The Truth about Transfers and Duke

[rocketeli]

THE TRUTH ABOUT DUKE TRANSFERS
I did some research on Duke and ACC transfers because unfortunately I have read people on these very boards repeating the tired old inaccurate Duke hating meme that “Duke has a lot of transfers” or “Duke has more transfers than usual” etc.
Do we? I don’t think so, but what do the actual figures show?
For the TL;DR crowd. Bottom line Duke by no means has an inordinate amount of transfers and in fact as less than most of the other ACC teams in the four seasons spread over 2012-2015.
Discussion. Turns out this is hard information to find. There is no searchable by school database for transfers. It’s as if they are considered shameful for some reason and not to be discussed. Which is funny as you can see from this NCAA handout a few years ago https://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/f...Itransfers.pdf transfers are very common in college basketball.
The closest thing to a complete database is Jeff Goodman’s list, now on ESPN. Unfortunately earlier lists were not as complete ( For 2011 on Yardbarker he lists about 250 transfers and last year on ESPN almost 800. This doesn’t mean transfers increased 4-fold in 4 years-just that he’s tracking more carefully.) However, one would suspect that the ACC would be a fairly well-covered league and most, if not all of the transfers would get some media attention and be counted. His data seemed complete enough for the ACC to use from 2011-2012 season forward through 2014-1015.
Methodology. I scrolled through the lists below and counted the number of transfers for all current ACC members. Some teams may not have been in the ACC for a year or so, but this is a list of programs transfers out, not which tournament they played in.
Goodman does not identify why the player transferred-by choice, academic issues, dismissed from the program etc. For example, he lists Rasheed Suliamon as a Duke transfer, which I consider as not a transfer as he was off the team before he decided to transfer to Maryland. I’m open to the other interpretation. So if I did not count RS, maybe I shouldn’t of counted some of these others.
Scrolling through his lists, I was struck by a couple of things. One, players transfer from EVERYWHERE. They transfer from big name programs like Kansas, Kentucky and Oregon (a lot from there) and tiny little barrel scrapers alike. Two, contrary to what is commonly thought, players don’t really transfer “down” that much, or up. Instead they tend to transfer most often to a school that is similar in stature to the one they just left.
I probably got eye fatigue and missed some. I list the ones I found by name below if anyone wants to add to it/correct it.
The data:
Transfers by school 2011-12—2014-15 (4 seasons)
UNC 0
Syracuse 2
Duke 3 (4 if you count RS)
Notre Dame 3
Miami 3
FSU 3
BC 4
UVA 4
NCS 5
WFU 6
Clemson 6
GT 7
Pitt 7
Louisville 8
VT 12
So to recap. Duke does not have an inordinate or exceptional number of transfers when compared to, uh, comparable schools.
Sep 2015 list Jeff Goodman ESPN 2014-15 season
ACC 17 transfers out
Louisville Shaqquan Aaron, Trent Gilbert, Anton Gill
GT Chris Bolden
Miami Deandre Burnett
WFU Daniel Green
Pitt Tyrone Haughton, Joe Uchebo
Syracuse B J Johnson, Ron Patterson
Notre Dame Eric Katenda
VT Malik Muller, Adam Smith, Joey van Zegeren
Clemson Patrick Rooks
VA B J Stith
NCS Patrick Wallace
8/1/15 2013-14 Season (20 transfers out)
BC Ryan Anderson, Joe Rahon
GT Robert Carter, Solomon Poole
WFU Tyler Cavanaugh
Clemson Ibrahim Djambo, Adonis Filer, Devin Coleman
VT Ben Emelogu, Maurice Kirby, Trevor Thompson, Marshall Wood, Marquis Rankin
UVA Teven Jones
Miami James Kelly
NCS Tyler Lewis
Duke Semi Ojeleye, Alex Murphy
Louisville Kevin Ware
Notre Dame Cameron Biedscheid

8/28/13 2012-13 season (16 transfers out)
UVA Taylor Barnette, Paul Jesperson
VT Robert Brown
WFU Chase Fischer
Pitt J J Moore, Trey Ziegler, John Johnson, Malcolm Gilbert
Louisville Angel Nunez, Zach Price
Clemson Bernard Sullivan, T J Sapp
GT Brandon Reed, Julian Royal
Miami Bishop Daniels
FSU Terry Whisnant, Terrance Shannon
2011-2012 4/10/12 on CBSSPORTS (19 transfers out)
VT Allen Chaney, Dorian Finney-Smith, J T Thompson
WFU Tony Chennault, Carson Desrosiers, Anthony Fields
Notre Dame Alex Dragicevich
Pitt Isaiah Epps
Louisville Elisha Justice, Jared Swopshire
NCS Deshawn Painter, Tyler Harris, Jaqawn Raymond
GT Glenn Rice Jr, Nate Hicks
FSU Antwan Space
Duke Michael Gbinijie
BC Gabe Moten, Matt Humphrey

[bedeviled]

Earlier this month, a couple PackPride members worked up a table of ACC transfers (2012-2015). They had difficulty getting the exact numbers, too. Nonetheless, their chart is interesting with similar general results as well.
Here is PackChem91's table and a link to the discussion.

Team	Player	MPG	PPG	APG	RPG	Schools Transferred To
UNC	0 players	0	0	0	0
ND	2 players	23	7.5	1.3	2.3	BC, N Texas
Cuse	2 players	28.5	6.8	2.2	4.1	Lasalle, IUPUI
DUKE	4 players	36.1	12.9	2.1	4.7	Cuse, UF, SMU, UMD
Ville	6 players	47	10.1	1.4	6.6	Nebraska, G'town, NW, GaState, USC, Winthrop
Pitt	4 players	47.8	11.9	4.7	5.4	Charlotte, IU, TCU, Juco
FSU	4 players	50.2	15.1	2.3	8.3	TAMU, VCU, ECU, UALR
Clemson	6 players	63.1	18.1	5.2	8.9	Temple, Charlotte, Murray St, Hofstra, FAU, Juco
UVA	6 players	69.4	15	4.4	7.1	Auburn, SDState, Belmont, UNI, Tarleton St, ODU
UM	5 players	90.9	30.7	4.1	10.8	Baylor, Ole Miss, Juco, Marshall, Rutgers
GT	6 players	99.4	31.2	4.2	17.8	Umd, FAU, GM, Tenn St, Ark St, FGCU
WF	9 players	143.8	43.2	7.9	22.7	Nova, Prov, Bradley, BYU, GW, Towson, Iona, Drexel, UALR
NC STATE	8 players	149	45.8	10	22.8	Cincy, Uconn, Butler, MTSU, Prov, ODU, TBD
BC	7 players	158	49.2	8.5	20.7	WV, Arixona, St Marys, Davidson, Nicholls St, Brandeis, Boise
VaT	7 players	165.3	57.3	7.6	28.6	UF, GaT, NW, OSU, Richmond, SMU, UAB

[53n206]

Didn't Carolina have a twin transfer?

[CDu]

Didn't Carolina have a twin transfer?

Both of the Wear twins transferred. As did Larry Drew. But that happened in 2010, two years before these data started.

[Olympic Fan]

Both of the Wear twins transferred. As did Larry Drew. But that happened in 2010, two years before these data started.

The Wear brothers did transfer after the 2009-10 season.

But Drew returned for 2010-11 ... he bailed out in midseason -- Feb. 4, 2011.

[MCFinARL]

Both of the Wear twins transferred. As did Larry Drew. But that happened in 2010, two years before these data started.

Yes, this particular time period makes UNC look like a program that has no transfers--which it did during this time. But 3 in one year, shortly before, is its own kind of transfer problem.

I think the idea that Duke has a disproportionate number of transfers stems at least in part from the fact that, as a high profile program, Duke gets a lot of attention when players do transfer, so people know about it, and because it is a very good program, people think that players "should" not want to transfer out. Va Tech. has 7 transfers over a 4-year period, and people think--well, they have had coaching changes and it's not that great a team. So naturally there would be transfers, and it doesn't seem remarkable.

Admittedly not the most recent data, but a 2010 report by the National Association for College Admission Counseling indicated that 1 in 3 college students transfer at some point in their college careers. Even granted the study included people transferring to 4-year schools after finishing community college programs, that's a lot!

Shocker--18- and 19-year olds often discover that what they thought they wanted isn't really what they wanted. No reason basketball played should be any different. And the stakes would seem especially high for kids who have been brought up to believe (whether accurately or not) that their destiny is to play in the NBA.

Thanks to the OP for working to put data together here.

[Dukeford]

Didn't Carolina have a twin transfer?

Didn't Tokoto transfer to the D-League?

[stedge]

Perhaps UNC players would not be academically eligible at other schools

[weezie]

Didn't Tokoto transfer to the D-League?

Perhaps UNC players would not be academically eligible at other schools

Cymbal crash!

[TruBlu]

Perhaps UNC players would not be academically eligible at other schools

And couldn't take a pay/benefits cut.

[Channing]

Duke recruits top 20ish recruits who want to play early and often, and lower ranked recruits who know the deal when they come in. Nobody bats an eyelash when the 120th ranked recruit who went to VT transfers to Loyola for more PT. However, when a former McDonalds All American transfers from Duke for more attention, it is the leading story on ESPN. The only programs that have the luxury of developing top-20 recruits over a year or two are Duke, UK, and KU. In virtually every other program, a HS All American who comes in is likely going to be the best player at his position on the team, and thus get minutes, less likely to be dissatisfied, and less likely to transfer. Thats why its seems more players transfer from Duke - because of the quality of players we have on the team (and the bench) and the fact that most of the kids we bring in are used to being THE MAN - playing a supportive role is a change for most/all, and some just aren't interested in waiting their turn.

[CDu]

The Wear brothers did transfer after the 2009-10 season.

But Drew returned for 2010-11 ... he bailed out in midseason -- Feb. 4, 2011.

Correct. But also before the window for which these data were collected.

[Reilly]

Perhaps UNC players would not be academically eligible at other schools

Once you've experienced the snack-time chocolate milk and generic Oreo-like cookies at Glenwood Elementary, no other place really compares.

[OldPhiKap]

Once you've experienced the snack-time chocolate milk and generic Oreo-like cookies at Glenwood Elementary, no other place really compares.

Plus all the adderall the LD-testing fraud can provide.

[captmojo]

Didn't Tokoto transfer to the D-League?

Perhaps UNC players would not be academically eligible at other schools

And couldn't take a pay/benefits cut.

Once you've experienced the snack-time chocolate milk and generic Oreo-like cookies at Glenwood Elementary, no other place really compares.

Plus all the adderall the LD-testing fraud can provide.

I blame the light blue shade of the toilet water there.

[rocketeli]

As other posters pointed out, unfortunately the time period where good data is available is too late to capture UNC's annus horribilis in 2009 to 2010 when three players left the program. Since that time they have had five seasons with no transfers which is pretty remarkable, especially given that many of their top recruits do not meet expectations. This could be something to do with their program, bad or good, or it could just be typical distribution of a relatively rare event, and they will shorty experience a few to catch up with probabilities.

[Kedsy]

This could be something to do with their program, bad or good, or it could just be typical distribution of a relatively rare event, and they will shorty experience a few to catch up with probabilities.

Especially if the hammer comes down.

[COYS]

As other posters pointed out, unfortunately the time period where good data is available is too late to capture UNC's annus horribilis in 2009 to 2010 when three players left the program. Since that time they have had five seasons with no transfers which is pretty remarkable, especially given that many of their top recruits do not meet expectations. This could be something to do with their program, bad or good, or it could just be typical distribution of a relatively rare event, and they will shorty experience a few to catch up with probabilities.

Honestly, I feel like transfers are probably inevitable at the biggest programs provided they are recruiting at the highest level. I mean, while UNC had some transfers back in 2010 and 2011 (Wear Twins and Drew II), it was also because they had strong teams. Kendall Marshall was obviously better than Drew II and the Wear Twins were sharing time with Henson and Zeller, who were also clearly better. UNC's drop in transfers has coincided with a dip in their recruiting and a dip in the quality of their top recruits. PJ Hairston left the program early, freeing up some playing time. JMM never became the player many thought he would and also left early. The group of players who made up this past year's team didn't really have to worry about top ten recruits taking away their playing time.