Tar Heels off-season thread

[HoKogan]

Since this thread has gone off-topic to a discussion of realignment we need to talk about realignment in its true context.

This is NOT about all sports it is about football...

There are ~130 FBS football teams which are competing to be in the BCS which is now 12 teams (perhaps 16 after that). The motivation to join leagues is to keep the football teams relevant for the BCS. This then drives revenue because media audiences want to see the teams that are in line for the football championship. These leagues are leagues in name only because with 12 regular season games and the desire to play top teams in other leagues a team NEVER plays every team in their own league each year.

At some point I see a fragmentation of the FBS to ~50 teams who compete for the 16 spots in the BCS. The schedule each year is set to best determine who those top 16 are rather than by region or conference.

OK...I have said way too much because it is ~30 minutes until UVA plays Furman and I need to figure out how to have an extended lunch break.

We keep saying this but as its been pointed out, there are only a couple of brands left that aren't already with either the B1G or SEC, and that ND and Clemson (you perhaps could argue FSU, but that seems contestable right now). Anyone else from the remaining leagues isn't going to generate substantial revenue on football alone. You can argue UNC is a big brand, but if you remove basketball from the equation, then you have a mediocre football team that's never been a consistent top 25 team. Same with all the remaining football programs in the ACC, BXII, PacLeftover, etc. Alumni base and viewer footprint don't matter, every game is available everywhere. So what the conferences want is brand awareness to sell content and rights fees to the networks. Other than who I mentioned, there are no more football teams that are going to substantially increase the rights fees. UNC, and Duke to a degree do have value as marketable brands and content to attract casual viewers from December through March. I'm not arguing that basketball is more valuable than football, I'm arguing that the most valuable football brands save 2 are already spoken for, and a middle of the road Duke's Mayonaise bowl tier team is not moving the needle.

[budwom]

We keep saying this but as its been pointed out, there are only a couple of brands left that aren't already with either the B1G or SEC, and that ND and Clemson (you perhaps could argue FSU, but that seems contestable right now). Anyone else from the remaining leagues isn't going to generate substantial revenue on football alone. You can argue UNC is a big brand, but if you remove basketball from the equation, then you have a mediocre football team that's never been a consistent top 25 team. Same with all the remaining football programs in the ACC, BXII, PacLeftover, etc. Alumni base and viewer footprint don't matter, every game is available everywhere. So what the conferences want is brand awareness to sell content and rights fees to the networks. Other than who I mentioned, there are no more football teams that are going to substantially increase the rights fees. UNC, and Duke to a degree do have value as marketable brands and content to attract casual viewers from December through March. I'm not arguing that basketball is more valuable than football, I'm arguing that the most valuable football brands save 2 are already spoken for, and a middle of the road Duke's Mayonaise bowl tier team is not moving the needle.

Brands are important, but so is geography...this is why the Big 10 went after UCLA and USC (LA TV market) and the same is likely to be true for Oregon and Washington, perhaps Cal and Stanford (in much the same way that Merlin mattered to the Big 10)...UVA and unc could be major geographical boosts to the Big 10 as well...

[moonpie23]

Well there is still a chance that UNC leaves the ACC along with several other schools. College sports is in an interesting place.

let me tell you what leaving the ACC basketball world for a greener football world will do to your program..


signed, The University Of South Carolina...

[HoKogan]

Brands are important, but so is geography...this is why the Big 10 went after UCLA and USC (LA TV market) and the same is likely to be true for Oregon and Washington, perhaps Cal and Stanford (in much the same way that Merlin mattered to the Big 10)...UVA and unc could be major geographical boosts to the Big 10 as well...

Me personally, I think the B1G wanted UCLA and USC for their brand, same for Oregon and Washington. The B1G network is already available with all major providers and CBS will carry all the big games on broadcast TV. The B1G can get a bigger rights fee because they have 2 of the most popular college teams on the west coast, there is value in that. Its no longer about establishing a network footprint like it was 10 years ago (when they added Rutgers and UMD). B1G games are going to be on the CBS affiliate in San Jose, San Diego and Anaheim whether USC or UCLA are in there or not.

[wilson]

let me tell you what leaving the ACC basketball world for a greener football world will do to your program..


signed, The University Of South Carolina...

Your point is well taken here, but in terms of what drives the college athletics bus nowadays, South Carolina has come out ahead...their yearly conference revenues are higher in the SEC than they would be in the ACC...the 2022 SEC payout per school was about 75% higher than the ACC.
Of course, as you note, that has come at the expense of perennial also-ran status in pretty much everything athletically significant (with apologies to their stellar women's basketball program).
Is that worth it? It's an unfortunate, but legitimate question in the present-day NCAA landscape.

[arnie]

Your point is well taken here, but in terms of what drives the college athletics bus nowadays, South Carolina has come out ahead...their yearly conference revenues are higher in the SEC than they would be in the ACC...the 2022 SEC payout per school was about 75% higher than the ACC.
Of course, as you note, that has come at the expense of perennial also-ran status in pretty much everything athletically significant (with apologies to their stellar women's basketball program).
Is that worth it? It's an unfortunate, but legitimate question in the present-day NCAA landscape.

Similar to Ted Lasso show last night. Would you rather finish 20th in a 20-team league (there is not a 21st team) or 1st in the lower league due to relegation. In this case, the Cocks wanted to be worst in the best league.

[ns7]

let me tell you what leaving the ACC basketball world for a greener football world will do to your program..


signed, The University Of South Carolina...

It was definitely a dumb decision for SC to leave, and in my opinion the issue was leaving with no real plan for where to land. The school was independent for years before landing in the Metro. I believe SC actually left because of both basketball and football. Frank McGuire was consistently upset over perceived favoritism towards the NC schools. E.g., one of his best recruits, Mike Grosso, was declared ineligible by the ACC.

There is even an unsubstantiated rumor that both Clemson and SC were both going to leave together, but Clemson stayed after getting assurances from the ACC that they would change the admission standards (which they did a few years after SC's departure).

I would also argue the counter. Do you think Georgia Tech is better off in the ACC or SEC? I'm sure if you asked their leadership in private, they'd much rather be in the SEC today.

[ns7]

Of course, as you note, that has come at the expense of perennial also-ran status in pretty much everything athletically significant (with apologies to their stellar women's basketball program).
Is that worth it? It's an unfortunate, but legitimate question in the present-day NCAA landscape.

The irony of the situation is that their other teams sports have actually fared better than football and men's basketball (the reasons for the departure). They've fielded pretty good teams in baseball, wbb, and soccer (no championship but final appearances and multiple World Cup caliber players).

[lotusland]

The irony of the situation is that their other teams sports have actually fared better than football and men's basketball (the reasons for the departure). They've fielded pretty good teams in baseball, wbb, and soccer (no championship but final appearances and multiple World Cup caliber players).

It was dumb at the time but I can tell you for certain that South Carolina does not wish they were in the ACC today. It’s a football school regardless of their lack of a conference championship much less a Natty. Their fans are relatively content if they beat Clemson and finish with a winning record. They have modest expectations that are often not met.

[lotusland]

Your point is well taken here, but in terms of what drives the college athletics bus nowadays, South Carolina has come out ahead...their yearly conference revenues are higher in the SEC than they would be in the ACC...the 2022 SEC payout per school was about 75% higher than the ACC.
Of course, as you note, that has come at the expense of perennial also-ran status in pretty much everything athletically significant (with apologies to their stellar women's basketball program).
Is that worth it? It's an unfortunate, but legitimate question in the present-day NCAA landscape.

Gamecocks also won a baseball college World Series championship in 2010.

[DU94]

They lost another one to the transfer portal -- Dontrez Styles. Not a big deal other than they're losing guys who at least practiced in the system for a year.

[chrishoke]

Dontrez Styles saying bye bye.

https://twitter.com/TiptonEdits/stat...56469507842048

[UrinalCake]

Playing for Carolina is going out of Styles

[DavidBenAkiva]

Dontrez Styles is entering the transfer portal according to Joe Tipton.

He joins Tyler Nickel and Justin McKoy. With the graduation of Leaky Black, they don't really have a natural SF on the roster for next season. I guess Puff Johnson might be able to play that position if he sticks around, too. The portal taketh away but also giveth. They'll land at least one forward this offseason and probably more than that. They'll need a backup in addition to a starter.

https://twitter.com/TiptonEdits/stat...56469507842048

[bshrader]

Playing for Carolina is going out of Styles

C+ on the effort

[SavDukeGrad]

Can someone update with a running tally of transfers? I’m losing track.

So that’s Styles, Nickel, and someone else?

Thanks DBA - McKoy.

[MarkD83]

All these transfers just mean that Hubert has more scholarships for next year.

So how many of his 2024 recruits will reclassify to 2023?

[OldPhiKap]

They lost another one to the transfer portal -- Dontrez Styles. Not a big deal other than they're losing guys who at least practiced in the system for a year.

He played there both of Hubris’ years. Agree he was not a major contributor (about 6 minutes per game both years) but certainly the kind of guy you would want working with freshmen and even transfers to teach them the ropes.

[scottdude8]

All these transfers just mean that Hubert has more scholarships for next year.

So how many of his 2024 recruits will reclassify to 2023?

Well, according to 247 UNC's 2024 class consists of #3 overall player Ian Jackson (SG), #10 overall player Elliot Cadeau (PG), #37 overall player Drake Powell (SF) and #39 overall player James Brown (C). Jackson turned 18 in February, Cadeau turned 18 last September, and I'm struggling to find ages on Powell and Brown. But the ratings and ages imply that the likely reclass candidates would be Jackson and Cadeau, since history shows that more mid-tier recruits that reclass are much less likely to have an immediate impact.

What's interesting is that if both Jackson and Cadeau reclass, they'd likely be doing so to get to the NBA a year sooner (they're well within the likely OAD category). That means they may only do so if they have a starting spot. Would that portend RJ Davis moving on alongside the assumed departure of Love? Or could one of those guys decide to reclass and go elsewhere like GG Jackson did?

Regardless, it's looking more and more like UNC might be starting from scratch next year with the potential exception of Davis, with Puff Johnson and Jalen Washington perhaps the only returning bench guys that saw any significant minutes. And the incoming 2023 class is 2 4* guys, so not the type of players you'd expect to to slot in and make a huge instant impact. That means Hubert is going to have to go hard in the portal again... question is, after the results of this year and how Pete Nance was treated by the fan base, is he going to be able to get the top guys?

[OldPhiKap]

That means Hubert is going to have to go hard in the portal again... question is, after the results of this year and how Pete Nance was treated by the fan base, is he going to be able to get the top guys?

The Rams Club/NIT money will always be a strong draw, and UNC is a good platform to get media attention. I do not expect UNC to have trouble getting strong pick-ups through the portal.