PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[dudog84]

I suspect three things, all related to the chaos in New York and New Jersey at the beginning: overwhelmed hospitals, no protection for seniors in nursing homes, and greatly under-reported number of cases. The first two contribute to the number of deaths, the last to the denominator -- total number of cases.

It seems we have improved in all three areas, although we are beginning to stress the medical system again in certain areas.

Unknowables and suppositions. I'm just looking at hard numbers and trend lines. Both cases and deaths have doubled in the past month. Kids are about to go back to school in some manner. What do you see stopping the trend?

[CDu]

I suspect three things, all related to the chaos in New York and New Jersey at the beginning: overwhelmed hospitals, no protection for seniors in nursing homes, and greatly under-reported number of cases. The first two contribute to the number of deaths, the last to the denominator -- total number of cases.

It seems we have improved in all three areas, although we are beginning to stress the medical system again in certain areas.

I think there is a very real chance we exceed the daily death toll high at some point. The three most pppulous states in the country are now simultaneously seeing a spike in cases. And in some cases, they are already seeing a strain on the healthcare system. As bad as things were early on (and you are absolutely correct that cases were wildly undercounted early on), Texas/Florida/California weren’t hit much in the first wave. If things get bad in those three states, look out, simply by function of population size.

[rsvman]

I wish you well with your church opening. Everything was going smoothly with our in-church services and now we have around 15 positive tests and it looks like it all began when a family held a graduation party for their son. It looks like 10 or more people that attended the party has now tested positive and the family that held the party has 4 of those positive cases. Our church couldn't have done more than they did to adhere to the guidelines set forth by our governor. Our pastor told us that some of his pastor friends have told him that in almost every case where a member has tested positive, it came from someone bringing in the virus from outside their church. It's a case of "it can't happen to me". Lord help us.

Sorry to hear this. I hope we can avoid it. My wife has elected to not go back just yet. I would almost certainly join her in that decision if it weren't for the fact that I'm one of the very few organists. Plus I figure there is no better place to social distance that behind the organ. Nobody comes within 25 feet of it. I have already told them that I will not be taking the sacrament (communion equivalent), so they won't have to approach the organ for any reason.

[JasonEvans]

I figure there is no better place to social distance that behind the organ. Nobody comes within 25 feet of it. I have already told them that I will not be taking the sacrament (communion equivalent), so they won't have to approach the organ for any reason.

Must... resist... NSFW... joke.

[rsvman]

Must... resist... NSFW... joke.

Kinda funny, kinda sad.

Sorry but I don't have any other word for the extremely expensive and complex musical instrumemt that I have worked years and years to learn to play competently....

[devildeac]

Must... resist... NSFW... joke.

Turble, Jason, just turble.

Which reminds me of a comment a college friend made one time when he found out my wife's next younger sister was a music major at Duke and what wonderful things she could do with her organ...

But, I digress .

[OldPhiKap]

Another name for a Harmonica is a “mouth organ.”

Props to John Popper, Charlie Musselwhite, Will Scarlett and Sonny Terry.

[devildeac]

Kinda funny, kinda sad.

Sorry but I don't have any other word for the extremely expensive and complex musical instrumemt that I have worked years and years to learn to play competently...

Turble, Jason, just turble.

Which reminds me of a comment a college friend made one time when he found out my wife's next younger sister was a music major at Duke and what wonderful things she could do with her organ...

But, I digress .

I greatly admire your time, effort and devotion to your musical concentration, along with my sister-in-law's. A heartfelt "bravo" and round of applause for you both. She hasn't made music her career but has parlayed her learning and talents into being able to play *the* Duke Chapel organ/s on a number of occasions while she was there in addition to singing with many choral groups from the Duke Chapel Choir and Duke Chorale to the St. Louis Symphony Chorale, with Leonard Slatkin conducting, IIRC. My musical talent/s amounts to a lot of listening.

[YmoBeThere]

I wish you well with your church opening. Everything was going smoothly with our in-church services and now we have around 15 positive tests and it looks like it all began when a family held a graduation party for their son. It looks like 10 or more people that attended the party has now tested positive and the family that held the party has 4 of those positive cases. Our church couldn't have done more than they did to adhere to the guidelines set forth by our governor. Our pastor told us that some of his pastor friends have told him that in almost every case where a member has tested positive, it came from someone bringing in the virus from outside their church. It's a case of "it can't happen to me". Lord help us.

Sorry to hear that. Unfortunately, besides no contact at all we are still identifying the right protocols for interaction. There are so many variables to control for.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Sorry to hear that. Unfortunately, besides no contact at all we are still identifying the right protocols for interaction. There are so many variables to control for.

Unfortunately we can’t really control for selfish acts by selfish people. Infuriating.

[budwom]

Sorry to hear this. I hope we can avoid it. My wife has elected to not go back just yet. I would almost certainly join her in that decision if it weren't for the fact that I'm one of the very few organists. Plus I figure there is no better place to social distance that behind the organ. Nobody comes within 25 feet of it. I have already told them that I will not be taking the sacrament (communion equivalent), so they won't have to approach the organ for any reason.

I played Whiter Shade of Pale on a church organ once. Splendid! The tune is kind of churchy if you think about it....

[OldPhiKap]

I played Whiter Shade of Pale on a church organ once. Splendid! The tune is kind of churchy if you think about it...

[budwom]

marvelous Simpsons moment!

[rsvman]

LOL.


I have to admit that in the distant past, I once played the Mickey Mouse club theme song as part of the postlude, pretty much just to see if anybody would notice. If you play it kind of slowly and church-ish, it actually works pretty well.


Not a soul noticed, by the way.

[budwom]

McDonalds restaurants will be requiring face masks. For those who choose not to wear them, they will be respectfully asked to stand in a particular place to await their orders away from other people. They say nothing about making them wear dunce caps. Those would look great.

I guess their definition of "requiring" is different than mine.

[devildeac]

McDonalds restaurants will be requiring face masks. For those who choose not to wear them, they will be respectfully asked to stand in a particular place to await their orders away from other people. They say nothing about making them wear dunce caps. Those would look great.

I guess their definition of "requiring" is different than mine.

Being in McDonalds should be enough...

[DukieInKansas]

I played Whiter Shade of Pale on a church organ once. Splendid! The tune is kind of churchy if you think about it...

I selected the music for the beginning of our Father's memorial service. The Victors sounded great on the pipe organ. Our organist at the time was from Korea - I'm not sure she really understood what she was playing.

Another member had Take Me Out to the Ballgame played.

[MChambers]

I just read Laura Spinney's book about the 1918 influenza pandemic and was surprised to read that the US did much better than Eur0ope with masks and shutdowns. My, how we have changed, and for the worse.

[-jk]

Being in McDonalds should be enough...

Hmm... Is it better or worse than typical State Fair food?

-jk

[devildeac]

Hmm... Is it better or worse than typical State Fair food?

-jk

I'd bet worse; there are a reasonable amount of "good" foods at the NC State Fair (from my memories over a decade ago) but I usually "publicize" the worst offenders.