I'll expand on this a little -- there are 3 games that will more or less decide who will be the #1 seed:
- FSU @UNC Tuesday
- Duke @UVA Wednesday
- UNC @Duke Saturday
- If Duke beats UNC (Game 3), Duke is the #1 seed because we will have beaten UNC twice, and finish with equal or better record, regardless of what happens in games 1 and 2 (and thus #2 goes to UNC)
- If (god forbid) UNC beats Duke (Game 3) and UVA beats Duke (Game 2), UNC (14-2 or 13-3) will get the #1 seed, and Duke (12-4) will be #2
- If UNC beats Duke (Game 3), and we finish with the same record (UNC loses Game 1, Duke wins Game 2), things get a bit more complicated, as they both finish 13-3. We need to figure out who the #3 (or lower) team is:
Four teams can potentially finish as high as #3 -- Clemson, VTech, Maryland, and Miami. Two more teams (so six teams) can potentially finish as high as #4 -- Wake and FSU. Duke has lost to
Miami and
Wake, while UNC has lost to
Maryland, so we only care about these three teams. In the third scenario above, Duke will be the #1 seed only if Maryland finishes higher than both Miami and Wake (regardless of which seed they actually finish at). So now we look at Maryland, Miami, and Wake:
Luckily, Maryland has the tie-breaker over both Miami and Wake. On top of that, Wake's best finish will be 8-8. Maryland's worst finish is also 8-8, at which point Maryland will be seeded higher than Wake, so we can ignore Wake as well.
So now we look at these three games:
- BC @Miami Wednesday
- Miami @FSU Saturday
- Maryland @UVA Sunday
(The below list is assuming the 3rd condition from the above list, where Duke and UNC finish tied and 1-1 head-to-head)
- If Maryland wins Game 3, Duke gets the #1 seed
- If Maryland loses Game 3, and Miami loses either Game 1 or Game 2, Duke gets the #1 seed
- If Maryland loses Game 3, and Miami wins both Games 1 and 2, UNC will get the #1 seed
That's my take on who finishes #1/#2... I don't think I want to play this game any more
P.S. Actually, it seems Maryland can only finish at #4 behind Clemson, because Clemson has the tie-breaker over Maryland, but that's irrelevant to #1 vs #2, since both Duke and UNC beat Clemson (1-0 counts the same as 2-0). VT also has the tie-breaker over Md, but can finish with fewer wins than Maryland.