Originally Posted by
gumbomoop
Usually a little hesitant to begin a new thread, I do so because the musings below don't exactly fit in any of 3 existing threads -- Jabari draft vigil, 2014-15 starters/rotation, Turner waiting on Jabari -- but pick up on issues found in all 3. In addition, and most important, I muse below on what happens to the rotation if, delusionally, Jabari were actually to return. [To those who think all the rumours of even a long-shot-possible Jabari-return are nonsense, well, you will not want to waste your time with the false-premise-based musings below.]
Say, delusionally, Jabari returns. That would, presumably, lead the mods immediately to close the "Musings of 2014-15 Starters & Rotation Players" thread, as the posts therein were not burdened by any Jabari delusions. Burdened by the discombobulating news of Jabari's return, we are undone, and have to muse anew.
Jabari next season -- at Duke, just so we're clear -- would play both stretch 4 and wing/SF. "Not at the same time," you [particularly those of you who politely declined my well-intentioned advice above] snark. But in a sense, yes. [Among several Jabari delusions...] He would share time at the 4 with Amile, and at the 3 with Justise and/or others.
In what sense "at the same time"? Jabari is the same player, on O, no matter who the other "forward" is at any particular moment. That is, as during this season, he'll move around. On O. Sometimes he'll be in the corner for a 3, or at the top of the circle, either for a 3 or for a cross-over dribble-blast to the rim. Sometimes he'll post, awaiting a 45-degree entry pass from Tyus; other times a pass from just above the FT line from Jahlil, who sees over everybody. Sometimes he'll attack from the elbow.
On D, Jabari won't play the 3 and 4 simultaneously. ["Well, that's good." More snark; perfectly understandable.] On the floor with, say, Tyus, Rasheed, Amile, and Jahlil, Jabari guards the opposing wing/3/SF. With, say, Quinn, Tyus, Justise, and Marshall, Jabari guards the opposing PF. Ditto with Tyus, Rasheed, Matt [a few minutes of perimeter-small-ball, with different combos, each game], and Jahlil.
But no matter whether on D he's guarding the opposing 3 or 4, on O he's moving around. He moved around a lot on O this season, so that's not new.
As my purpose in this new thread is to encourage a new set of rotation-musings, under the burdensome, but enjoyable, delusion that Jabari returns, I don't see a simple way to muse further about rotation without linking my projections with mpg. Absent some mpg projections, every sentence would have to be qualified to the point of utter confusion. With apologies, then:
PG -- Tyus 32, Quinn 8
Wing/2 -- Rasheed 28, Quinn 12
Wing/3 -- Jabari 14, Justise 16, Matt/Grayson 10
Stretch 4/PF -- Jabari 18, Amile 22
C -- Jahlil 30, Marshall 10
No minutes for Semi? No, and here I think gocanes0506 has it right ....
Should Jabari return, it seems to me the truth is that every player save Tyus, Jahlil, and Marshall will see greatly or slightly reduced mpg. Well, the truth according to me. If you accept that Jabari is returning -- the premise of this thread -- but believe he will "play" only the 4, ok, then only Amile's minutes go down, way, way down. But, as I've noted above, I think he'll roam on O. Further, despite my high expectations of Justise, and, further still, despite acknowledging that Justise, Matt, and Grayson constitute some very promising wings, I value Amile's proven contributions even more.
But with a roster of 11 rather than 10, the addition being Jabari, something -- i.e., many minutes -- has to give. And we know both that Krzyzewski is no longer averse to redshirting -- recall the shock of 2 redshirts announced at beginning of 2011-12 -- and that he also regrets not having redshirted Ryan his Fr year. Does he regret not having redshirted Semi last season? I'm not asking, and the answer just now is, probably not. But a returning Jabari is a whole 'nother thing going forward; it's just very tough to find minutes for Semi.
Could Matt, Grayson, or Amile be redshirted, instead? Yes, but Semi seems the most likely candidate. But is the most likely scenario that no one will redshirt? Close call.
Now, to other issues in my mpg musing-list. Only 20 for Quinn? Some will insist he might still start. I doubt it, but it's muse-able. Some will find 25 or 28 for him, but I can't. Others will find 4-5 more minutes for Rasheed. Justise fanatics will find at least 22 for him, probably rejecting my prediction that Jabari will play some wing/3/SF. Some will predict substantial improvement for Matt; recent Grayson converts will insist he's got game, right now, 10-15 mpg worth.
I'm just sayin' ... if Jabari returns, it's a lotta minutes.
So don't delude yourself.