29 1 Champs
2014 39.5 15 3 First Round Loss
2013 39.9 6 2 Elite Eight
2012 37.1 56 2 First Round Loss
2011 37.4 46 1 Sweet 16
2010 38.5 27 1 Champs
2009 34.9 130 2 Sweet 16
2008 37.7 63 2 Second Round Loss
2007 38.1 49 6 First Round Loss
2006 38.6 31 1 Sweet 16
2005 38 35 1 Sweet 16
2004 36.4 83 1 Final Four
2003 36.3 91 3 Sweet 16
2002 36.3 91 1 Sweet 16
2001 38.5 27 1 Champs
2000 38.3 23 1 Sweet 16
1999 39.6 7 1 Runner Up
1998 36.9 62 1 Elite Eight
1997 38.9 13 2 Second Round Loss
1996 37.6 49 8 First Round Loss
1995 38.1 36 Missed Missed
1994 36.5 85 2 Runner Up
1993 39.7 27 3 Second Round Loss
As you noted, here are our bottom 10 3pt shooting teams by rank:
Code:
Year 3p% Rank Seed Result
1998 36.9 62 1 Elite Eight
2008 37.7 63 2 First Round Loss
2018 37.2 71 2 Elite Eight
2004 36.4 83 1 Final Four
1994 36.5 85 2 Runner Up
2003 36.3 91 3 Sweet 16
2002 36.3 91 1 Sweet 16
2021 35.2 110 n/a Missed
2009 34.9 130 2 Sweet 16
2019 30.8 328 1 Elite Eight
In these 10 seasons, we had 2 Final Fours, 5 Elite 8s, 8 Sweet 16s, a second round exit, and a year we missed the tournament.
In contrast, here are our best 10 years according to 3p shooting rank:
Code:
Year 3p% Rank Seed Result
2013 39.9 6 2 Elite Eight
1999 39.6 7 1 Runner Up
1997 38.9 13 2 First Round Loss
2014 39.5 15 3 Second Round Loss
2000 38.3 23 1 Sweet 16
2016 38.5 25 4 Sweet 16
2010 38.5 27 1 Champs
2001 38.5 27 1 Champs
1993 39.7 27 3 First Round Loss
2015 38.7 29 1 Champs
In these 10 seasons, we had 3 titles, 4 Final Fours, 5 Elite 8s, 7 Sweet 16s, 2 second round exits, and a first round exit.
Again, small sample size plus small differences in ranks plus volatility of a single elimination tournament, but this would say I'd much rather be a good shooting team come tournament time.