Clinton Landslide: 350+ EVs
Clinton strong win: 325-350 EVs
Clinton solid win: 300-324 EVs
Clinton close win: 280-299 EVs
Clinton barely wins: 270-279 EVs
Tie: 269-269 EVs (also vote here if neither candidate get to 270)
Trump barely wins: 270-279 EVs
Trump close win: 280-299 EVs
Trump solid win: 300-324 EVs
Trump strong win: 325+ EVs
Meanwhile, Nate Silver has raised the chances of a Trump win (or a Clinton loss, however you look at it), up to 25%.
I guess that makes more sense, but doesn't it presume the traffic is human-initiated in this context? The server was sending out spammy marketing stuff, so it could have been doing that on a regular basis. The timestamp discussion in the article didn't really address that, it just said they didn't think the data was faked, rather than addressing scheduling.
Yeah, their meaningless and panicky posts are both funny and a tad pathetic. The fact that this thread has naturally, through legitimate and compelling conversation, reached this many posts speaks volumes. Props to everyone who has kept the conversation stimulating and not (too) aggressive.
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
Clinton gets some unexpected support from Scott Walker.
"I swear Roy must redeem extra timeouts at McDonald's the day after the game for free hamburgers." --Posted on InsideCarolina, 2/18/2015
Yes, and getting a tad personal I might add. Beware that your DBR "member" bona fides aren't questioned (Really LTEers, REALLY?) If you're older than a 5th grader it's all terribly droll and if you're younger than a 5th grader, well, you probably have a legitimate excuse.
Folks, there is no competition. It is silly. This thread's purpose is to provide some intelligent and thoughtful folks with a non-partisan, non-argumentative outlet for talking about the presidential election. That thread's purpose is to be long. Just because this thread has gotten long, it does not mean there is suddenly some desire or effort to make this thread longer than that one. It is not going to happen and no one should care anyway.
If I actually wanted a thread to be longer than the LTE, I would merely merge all the threads about Duke hoops recruiting into one thread (not just this year, but every year of recruiting -- it would be called "ongoing recruiting collector thread") and it would dwarf the LTE. What's more it would actually be more connected and logical as one thread than the LTE is. But, that is not how DBR works and if some folks want to have fun by maintaining a thread that's sole purpose is to keep on going on and on and on and on, that's perfectly fine.
-Jason "meanwhile, I promise I am not even remotely concerned or worried that Hillary is going to blow this. See, I'm not worried. If I say it enough it must be true, right?" Evans
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
I sincerely hope that everyone on both threads finds it only mildly interesting that these threads are momentarily vying for the length trophy. I know I do.
Anyone who is getting legitimately distressed probably ought to step away from the keyboard for a deep breath.
All in good fun!
Sage Grouse
---------------------------------------
'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013
Posted without comment to retain neutrality.
You matter.
Unless you multiply yourself by the speed of light squared.
Then, you energy.
LTE is a fun thread, this is a fun thread. Different purposes. 'Nuf said.
This should be where early voting, and a superior ground game, give Hillary the legs she needs to pull this one out. But if FL and NC are called early for Trump a week from tonight, it's gonna be a Maalox masher of a finish.
In news both relevant to the election and catching the LTE, the WaPo discusses "overtime"
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...=.c5d8cb58e4fe
This morning, election rules expert Michael McDonald argues that if the outcome is close, the election could very well “go into overtime,” adding that “in this environment,” this could “rip this country apart.” McDonald posits that in a very close finish, Trump could be favored on election night, but over subsequent days, as the vote counting continues afterwards, Clinton might then edge into the lead:
A Democratic shift from election night to the final tally of votes is predictable. All states count some ballots late, and those tend to break towards Democrats. Nothing nefarious occurs: the casting and counting follow procedures laid out in state law. Some of the states that count more late ballots are key battlegrounds, magnifying the suspense on Election Night.
Mail ballots are one of two types that can shift election results. Many states require mail ballots to be received by election officials on Election Day. Others continue to accept ballots postmarked on Election Day, up to two weeks following the election. Among these states are Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, and Wisconsin.
These late ballots may break towards the Democrats. My analysis shows more Democrats than Republicans in Iowa and North Carolina have yet to return their mail ballots. Why? These voters tend to be younger people who tend to return their ballots later. If Trump is slightly ahead in a late mail-ballot return state, he could fall behind after all the mail ballots are counted.
Then there are provisional ballots. States are required under federal law to provide them to anyone with a problem at the polls — a voter who doesn’t have the required form of ID, for instance, or whose name is missing from the voter registration rolls. Election officials review provisional ballots and allow voters to clarify their eligibility after Election Day. In the four states that report separate results for provisional ballots, the voters who cast them broke strongly for the Democrats. So if the presidential race is particularly close, provisional ballots could tilt it.
Popularity contests are really no indication of a job well done. I would say it's more of a sign of folks already missing Obama knowing that one of Trump or Clinton will be replacing him.
Did you know that George W. Bush is now more popular than Bill J. Clinton?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...-bill-clinton/
It is hard to respond to your comment without going into PPB board topics, but I think that but numerous measures, the country has been immensely successful during Obama's tenure, particularly given where things were when he started. A high tide does not raise all ships, but there are many, many people who are happy with the direction in which the country has moved over the last eight years. I agree that the two options being presented make him look even better (I made the repeal the 22nd Amendment comment yesterday), but he deserves credit as well. Just to show that I am not being totally partisan, as a NYC resident, I felt the same way when the very liberal deBlasio made his way into office basing his campaign on how bad Bloomberg had been for the city.
Hate to say I told you so....but the latest 538 projections have Trump winning Florida, up in Ohio and Iowa, and barely losing in North Carolina. Odds for Hillary down to 71.2%.
This election has been entirely about public announcements. Hillary was up big, then came the FBI ruling in July. She plummeted through the first week of August. Then came Trump and his attack on the Khan family. He plummeted. Then came the "Basket of Deplorables" fiasco. Hillary plummeted. Then game the First Debate and the Bush-Trump taped conversation. He plummeted. Now it's Comey and the "no concrete news" investigation. Hillary is plummeting.
Unless something new comes out about Trump in the next few days (and it certainly could), I will stand by my current prediction. Trump wins Florida, Ohio, Iowa, North Carolina and Nevada. This election comes down to Michigan, New Hampshire and Colorado (all - at the moment - fairly solid towards Hillary). GOP retains Senate by winning North Carolina, Nevada, Missouri, and one of either New Hampshire or Indiana.
We then face the worst case scenario - either a Trump win with the GOP. Or a Hillary barely win (272 electoral votes) with a GOP Senate and Trump not conceding for days (if not weeks/ever). I think you all know where I stand (solidly behind Clinton). To be honest, I would rather have Trump win, then to have Hillary barely win and then have the GOP with the Senate. At least in the former (I believe), the GOP will eventually self-destruct, and when the economy doesn't improve (it likely won't under either), and Trump doesn't get done what he said he would (no wall, no repeal of Obamacare, no stop of terrorism in the US) and does what he can (restrictions on abortions, gay marriage, appointment of conservative judges), the backlash in 2 years will be immense. That happens no matter who wins, by the way.
Just an amazing election season. I'm so, so, so, so ready for it to be over. Like the worst root canal while watching the end of a close UNC -Duke game and a remarkably tense horror movie at the same time.