2020 Presidential Election

[sagegrouse]

I have seen Susan Rice's name out there a bit. I know very little about her but she has senior public sector experience and excellent academic credentials (which no one seems to care about anymore). I don't know if there are any skeletons in her closet.

Going down the same path, I looked into Val Jarrett, who didn't have a specific role but was very senior in the Obama administration. It looks like she was born abroad so I think that rules her out?

Carol Moseley Braun is over 70 and I think has had some ups and downs since leaving office so I'm assuming that is a no go.

And there is the Democrat fantasy of Michelle Obama, but I wouldn't count on that.

I think Biden boxed himself in by committing so early to having a woman. Women are a huge constituency who he has to appeal to, but I think a minority man could have gotten him pretty much to the same place.

Valerie Jarrett, who was working for Mayor Daley, was the first person to promote Barack Obama as a potential president of the US. (Probably not literally true, because half of his class at Harvard law saw a potential president when they looked in the mirror.) Ironic, therefore to see her on a VP list -- it would never happen. Although she was born in Tehran, where her physician father ran a hospital, both of her parents were natural-born American citizens, so she was an American at birth and eligible to be President.

[Steven43]

I have seen Susan Rice's name out there a bit. I know very little about her but she has senior public sector experience and excellent academic credentials (which no one seems to care about anymore). I don't know if there are any skeletons in her closet.

Going down the same path, I looked into Val Jarrett, who didn't have a specific role but was very senior in the Obama administration. It looks like she was born abroad so I think that rules her out?

Carol Moseley Braun is over 70 and I think has had some ups and downs since leaving office so I'm assuming that is a no go.

And there is the Democrat fantasy of Michelle Obama, but I wouldn't count on that.

I think Biden boxed himself in by committing so early to having a woman. Women are a huge constituency who he has to appeal to, but I think a minority man could have gotten him pretty much to the same place.

Yeah, I don’t know why Biden boxed himself in that way. Did he make that announcement during a particularly crucial time in the race for the Democratic nomination when he really needed a boost? I don’t recall the circumstances.

When you say “minority man”, do you mean any male who isn’t White, i.e., someone who is either Black, Latino, Asian, Indian/Pakistani, Middle Eastern or Native American? Do you consider a candidate from any of those groups as being equally advantageous for Biden?

And who do you think would have been the best choice had he decided on a minority man? Cory Booker? Andrew Yang?

[CameronBornAndBred]

I disagree with anyone who says that Biden "boxed himself in" with saying he will choose a woman. That term implies the options are too limited to be successful, which is anything but the truth. Biden's biggest problem is that he has a wealth of qualified candidates to select from, and the last time I looked, being that wealthy in a choice is a great place to be.
Notice I said "candidates", not "women". Everyone he is seriously looking at is qualified, and the one he ultimately does choose will likely be a great asset on the campaign trail.

[JasonEvans]

Why turnout matters...

All you need to do is look at the A+ rated ABXC/WashPost poll released on Sunday.

Among all adults, Biden leads Trump by a whopping 13 points, 53-40.
Among registered voters, Biden leads Trump by a strong 10 points, 53-43.
Among likely voters, Biden leads Trump by a marginal 5 points, 51-46.

If Biden can turn out folks who are not likely voters because they stayed home in past elections, he wins this in a walk. If he struggles with turnout, Trump has a very real chance to win this. Remember that Trump can probably lose by 2 or maybe even 3 percentage points and still win the electoral college.

[Steven43]

I disagree with anyone who says that Biden "boxed himself in" with saying he will choose a woman. That term implies the options are too limited to be successful, which is anything but the truth. Biden's biggest problem is that he has a wealth of qualified candidates to select from, and the last time I looked, being that wealthy in a choice is a great place to be.
Notice I said "candidates", not "women". Everyone he is seriously looking at is qualified, and the one he ultimately does choose will likely be a great asset on the campaign trail.

I think you are completely misreading what was intended by the term “boxed in”. In my mind it simply meant that the moment Biden declared he is going to choose a woman, well, that instantly meant all of the potential men candidates were permanently off limits for him. That’s not at all a value judgement on the viability of the women candidates, as you seem to think.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Why turnout matters...

All you need to do is look at the A+ rated ABXC/WashPost poll released on Sunday.

Among all adults, Biden leads Trump by a whopping 13 points, 53-40.
Among registered voters, Biden leads Trump by a strong 10 points, 53-43.
Among likely voters, Biden leads Trump by a marginal 5 points, 51-46.

If Biden can turn out folks who are not likely voters because they stayed home in past elections, he wins this in a walk. If he struggles with turnout, Trump has a very real chance to win this. Remember that Trump can probably lose by 2 or maybe even 3 percentage points and still win the electoral college.

I was pondering this while watching the protests the last few nights. The shear numbers of people out there is mind boggling, and I thought to myself, "I wonder how many of those people go to the polls."
Atlanta's mayor backed me up on that in her anger, as she implored the people in her city to stop the looting and violence; "if you want your voice heard, then vote!". Can't argue with that logic.

KLB has to be moving up in Biden's list. (I don't know enough about her to know if it would be a wise choice or not, but right now she's blazing hot.) I bet Stacey Abrams would feel that sting if it were to come to pass.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Yeah, I don’t know why Biden boxed himself in that way. Did he make that announcement during a particularly crucial time in the race for the Democratic nomination when he really needed a boost? I don’t recall the circumstances.

When you say “minority man”, do you mean any male who isn’t White, i.e., someone who is either Black, Latino, Asian, Indian/Pakistani, Middle Eastern or Native American? Do you consider a candidate from any of those groups as being equally advantageous for Biden?

And who do you think would have been the best choice had he decided on a minority man? Cory Booker? Andrew Yang?

I'm just saying that in today's Democratic party, two white dudes wouldn't fly. How one would define "minority" is a fair question. One could argue that Mayor Pete is a minority but I don't think that is what people are looking for. Like you, I don't recall the exact timing of his announcement but the momentum shifted very quickly and I don't think that at that time he needed the extra momentum of promising a woman, though I could be wrong. It just never makes sense to limit your options unless you have to, particularly with the world changing as quickly as it is.

I'm not completely focused on a specific minority man but Booker keeps coming to mind, though I haven't done as much homework on him as I should. Whatever happened to Shane running for president - he is in his 40s now, and he is from Michigan, a critical swing state!

I had heard Tammy Duckworth's name thrown around a few weeks ago but she seems to have dropped off the list?

[bundabergdevil]

I'm just saying that in today's Democratic party, two white dudes wouldn't fly. How one would define "minority" is a fair question. One could argue that Mayor Pete is a minority but I don't think that is what people are looking for. Like you, I don't recall the exact timing of his announcement but the momentum shifted very quickly and I don't think that at that time he needed the extra momentum of promising a woman, though I could be wrong. It just never makes sense to limit your options unless you have to, particularly with the world changing as quickly as it is.

I'm not completely focused on a specific minority man but Booker keeps coming to mind, though I haven't done as much homework on him as I should. Whatever happened to Shane running for president - he is in his 40s now, and he is from Michigan, a critical swing state!

I had heard Tammy Duckworth's name thrown around a few weeks ago but she seems to have dropped off the list?

For political purposes, I tend to define identity or minority in accordance with voting blocs. A voting bloc can be African Americans, which tend to vote Democrat. But it can also be an evangelical white man, like Pence, who was every bit an identity play to shore up Trump's weakness and be his Christian sherpa to those voters.

I think Biden's promise to select a woman VP was primarily intended to harness the energy generated by the women's march, MeToo movements, etc. Those movements aren't beholden to the Dems but do have a more natural home there and need courting. However, in 2016 about 50% of women voted for Trump IIRC so there's an assumption in the Dem party that may be slightly off. On the flip side, well-educated suburban women were critical to the 2018 blue wave and appear to be migrating more and more to the Dem side of things.

Look, if African American turnout comes out Dem at levels anywhere near the Obama years, Trump cannot win. Given the current environment, Biden sure as heck better not do anything to dampen that voting bloc's enthusiasm.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

For political purposes, I tend to define identity or minority in accordance with voting blocs. A voting bloc can be African Americans, which tend to vote Democrat. But it can also be an evangelical white man, like Pence, who was every bit an identity play to shore up Trump's weakness and be his Christian sherpa to those voters.

I think Biden's promise to select a woman VP was primarily intended to harness the energy generated by the women's march, MeToo movements, etc. Those movements aren't beholden to the Dems but do have a more natural home there and need courting. However, in 2016 about 50% of women voted for Trump IIRC so there's an assumption in the Dem party that may be slightly off. On the flip side, well-educated suburban women were critical to the 2018 blue wave and appear to be migrating more and more to the Dem side of things.

Look, if African American turnout comes out Dem at levels anywhere near the Obama years, Trump cannot win. Given the current environment, Biden sure as heck better not do anything to dampen that voting bloc's enthusiasm.

Quiet Biden is Best Biden right now.

[lotusland]

While there may be some perfectly good explanations for Klobuchar's decisions and actions regarding police officers during her time as a prosecutor this is not a court of law, it is the court of public opinion. And, in some circles, she has shown herself to be on the wrong side of this very important issue. It may be that she never did a single thing wrong about police prosecutions, but if Biden picks her he is going to have a firestorm of outrage and criticism from AfAm commentators and activists. He already had the mini-gaffe of essentially saying all Blacks must vote for him. The last thing he needs is to pick a white VP who draws the ire of the Black community.

There are choices that do not make a large percentage of his base angry. Why pick one that will? Biden's people will tell him that there just isn't any reason to make a forseeable error on the VP pick. At this point, Klobuchar would be an error.

-Jason "Klobuchar is out... unless she is able to rehab her image in a way that makes virtually everyone in the Black community back her, which seems unlikely" Evans

That’s my view as well. Amy would make a fine Veep but but so would Kamala Harris or Susan Rice.

[JasonEvans]

Quiet Biden is Best Biden right now.

I was listening to Governors Pritzger and Cuomo on CNN this evening (after the national guard cleared out the protesters so the President could safely cross the street and take a photo with a bible in his hand in front of an historic church) and I was lamenting that Biden was silent.

I would pay good money right now for Biden to step aside so Cuomo or one of these other Governors could step up. Leadership in a crisis may be the single most important quality in a President.

[lotusland]

Beyond the permissible scope of this thread to comment on whether they are legitimate skeletons or not, but Susan Rice was smack in the middle of the Benghazi fallout.

Also had an ill advised chat with Bill Clinton while the DOJ was investigating Hillary’s email.

I don’t think that disqualifies her though. I suspect only hard core partisans care about that but not swing voters. But Trump would definitely make a big deal of it.

[JasonEvans]

Also had an ill advised chat with Bill Clinton while the DOJ was investigating Hillary’s email.

I don’t think that disqualifies her though. I suspect only hard core partisans care about that but not swing voters. But Trump would definitely make a big deal of it.

Susan Rice certainly seems qualified but her association with Benghazi feels like an unnecessary risk for Biden. Sorta like Klobuchar, she violates the DO NO HARM maxim because of that. You know Trump would love to scream about Hillary and her deep state allies to his followers and Rice certainly falls into that category. When she declined to be Obama's Sec of State because of Benghazi, that was sorta an admission that she's tainted in a pretty big way. I don't think she's seriously under consideration.

[sagegrouse]

Also had an ill advised chat with Bill Clinton while the DOJ was investigating Hillary’s email.

I don’t think that disqualifies her though. I suspect only hard core partisans care about that but not swing voters. But Trump would definitely make a big deal of it.

Sorry, that was AG Loretta Lynch.

[Bluedog]

However, in 2016 about 50% of women voted for Trump IIRC so there's an assumption in the Dem party that may be slightly off.

The female vote was 54-39 in favor of HRC, so a dominating 15% gap. However, Trump did marginally win the white women vote 47-45, so maybe that's what you're referring to. He dominated the non-college educated white women vote 64-28 as well (HRC won college educated females 55-38).

Interestingly, among non-whites, Trump actually did better with college-educated than non-college, but he was dominated in both of those categories.
https://www.people-press.org/2018/08...idated-voters/

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I was listening to Governors Pritzger and Cuomo on CNN this evening (after the national guard cleared out the protesters so the President could safely cross the street and take a photo with a bible in his hand in front of an historic church) and I was lamenting that Biden was silent.

I would pay good money right now for Biden to step aside so Cuomo or one of these other Governors could step up. Leadership in a crisis may be the single most important quality in a President.

Cuomo has been excellent in the face of the impossible.

To be clear, I meant that it was expedient in terms of the election for Biden to simply let Trump continue to do all the talking. I didn't mean it as a commentary on leadership.

[Steven43]

Cuomo has been excellent in the face of the impossible.

To be clear, I meant that it was expedient in terms of the election for Biden to simply let Trump continue to do all the talking. I didn't mean it as a commentary on leadership.

Agreed. Cuomo has been a rock through this entire pandemic. That’s what real leadership looks like.

Biden is wise to sit this one out; it’s a no-win situation politically. If he were to strongly support the protests it could seem that he is also tacitly sanctioning the violence, looting, and vandalism — though that would definitely not be his intention. If he goes strongly to the law and order side he would just seem to be Trump-light. I guess in this case it’s better to stay silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt.

[bundabergdevil]

The female vote was 54-39 in favor of HRC, so a dominating 15% gap. However, Trump did marginally win the white women vote 47-45, so maybe that's what you're referring to. He dominated the non-college educated white women vote 64-28 as well (HRC won college educated females 55-38).

Interestingly, among non-whites, Trump actually did better with college-educated than non-college, but he was dominated in both of those categories.
https://www.people-press.org/2018/08...idated-voters/

Yes, my fault for the mistake, not checking, and no citation. Thanks for the correction.

[acdevil]

I’m not so sure Biden is “sitting this out”. He had a few public events yesterday. It’s just the media aren’t hyping (or even putting them on) at this point.

[OldPhiKap]

Looks like Biden’s approach is trumping Trump’s for now:

AF11FEA6-AF62-4D35-BED4-8AA697C4EAB1.jpg

Hard to disapprove of what you don’t see, compared to the alternative being presented.