We are getting crushed 5-0. Pitching change.
Another double, after wright didn’t get a clear strike 3 call. Bama is driving the ball despite it being low, and duke trails 2-0
We are getting crushed 5-0. Pitching change.
"This is the best of all possible worlds."
Dr. Pangloss - Candide
Cassidy curd in again to stem the bleeding…and immediately almost hits a batter.
Home run by Torres makes it 5-2 Alabama in B4. First HR of the year for Duke.
Another HR. 5-3 in the top of the 6th.
"This is the best of all possible worlds."
Dr. Pangloss - Candide
Curd has been phenomenal but duke is running out of outs. 5-3 deficit with three outs left
A third error - and what could’ve been considered a fourth. Our defense is a problem right now
The announcer praising duke for a sac fly…in the SEVENTH AND FINAL inning, is driving me mad. Duke couldn’t afford a sac fly! That run didn’t matter!
Down to our final out now
Duke loses 5-4. Too little too late
Sac flies are never intentional, anyway, so they aren't praiseworthy. An XBH is always better than a sac fly. It's an odd historical quirk of baseball that sac flies are traditionally considered a positive outcome. They almost never actually are, and when you hit one, it's as praiseworthy as hitting an inside straight in poker: Good for you, but stop doing that.
Buzz, buzz. Sorry, wrong answer. That's the draw to the inside straight. That's entirely why the analogy works. It's a positive outcome for one game (or one hand). It's a negative EV play. The situation is positive, but it is entirely situation dependent and it is driven by luck. In the bottom or the ninth with the score tied, they are effectively a fortunate an accident. When you're in the bottom of the last inning and down by more than one run (as we were), it's a way to lose the game (as we did). Sure, you might luck into a situation where the outcome is positive, but it's still not praiseworthy for the individual batter to make an out. It's a fortunate team situation and nothing more.
If you are saying it is never good to trade an out for advancing a runner then yu're just wrong. And yes, a hit is better, but when the intent is to hit a fly ball to advamce the runner, it is the hit that is a lucky accident, not the sacrifice fly. Now if you are talking about the particuar situation in the Duke game, that's a different issue given the score and game situation.
Except that it isn't. Hitters cannot hit sacrifice flies on purpose. They just can't. Granted, that data is from MLB, but that's because there isn't the demand for a similar analysis in softball. I think the conclusion is generalizable. Sac flies can be situationally good, but it's a negative expected value play most of the time AND it's futile to try to hit them. Hit the ball hard and let the chips fall.
Worse, with a runner on third and no outs, you're costing your team runs. In baseball, the EV for a runner on third, no outs is 1.426. With none on and one out, the EV is 0.243. Adding the run scored in, you went from an EV of 1.426 to an EV of 1.243. In other words, in this situation, the sac fly reduced our chances of winning by about 18%. Of course, if that one run is the difference between winning and losing, then yes, it's a "positive" play, but it's positive in exactly the same way that drawing to an inside straight is positive. Hit the ball hard and let the chips fall.
Duke survives the 1st despite two errors. Hope this isn’t an issue all season…