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  1. #1

    MBB: Duke @ Louisville (Sat 1/23, 4:00 pm, ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

    It's desperate times in the ACC for the Blue Devils and Cardinals. The two teams are each coming off a two-game losing streak. Duke will look to close out it's three-game road trip strong while Louisville will be looking to regroup following subpar efforts against the two Florida teams, Miami and Florida State. This is a must-win for both teams. Which team will come out aggressive?

    Head Coach Chris Mack is dealing with health issues, in particular up front. The team is clearly missing 6'11" SR Malik Williams, lost due to a foot injury for the season to date, and 6'10" SO F Aidan Igiehon, dealing with a groin injury since December. Neither are expected to be available this weekend. The interior defense for Louisville has been particularly bad the past couple of games. Making matters worse, the team has gone ice cold from 3-point range in their two recent losses, shooting a combined 7-36 (19.4%) from beyond the arc. This is a very young team and they have been playing like one lately.

    The star of the team this year is 6'1" SR Carlick Jones, a transfer from Radford. The guard does it all on the court, averaging a team high in points (17.9) and assists (4.7) while providing a big help on the glass (4.8). He is a pest on the court and can score at all three levels. He does struggle a bit with the mid-range jumper, so keeping him away from the rim would be a good way to slow him down some. Outside of Jones, the Cardinals are very, very young right now. The rest of the major contributors are freshmen and sophomores. Sharing the backcourt with Jones is 6'5" SO G David Johnson. Johnson had a breakout game against Duke last season and was tabbed as a potential breakout player for this season. While Jones has rightfully gotten a lot of attention, Johnson has more or less lived up to the expectations. He's shooting the ball extremely well this year from behind the arc (43.5%) and at the FT line (76.7%). Shooting was the biggest area of concern for Johnson, and one he has seemingly answered. He's playing very well this year and providing a good Robin to Jones' Batman. Rounding out the backcourt rotation is 6'5" FR Dre Davis. He has not shot the ball well from deep so far this year, but he's provided flashes of potential, including a 21-point outburst against a decent Western Kentucky squad this year. Davis does most of his damage close to the rim.

    Up front, the Cardinals are relying on a promising but raw group of players. The star so far has been 6'8" FR Jae'Lyn Withers. He's been the top rebounder and has operated effectively around the hoop with more limited success when left open for jumpers. Another promising young forward has been 6'8" SO Quinn Slazinski, a wing playing more of a stretch-4 role this year. Another SO, 6'7" Samuel Williamson, had a lot of hype as a Top 25 recruit coming out of high school. However, the athletic wing has struggled to translate that into consistent success so far in his career in Louisville. Last season, Williamson played sparingly behind all-conference player Jordan Nwora. This year, he has started every game but has struggled to stand out. He's been unable to string together two good games so far this year. The other forward getting playing time for this young team is 6'8" FR JJ Traynor. He's the most natural post player on the team but averages just 15 minutes per game.

    Louisville is injured, playing its worst basketball of the season, and desperate to get things back on track this year. They had high hopes after a 9-1 start and wins over Pitt, Kentucky, and Virginia Tech. Duke, for its part, is also trying to right the ship. After their own health issues, Jalen Johnson put on a performance in a losing effort on Tuesday night. He and Matthew Hurt should have distinct advantages up front against this undersized Cardinal frontcourt. On the other hand, Louisville has two guards in Johnson and Davis that have the profile of the type that has given the team fits in recent years. Will Duke's zone defense cause further havoc for the Cardinals? The zone could do an effective job of keeping Jones, Johnson, and Davis out of the lane. Duke will have to rebound well to keep the Cardinals from getting opportunistic buckets. Ultimately, this will be a matter of playing up to potential for each team. Can Duke finally start figure it out or will Louisville get its season back on the right path first?

  2. #2
    i'd like to see a starting 5 of Hurt, Johnson, Moore, J-Gold and Steward. I'd like to see a zone-press defense which turns into m2m once/if the ball crosses half court. Johnson obviously deserves to start over Jaemyn Brakefield, but i'd like to see Moore start b/c he has a) experience b) length c) defensive intensity which Jeremy Roach does not have. Also, i'd like to see Roach shooting fewer 3s and get back to being a PG, but one who looks to find open players.
    I think the starting 5 i listed would be able to bring defensive intensity that we haven't seen yet this year. Hurt + Johnson + Steward is a good offensive trio, with each having a different skillset. The JJ drive n kick to an open Moore was a good offensive play vs Pitt, and i'd like to see if that could become a more regular feature. Letting J-Gold loose to wreak havoc and pick up steals also allows him to play to his strengths. Bringing Roach off the bench to spell J-Gold, DJ, or Moore, and allowing Brakefield to spell Hurt-JJ-Moore allows everyone to play with more intensity.
    I don't see how much value playing any of the other guys gives this team. The combo of Baker-Tapé-Williams-Coleman ought to combine for ~10 minutes.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quick note, the game will be on Sat the 23rd, not the 22nd.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
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    New Orleans, Louisiana
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    Quick note, the game will be on Sat the 23rd, not the 22nd.
    Postponement by typo. How refreshing.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    For those of you who don't read the home page.

    https://www.dukebasketballreport.com...-jalen-johnson

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    For those of you who don't read the home page.

    https://www.dukebasketballreport.com...-jalen-johnson
    Re: Your entry:
    When things are going wrong, get back to the basics.

    Okay, it’s a cliche, but cliches become cliches because they have an element of truth.
    I believe it was architect Frank Lloyd Wright who, when a book he wrote was criticized for being "full of cliches," reportedly said, "They weren't cliches until after I invented them."
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    For those of you who don't read the home page.

    https://www.dukebasketballreport.com...-jalen-johnson
    Great article, Jim. Minor quibble, though: 6 for 28 is 21.4%, not 28.6%.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Chesapeake, VA.
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Great article, Jim. Minor quibble, though: 6 for 28 is 21.4%, not 28.6%.
    Who invited the math major? [wink emoji here]
       

  9. #9
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    Feb 2007
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    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Great article, Jim. Minor quibble, though: 6 for 28 is 21.4%, not 28.6%.
    Worse than I imagined.

    Thanks.

  10. #10
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    Dec 2007
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    Cary, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by DukieInBrasil View Post
    i'd like to see a starting 5 of Hurt, Johnson, Moore, J-Gold and Steward. I'd like to see a zone-press defense which turns into m2m once/if the ball crosses half court. Johnson obviously deserves to start over Jaemyn Brakefield, but i'd like to see Moore start b/c he has a) experience b) length c) defensive intensity which Jeremy Roach does not have. Also, i'd like to see Roach shooting fewer 3s and get back to being a PG, but one who looks to find open players.
    Totally agree here. Moore has earned his way back into the starting lineup, even though his offense is still limited outside of the BC game his defense is always excellent and he's making better decisions and not turning the ball over as much. K seems committed to starting a true big (Williams or Tape) but they really provide nothing short of having a tall guy to handle the opening tip and I have to think the different starting lineups contribute to our slow starts.

    Having all three of Gold/Steward/Roach in the game at the same time just doesn't give us any size, the only thing we can do is gamble for steals and if that doesn't work then it's an open look for an easy bucket. I like the idea of rotating two of the three, except maybe in a few spurts where we go all out blitzing D. Hurt and Johnson inside give us enough size to counter *most* opponents, especially with Louisville having a depleted frontcourt, and are both versatile scorers through which we can run the offense.

  11. #11
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    Sep 2007
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    Greensboro

    Hopeful

    Over and over K says the hungrier team wins... And Steward insinuates that "we've got to get hungrier..." We are either hungry or not... I loved the article recently done on Michigan, and Juwan Howard's toughness in practice approach, which has always been Izzo's regimen at MSU. When defense was our calling card, we were hungrier and tougher than other teams. Would like to see that return... I must say that I am more hopeful that this team can find its way that I have been. Go Duke!

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    Making matters worse, the team has gone ice cold from 3-point range in their two recent losses, shooting a combined 7-36 (19.4%) from beyond the arc. This is a very young team and they have been playing like one lately.
    Duke seems to have the cure for every opponent's 3 point shooting problems. Everybody is lighting it up against this Duke team.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by hallcity View Post
    Duke seems to have the cure for every opponent's 3 point shooting problems. Everybody is lighting it up against this Duke team.
    Well, we should scrimmage more White on Blue!
       

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by revmel53 View Post
    Over and over K says the hungrier team wins... And Steward insinuates that "we've got to get hungrier..." We are either hungry or not... I loved the article recently done on Michigan, and Juwan Howard's toughness in practice approach, which has always been Izzo's regimen at MSU. When defense was our calling card, we were hungrier and tougher than other teams. Would like to see that return... I must say that I am more hopeful that this team can find its way that I have been. Go Duke!
    The announcers made a good point during the Pitt game - being "hungrier" doesn't just mean gritting your teeth and rampaging around like an ape. Sometimes young players try to force themselves to be more aggressive and they end up making mistakes and playing out of control. Being hungry means channeling your aggressiveness in a positive way that contributes to winning. And that's something that takes experience. You can't just will yourself to play hungry, you have to learn how to do it. Yes there is a conscious decision that has to happen first in which you choose to be more aggressive, but having that translate into better results is not immediate.

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by hallcity View Post
    Duke seems to have the cure for every opponent's 3 point shooting problems. Everybody is lighting it up against this Duke team.
    That's partly true. On the other hand, Duke's opponent 3-point rate (the share of FG attempts that are 3's) is quite low at 33.3%, the 56th lowest rate of 3's allowed per game. Teams are hitting a very high percentage of their 3's but are not taking all that many. In some cases, it is pure luck. Against Pitt, Justin Champagnie entered the game hitting 25% of his 3's on the year. He drained 4 of 7 shots. Duke wanted him to take jumpers. It's just that he made a career high 4 3's that game. Meanwhile, the rest of their team was just 3-13 from beyond the arc. The defensive strategy was sound. It just didn't work.

    Louisville shoots the ball poorly as a team and at a very low rate. They shoot just 30.9% of their FG attempts from outside. That's 305th in the nation. They don't make all that many when they do take those shots, either. The challenge for Duke in this game (and most games this year) is the free throw battle. Duke has been abysmal at getting to the FT line and preventing teams from taking a parade of FTs. Louisville excels at that this year. Duke's big men are going to have to play sound defense and contest the Louisville guards without fouling.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    That's partly true. On the other hand, Duke's opponent 3-point rate (the share of FG attempts that are 3's) is quite low at 33.3%, the 56th lowest rate of 3's allowed per game. Teams are hitting a very high percentage of their 3's but are not taking all that many. In some cases, it is pure luck. Against Pitt, Justin Champagnie entered the game hitting 25% of his 3's on the year. He drained 4 of 7 shots. Duke wanted him to take jumpers. It's just that he made a career high 4 3's that game. Meanwhile, the rest of their team was just 3-13 from beyond the arc. The defensive strategy was sound. It just didn't work.

    Louisville shoots the ball poorly as a team and at a very low rate. They shoot just 30.9% of their FG attempts from outside. That's 305th in the nation. They don't make all that many when they do take those shots, either. The challenge for Duke in this game (and most games this year) is the free throw battle. Duke has been abysmal at getting to the FT line and preventing teams from taking a parade of FTs. Louisville excels at that this year. Duke's big men are going to have to play sound defense and contest the Louisville guards without fouling.
    It's true that we keep our opponents from shooting a lot of threes. In fact, Pitt was our first opponent to shoot more threes (as a matter of percentage) than they average for the season, and even then it was close (Pitt for the season takes 35.7% of their shots from three and against us attempted 38.5% of their shots from three; also Coppin State shot 50.0% of their shots against us from distance and from the season only averages 49.9%, but I'm calling that a tie).

    On the other hand, it's unlikely to be "pure luck" when almost everybody shoots well against you. For the season, Duke has allowed its opponents to make 37.3% of their three-point shots, which (unadjusted) is the 37th worst three-point make rate in the nation (5th worst, among "Big Six" teams). In comparison, Duke held its opponents under 35% from three in each of the past 20 seasons. We've held opponents under 33% in 16 of 20 seasons. Last season, we held opponents under 30%. I don't think it's luck.

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    It's true that we keep our opponents from shooting a lot of threes. In fact, Pitt was our first opponent to shoot more threes (as a matter of percentage) than they average for the season, and even then it was close (Pitt for the season takes 35.7% of their shots from three and against us attempted 38.5% of their shots from three; also Coppin State shot 50.0% of their shots against us from distance and from the season only averages 49.9%, but I'm calling that a tie).

    On the other hand, it's unlikely to be "pure luck" when almost everybody shoots well against you. For the season, Duke has allowed its opponents to make 37.3% of their three-point shots, which (unadjusted) is the 37th worst three-point make rate in the nation (5th worst, among "Big Six" teams). In comparison, Duke held its opponents under 35% from three in each of the past 20 seasons. We've held opponents under 33% in 16 of 20 seasons. Last season, we held opponents under 30%. I don't think it's luck.
    There are still so few data points (i.e. Duke has only played 9 games) that my feeling is that it's mostly luck (while agreeing that it's not 100% luck). Here's a question for you. If I set the over/under on opponent 3-pt% for the rest of the season to be 36%, would you take the over or the under? For me, it's under easily.

  18. #18
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    Nov 2007
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    Vermont
    ^ I dunno, we do have a habit of leaving a lot of guys very very wide open, which probably doesn't hurt their shooting percentage.

  19. #19
    Huge opportunity for Duke tomorrow. How does Jalen follow up his dominant performance? Can Duke contain Louisville's backcourt? Game preview:

    https://bluedevilstop.com/duke-louisville-game-preview/

  20. #20
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    Dec 2007
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    Cary, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    It's true that we keep our opponents from shooting a lot of threes.
    How much of that is due to the fact that in almost every game we spot our opponents an immediate 10-15 point lead and therefore they don't need to shoot them?

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