Brexit & British Politics

[Troublemaker]

Thanks. Excellent table. What's the source, if I may ask? (I'd like to use it in something I am preparing and want to cite appropriately.)

Page 5 of this pdf (Lord Ashcroft Polls), but it's not formatted as nicely.

[duke74]

Page 5 of this pdf (Lord Ashcroft Polls), but it's not formatted as nicely.

Thanks!

[OldPhiKap]

Farage is already backpeddaling on the promise to redirect the monies sent to the EU in order to fund the National Health budget. Also saying that UK was headed towards a "mild" recession anyway, regardless of Brexit. Sure starting off on the defensive; it seems even clearer as the days go by that these guys really didn't think they would actually win and do not have much of a real plan other than "dump Brussels."

Also some talk that Scotland could theoretically veto Brexit although most seem to think that Westminster's decision trumps.

It looks like Courbyn survived the (latest) effort to unseat him as head of the Labour Party. May not have heard the last of that though.

As John Oliver noted last night, it is sort of ironic to call it "the United Kingdom" at the moment.

[budwom]

I'm very skeptical that the remorse "faction" of Brexit represents any significant numbers.

However, a second Brexit referendum would probably go to Remain if they can GOTV of the youth vote. "Get off Tumblr and go vote, you lazy bums" should be the campaign slogan for Remain.

Front page article in the NY Times today indicates a number of Brexit leaders are now backpedaling...having done so, I don't think it's unreasonable to
say that the remorse faction is both significant and growing.

[sagegrouse]

I'm very skeptical that the remorse "faction" of Brexit represents any significant numbers.

However, a second Brexit referendum would probably go to Remain if they can GOTV of the youth vote. "Get off Tumblr and go vote, you lazy bums" should be the campaign slogan for Remain.

Sorry, Troublemaker, but I don't understand this table at all. It seems to show a result different from your message.

[SoCalDukeFan]

Many including Boris Johnson argue that the vote was about control.

However since British exports to the EU are much more important than EU exports to GB, then the EU will have the upper hand in the trade negotiations that must take place. So control remains with the EU.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/27/op...ml?ref=opinion

The sun has set on the British empire.

SoCal

[Troublemaker]

Sorry, Troublemaker, but I don't understand this table at all. It seems to show a result different from your message.

People aged 18-24 only turned out at 32%. People aged 25-34 only turned out at 55%. If the youth turned out better, Remain can win.

[Jeffrey]

- I highly recommend getting your news on this from the financial press, whether Bloomberg, CNBC, WSJ, FT, etc. I've found them to do a much, much better job of presenting facts and potential outcomes than the usual suspects, where the talking heads seem to do little more than insist the sky is falling with 100% certainty.

I highly recommend almost always getting your news from those sources. When money is on the line, viewers want the facts, not opinions. I'd prefer to always be given the facts and reach my own opinions.

[Jeffrey]

Some silver linings:

- Interest rates will likely remain low...

- The US stock market could gain considerably from this.

Strongly agree and, as you know, they go hand in hand.

[sagegrouse]

People aged 18-24 only turned out at 32%. People aged 25-34 only turned out at 55%. If the youth turned out better, Remain can win.

OK, but the term "Proportional Turnout" is misleading, at least to me, since it implies that this represents the results if votes were proportional to population. It would have been reasonable to construct a "what-if" column to show an "adjusted" vote total.

[77devil]

Many including Boris Johnson argue that the vote was about control.

However since British exports to the EU are much more important than EU exports to GB, then the EU will have the upper hand in the trade negotiations that must take place. So control remains with the EU.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/27/op...ml?ref=opinion

The sun has set on the British empire.

SoCal

A long time ago. If only Thatcher and Reagan had acted upon Churchill's idea of an alliance of English speaking people; much more formidable than NAFTA.

[snowdenscold]

It opens the door for an old Winston Churchill idea -- a formal union of English Speaking Nations.

Nations with a common language and (on the whole) common values.

A union of the United States, Great Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand -- each keeps its internal customs and forms -- they can have their Queen and Parliament, we keep our Congress and President. But internationally, the nations in the new union presents a united front on trade and defense ...

Well, the Five Eyes intelligence sharing initiative amongst the U.S, U.K., Australia, Canada and New Zealand did develop out of that post-WWII vision.

And although it's far from a formal union, there are many buildings here in the U.S. (owned by private corporations who do business with the Federal government) that you are not allowed to enter unless you hold a passport to one of the above five nations.

Great Britain belongs connected to us ... not to Europe.

Here is the new youtube link to the UK vs. England vs. Britain video that's now gone off that FB post: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNu8XDBSn10

Note he addresses your comment around the 2:00 mark

[duke74]

Sorry, Troublemaker, but I don't understand this table at all. It seems to show a result different from your message.

Not that he needs my explaining, but I think he was saying that the age groups that most supported remaining in (and would be the most adversely affected) also were least represented at the pools, in relation to the potential electorate. (32 and 54% of the potential voters in those groups) Hence, a larger turnout might have swayed the result towards staying. The leaver age groups were all in excess of 78%.

[duke74]

Goldbugs are never happy.

FT today re gold sales post Brexit. (not sure if a wall - sorry)

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4d10c60c-3...#axzz4Cfk73JXj

[OldPhiKap]

FT today re gold sales post Brexit. (not sure if a wall - sorry)

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4d10c60c-3...#axzz4Cfk73JXj

Interesting, thanks. Bloomberg article suggesting that the greenback is a better bet than gold:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...-brexit-tumult


Both of these positions seem to be in the minority. I'll stick to mining Bitcoins and polishing my original Star Wars Action Figure collection.

[Olympic Fan]

The sun has set on the British empire.

As probed today in Paris: Iceland 2, England 1

The first bitter fruits of Brexit.

[OldPhiKap]

As probed today in Paris: Iceland 2, England 1

The first bitter fruits of Brexit.

England's manager resigned today I think.

[gus]

England's manager resigned today I think.

Yeah. They let him have the dignity of a public seppuku at the presser rather than waiting another 15 minutes for the FA to fire him outright.

[The Gordog]

This. I would predict Mon-Tues. will see a 1 to 2% gain in the indexes.

Well, this is why I am not a day-trader. Maybe today we can get back Monday's losses.

[Jeffrey]

Well, this is why I am not a day-trader. Maybe today we can get back Monday's losses.

Not sure any retail investor should be a day trader. IMO, longer term results are more logical and much easier to predict than shorter term emotions.