Duke 77, Tech 81 Post Game Thread

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

It's a good example of recency bias and how spoiled we've been as fans.

We could rename DBR to DRB - Duke Recency Bias.

[azzefkram]

Another hard luck loss in a season of hard luck losses. Good games from Mark, Matt, Wendell and Jordan. Wendell played a great 1st half. Joey wasn't great overall but was key for Duke getting to OT. Jaemyn, Jeremy and DJ had really bad games. DJ was pretty bad on D and completely out of control on offense. Jeremy was ok on D and non existent to bad on O. Jaemyn was dreadful on D and couldn't hit the broadside of a barn on O.

Guard play seemed to be the culprit last night, along with a bit o bad luck. Another thing that did Duke in was poor defensive rebounding. Mark needs to balance going for the block versus getting himself out of position for a rebound. Mark had 3 defensive rebounds in 35 minutes. That's horrible because Matt and Jaemyn aren't good enough rebounders to pick up the slack. Wendell can be good if he's playing the 4 but he was at the 3 last night.

It looks like Duke is going to have to UConn this to get to the NCAAs. I'd be surprised if that happened, but only mildly so.

[Duke79UNLV77]

Williams played a great game and has been improving by leaps and bounds, but he either needed to be more measured in going for some blocks or a teammate needed to rotate and fill in for him sooner. GT got about 14 or so easy points off of easy rebound dunks, often where the initial defense had forced a tough shot.

I would have like to see a line more towards the basket on the last possession of regulation because a foul is the easiest way to win there, but that's not Goldwire's game, and the 2 guards better at it had played their way to the bench.

[rsvman]

"Some days are diamonds - Some days are coal." As it is with basketball teams. A lot more diamond days when you have two or three diamond players on the court at the same time. We don't have that now. Perhaps next year? Perhaps never again,

I thought the saying was 'sometimes you're the Shitzu and sometimes you're the tree.'

[CDu]

Williams played a great game and has been improving by leaps and bounds, but he either needed to be more measured in going for some blocks or a teammate needed to rotate and fill in for him sooner. GT got about 14 or so easy points off of easy rebound dunks, often where the initial defense had forced a tough shot.

I would have like to see a line more towards the basket on the last possession of regulation because a foul is the easiest way to win there, but that's not Goldwire's game, and the 2 guards better at it had played their way to the bench.

Yeah, I agree. I think folks are giving Williams a bit too much of a pass in his performance against Wright on the defensive (Wright's offensive) glass. Williams and Hurt struggled mightily in the second half in terms of their toughness/aggressiveness in going for rebounds. Yes, there was the occasional bad bounce, but that was exacerbated by not being strong enough in fighting for position to keep Wright away from the basket. Sometimes, it was Hurt because Williams was contesting a shot, sometimes it was Williams because he didn't commit to getting back into the mix after the play had moved away from him. And to be fair, that's not to be unexpected for a skinny freshman who is just starting to see extended time and facing a very experienced senior big man. But to your point, Williams has to be able to recover better and/or not sell out so hard in trying to block the shot that he can't get back into the play. He seemed to stop once he'd made his attempt at the block rather than finishing the play.

As for the last possession of regulation, I get why the ball went to Goldwire rather than Steward or Roach, given how poorly those guys played. Ideally, though, I'd have given it to Moore or Steward/Roach with the goal of getting to the rim. And then hope to have Williams as a chaser. Unfortunately, I think the team was a bit hamstrung in that Moore was the only trusted inbounder (Goldwire had looked REALLY shaky on inbounds passes throughout the second half), which more or less took Moore out of the mix. And then we get back to the aforementioned slumping Steward and Roach. I think Coach K was just gunshy of relying on the decision making of a freshman who had been struggling with decision making all night.

But I agree with you that the play really needed to be to get to the rim rather than to look for a kickout. And maybe that WAS the play, but Goldwire simply wasn't confident to take it to the rim himself and passed it to the wide open man instead. In the end, we got a wide open look from a decent 3pt shooter, so not the end of the world. But it probably wasn't the best option we could have gotten in the circumstances.

[Kedsy]

I'm glad I not the only one who saw this. As I was taking notes on the game last night, I kept writing something one of two things: "Great defense by Williams forces a bad shot by Wright", or, "Wright gets an easy bucket off a lucky bounce on an offensive rebound." Maybe it's the basketball gods paying us back for the incredible run we've has a Duke fans, but the ball just hasn't bounced our way this year, let alone last night. I will take away from last night that Mark Williams has a high-ceiling future, and anyone projecting lineups for next season that doesn't have Williams as a starter hasn't watched the last month of basketball closely.

I don't want to turn this into a next year thread, and I actually agree with you about Williams. But if he starts along with Banchero and Griffin, that only leaves two starting spots for Roach, Steward, Moore, and (hopefully) Keels. Not to mention if Baldwin decides to choose Duke. My first guess is Moore comes off the bench as 6th man (and if we get Keels then one of Roach/Steward/Keels also comes off the bench), but I could also easily see Moore starting and Williams coming in at the 16-minute mark. Either way, all the players mentioned above should get good minutes, so I'm not sure it matters too much.

GT got about 14 or so easy points off of easy rebound dunks, often where the initial defense had forced a tough shot.

According to the official box score, the actual number of points from second-chance, rebound dunks is four (i.e., two baskets), and two of those points came from the freak bounce that scottdude8 and others mentioned (which technically wasn't directly off of a rebound and was not really due to a defensive mistake of any kind). Also, Georgia Tech only had a total of 10 second-chance points and only had 12 points from all their dunks. There is no conceivable interpretation of your comment in which "14 or so easy points off easy rebound dunks" is true.

[simplyluvin]

Yeah, I agree. I think folks are giving Williams a bit too much of a pass in his performance against Wright on the defensive (Wright's offensive) glass. Williams and Hurt struggled mightily in the second half in terms of their toughness/aggressiveness in going for rebounds. Yes, there was the occasional bad bounce, but that was exacerbated by not being strong enough in fighting for position to keep Wright away from the basket. Sometimes, it was Hurt because Williams was contesting a shot, sometimes it was Williams because he didn't commit to getting back into the mix after the play had moved away from him. And to be fair, that's not to be unexpected for a skinny freshman who is just starting to see extended time and facing a very experienced senior big man. But to your point, Williams has to be able to recover better and/or not sell out so hard in trying to block the shot that he can't get back into the play. He seemed to stop once he'd made his attempt at the block rather than finishing the play.

As for the last possession of regulation, I get why the ball went to Goldwire rather than Steward or Roach, given how poorly those guys played. Ideally, though, I'd have given it to Moore or Steward/Roach with the goal of getting to the rim. And then hope to have Williams as a chaser. Unfortunately, I think the team was a bit hamstrung in that Moore was the only trusted inbounder (Goldwire had looked REALLY shaky on inbounds passes throughout the second half), which more or less took Moore out of the mix. And then we get back to the aforementioned slumping Steward and Roach. I think Coach K was just gunshy of relying on the decision making of a freshman who had been struggling with decision making all night.

But I agree with you that the play really needed to be to get to the rim rather than to look for a kickout. And maybe that WAS the play, but Goldwire simply wasn't confident to take it to the rim himself and passed it to the wide open man instead. In the end, we got a wide open look from a decent 3pt shooter, so not the end of the world. But it probably wasn't the best option we could have gotten in the circumstances.

Rebounding is about positioning, and I agree MW was sometimes too aggressive in going after a block and therefore not in a position to fight for the rebound. There were too many easy put-backs by Wright and others. Hurt needs to learn this too, and this could really cut down on his fouls. It's not about going after every shot to block it; sometimes it's about presence alone and altering shots, and then being in a position to grab the rebound. Dennis Rodman was the master at this; he was often a small ball 5 who effectively disrupted shot takers enough without compromising good DReb positioning. MW will get there.

Like Coach said in the presser, MW is going to be a force.

[FerryFor50]

I don't want to turn this into a next year thread, and I actually agree with you about Williams. But if he starts along with Banchero and Griffin, that only leaves two starting spots for Roach, Steward, Moore, and (hopefully) Keels. Not to mention if Baldwin decides to choose Duke. My first guess is Moore comes off the bench as 6th man (and if we get Keels then one of Roach/Steward/Keels also comes off the bench), but I could also easily see Moore starting and Williams coming in at the 16-minute mark. Either way, all the players mentioned above should get good minutes, so I'm not sure it matters too much.

I'd be pretty surprised if Baldwin picks Duke with that much talent on the roster and his dad coaching at Milwuakee. Maybe if one of Roach/Steward/Moore leaves early for the draft (which would also surprise me... none of them are ready).

[Kedsy]

Dennis Rodman was the master at this; he was often a small ball 5 who effectively disrupted shot takers enough without compromising good DReb positioning.

I agree that Mark Williams has been hunting blocks a bit too much the past couple games. I agree he doesn't always finish the defensive play by aggressively going for the defensive board, and I agree he could be stronger to and with the ball.

But Dennis Rodman always went for the rebound. He was not a shot disruptor; in fact he never once reached as high as 1 block per game in his NBA career. Mark Williams is an entirely different kind of player.

[Kedsy]

I'd be pretty surprised if Baldwin picks Duke with that much talent on the roster and his dad coaching at Milwuakee. Maybe if one of Roach/Steward/Moore leaves early for the draft (which would also surprise me... none of them are ready).

Guys as talented as Baldwin don't usually have to worry about competition for their playing time, and even if they should be worried, the mindset that allowed them to become the star player they are won't allow them to even consider that possibility. So I can't imagine anything Roach, Steward, or Moore do would affect Baldwin's decision. It would be the other way around. IF Baldwin comes to Duke, someone like Moore might decide to take his chances in the draft, rather than potentially become a 7th man his junior season at Duke.

[szstark]

Perhaps Goldwire maxes out his ability ... but IMO the first mistake was giving him the ball to bring up the court. For better or worse (and last night certainly better), Moore was our best option going to the goal with Williams crashing for a put back. I'm sure the team practices the under 10 second drill regularly, but that was just poorly done.

Sorry to disagree, but Moore handling the ball is never our best option. JGold did a fine job bringing the ball up court and found a wide open Brakefield for the potential winning shot. Nothing wrong with the call or the play with obvious exception of Brakefield missing the shot.

[FerryFor50]

Guys as talented as Baldwin don't usually have to worry about competition for their playing time, and even if they should be worried, the mindset that allowed them to become the star player they are won't allow them to even consider that possibility. So I can't imagine anything Roach, Steward, or Moore do would affect Baldwin's decision. It would be the other way around. IF Baldwin comes to Duke, someone like Moore might decide to take his chances in the draft, rather than potentially become a 7th man his junior season at Duke.

I've already made my thoughts known on the Moore starting scenario. I think he starts regardless of what happens, especially if he continues the improvement he showed at the end of the year. If anything, I think Roach or DJ goes to the 6th man role if Baldwin comes.

There's also the unknown of what Jalen Johnson had to say about his Duke experience; remember, Baldwin said that he'd be asking about that. If it truly was an injury issue and not some other problem, then it won't matter.

[FerryFor50]

Sorry to disagree, but Moore handling the ball is never our best option. JGold did a fine job bringing the ball up court and found a wide open Brakefield for the potential winning shot. Nothing wrong with the call or the play with obvious exception of Brakefield missing the shot.

I think Moore has greatly improved his ball handling and decision making since the start of the year, and has even started finding open shooters on drives. Last night he only had 1 turnover (though a couple of bad forced shots when he had to be "the guy" when Hurt fouled out).

Looking forward to seeing how he improves next season.

[throatybeard]

Not valuing the ball, turning it over at the top of the key on lazy passes leading to easy points, not being as fast to the loose balls, not hitting key FTs down the stretch, not crashing the boards, not converting *your* lucky opportunities (like when Goldwire blew the open layup in OT off a weird bounce offensive rebound)...

This is the most frustrating part.

[FerryFor50]

This is the most frustrating part.

Yup. People keep harping on "turnovers" but the *type* of turnover is way more important.

Throwing the ball out of bounds stinks, as do travels, offensive fouls, etc. But the absolute worst is that top of the key steal because you made a lazy pass for an easy dunk. 2 free points for the other team and a momentum boost.

[Ultrarunner]

I think Moore has greatly improved his ball handling and decision making since the start of the year, and has even started finding open shooters on drives. Last night he only had 1 turnover (though a couple of bad forced shots when he had to be "the guy" when Hurt fouled out).

Looking forward to seeing how he improves next season.

He has improved with lots of room yet to grow. When he figures out how to dump the ball off in the lane to a big, he's going to get really dangerous. Ditto as he gets stronger at the rim - and he's already our best finisher in traffic. He needs to add a floater to his repertoire. I'm enjoying his development.
His one turnover was from an unexpected and bad bullet pass at his knees. Half the fault for the TO belonged to the passer on that one but we don't score them that way.

[szstark]

Guys as talented as Baldwin don't usually have to worry about competition for their playing time, and even if they should be worried, the mindset that allowed them to become the star player they are won't allow them to even consider that possibility. So I can't imagine anything Roach, Steward, or Moore do would affect Baldwin's decision. It would be the other way around. IF Baldwin comes to Duke, someone like Moore might decide to take his chances in the draft, rather than potentially become a 7th man his junior season at Duke.

I acknowledge these guys have a different mindset than most of us, but how can you simultaneously be worried about becoming the 7th man on the Duke team and still believe there is a spot for you on an NBA roster?

[FerryFor50]

He has improved with lots of room yet to grow. When he figures out how to dump the ball off in the lane to a big, he's going to get really dangerous. Ditto as he gets stronger at the rim - and he's already our best finisher in traffic. He needs to add a floater to his repertoire. I'm enjoying his development.
His one turnover was from an unexpected and bad bullet pass at his knees. Half the fault for the TO belonged to the passer on that one but we don't score them that way.

What's interesting to me is that he drove to the rim pretty much every time and didn't attempt any FTs. That doesn't mean he didn't get hit on those shots, though...

Also, to your point about dumping it to a big, there was one play exactly like that last night. Moore drove the lane and put up a shot with Wright selling out for the block. Wright swatted it, but Mark Williams was wide open for an easy dunk if Moore had just thrown a little bounce pass.

[jv001]

I'd argue Williams is *already* a force. He went up against one of the best bigs in the ACC (a 6'9" senior who averages 18ppg, 8.3rpg and 1.7 bpg) and more than held his own on offense (20pts, 7 boards), and was also able to block 3 shots and get 3 steals. He got pushed around a bit, but overall, I was impressed.

He also is able to score in a variety of ways as a big. It's not all dunks/lobs. He gets putbacks. He catches some *tough* passes on the break and converts, he hits the mid range jumper consistently, he has some post moves (albeit limited) and he even had a nifty floater in the lane last night. He's not like *any* big I've seen at Duke on offense. Looking forward to seeing how he progresses.

I agree on Williams being a force right now. He has great hands and has caught some passes on the move that surprised me. He' also shown he can hit a jumper from the FT line(shows he may become a good FT shooter). I'm looking forward to see him only get better.

GoDuke!

[rsvman]

I do think it is interesting how much our discussions and thoughts and attitudes and feelings swing on small things.

For example, had Brakefield made the three and we had won the game, what would the narrative be? We fought hard and came back very late from a deficit and snuck out a win on the road against a well-coached, veteran, physical team. Look how much this team has matured! Bounced back from a tough loss to gut this one out, etc., etc.

One shot, folks. That's the difference. The block on Brakefield right before the half when taking a shot that could have put us up 8, followed by the three at the halftime buzzer was really the difference in the game. Such a back-breaking way to go into the half. In years past, we were the team doing stuff like that to our opponents right before the half, demoralizing them. Now we are on the other end of it. The other thing that really killed us was that period of time in the "fourth quarter" when we had four turnovers in six possessions. We needed to have more of our possessions end with us at least taking a shot!

What is clear to me is that this team can pretty much hang with almost anybody. If our guards are shooting well and Hurt doesn't foul out, they can beat anybody. At the same time, they can lose to anybody, anytime. Having said that, I wouldn't write off this team's chances of winning the ACCT. UConn won the Big East tournament one year when they had double-digit losses during the regular season. They just put it together at the right time. I don't see any team in the ACC that Duke couldn't beat. I don't think it is likely that we win it, but if we do, it won't be all that surprising. We have the capability, if we can find a way to put it together. If Steward comes out of his shooting slump we are much more difficult to beat. I hope that that happens and happens soon. Saturday evening would be a good time for that to happen, as a matter of fact.