MBB: Duke at Carolina, Saturday 3/6 6 pm, ESPN Pregame and In Game Thread

[CDu]

Maybe Duke should take a page out of the Moses Wright playbook and deliberately grab the ball hesitate for a second or 2 and then throw it to the refs to prevent the secondary break.

In other opinions: Is it possible for Duke to get an at-large bid anymore? If so, what would that need to entail? Would it require defeating UNC and making it all the way to the ACCT finals game?

See the “Duke’s tourney chances” thread. Yes, it is possible. Will probably take a win at UNC and at least 2 ACCT wins, but 3 ACCT wins plus the UNC win would be better.

[brevity]

In the first game, Matt Hurt was held to 7 points.

Well, that's one way to look at it. Visitors to DBR Chat during the last Duke-UNC game may remember my Halftime Trivia questions about how only 4 players on our roster had any playing experience against UNC before this season (Baker, Goldwire, Hurt, and Moore), and of them, only Hurt was scoreless.

By the way, that was still true at halftime. Hurt's 7 career points against UNC all came in the second half of that game. So maybe he's turned the page and those 7 points were his emergence.

[Music man55]

This game against the cheats is obviously important because a win would keep our ncaa hopes from crashing. I really think our guys can win this game, but it will not be easy, as everyone knows. I think Hurt will score more than 7 points, I just hope he can stay out of foul trouble. Some good scoring help from the back court would go a long way. A big key is always keeping the cheats from grabbing a double digit lead in the second half. So, c’mon Bluedevils. You can do this!! GTHC😁

[kako]

See the “Duke’s tourney chances” thread. Yes, it is possible. Will probably take a win at UNC and at least 2 ACCT wins, but 3 ACCT wins plus the UNC win would be better.

But for this one game, I think the team should be hyper-focused given it's UNC. Records don't count, standings don't count. Just beating Pantone 278 is reason enough.

Just as an aside - if they don't win this game, I believe the only way they dance is winning the ACC's outright.

9F

[DavidBenAkiva]

It only happened a few times in that game. Twice they scored within 8 seconds of our score, 2-3 more times they scored within 12 seconds of a Duke make. So we did an ok job of avoiding it in game 1.

Hopefully we do as good a job at it and UNC doesn’t go bonkers from 3 again.

They've shot 25.9% from 3 since the first Duke game, so I fully expect that they will make 12 of 22 against Duke.

For what it's worth, Duke's opponents since the Carolina game have shot 33.3% since then, a significant dip from earlier in the season. Even against Louisville and Georgia Tech, neither took or made that many 3's. I suppose that's progress. Duke's defense has seen a dramatic improvement since the UNC and ND losses. The offense has sagged the past couple of games, unfortunately. It would be nice to get back to hitting 11-25 like Duke did in the first UNC matchup. Shooting is going to be key in this one.

[BlueDevilStop]

Game preview:

https://bluedevilstop.com/duke-at-unc-game-preview/

[moonpie23]

High probability this is a close game within a bucket with less than a minute to play. Sound familiar?

man, i HATE that movie...

[Rich]

Anyone know how many fans they're letting in? While I'm sure there's a stated allowable amount, I wouldn't put it past the "university" to play fast and loose with the numbers. Our freshmen do not have any experience playing a road game against fans, particularly as rabid as they will be for this game, so this adds to the uphill battle.

[uh_no]

Anyone know how many fans they're letting in? While I'm sure there's a stated allowable amount, I wouldn't put it past the "university" to play fast and loose with the numbers. Our freshmen do not have any experience playing a road game against fans, particularly as rabid as they will be for this game, so this adds to the uphill battle.

what? UNC not taking the pandemic seriously? never.

[vlogical]

Anyone know how many fans they're letting in? While I'm sure there's a stated allowable amount, I wouldn't put it past the "university" to play fast and loose with the numbers. Our freshmen do not have any experience playing a road game against fans, particularly as rabid as they will be for this game, so this adds to the uphill battle.

Actually Duke just played in front of a limited number of fans on Tuesday when they played at Georgia Tech. So the freshman do have at least one game experience in front of fans.

[Edouble]

Game preview:

https://bluedevilstop.com/duke-at-unc-game-preview/

Every single one of your posts falls under the medium infraction category of the Posting & Decorum Guidelines
https://forums.dukebasketballreport...before-posting!)

Self promotion. Members come here primarily for dialog about Duke Basketball and related topics. They don't come here to read shameless self promotion. If your business or blog fits into the discussion, that's great - if you also provide content. But don't start or hijack threads with a "read my blog" or "buy my product, here's a link" posts. We're not a link farm.

It has become tiresome.

[CDu]

Every single one of your posts falls under the medium infraction category of the Posting & Decorum Guidelines
https://forums.dukebasketballreport...before-posting!)

Self promotion. Members come here primarily for dialog about Duke Basketball and related topics. They don't come here to read shameless self promotion. If your business or blog fits into the discussion, that's great - if you also provide content. But don't start or hijack threads with a "read my blog" or "buy my product, here's a link" posts. We're not a link farm.

It has become tiresome.

Yeah, I'm surprised the mods have let this go for so long. Especially since it is literally "don't read the content on this board; go to my website and read what I have to say." We've had others get dinged for doing this in the past.

[kako]

My all-time favorite Nike commercial. Seems appropriate leading up to tomorrow. I wonder if the Marquette team watched it before they beat the Heels...

Pantone 287 > Pantone 278

9F

[mattyoung18]

Our guards need to step up.I hope our guys can play up to Hurts level and keep the cheats off the glass.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Our guards need to step up. I hope our guys can play up to Hurts level and keep the cheats off the glass.

The more I think about the game, the more I am convinced that the guards are going to determine this one and not the frontcourt. UNC's guards, in particular Caleb Love, went OFF against Duke in the first matchup. They have been terrible since in terms of shooting, turnovers, and all-around poor play. Against Florida State, freshman guards Love and Davis combined for 11 turnovers and shot a combined 2/11 from 3 and 4/13 from 2. That was a game dominated until the second half. I think Duke needs to keep the UNC frontcourt in check more or less, not get completely outplayed in that area. But what they really need to do is make darn sure Love, Davis, and Walton aren't hitting shots they normally only make against Duke. Force them to make plays. They will cough to ball up. Get them out of their games.

[CameronBlue]

The more I think about the game, the more I am convinced that the guards are going to determine this one and not the frontcourt. UNC's guards, in particular Caleb Love, went OFF against Duke in the first matchup. They have been terrible since in terms of shooting, turnovers, and all-around poor play. Against Florida State, freshman guards Love and Davis combined for 11 turnovers and shot a combined 2/11 from 3 and 4/13 from 2. That was a game dominated until the second half. I think Duke needs to keep the UNC frontcourt in check more or less, not get completely outplayed in that area. But what they really need to do is make darn sure Love, Davis, and Walton aren't hitting shots they normally only make against Duke. Force them to make plays. They will cough to ball up. Get them out of their games.

Good assessment. Duke needs to be opportunistic. Over their last three games UNC has served up 60 turnovers, that's a number the belongs on a McDonald's sign. I'd love to see some those miscues turned into run out opportunities for the Duke guards, hopefully Goldwire feasts on mutton mistakes.

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[Kedsy]

Here's a couple low-sample, probably non-predictive stats for you:


So far this season, Duke is 11-3 when we shoot 30% or better from three and 0-7 when we shoot lower than 30% from three.

So far this season, Duke is 9-1 when our opponent's free throw rate is 30% or lower, and 2-9 when the opposing FTR is higher than 30%.


The opposite doesn't show the same kind of extreme trend: Duke is 7-8 when our opponent shoots 30% or better from three, 4-2 when they shoot lower than 30%; and Duke is 3-2 when our FTR is higher than 30%, 8-8 when it's 30% or lower.

Like I said, it probably won't predict anything, especially for this game, as UNC generally "splits" the stats: they get fouled a lot (average FTR of 34.6%) but their opponents shoot well from three (average opponent shoots 35.1% from three). True to form, last UNC game we split, shooting 44% from three but fouling UNC to the tune of a 34.5% free throw rate.

All that said, if we shoot well from distance and don't foul too much, I like our chances.

[Billy Dat]

Let's drive next door where the ceiling is the floor,
Where the coed cheers are drowned by the wine-and-cheese snore,
Bubbles are blown, someone's will burst
March Madness for one, the other is cursed
Will Duke's guards emerge from a mid winter nap?
To hit 3s and drop dimes and play D like floor slaps?
Will lanky Mr. Williams make a big old mark?
Or get swallowed by Bacot, Kessler and Sharpe?
Will Matthew of the North play well or play hurt?
Or will Garrison deluge him as a flooded brook?
Will Wendell deliver or leave us wanting more?
Will Black leak his magic all over the floor?
Davis and Love will run us until we expire
Can Jordan tie them up with his sturdy gold wire?
Will the role players Coleman, Platek, Walton and Brake
Come up big, or shudder and quake?
It's time to separate the pros from the fakers
The X factor could just be Joey Baker.
The holes are giving two and a half at home
I'll take Duke straight up, at the dump of a dome.
You never know what to expect from the refs
But you can always be sure of 9F 9F 9F 9F!!!!!

[hustleplays]

Here's a couple low-sample, probably non-predictive stats for you:


So far this season, Duke is 11-3 when we shoot 30% or better from three and 0-7 when we shoot lower than 30% from three.

So far this season, Duke is 9-1 when our opponent's free throw rate is 30% or lower, and 2-9 when the opposing FTR is higher than 30%.


The opposite doesn't show the same kind of extreme trend: Duke is 7-8 when our opponent shoots 30% or better from three, 4-2 when they shoot lower than 30%; and Duke is 3-2 when our FTR is higher than 30%, 8-8 when it's 30% or lower.

Like I said, it probably won't predict anything, especially for this game, as UNC generally "splits" the stats: they get fouled a lot (average FTR of 34.6%) but their opponents shoot well from three (average opponent shoots 35.1% from three). True to form, last UNC game we split, shooting 44% from three but fouling UNC to the tune of a 34.5% free throw rate.

All that said, if we shoot well from distance and don't foul too much, I like our chances.

Kedsy, thanks for those very interesting stats!

I would like to add a predictive stat from Ol Roy's highly regarded statistics department: If we win on Saturday, we should have scheduled the game. If we lose, we should not have scheduled it.

[TywinBlue]

9f 3000