I had predicted that Goldwire would settle in as just Tres occasional backup. I think that’s happening. And that Joey Baker might settle in as a designated zone buster. I know GA State was shifting defenses but that may have been what we witnessed. Those were two big 3s and I think we will continue to see Joey, but maybe not much against M2M defenses.
Some poster said that this team reminded him of the '87 team. I can totally see the parallels. The year following an iconic team. A lockdown D oriented point guard who has the ability to step up on offense. A bunch of interlocking parts that need coach to work his magic more aggressively than when he has transcendent talent. I'm looking forward to the growth of this team, for sure.
I know you understand this but to be crystal clear this season's 32.5% 3pt stat comes from approximately 1200-1300 games (353 teams x ~3.5 games per team). But yes the first 3 or 4 games are likely not representative of season long shooting ability. Hopefully players get better as the season progresses. Also weaker players get fewer minutes as league games come into play. OTOH for most teams the competition gets tougher in league play (is that true on average?) and that fact may hurt 3pt%.
In any case the comparison needed would be mid-November 3pt% rates for previous seasons. I guess I could try the waybackmachine...
Edit: I guess competition can't get tougher on average across the season since the same 353 teams are playing. But defense will get better later in the season, counteracting some of the improvement in shooting.
Last edited by Skydog; 11-17-2019 at 03:20 PM.
IIRC....which is not a given...the 87 team was maybe the deepest rotation K used - at least for a good part of the year. It was maybe the most critical year of K's tenure, as it showed that the 86 team was not an outlier based on one recruiting class. That team was a pleasant surprise, getting to the Sweet 16.
Looking only at close (under 20 points) games after January 1, from the standpoint of how many guys played 10+ minutes in such games, the 1987 team played the 11th deepest rotation out of K's 39 seasons at Duke. So, not the deepest, not even top 10, but pretty deep (top third).
That 1987 team.
https://www.dukebasketballreport.com...ike-krzyzewski
And yes, I do see some similarities.
The '86-'87 team lost freshman Phil Henderson to academics pretty early in the season, leaving them with nine ACC-level players; Smith, Ferry, King, Amaker, Strickland, Snyder and Brickey played a lot, Nessley a little more than 10mpg, Abdelnaby played sparingly. King missed some games with a broken wrist, Strickland had some shoulder issues.
So, no, I never thought of this as an especially deep team.
Based on a 6+ mpg threshold, it looks like the 1987 team was one of the deeper Duke teams, although more so in Nov/Dec than for the entire season. The 86-87 team regularly played 9 guys in Nov/Dec and then regularly played 8 guys after Phil Henderson's last game on Dec 31.
Looking at Nov/Dec only
The 1986-87 team played 5 games in Nov/Dec which were decided by 20 points or less.
- Eight or more guys played 6+ minutes in 100% of these games (5 of 5). That has happened 9 other times between 1981-2019.
- Nine or more guys played 6+ minutes in 80% of these games (4 of 5). That is the second highest percentage between 1981-2019.
- An average of 18.2 mpg went to players outside the top 7. That is the 5th highest between 1981-2019.
Looking at the entire season
The 1986-87 team played 26 games decided by 20 points or less.
- Eight or more guys played 6+ minutes in 88% of these games (23 of 26). That is tied for the the 4th highest percentage between 1981-2019.
- Nine or more guys played 6+ minutes in 15% of these games (4 of 26). That is the 17th most between 1981-2019.
- An average of 11.8 mpg went to players outside the top 7. This is the 14th most between 1981-2019.
For what it is worth, the current Duke team is averaging 26.5 mpg to players outside the top 7 in "close" games. That is just barely behind the 2008 team, which is the all-time leader under Coach K for most mpg to players outside the top 7 in close Nov/Dec games (28.3 mpg). The most a Coach K team has averaged for an entire season is 18.3 (in the 1997 season).
Strickland was a Parade All-America at Mount Airy but played his first two seasons behind Johnny Dawkins.
John Smith was a marginal top-100 prep player going into his senior season in Maryland. But he was academically ineligible most of the season and was pretty unheralded. He barely played as a freshman on a team that included seniors Mark Alarie and Jay Bilas and fellow freshman Danny Ferry.
So, when he started as a sophomore ahead of McDonald's All-Americans Marty Nessley and Alaa Abdelnaby, it was a stunner.
Smith ended his getting a doctorate at Maryland in, I believe mathematics, and went into higher education.
Yeah, Kevin played for North Surry HS, which has a Mount Airy (aka Mayberry) address but not the same as Mt. Airy HS. Other Northwest NC products who played for Duke include Kenny Dennard from South Stokes (King, NC) and Harry Giles from Winston-Salem who played for High Point Wesleyan and finished at Oak Hill in Virginia. And I guess we could include the Plumlees, originally from Indiana, but played high school ball at Christ School in Arden, NC.
Just finally watched the replay of this game after work and how much cocaine was Cory Alexander on? That dude chattered on and on the ENTIRE game. I'm not even sure there was another commentator.