Russia & Ukraine

[budwom]

Aubrey Plaza is what’s up! How dare you diss the state that gave us this national treasure! And credit cards.

That's funny because I thought Ms. Plaza was one of the best parts (and somewhat underused) of the recent White Lotus series...maybe she'll join us for dinner in a few weeks (we do NOT have the Pineapple Suite).

[wavedukefan70s]

Well now we know where the tanks are going.

Senior defense official says Ukraine will receive 'hundreds' of tanks from US and allied forces .
From cnn

[CameronBornAndBred]

Ukraine can say "Tanks for the help".

In a major increase of U.S. support to Ukraine, President Joe Biden has signed off on sending 31 M1 Abrams tanks to the war-torn country as concerns mount over a new Russian offensive this spring.
The U.S. announcement about its tank commitment comes the same day Germany has also pledged to send Ukraine 14 of its own Leopard 2 tanks.

Now of course getting them there, and getting crews trained to operate them will take time. I've read two to three months.
Long story short, we can expect some major escalation of the war from Russia in the next two to three months.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...777c5a4742ea5b

[PackMan97]

Long story short, we can expect some major escalation of the war from Russia in the next two to three months.

LOL! I'm not really expecting much escalation from Russia. Unless they are going to start killing even more civilians.

Russia has three choices:
1) Go nuclear, at which point their ability to conduct war will be eliminated by whatever means the west has available
2) Attack NATO countries with conventional forces, at which point Russia will find out that fighting a country of 40 million people is a lot different than fighting an alliance with over 1,000,000,000 people and the largest military on the planet.
3) Run their mouth a lot but ultimately do nothing but continue to die in Ukraine.

I'm expecting them to choose option 3. Nothing else makes sense.

[CameronBornAndBred]

LOL! I'm not really expecting much escalation from Russia. Unless they are going to start killing even more civilians.

Bingo. I expect lots more troops brought in, with a focus on infrastructure further going after energy provision. And when those civilians get caught up in things, well, "oops".

[dudog84]

I'm expecting them to choose option 3. Nothing else makes sense.

Since when is making sense a requirement?

[wavedukefan70s]

Ukraine can say "Tanks for the help".


Now of course getting them there, and getting crews trained to operate them will take time. I've read two to three months.
Long story short, we can expect some major escalation of the war from Russia in the next two to three months.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...777c5a4742ea5b

We have been shipping them for a while.
I saw atleast 100 plus support vehicles
A month ago .
Probably are in Poland already if they arent training already.

[CameronBornAndBred]

We have been shipping them for a while.
I saw atleast 100 plus support vehicles
A month ago .
Probably are in Poland already if they arent training already.

Those were just armored vehicles. These are armored vehicles that can fight back with mass destruction. Different ball game.

[PackMan97]

We have been shipping them for a while.
I saw atleast 100 plus support vehicles
A month ago .
Probably are in Poland already if they arent training already.

The Bradleys should be good to go fairly soon. Ukraine has been getting training on them for a while. Between their TOW missiles and their autocannon, they can take out anything on the battlefield these days, though they aren't as armoed as a tank, so survivability will always be an issue against tanks.

What is really impressive is the systems that Sweeden is sending, their CV-90 Infantry Fighting Vehicle and the Archer Self Propelled Artillery are both considered to be the best in the world. the CV-90 in particular has a really nasty cannon on it that can fire armor piercing rounds that will take out a heavy tank as well as anti-personnel rounds that send hundreds of pellets into the ground. Nasty nasty buggers.

Once Ukraine stats to use things in an effective combined arms strategy, it's going to be really unpleasant for Russia.

[wavedukefan70s]

Those were just armored vehicles. These are armored vehicles that can fight back with mass destruction. Different ball game.

I'm talking 100 plus Abrams tanks plus support vehicles. Didn't convey that correctly. I really think it was 150 plus but I didn't count them.
I drove a couple then went back to my area.
I'm always trying to get a case or two of mre meals
Was a few miles of rail .
Some kinda new vehicles aswell I'm not familiar with could be troop carrier
Or a assault vehicles. Both are heavily
Armed.
As long as we aren't shipping helicopters I'm not worried.
Everytime we ship those something starts.

[cato]

I'm talking 100 plus Abrams tanks plus support vehicles. Didn't convey that correctly. I really think it was 150 plus but I didn't count them.
I drove a couple then went back to my area.
I'm always trying to get a case or two of mre meals
Was a few miles of rail .
Some kinda new vehicles aswell I'm not familiar with could be troop carrier
Or a assault vehicles. Both are heavily
Armed.
As long as we aren't shipping helicopters I'm not worried.
Everytime we ship those something starts.

I doubt the US will deliver any M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine in the near future. Ukraine needs to prove that they can maintain and deploy them effectively and I am guessing we are not in a rush to have Russia capture tanks on the battlefield.

The key to promising to deliver M1 Abrams tanks was breaking a deadlock with Germany over them giving the green light to countries delivering the Leopard 2 to Ukraine. If we are shipping our tanks to Europe, perhaps these are to be deployed to back fill our allies’ positions after they transfer German tanks to Ukraine.

[cato]

Once Ukraine stats to use things in an effective combined arms strategy, it's going to be really unpleasant for Russia.

From your lips to God’s ears. My concern is that Russia, which has really messed things up, has learned some lessons and will more effectively use their resources in the next year or five than they did last year.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I doubt the US will deliver any M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine in the near future. Ukraine needs to prove that they can maintain and deploy them effectively and I am guessing we are not in a rush to have Russia capture tanks on the battlefield.

The key to promising to deliver M1 Abrams tanks was breaking a deadlock with Germany over them giving the green light to countries delivering the Leopard 2 to Ukraine. If we are shipping our tanks to Europe, perhaps these are to be deployed to back fill our allies’ positions after they transfer German tanks to Ukraine.

I'm confused by your comment here, because that's exactly what we are doing. (As outlined in the article I linked and several others out today.)

I'm happy to be wrong, but the fact is that we are sending M1 Abrams and Germany is sending Leopard IIs.

[cato]

I'm confused by your comment here, because that's exactly what we are doing. (As outlined in the article I linked and several others out today.)

I'm happy to be wrong, but the fact is that we are sending M1 Abrams and Germany is sending Leopard IIs.

I have seen reporting in several places that the tanks supplied by the US to Ukraine will not come from existing stock, but will be acquired from new inventory. Representative quote from WaPa: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...brams-ukraine/

“The U.S. tanks — to be purchased from manufacturers rather than transferred from existing American military stockpiles — will not arrive for months, if not years. Administration officials have emphasized that the M1s are part of long-range planning for Ukraine’s armed forces rather than weapons that will be put to immediate use.”

My understanding from the reporting is that the German tanks are more ubiquitous and much easier to get onto the field in an effective way. So the US promised the Abrams (and apparently is beefing up its own force on the continent) to help nudge the Germans to agree to provide its own tanks. Like the US, I expect Germany to provide some tanks directly, but I think the many/most of the tanks that will be on the battlefield this spring will come from other allies like Poland, etc.

Another key quote from that WaPo article:

“The plan is to transfer the Leopards, currently spread across Europe, in time for Ukraine to defend against an anticipated Russian offensive in the spring and to launch its own counteroffensive.

In Europe, the goal is to quickly assemble two Leopard tank battalions — equivalent to at least 70 tanks. As a first step, Germany will provide a company of 14 Leopard 2 A6 tanks from its army’s stocks, the government in Berlin said in a statement. European allies will also provide tanks with German approval.”

[Section 15]

I'm confused by your comment here, because that's exactly what we are doing. (As outlined in the article I linked and several others out today.)

I'm happy to be wrong, but the fact is that we are sending M1 Abrams and Germany is sending Leopard IIs.

According to news sources (mine is the WaPo) the US agreed today (Wednesday) to send 31 M1s to Ukraine. The process of getting them deployed will take several months. I see two possibilities here, but there may well be others:

1) As suggested upthread, the current shipments are to replace Leopards in NATO stockpiles that are being sent to Ukraine where they can be deployed much more quickly than the M1s.

2) A lot has been going on behind the scenes regarding supplying Ukraine with advanced weapons that the public & media just don't know about. Not sure why that is since Russia surely knows at least the basics of any clandestine operations.

Personally, I hope for the latter, but logic would argue for the former explanation.

[CameronBornAndBred]

“The plan is to transfer the Leopards, currently spread across Europe, in time for Ukraine to defend against an anticipated Russian offensive in the spring and to launch its own counteroffensive.

In Europe, the goal is to quickly assemble two Leopard tank battalions — equivalent to at least 70 tanks. As a first step, Germany will provide a company of 14 Leopard 2 A6 tanks from its army’s stocks, the government in Berlin said in a statement. European allies will also provide tanks with German approval.”

That sounds more timely and promising.

[budwom]

From your lips to God’s ears. My concern is that Russia, which has really messed things up, has learned some lessons and will more effectively use their resources in the next year or five than they did last year.

Yeah, they still have a lot of weapons good for killing civilians at horrendous rates...Vlad will find something asymmetrical to do...I still don't see his off ramp.

[PackMan97]

Vlad will find something asymmetrical to do...I still don't see his off window.

Fixed that for you...and hopefully he won't see the window either.

[cato]

Fixed that for you...and hopefully he won't see the window either.

At the risk of repeating myself, from your lips . . . .

[PackMan97]

“The U.S. tanks — to be purchased from manufacturers rather than transferred from existing American military stockpiles — will not arrive for months, if not years. Administration officials have emphasized that the M1s are part of long-range planning for Ukraine’s armed forces rather than weapons that will be put to immediate use.”

My understanding from the reporting is that the German tanks are more ubiquitous and much easier to get onto the field in an effective way. So the US promised the Abrams (and apparently is beefing up its own force on the continent) to help nudge the Germans to agree to provide its own tanks. Like the US, I expect Germany to provide some tanks directly, but I think the many/most of the tanks that will be on the battlefield this spring will come from other allies like Poland, etc.

Yes, we are giving Ukraine two types of military assistance.

1) Stockpiles of old US weapons and vehicles which are nearing the end of their life with the US military (but not necessarily the end of life, in particular vehicles...we just tend to keep new ones and sell our used equipment). This is where much of the M-777s and anti-tank weapons came from. Either in the case of the M-777s were older models getting ready to be destroyed or mothballed, or in the case of much of the ammo, ready to be recycled or destroyed. This type of aid with the exception of a few new somewhat experimental systems (like loitering munitions, kamikaze drones, etc) don't impact our readiness at all.

2) New weapons to be built and set to Ukraine, which is where the Abrams are coming from.

These two types of assistance are completely separate and distinct from a funding standpoint.

The Abrams runs on jet fuel (as does the entire US military system, yes, even the trucks). It also uses a turbine engine which needs specialized training on it. Something like a Bradley runs on a 14.8L V8 diesel engine and like all diesels works on the same basic principles. If you work on diesel engines, you can work on a diesel engine. Now they'll all be slightly different but the training to work on a new engine isn't all that significant vs learning how to maintain a turbine engine, which is why the US is so keep on getting Ukraine the Leopard 2s, because they are all powered by a big diesel.

Additionally Ukraine is suffering from having SO MANY different weapon systems to maintain. At this point, for many of them when they break they just ship them back to Poland who sends them wherever in the EU to fix them and then they get shipped back. Clearly not a good solution for an army, but it's hard to keep supply chains going to maintain all of these different systems. Thankfully, NATO standardized (mostly) on ammo, so that's not a concern.