2021 Men's Basketball Recruiting Thread

[SlapTheFloor]

Nobody is writing their obituary. It has been 2 years since they won that title game. And in those two years they were notable worse than they were at their peak.

It is certainly possible that they return to their peak. But it is also true that they have been worse the past 2 years. Still good, but the wording of “faded a bit” is appropriate.

Sure, but that's a very lofty standard. Over that two year span, in aggregate, they've been better than us. Better than Kentucky. Better than UNC.

[jimsumner]

Jack Givens should have sent Bill Foster a box of chocolates every year for trying to defend him with that inept zone in that particular day. Let's just hope he misses the next one!

By 1978 standards Duke was exceptionally young, starting two freshmen, two sophomores and one junior. Kentucky was a very experienced team, with a rotation consisting mostly of juniors and seniors, including seniors Givens and Rick Robey. I think that experience edge was very important that night.

[CDu]

Sure, but that's a very lofty standard. Over that two year span, in aggregate, they've been better than us. Better than Kentucky. Better than UNC.

We were better last year, they were better this year. But yes, we have clearly faded as well. Kentucky has faded a ton from their 2015 peak. Our performance doesn’t mean that UVa hasn’t also faded.

[cato]

Sure, but that's a very lofty standard. Over that two year span, in aggregate, they've been better than us. Better than Kentucky. Better than UNC.

The lofty standard is the point. There is no formula and it takes an exceptional coach and program to reach those heights in separate cycles. Gary Williams and Maryland didn’t do it. UVA may well pull it off, but I suspect they won’t.

[SlapTheFloor]

We were better last year, they were better this year. But yes, we have clearly faded as well. Kentucky has faded a ton from their 2015 peak. Our performance doesn’t mean that UVa hasn’t also faded.

I don't think we've "faded" either. Programs, even the most consistent ones, just have down years. This year was especially difficult. I think Duke will be very good next year. I don't know how UVa will fare. Maybe they'll lose too much. Maybe they'll mine the transfer market and be back in contention. But I certainly wouldn't look at the last two years as evidence of a downward trend in the program.

[SlapTheFloor]

The lofty standard is the point. There is no formula and it takes an exceptional coach and program to reach those heights in separate cycles. Gary Williams and Maryland didn’t do it. UVA may well pull it off, but I suspect they won’t.

So, your prediction is that they won't ever be a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament again? Or that they won't make another Final Four? Or simply that they won't win another championship?

[CDu]

I don't think we've "faded" either. Programs, even the most consistent ones, just have down years. This year was especially difficult. I think Duke will be very good next year. I don't know how UVa will fare. Maybe they'll lose too much. Maybe they'll mine the transfer market and be back in contention. But I certainly wouldn't look at the last two years as evidence of a downward trend in the program.

I would say both programs have taken a step back. Both programs could bounce back next year too. I feel pretty confident we will. For UVa, it will likely depend upon whether they are successful on the transfer market as I doubt their returning players will be enough (and especially not if Murphy goes pro).

Neither has taken a step back the way Kentucky has, but both have taken a step back. And that's fine. It happens. But it's still a step back. Hopefully for us it is just temporary (in our case, it really could just be a one-year blip).

[SlapTheFloor]

I would say both programs have taken a step back. Both programs could bounce back next year too. I feel pretty confident we will. For UVa, it will likely depend upon whether they are successful on the transfer market as I doubt their returning players will be enough (and especially not if Murphy goes pro).

Neither has taken a step back the way Kentucky has, but both have taken a step back. And that's fine. It happens. But it's still a step back. Hopefully for us it is just temporary (in our case, it really could just be a one-year blip).

Ok. That's fair. But you seem to be arguing something different than what Cato is arguing. I thought your earlier statement was a show of support for his prediction that UVa would go the way of post-2002 Maryland.

[CDu]

Ok. That's fair. But you seem to be arguing something different than what Cato is arguing. I thought your earlier statement was a show of support for his prediction that UVa would go the way of post-2002 Maryland.

I was just showing support for the statement that UVa has faded a bit. I won’t make any predictions about where they are going until I see who they have.

[cato]

So, your prediction is that they won't ever be a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament again? Or that they won't make another Final Four? Or simply that they won't win another championship?

I’m not making any bold claims here. UVA is simply on the decline from the stratospheric heights of being one of the 2-3 best teams in the country a few years running, concluding with a national championship. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them make another run like that under Bennett, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t.

I do expect them to remain a top tier ACC team for the foreseeable future.

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

I don't think we've "faded" either. Programs, even the most consistent ones, just have down years. This year was especially difficult. I think Duke will be very good next year. I don't know how UVa will fare. Maybe they'll lose too much. Maybe they'll mine the transfer market and be back in contention. But I certainly wouldn't look at the last two years as evidence of a downward trend in the program.

After watching many, many games the past two weeks, it’s become very clear to me that the Duke backcourt this season was very weak, both on offense and defense, compared to many of this year’s tournament teams. Without a major improvement/upgrade over the next 7 months, I’m concerned that Duke will not be very good next year.

[arnie]

After watching many, many games the past two weeks, it’s become very clear to me that the Duke backcourt this season was very weak, both on offense and defense, compared to many of this year’s tournament teams. Without a major improvement/upgrade over the next 7 months, I’m concerned that Duke will not be very good next year.

Agree; it’s going to take huge improvement by Roach/Steward and Moore if we’re thinking Top 10. Think Banchero/Williams and maybe Griffin will be a strong front court; but got to have great guard play and we fell far short in 2021.

[ElliottHoo]

I would say both programs have taken a step back. Both programs could bounce back next year too. I feel pretty confident we will. For UVa, it will likely depend upon whether they are successful on the transfer market as I doubt their returning players will be enough (and especially not if Murphy goes pro).

Neither has taken a step back the way Kentucky has, but both have taken a step back. And that's fine. It happens. But it's still a step back. Hopefully for us it is just temporary (in our case, it really could just be a one-year blip).

I'd bet pretty heavily on you guys being better than UVA next year. Bennett has done surprisingly well with transfers, but Duke's roster is looking *really* stacked next year.

[UrinalCake]

UVA is still the reigning National Champions as of today, are they not? Hard to claim they're in a decline while they literally hold the title.

[Kedsy]

Without a major improvement/upgrade over the next 7 months, I’m concerned that Duke will not be very good next year.

Agree; it’s going to take huge improvement by Roach/Steward and Moore if we’re thinking Top 10. Think Banchero/Williams and maybe Griffin will be a strong front court; but got to have great guard play and we fell far short in 2021.

I wish I cared enough to bother with pie bets. Or any other kind of bet, for that matter.

[RPS]

After watching many, many games the past two weeks, it’s become very clear to me that the Duke backcourt this season was very weak, both on offense and defense, compared to many of this year’s tournament teams. Without a major improvement/upgrade over the next 7 months, I’m concerned that Duke will not be very good next year.

Al McGuire used to say that the best thing about freshmen is that they become sophomores. Seems quaint now, doesn't it? Still, the potential for growth between years one and two is enormous, particularly for guards and especially because of the nature of this season.

I'm also much less struck by the quality of the guard play than I am by the low quality of the play generally. So many players leaving for the NBA has diluted the talent level dramatically *and* limited teams' from growing and developing the way they used to.

[cato]

UVA is still the reigning National Champions as of today, are they not? Hard to claim they're in a decline while they literally hold the title.

I dunno. Which is a better predictor of future success: holding the Walton Belt or winning the NCAAs two years ago?

[Eternal Outlaw]

UVA is still the reigning National Champions as of today, are they not? Hard to claim they're in a decline while they literally hold the title.

So in one week they can be in decline even though there would be no new results for a game they played in? Seems odd way to look at it. People know their results to factor into their opinions, the fact 4 teams are still playing doesn't change anything for Virginia. If Virginia would have gone 10-40 the past two years and still be the last NCAA champion would you be standing by this metric? If not, what's the explanation? Probably something to do with their last two years of results right? The same thing people are factoring into their opinions right now.

[CDu]

UVA is still the reigning National Champions as of today, are they not? Hard to claim they're in a decline while they literally hold the title.

So because there wasn’t a tourney last year (one that UVa almost certainly wasn’t going to win) it doesn’t mean that the two years of being a 4-seed (or worse) caliber team aren’t in a bit of a fade from the two years of being a 1 seed?

Last year happened, even without the tournament. By your suggestion’s logic, UNC hasn’t had a season where they were bad enough to miss the tournament.

[MarkD83]

I dunno. Which is a better predictor of future success: holding the Walton Belt or winning the NCAAs two years ago?

Since we are way off topic.... if UCLA earns the Walton belt will bill present it to them and will it then be retired? (Which final 4 team has it now?)