MBB: Duke 56, Purdue 75 Post-Game Thread

[CDu]

So, why do you think Young transferred when Nance was done at NW? No more small-ball or 2 C issues!

BTW, it’s not just starts. Every year Young’s minutes were also reduced.

I have no idea why Young transferred. One possibility is that, after getting his degree from Northwestern, he decided to take the opportunity to transfer to another elite school, but one with a chance to make a deep tourney run. He certainly didn’t transfer to Duke with any expectation of more playing time in mind.

[jv001]

Some stats on the two players being discussed.

Young
8 games played
3 starts
21 mpg
168 minutes played
PPG= 7.8
RPG= 7.0
FG%=69%
FT%=80%

Lively
7 games played
5 starts
17.3 mpg
121 minutes played
PPG=2.7
RPG=3.3
FG%=56%
FT%=.17% (1-6)

It's pretty easy to see who the best offensive center is. From what I've seen so far is Lively does not have the footwork that Young has and he doesn't have the footwork that Mark Williams even at the beginning of his freshmen year. He doesn't shoot FTs as well as Mark. The only aspect of Livelys game that was better than freshmen Mark Williams is Lively is able to switch on man2man defense.

These are two different players. Young is the better scorer, shooter and rebounder. I don't know if Livelys defense offsets the offense Young brings to the table.

GoDuke!

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Some stats on the two players being discussed.

Young
8 games played
3 starts
21 mpg
168 minutes played
PPG= 7.8
RPG= 7.0
FG%=69%
FT%=80%

Lively
7 games played
5 starts
17.3 mpg
121 minutes played
PPG=2.7
RPG=3.3
FG%=56%
FT%=.17% (1-6)

It's pretty easy to see who the best offensive center is. From what I've seen so far is Lively does not have the footwork that Young has and he doesn't have the footwork that Mark Williams even at the beginning of his freshmen year. He doesn't shoot FTs as well as Mark. The only aspect of Livelys game that was better than freshmen Mark Williams is Lively is able to switch on man2man defense.

These are two different players. Young is the better scorer, shooter and rebounder. I don't know if Livelys defense offsets the offense Young brings to the table.

GoDuke!

Given how anemic our offense has been, I'm hesitant to suggest making the decision based on defense.

[scottdude8]

I have no idea why Young transferred. One possibility is that, after getting his degree from Northwestern, he decided to take the opportunity to transfer to another elite school, but one with a chance to make a deep tourney run. He certainly didn’t transfer to Duke with any expectation of more playing time in mind.

Yeah, we’re all overlooking the possibility that Ryan actually wanted a NU degree…

[CDu]

Yeah, we’re all overlooking the possibility that Ryan actually wanted a NU degree…

To be clear, I don't think Young's interest in getting a degree from Northwestern explains the situation. Jeffrey's point was that the 2-center problem was alleviated this past summer, meaning he could have stayed at Northwestern and potentially been the starter. The interest in an NU degree would explain why he didn't transfer sooner, but it doesn't explain why he transferred when he did. The decision to transfer this past Spring was for some other reason.

My best guess is that he saw the opportunity to go to Duke and be a part of a sure-fire tournament team, one with potential Final Four aspirations. And with nothing left to reasonably accomplish at Northwestern (he got his degree, and Northwestern wasn't going anywhere as a program anyway), he struck while the iron was hot.

[Kedsy]

To be clear, I don't think Young's interest in getting a degree from Northwestern explains the situation. Jeffrey's point was that the 2-center problem was alleviated this past summer, meaning he could have stayed at Northwestern and potentially been the starter. The interest in an NU degree would explain why he didn't transfer sooner, but it doesn't explain why he transferred when he did. The decision to transfer this past Spring was for some other reason.

My best guess is that he saw the opportunity to go to Duke and be a part of a sure-fire tournament team, one with potential Final Four aspirations. And with nothing left to reasonably accomplish at Northwestern (he got his degree, and Northwestern wasn't going anywhere as a program anyway), he struck while the iron was hot.

I remember hearing about a reporter asking Chris Collins whether he was OK with his old friend Scheyer poaching Young. Collins said something along the lines of, Young was leaving anyway and since that was the case, he was thrilled that it worked out with Scheyer. Which would suggest it wasn't the opportunity at Duke that originally motivated Ryan to leave NU, but it definitely could have been he was looking for a national contender for his last year as a college player, and Duke fit the bill.

[scottdude8]

To be clear, I don't think Young's interest in getting a degree from Northwestern explains the situation. Jeffrey's point was that the 2-center problem was alleviated this past summer, meaning he could have stayed at Northwestern and potentially been the starter. The interest in an NU degree would explain why he didn't transfer sooner, but it doesn't explain why he transferred when he did. The decision to transfer this past Spring was for some other reason.

My best guess is that he saw the opportunity to go to Duke and be a part of a sure-fire tournament team, one with potential Final Four aspirations. And with nothing left to reasonably accomplish at Northwestern (he got his degree, and Northwestern wasn't going anywhere as a program anyway), he struck while the iron was hot.

I remember hearing about a reporter asking Chris Collins whether he was OK with his old friend Scheyer poaching Young. Collins said something along the lines of, Young was leaving anyway and since that was the case, he was thrilled that it worked out with Scheyer. Which would suggest it wasn't the opportunity at Duke that originally motivated Ryan to leave NU, but it definitely could have been he was looking for a national contender for his last year as a college player, and Duke fit the bill.

Agreed, the degree doesn't explain the situation, but considering it seems Ryan has a really good head on his shoulders it might have been a non-zero factor (and, let's be honest, we typically assume academics are a non-factor nowadays).

FWIW, even with Nance and Young gone this year's NU squad still seems to be playing the same style. Their biggest starter, Robbie Beran, is 6-9 and shooting 38% from deep. Matthew Nicholson, a more traditional center, is only getting 17 minutes per game. I think Chris has made a conscious choice that, given the talent disparity, his best chances at winning games in the Big Ten is creating his own mismatches against B1G centers, while keeping Nicholoson in reserve as necessary, rather than try to bang in the post with them with lesser players.

[azzefkram]

Young consistently had a 110-115 ORtg for Northwestern. That isn’t meh. So I suspect your 102 ORtg is a small sample size issue. I have trouble believing he is a worse offensive player while being a year more experienced and playing on a much better team.

I think Lively’s athleticism will eventually be very valuable, especially on defense. And on aggregate I think he will be the better player. But I am quite skeptical that he will be better offensively than Young.

It may be, but I am not so sure. Ryan's ORtgs while at Northwestern during conference games were 96, 108, and 100 (average 102). If you look at his conference stats, they are fairly close to what he is doing at Duke against better competition. Ryan feasted on lesser competition which is a good thing, but the competition is going to get stiffer even in a less than stellar ACC.

Do I think Dereck will end up with an ORtg in the 110-115? I'd be pleasantly surprised, but more than likely not. Can Dereck end up with an ORtg around 102? I'd say that's reasonable.

[DukieInBrasil]

I’m not sure I follow you. It seems you’re suggesting that Young transferred primarily because he was no longer a starter. But he’s not starting at Duke either.

Also, I haven’t said anything about small ball or 2-center issues at Northwestern, so I think that comment would have been more appropriately directed elsewhere.

You're not following because s/he is using bad faith argument techniques designed to not make sense, blatantly ignoring evidence/arguments given and substituting his/her own opinion for how things ought to be done for those of the people who were actually involved.

[UrinalCake]

IIRC Young transferred first, fairly early in the process, while Nance entered the draft but remained eligible to return. Only after withdrawing from the draft did he announce he was transferring to the CHeats. Although it might have been clear from the start that he was leaving regardless.

[kAzE]

Some stats on the two players being discussed.

Young
8 games played
3 starts
21 mpg
168 minutes played
PPG= 7.8
RPG= 7.0
FG%=69%
FT%=80%

Lively
7 games played
5 starts
17.3 mpg
121 minutes played
PPG=2.7
RPG=3.3
FG%=56%
FT%=.17% (1-6)

It's pretty easy to see who the best offensive center is. From what I've seen so far is Lively does not have the footwork that Young has and he doesn't have the footwork that Mark Williams even at the beginning of his freshmen year. He doesn't shoot FTs as well as Mark. The only aspect of Livelys game that was better than freshmen Mark Williams is Lively is able to switch on man2man defense.

These are two different players. Young is the better scorer, shooter and rebounder. I don't know if Livelys defense offsets the offense Young brings to the table.

GoDuke!

I wouldn't say definitively that Young is the better rebounder, because he isn't expected to protect the rim in the same way Lively is responsible for. Often, Lively is out of position to grab the defensive rebound because his job is to help contest shots.

In the end, I think Lively will end up playing more. My hunch is that Dariq's 30+ minutes per game are largely going to come from Ryan's playing time (and a little bit from a few others), rather than Dereck's. It's just that right now, we need Ryan's offense while Dariq is still limited.

[CDu]

I wouldn't say definitely that Young is the better rebounder, because he isn't expected to protect the rim in the same way Lively is responsible for. Often, Lively is out of position to grab the defensive rebound because his job is to help contest shots.

In the end, I think Lively will end up playing more, my hunch is that Dariq's 30+ minutes per game are largely going to come from Ryan's playing time, rather than Dereck's. It's just that right now, we need Ryan's offense while Dariq is still limited.

I agree about the defensive rebounding. Young will get more defensive rebounds, but that's definitely in part a function of Lively being a shotblocker. On the offensive rebound side, I'm not sure how well his current offensive rebound rate will hold, but obviously any differences there will not be related to shotblocking.

As for the minutess, I would guess that most of Whitehead's time will come from Blakes/Grandison/Mitchell rather than Young. I think Young's minutes will largely get reduced by Lively's minutes. But I doubt we go to a ton of minutes for Filipowski at C. So basically I expect Lively's minutes to go up from the 17 mpg he is currently averaging to 25 or so, and Young's minutes will drop from 20 to 10-12.

I think Whitehead's minutes will largely come from the various fill-in wings we've used (Grandison, Blakes, and a bit of Schutt) and a bit from Mitchell as well. Probably will see Grandison and Blakes both reduced from their 17-18 mpg to a 10-12 mpg role or less (likely less for one of them), and maybe a few minutes taken from Mitchell.

[Jeffrey]

You're not following because s/he is using bad faith argument techniques designed to not make sense, blatantly ignoring evidence/arguments given and substituting his/her own opinion for how things ought to be done for those of the people who were actually involved.

Have you ever considered taking a Dale Carnegie Course?

[Bluedog]

I was about to say that after finishing undergrad and earning your degree, it's a natural thing to "try a new place" and I had assumed that Kellogg doesn't have a similar 1-year business program like Fuqua, but I learned that Kellogg is actually one of a few top b-schools that offer a 1-year accelerated MBA! Probably not for the faint of heart and not the same as Duke's MMS.

[kAzE]

I agree about the defensive rebounding. Young will get more defensive rebounds, but that's definitely in part a function of Lively being a shotblocker. On the offensive rebound side, I'm not sure how well his current offensive rebound rate will hold, but obviously any differences there will not be related to shotblocking.

As for the minutess, I would guess that most of Whitehead's time will come from Blakes/Grandison/Mitchell rather than Young. I think Young's minutes will largely get reduced by Lively's minutes. But I doubt we go to a ton of minutes for Filipowski at C. So basically I expect Lively's minutes to go up from the 17 mpg he is currently averaging to 25 or so, and Young's minutes will drop from 20 to 10-12.

I think Whitehead's minutes will largely come from the various fill-in wings we've used (Grandison, Blakes, and a bit of Schutt) and a bit from Mitchell as well. Probably will see Grandison and Blakes both reduced from their 17-18 mpg to a 10-12 mpg role or less (likely less for one of them), and maybe a few minutes taken from Mitchell.

Before the season, I definitely did not think Ryan Young would be playing more than a handful of minutes. I assumed Lively would start at center, but stagger minutes with Flip so that one of them would always be at the 5. Coach Scheyer appears to view Flip as a 4, and Young has outperformed expectations.

This appears to be a divergence in lineup preferences with Coach K. In the past, with a few exceptions (Bagley/Carter), Coach K pretty much always favored a tall-ish wing at the 4 rather than 2 "bigs", ostensibly to provide better perimeter defense and spacing on offense. Unless it's just that Flip is able to hold up on the perimeter way better than anybody thought he was capable of. That could be it, and this is just a outlier because of Flip's specific skillset.

I'd be curious to see how many minutes we've played with each combination of the 3 bigs, and possibly +/- stats. It would be really interesting to see. I imagine we haven't gone with a Lively/Young lineup too often.

[CDu]

I'd be curious to see how many minutes we've played with each combination of the 3 bigs, and possibly +/- stats. It would be really interesting to see. I imagine we haven't gone with a Lively/Young lineup too often.

I believe it is zero minutes with Young and Lively in together so far. The C spot has been Young (166), Lively (122), Filipowski (18), Reeves (12), and Borden (2). Filipowski (202) and Mitchell have split the vast majority of the PF minutes, with Grandison, Whitehead, and Catchings getting the rest (not very many from those guys though).

[superdave]

I remember hearing about a reporter asking Chris Collins whether he was OK with his old friend Scheyer poaching Young. Collins said something along the lines of, Young was leaving anyway and since that was the case, he was thrilled that it worked out with Scheyer. Which would suggest it wasn't the opportunity at Duke that originally motivated Ryan to leave NU, but it definitely could have been he was looking for a national contender for his last year as a college player, and Duke fit the bill.

I recall this as well. Was it Brendan Marks on the DBR pod?

[SkyBrickey]

Some stats on the two players being discussed.

Young
8 games played
3 starts
21 mpg
168 minutes played
PPG= 7.8
RPG= 7.0
FG%=69%
FT%=80%

Lively
7 games played
5 starts
17.3 mpg
121 minutes played
PPG=2.7
RPG=3.3
FG%=56%
FT%=.17% (1-6)

It's pretty easy to see who the best offensive center is. From what I've seen so far is Lively does not have the footwork that Young has and he doesn't have the footwork that Mark Williams even at the beginning of his freshmen year. He doesn't shoot FTs as well as Mark. The only aspect of Livelys game that was better than freshmen Mark Williams is Lively is able to switch on man2man defense.

These are two different players. Young is the better scorer, shooter and rebounder. I don't know if Livelys defense offsets the offense Young brings to the table.

GoDuke!

I would bet this offensive gap between them closes dramatically over the next month. Coach is starting Lively which tells me he expects Lively to play a lot better with more court time.

[CDu]

I recall this as well. Was it Brendan Marks on the DBR pod?

It was mentioned by one of the announcers during one of the games. It might also have occurred on a podcast as well, but I heard it during one of the games.

[CDu]

I would bet this offensive gap between them closes dramatically over the next month. Coach is starting Lively which tells me he expects Lively to play a lot better with more court time.

I suspect it says more about Lively's defensive potential than it does about his offense. That, and it says something about Young's complete lack of defensive potential.