Looking Towards Next Season

[uh_no]

Time to start talking about how excited we are for football?

I'm guessing most of you would reject an invitation from me to the uconn bandwagon? and instead get the cans of gasoline and boxes of matches for said wagon?

[Acymetric]

I'm guessing most of you would reject an invitation from me to the uconn bandwagon? and instead get the cans of gasoline and boxes of matches for said wagon?

Sounds about right, sorry

[Wander]

Everything is about Williams. If he returns, we might have the best group at the 3–5 spots in the country.

I dunno what will happen with the guards. Whether they make big leaps or not is probably the difference between "NCAA tournament team" and "1 or 2 seed level tournament team".

[Native]

I'm guessing most of you would reject an invitation from me to the uconn bandwagon? and instead get the cans of gasoline and boxes of matches for said wagon?

I’d consider it but my butt is firmly planted in a seat on the Illinois bandwagon. My wishy-washy secondary allegiance may be many things, but it is not for sale, sir!

[throatybeard]

5 years ago, way fewer players were declaring for the draft than now (and I suspect COVID will result in more early entrants, not less, although it's just an educated guess and we'll find out for sure before too long).

That's true across the board, but the NBA isn't quite as thirsty for true 5s as they were at just about any time before the current sprawl ball era. So the five years ago comment makes some sense, because we're talking about a true 5. And if you went longer term...

[AZLA]

I am so very much hoping Williams is back next year. His enthusiasm and potentially is infectious. 19 rebounds yesterday. Wow.

[FerryFor50]

Wendell Moore: 31.0 mpg, 9.4 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 4.0 apg, 2.6 topg, 1.8 spg, 42.1 fg% (50.0 2pt%), 28.6 3pt%, 86.7 ft%. Moore played everywhere from pseudo PG to pseudo PF, and he had some terrific games in this stretch. He's still working to figure out what he can do consistently well. He does a little of everything, but hasn't quite put it together. Hopefully a more normal summer/offseason will allow him to really work on his ballhandling and decisionmaking. I wouldn't ever expect him to be a pass-first playmaker, but if he can get stronger off the dribble he can be a real asset with his FT shooting.

I think Moore does a few things well.

- He's a versatile defender with the speed to stay with most guards and the strength to play the post against bigger players
- He's a good finisher at the rim (but not great at getting there consistently)
- He's the best FT shooter on the team (but needs to work on getting to the line consistently)

I think he made excellent strides from the start of the year (when he landed outside of the rotation), had some rough patches late in the season and is going to be a key player for next year.

[CDu]

I agree that Williams is the big question. With him, the team has an entire other gear. We can go small and spread with Griffin at the PF and Banchero at C, or we can pair Banchero and Williams with a monstrous frontcourt. Losing Williams (which is a possibility, but hopefully won't happen from my selfish perspective) would take away our best interior defender and one of our "cheat code" type players.

Sounds like we have at least pursued Charles Bediako, and if we did lose Williams I'd think we'd push harder for him (even though we seem to be trailing in his recruitment). Bediako wouldn't be a full replacement for Williams, but it would help a little.

I would love for Goldwire to return too and be a key defensive minded reserve next year. We'll see.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Well, as you all know, the season ended earlier than expected. Just as the team was showing new life with a new defensive approach and offensive strategy, the wheels came off on the season thanks to COVID. Hopefully this is the last time we have our season affected by COVID. Having said, that I wanted to do a summary "state of the union" assessment, looking at the last 9 games. Why 9? Because the NC State game was the first in which Williams established himself as the first option at center and we essentially moved on from Jalen Johnson.

Over that 9 game stretch, we went 6-3, and played the equivalent of a top-10 team. And honestly, that 6-3 could easily have been 5-4 or 8-1, as we won by 1 over UVa and went to OT in 2 of the 3 losses. This team was a second-weekend-NCAA caliber team and Final Four threat. Unfortunately, it took them too long to get there (and of course COVID made it moot anyway). Had we gone 4-4 in games decided by 5 or fewer points instead of 2-6, we're 15-9 right now and probably in the field before COVID ended our season. But alas, that's moot. What's important is that the team showed clear development in this period. No, it wasn't perfect, nor consistent. But in aggregate, we were a VERY good team over the last 9 games: easily a top-10 offense, and a passable defense (top-60).

As for the players, here are their numbers:

Mark Williams: 24.6 mpg, 13.6 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 1.9 bpg, 1.2 spg, 71.2 fg%, 56.3 ft%. As mentioned, Williams first took the reins in the NC State game. He had one more minimal role appearance against UVa, and from then on he played the second most frontcourt minutes on the team. And what a finish to the season he had. Obviously, the 23 and 19 against Louisville was amazing, and his rebounding numbers were all over the map prior to that. But there is no doubt the team realigned to better utilize his skills, and he deserves a ton of credit for getting himself ready to take advantage of those skills. I'm really excited about his prospects next season... so long as the Louisville game wasn't a sufficient audition to go to the NBA. If he's back, I'd expect a pretty big year for Williams.

Matthew Hurt: 32.9 mpg, 19.3 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 60.4 fg% (68.4 2pt%), 51.0 3pt%, 75.0 ft%. Hurt was a star for us this year. He is a shooting savant, hitting long 2s, midrange 2s, and 3s and an absurd percentage. Defense is a struggle and rebounding isn't a strength, but man can he shoot. It's crazy that there is a very real chance he won't play in an NCAA tournament game. But with the emergence of Williams and the incoming Banchero, he might well decide that his NBA stock will never be higher than it is right now. I don't expect him to return, and I'm very impressed by his emergence this year.

Wendell Moore: 31.0 mpg, 9.4 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 4.0 apg, 2.6 topg, 1.8 spg, 42.1 fg% (50.0 2pt%), 28.6 3pt%, 86.7 ft%. Moore played everywhere from pseudo PG to pseudo PF, and he had some terrific games in this stretch. He's still working to figure out what he can do consistently well. He does a little of everything, but hasn't quite put it together. Hopefully a more normal summer/offseason will allow him to really work on his ballhandling and decisionmaking. I wouldn't ever expect him to be a pass-first playmaker, but if he can get stronger off the dribble he can be a real asset with his FT shooting.

DJ Steward: 31.1 mpg, 12.9 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1.7 topg, 1.0 spg, 41.3 fg% (50.0 2pt%), 32.0 3pt%, 73.7 ft%. Steward had a terrific freshman year, but finding more consistency with his 3pt shot will go a long way towards making his sophomore year a huge success. I think he's going to have a terrific year next year, especially if Griffin and Banchero are as good as advertised (and I think they will be). Looking forward to seeing him on an All-ACC team next year.

Jeremy Roach: 26.4 mpg, 7.0 ppg, 2.8 apg, 2.1 rpg, 1.7 topg, 45.1 fg% (52.4 2pt%), 40.0 3pt%, 62.5 ft%. Roach had a rough year, and his last-9 was roughly in line with that. He shot the 3 better later in the season, but never really found his rhythm. That said, his play over the last 3 games was promising, as he had 27 points, 9 assists, and just 1 turnover in that span. Hopefully a regular offseason and the sophomore jump works for him having a good sophomore year.

Jordan Goldwire: 26.9 mpg, 4.3 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 4.4 apg, 1.9 spg, 1.4 topg, 31.8 fg% (28.6 2pt%), 34.8 3pt%, 60.0 ft%. Goldwire improved dramatically over his 4 years, and was a very usable defensive specialist and caretaker at guard. He did start to find a chemistry with Williams late in the year, especially against Ga Tech. I would love for him to return next year to fill out our rotation, but if this was it for him he at least got to go out with a win.

Jaemyn Brakefield: 12.9 mpg, 3.7 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 38.9 fg% (50.0 2pt%), 21.4 3pt%, 33.3 ft%. Not a great end to the season for him. He was a mercurial player in high school, and it appears that hasn't changed in college. At times he can look quite good, at other times he looks lost. His role next year would appear the same as this: competing with Coleman for backup PF minutes and potentially getting usurped by a smallball type lineup. Hopefully he is more ready to regularly contribute next year.

Joey Baker: 10.6 mpg, 3.4 ppg, 35.0 3pt%. Baker returned to being a catch-and-shoot specialist. Next year's team may offer him more opportunity to fill that role, as we won't likely have Hurt and our other 4 defenders are thus likely to be better suited to fit him in. Still, it's probably a 10-15 mpg type role at best for him.

Henry Coleman: 6.3 mpg, 1.1 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 0.6 bpg, 41.7 fg%, 0.0 ft%. Coleman was a high-energy guy who was light on polish. Hopefully a year in the system will do him good. But as with Baker and Brakefield, he'll likely be competing for limited minutes next year unless something unexpected happens.

Patrick Tapé: didn't play enough to have a meaningful stat line. I'm thankful he came and helped as best he could. It just didn't work out for him. Maybe he takes advantage of the extra year to get to experience Cameron for real, but I doubt he would see much game action.

Thanks for the excellent write-up. One very minor point. Though Tapé obviously contributed very little on the court, I wonder how much impact he had on the development of Williams, as he provided a legitimate big for Williams to practice against, which is very valuable. Tapé isn't dramatically bigger than Coleman, but I think it still might have made a difference.

[Chicago 1995]

I’d consider it but my butt is firmly planted in a seat on the Illinois bandwagon. My wishy-washy secondary allegiance may be many things, but it is not for sale, sir!

I-L-L!

Illinois native and 1998 U of I College of Law Grad, here. I'll be joining you on the bandwagon. Andre Curbelo is my favorite non-Duke player in CBB. He's a blast to watch.

[weezie]

I am so very much hoping Williams is back next year...

And, he comes from a Duke family.

[dm9e24]

Thank you CDu. Brought some optimism after a tough news day at the end of a difficult year for Duke basketball.

I am going to go with scottdude8 that there could be an outside chance that Hurt could come back. His draft status, after a 1st round pick type year, doesn't look all that promising. As difficult to defend as he was this year, I can't imagine that he would not put up similar numbers next year with minutes hovering around 25 minutes a game with probably 10 more pounds of muscle and a summer to work on his handle to drive the basket. Especially with Mark and Banchero manning the center and power forward spots. No one can know what AJ is going to do next year after essentially missing two years of high school competition. Did not translate so well for Jalen. Anyway, this time last year, there was talk of Matthew transferring after a difficult year. He obviously loved Duke and the staff and had an outstanding sophomore year. I am going to hold out hope that he may decide to do the same next year with the same results, with maybe an even better all around game and a chance to get into the late first round to early second round. Possible better than Europe or D league with a minimal contract.

[UrinalCake]

I'm not as bullish on our presumed roster that sees Hurt, Goldwire and Tapé leaving. I see Banchero for Hurt as being a wash. It could be a net negative. Banchero looks awesome but he'll be a freshman and Hurt was in the running for ACC POY and scoring leader for much of the season. So we're adding Griffin, losing Goldwire, and everyone is a year older. That will be an improvement, but is it enough to go from being a non-tournament team that finished 10th in the conference to an elite top-5 team? That's asking a lot. Teams don't generally make jumps that big unless they bring in an entire elite recruiting class. And losing Goldwire will hurt more than I think people are realizing, given how much he does for our defense. Without another guard we are expecting Roach and Steward to not only make big leaps but play 35+ minutes with Wendell backing them up. Top-25 team, maybe top-15 would be a more reasonable expectation IMO. Having a full preseason will help, but I don't think players are going to be spending both summer sessions on campus and I don't think Cameron will be at full capacity in November. Maybe 50%.

[Chicago 1995]

Thank you CDu. Brought some optimism after a tough news day at the end of a difficult year for Duke basketball.

I am going to go with scottdude8 that there could be an outside chance that Hurt could come back. His draft status, after a 1st round pick type year, doesn't look all that promising. As difficult to defend as he was this year, I can't imagine that he would not put up similar numbers next year with minutes hovering around 25 minutes a game with probably 10 more pounds of muscle and a summer to work on his handle to drive the basket. Especially with Mark and Banchero manning the center and power forward spots. No one can know what AJ is going to do next year after essentially missing two years of high school competition. Did not translate so well for Jalen. Anyway, this time last year, there was talk of Matthew transferring after a difficult year. He obviously loved Duke and the staff and had an outstanding sophomore year. I am going to hold out hope that he may decide to do the same next year with the same results, with maybe an even better all around game and a chance to get into the late first round to early second round. Possible better than Europe or D league with a minimal contract.

I think the issue with Matt is that his draft stock at this point probably is whatever it will be. If he's a mid-second rounder now, he's going to be after next year too. He's gotten -- in terms of professional development -- whatever he's going to get out of college basketball. Question becomes how much he likes college, values a degree and how much the allure of playing in the G-League is for him.

I'm not sure that he can really play the three, either. He's a defensive liability against bigger, slower guys. Trying to guard more athletic wings? Didn't see much this year to think that would work.

[Chicago 1995]

I'm not as bullish on our presumed roster that sees Hurt, Goldwire and Tape leaving. I see Banchero for Hurt as being a wash. It could be a net negative. Banchero looks awesome but he'll be a freshman and Hurt was in the running for ACC POY and scoring leader for much of the season. So we're adding Griffin, losing Goldwire, and everyone is a year older. That will be an improvement, but is it enough to go from being a non-tournament team that finished 10th in the conference to an elite top-5 team? That's asking a lot. Teams don't generally make jumps that big unless they bring in an entire elite recruiting class. And losing Goldwire will hurt more than I think people are realizing, given how much he does for our defense. Top-25 team, maybe top-15 would be a more reasonable expectation IMO. Having a full preseason will help, but I don't think players are going to be spending both summer sessions on campus and I don't think Cameron will be at full capacity in November. Maybe 50%.

If the freshman class is only Griffin and Banchero, I very much hope to see K hitting the transfer market. We need more than just those two.

[CDu]

I'm not as bullish on our presumed roster that sees Hurt, Goldwire and Tape leaving. I see Banchero for Hurt as being a wash. It could be a net negative. Banchero looks awesome but he'll be a freshman and Hurt was in the running for ACC POY and scoring leader for much of the season. So we're adding Griffin, losing Goldwire, and everyone is a year older. That will be an improvement, but is it enough to go from being a non-tournament team that finished 10th in the conference to an elite top-5 team? That's asking a lot. Teams don't generally make jumps that big unless they bring in an entire elite recruiting class. And losing Goldwire will hurt more than I think people are realizing, given how much he does for our defense. Without another guard we are expecting Roach and Steward to not only make big leaps but play 35+ minutes with Wendell backing them up. Top-25 team, maybe top-15 would be a more reasonable expectation IMO. Having a full preseason will help, but I don't think players are going to be spending both summer sessions on campus and I don't think Cameron will be at full capacity in November. Maybe 50%.

Well, we have been playing like a top-10/15 team over the past 10 games as is once we committed to playing Williams and Johnson left the program. So I wouldn't think that trading Hurt and Goldwire for Banchero and Griffin and getting a year's development from the freshmen and Moore would be less than that. I think top-10 seems pretty safe if Williams returns, and if we add any more beyond that (and that could be Goldwire returning, adding a freshman guard like Washington, or adding a transfer to fill out the backcourt rotation) I do think we're looking at top-5 territory.

Could things still go sideways? Sure. But that would be one of our most experienced teams in recent years, and it would be building on a team that was pretty darn good down the stretch.

[Kedsy]

If the freshman class is only Griffin and Banchero, I very much hope to see K hitting the transfer market. We need more than just those two.

If our freshman class is only Griffin and Banchero (neither likely to become sophomores), I'd prefer a developmental player or two rather than a grad-transfer. Be nice to have some upperclassmen in 2024 and 2025.

[Rickshaw]

If Hurt comes back, one of Williams and Banchero is not starting.

I don't think we need Hurt to be top 5 imo.

Assuming Williams is here.

[Phredd3]

I’d consider it but my butt is firmly planted in a seat on the Illinois bandwagon. My wishy-washy secondary allegiance may be many things, but it is not for sale, sir!

But can you at least sell me some gas and a match? I've got a bandwagon to chase down...

[GGLC]

I Think Hurt, Goldwire, Tape, and maybe one transfer will depart from the team. I think Hurt is ready to go and would likely not get as many touches next year with Banchero and Griffin arriving, the emergence of Williams and the expected improvement of Steward. That is a lot of offensive fire power and only one ball.

I'm not as down as a lot of people on Roach. 2.8 assists to 2.0 turnovers per game for a freshman with an abbreviated pre-season doesn't smell that bad to me. I could easily see him doubling his assists next year and halving his turnovers with the amount of offense of firepower coming in. Especially if Williams comes back, the penetration and lob with Williams was already a hard to defend play and I feel that was developing before our eyes. His 45% from 2 and 31% from 3 IMO bode well for next year, accounting for a little bump up in percentages as he gets stronger this off-season.

I'm up for a pie bet if you think that Roach's assist to turnover ratio next year could realistically approach 5.6:1. I'd be surprised if he ever achieved that over a large sample even in high school. It's not the kind of guard he is.