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  1. #2401
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    How this will play out

    Here's a really good, but scary, article by Ed Yong of the Atlantic, on how this pandemic may play out. Yong is a very good science writer. His book I Contain Multitudes is a great read.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...us-end/608719/

  2. #2402
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    Zion

    Nice article on how a New Orleans pastor is using Zion to inspire people to help others during the pandemic. https://www.washingtonpost.com/sport...-congregation/

  3. #2403
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    I've been skimming through a couple of old Richard Preston books. Hot Zone, Crisis in the Red Zone. In the second, it's striking how bad the ebola outbreak had to get - and how long it went on - before villages in certain regions finally moved away from deeply entrenched cultural practices and beliefs and adopted a self-imposed social distancing policy. I mean, for all our modern science, the long-term solution is the same everywhere: starve the damn thing of "food".

    The other item that stood out was how similar Congolese ebola conspiracy theories were to those being propagated here --- and how they undermined the response.

    Namely, that ebola was:
    - brought in by foreigners for nefarious purpose
    - a lie to boost this or that politician (an outbreak was on the eve of local elections)
    - a money-making scheme
    - a bio-weapon to reduce Africa's population (perhaps but not of human design and intent)
    - a punishment from God on account of their sins (mostly the LGTBQ kind)
    - an outright lie and that it just didn't exist in some places

    There was also a YUGE problem with self-professed experts getting on the local radio stations, publishing articles with all sorts of theories and misinformation professing to have some insight into solving the problem.

    We are predictable beasts.
    Thank you, this articulates something I've been noticing: in country after country in Europe and the U.S. the same pattern happens:
    (1) Coronavirus is happening in other countries but not enough people take it seriously enough to take action
    (2) Coronavirus happens
    (3) People lament that their citizens and/or their politicians are uniquely stupid in failing to stop an eminently stoppable disaster

    ...except if the same thing happens over and over in different countries, maybe it's a human thing and not unique to your country? There are a lot of criticisms I could make (and have made) about folks' reactions in the U.S. but we're not so different from a lot of other countries. Asia seems to handle it better, but maybe that's because they've had previous virus scares (SARS) that have worked their way into the public memory? Apparently it's difficult to respond to something that's not within the realm of public experience. We know the Spanish flu happened, but it's not really within living memory (barring a few centenarian outliers) so it doesn't spring to mind for most people when assimilating information about the current environment.

  4. #2404
    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    . Asia seems to handle it better, but maybe that's because they've had previous virus scares (SARS) that have worked their way into the public memory? Apparently it's difficult to respond to something that's not within the realm of public experience. We know the Spanish flu happened, but it's not really within living memory (barring a few centenarian outliers) so it doesn't spring to mind for most people when assimilating information about the current environment.
    I agree with the sentiment in your post but I don't think Asia has handled it better because of SARS and such. It has more to do with societal and cultural norm differences between Asian and Western cultures. The U.S. and Europe is all about individual liberties and freedom. In Asia, societies are much more likely to follow guidelines of authority and frankly have more reverence for the elderly. So, governments that imposed rules in Asia where largely followed. Governments in Europe and the U.S. are less likely to impose similar limitations to begin with and even when they do, it's citizens are less likely to be in 100% lockstep. Easier to control it when you can set up strict rules that nearly everybody is going to follow from the onset.

  5. #2405
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    There's also a lot of ground between NYC/San Fran/Seattle and the small towns in the remote part of Wyoming. A family member of mine is an ICU nurse at one of the major hospitals in Nebraska. The area --- Omaha/Lincoln --- has 750K people living between the two cities, which are about 50 miles apart. She said they are converting her unit to handle more COVID patients. This is on top of having already added 20 beds to their biocontainment unit. Apparently, similar to what others have mentioned on the thread, this hospital is prepping their surgeons and administrators to reengage in direct patient care. There's no surge yet but the hospital seems to think it could happen in the next few weeks.
    For perspective, that 750,000 in Nebraska is larger than the entire population of Wyoming!

  6. #2406
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Westport, CT
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...ot-resucitate/

    Wow.

    This article is extremely provocative and discusses how hospital systems are beginning to have discussions about changing the way we respond to "Code Blue" calls for patients with COVID 19.

    Several hospital systems are saying that having a "all hands on deck" response should not occur due to the excessive use of PPE and potential futility in doing CPR in patients with COVID 19. When a code is called in a hospital now a call goes out over the PA system and beeper system and a whole slew of people respond (interns, residents, nurses, respiratory therapists, anesthesiologists, intensivists, and clergy). Sometimes it's hard to get into the room as the attending physician with so many people there.

    Several approaches, it seems, are being discussed. First, make all intubated patients with COVID 19 "NO CODE" despite their or their families wishes, second, override patient and family wishes on a case by case basis, or third, limit the number of people who respond to the code and change some methods during resuscitation.

    This wanders deeply into the Public Policy restrictions on this board and I won't offer any opinion here. It is just fact. This is being discussed.

    This is very real.

  7. #2407
    Quote Originally Posted by Rich View Post
    Two words: stock market
    I believe it relates more to the broader economic activity. Shut down companies mean no jobs for citizens. That leads to greater hardship that can last for years.

  8. #2408
    Quote Originally Posted by Indoor66 View Post
    I believe it relates more to the broader economic activity. Shut down companies mean no jobs for citizens. That leads to greater hardship that can last for years.
    Death tends to be a pretty great hardship that lasts for years too.

  9. #2409
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Rent free in tarheels’ heads
    Have not seen a lot of discussion about the potential impact of weather on coronavirus and the spread of C-19. This BBC article seems to do a good job of addressing various theories, although it’s clear from their repeated reference to unpublished analysis that no one is at all sure what will happen. But there are glimmers of hope that a change in weather could help buy us some added time to keep flattening the curve.

    https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2...-kill-covid-19
    “Coach said no 3s.” - Zion on The Block

  10. #2410
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Deeetroit City
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Death tends to be a pretty great hardship that lasts for years too.
    Economic hardship can lead to death. Fatality rates may exceed Covid-19. There has to be balance. Striking that balance is PP territory.

  11. #2411
    Quote Originally Posted by BD80 View Post
    Economic hardship can lead to death. Fatality rates may exceed Covid-19. There has to be balance. Striking that balance is PP territory.
    Fair point. I shall back off.

  12. #2412
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    It has more to do with societal and cultural norm differences between Asian and Western cultures. The U.S. and Europe is all about individual liberties and freedom. In Asia, societies are much more likely to follow guidelines of authority and frankly have more reverence for the elderly.
    Bingo!

    As someone who lived and traveled extensively in Asia, I agree with the quoted comments.
    Bob Green

  13. #2413
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Reasonably good chance we take over as the most confirmed cases in the world by the end of the day. China is about 13,000 cases ahead of us, Italy about 6,000. But China until yesterday hadn't had any new confirmed cases in a while (had 67 new cases and 6 new deaths yesterday), and Italy's new case rate appears to have finally peaked (around 5,500-6,000 new cases per day the past 3 days), while our new case rate was up to 13,000+ yesterday and appears to still be climbing quickly as our testing increases and as the virus circulates. So unless we see a sudden decline in incidence or Italy or China sees another rebound, we will probably overtake both today. If not today, almost certainly tomorrow.

    Now, of course it's important to note that our population is ~5.5 times greater than Italy's, and our containment strategy pales in comparison to that of China. So it shouldn't be shocking that we'll overtake them. I guess it is a bit more surprising how quickly it is happening. And I do wonder where and when our peak will be.

  14. #2414
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Now, of course it's important to note that our population is ~5.5 times greater than Italy's, and our containment strategy pales in comparison to that of China. So it shouldn't be shocking that we'll overtake them. I guess it is a bit more surprising how quickly it is happening. And I do wonder where and when our peak will be.
    I'm most worried about India. Africa is also a time bomb waiting to happen. If this virus proves to be more resistant to heat and humidity the problems American and Europe are having will look minor compared to Africa.

  15. #2415
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Westport, CT
    Here's some good news.

    Necessity is the mother of invention once again:

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/tech/...rus/index.html

    Dyson developed a ventilator for mass production in 10 days and he is calling it the CoVent. 15,000 to be made in short order.

    Brilliant!

    I hope it doesn't suck

  16. #2416
    Question from the non-statistician in the group - they have been reporting the increase in confirmed cases locally. Wouldn't the number of cases as a percent of those tested be a relevant piece of information? If the cases doubled but the number tested also doubled, it doesn't seem as troubling to me but if the number tested stayed the same, it would be much scarier. Example - Day 1 150 positive out of 1000 tested and 300 out of 2000 on Day 2 vs 300 out of 1500 tested on Day 2.

  17. #2417
    Quote Originally Posted by BD80 View Post
    Economic hardship can lead to death. Fatality rates may exceed Covid-19. There has to be balance. Striking that balance is PP territory.
    I've seen this sentiment expressed in many places, and I'm sympathetic to the argument, but on the other hand: did the Great Depression increase death rates? Did death rates increase in the civilian population in World War 2 when a massive chunk of our GDP was diverted to military production? AFAIK the answer is no, but history buffs may know better.

  18. #2418
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Northwest NC
    Quote Originally Posted by fisheyes View Post
    Here's some good news.

    Necessity is the mother of invention once again:

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/tech/...rus/index.html

    Dyson developed a ventilator for mass production in 10 days and he is calling it the CoVent. 15,000 to be made in short order.

    Brilliant!

    I hope it doesn't suck
    If this works and they really are able to get it to market that quickly it would be astonishing. Hopefully they will.

  19. #2419
    Quote Originally Posted by DukieInKansas View Post
    Question from the non-statistician in the group - they have been reporting the increase in confirmed cases locally. Wouldn't the number of cases as a percent of those tested be a relevant piece of information? If the cases doubled but the number tested also doubled, it doesn't seem as troubling to me but if the number tested stayed the same, it would be much scarier. Example - Day 1 150 positive out of 1000 tested and 300 out of 2000 on Day 2 vs 300 out of 1500 tested on Day 2.
    If anybody's interested in testing data by state, here you go:
    https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en/test

  20. #2420
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New Jersey
    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    I agree with the sentiment in your post but I don't think Asia has handled it better because of SARS and such. It has more to do with societal and cultural norm differences between Asian and Western cultures. The U.S. and Europe is all about individual liberties and freedom. In Asia, societies are much more likely to follow guidelines of authority and frankly have more reverence for the elderly. So, governments that imposed rules in Asia where largely followed. Governments in Europe and the U.S. are less likely to impose similar limitations to begin with and even when they do, it's citizens are less likely to be in 100% lockstep. Easier to control it when you can set up strict rules that nearly everybody is going to follow from the onset.
    Also political regimes and history. I have a friend in Poland who indicated that they are taking the government closure rules, which are country-wide, much more seriously than we are in the US. Democracy is fairly new (comparatively) so the older population is conditioned to follow government rules/orders. When the government recently issued a stay in place edict, people didn't object and just follow it.
    Rich
    "Failure is Not a Destination"
    Coach K on the Dan Patrick Show, December 22, 2016

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