2023 Men's Basketball Recruiting

[kcduke75]

I expect this to be deleted within minutes, anyway.

I'll take the over

[JasonEvans]

And I’m not using anything as a hammer. I’m simply pushing against the idea that Kyle Filipowski is significantly more likely to return than any other top 5 recruit, especially when the “evidence” for his likelihood of returning is a couple of exhibition games, in which he shot poorly but didn’t necessarily play poorly.

So, I have largely refrained from entering this debate -- and I want to stress that what I am going to say has come from OTHER FOLKS WITH SOURCES, not from me. With that said...

Kedsy, I think you and others may have misunderstood what some folks are saying. The reasons for the optimism that Kyle may be a multi-year player are not just that he looked so-so in all-star games and practice video. It is worth noting that the ranks of folks who said he might come back was not all that big after the all-star games. It wasn't even that loud after the first practice videos when Kyle highlights were not as prevalent as one might have expected.

No, the chorus really started to warm up their pipes when Duke backed off Estrella and Booker and stopped looking at any more bigs in the 2023 class. Sure, there's a possibility that was because Sean Stewart has shown himself to maybe be capable of playing some 5 at the college level. It might also be because Ryan Young has looked good in practice video and he could get a second year at Duke due to Covid. Had those two reasons been the cause of us backing off the 2023 big men then I doubt it would have impacted the Kyle Filipowski talk.

But, instead, the "rumors" that began coming out of Duke (from folks who do seem to have good sources in the program) were that Kyle himself was telling the Duke staff that he was planning to stay two years. According to "insiders" Kyle didn't make a promise, but he has given the coaching staff a pretty good indication of how he is leaning at the moment. And, those insiders say it is not about Kyle's NBA stock being poor -- something which seems highly unlikely for a guy ranked as he was by the recruiting services -- but about Kyle wanting to spend time at his dream school and feeling he can work on things better at Duke than in a NBA setting... as well as Kyle not being in any big rush to move from college life to the full adult world.

So, Kedsy, when you say, "I’m simply pushing against the idea that Kyle Filipowski is significantly more likely to return than any other top 5 recruit" there are those of us who say, "well... according to what we are hearing, it sure looks like it is more likely." That is not to say that Kyle is certain to stay in school. If I had to put a percentage on it, I think it is more like a toss-up (not at all unlike the Keels situation), but I am telling you with absolute certainty that I feel stronger about Kyle sticking around for a second season than any other top 5 recruit at Duke in the past half decade or so.

And, based on the actions of the Duke coaches with regards to the class of 2023, it sure appears they too feel like there is enough of a chance that Kyle comes back that they are willing to wait to find someone to fill his shoes on the 2023-24 team.

I hope this clears things up a bit.

[dukelifer]

Lauri Markkanen? Super tall. Not overly athletic. Solid footwork. Great 3pt shot.

If he can shoot like Markkanen in college- then he will be fine. Markkanen shot over 40% from 3 and averaged close to 16 a game. I will bet he does not shoot as well, but time will tell.

[Kedsy]

But, instead, the "rumors" that began coming out of Duke (from folks who do seem to have good sources in the program) were that Kyle himself was telling the Duke staff that he was planning to stay two years. According to "insiders" Kyle didn't make a promise, but he has given the coaching staff a pretty good indication of how he is leaning at the moment. And, those insiders say it is not about Kyle's NBA stock being poor -- something which seems highly unlikely for a guy ranked as he was by the recruiting services -- but about Kyle wanting to spend time at his dream school and feeling he can work on things better at Duke than in a NBA setting... as well as Kyle not being in any big rush to move from college life to the full adult world.

So, Kedsy, when you say, "I’m simply pushing against the idea that Kyle Filipowski is significantly more likely to return than any other top 5 recruit" there are those of us who say, "well... according to what we are hearing, it sure looks like it is more likely." That is not to say that Kyle is certain to stay in school. If I had to put a percentage on it, I think it is more like a toss-up (not at all unlike the Keels situation), but I am telling you with absolute certainty that I feel stronger about Kyle sticking around for a second season than any other top 5 recruit at Duke in the past half decade or so.

And, based on the actions of the Duke coaches with regards to the class of 2023, it sure appears they too feel like there is enough of a chance that Kyle comes back that they are willing to wait to find someone to fill his shoes on the 2023-24 team.

I hope this clears things up a bit.

Thanks, Jason. That does clear things up a bit. Hopefully, those rumors are true. If they are, then I'm totally on board. When I say I was pushing against it, I meant based on basketball merit. I have no way of knowing Kyle's true intentions. As I said earlier in the thread:

Assuming Filipowski can really do all those things (he did in high school but we don't yet know at this level), he will be a first round NBA draft pick whenever he decides he wants to put his name in the draft. Thus, the only way he's a multi-year player is if (a) he shows this season that he's a complete defensive liability; or it turns out he cannot handle, drive, pass, and shoot threes against high-major college competition; or (b) he really, really wants to stay in college. If (a) is true, then he will not help Duke compete for anything nearly as much as we all hope and expect. And despite many unsupported opinions around here, I haven't heard or seen any credible evidence that (b) is true.

So if Kyle really, really wants to stay in college an extra year, that would be great.

[Jeffrey]

I’m very glad my paycheck is not based upon trying to predict what a prominent teenager will be thinking six months from now!

[flyingdutchdevil]

So, I have largely refrained from entering this debate -- and I want to stress that what I am going to say has come from OTHER FOLKS WITH SOURCES, not from me. With that said...

Kedsy, I think you and others may have misunderstood what some folks are saying. The reasons for the optimism that Kyle may be a multi-year player are not just that he looked so-so in all-star games and practice video. It is worth noting that the ranks of folks who said he might come back was not all that big after the all-star games. It wasn't even that loud after the first practice videos when Kyle highlights were not as prevalent as one might have expected.

No, the chorus really started to warm up their pipes when Duke backed off Estrella and Booker and stopped looking at any more bigs in the 2023 class. Sure, there's a possibility that was because Sean Stewart has shown himself to maybe be capable of playing some 5 at the college level. It might also be because Ryan Young has looked good in practice video and he could get a second year at Duke due to Covid. Had those two reasons been the cause of us backing off the 2023 big men then I doubt it would have impacted the Kyle Filipowski talk.

But, instead, the "rumors" that began coming out of Duke (from folks who do seem to have good sources in the program) were that Kyle himself was telling the Duke staff that he was planning to stay two years. According to "insiders" Kyle didn't make a promise, but he has given the coaching staff a pretty good indication of how he is leaning at the moment. And, those insiders say it is not about Kyle's NBA stock being poor -- something which seems highly unlikely for a guy ranked as he was by the recruiting services -- but about Kyle wanting to spend time at his dream school and feeling he can work on things better at Duke than in a NBA setting... as well as Kyle not being in any big rush to move from college life to the full adult world.

So, Kedsy, when you say, "I’m simply pushing against the idea that Kyle Filipowski is significantly more likely to return than any other top 5 recruit" there are those of us who say, "well... according to what we are hearing, it sure looks like it is more likely." That is not to say that Kyle is certain to stay in school. If I had to put a percentage on it, I think it is more like a toss-up (not at all unlike the Keels situation), but I am telling you with absolute certainty that I feel stronger about Kyle sticking around for a second season than any other top 5 recruit at Duke in the past half decade or so.

And, based on the actions of the Duke coaches with regards to the class of 2023, it sure appears they too feel like there is enough of a chance that Kyle comes back that they are willing to wait to find someone to fill his shoes on the 2023-24 team.

I hope this clears things up a bit.

I had heard everything in this post with the exception of the bolded portion. That's new information to me. Not sure how I missed that if shared on this board.

That does indeed make the situation different.

[jv001]

So, I have largely refrained from entering this debate -- and I want to stress that what I am going to say has come from OTHER FOLKS WITH SOURCES, not from me. With that said...

Kedsy, I think you and others may have misunderstood what some folks are saying. The reasons for the optimism that Kyle may be a multi-year player are not just that he looked so-so in all-star games and practice video. It is worth noting that the ranks of folks who said he might come back was not all that big after the all-star games. It wasn't even that loud after the first practice videos when Kyle highlights were not as prevalent as one might have expected.

No, the chorus really started to warm up their pipes when Duke backed off Estrella and Booker and stopped looking at any more bigs in the 2023 class. Sure, there's a possibility that was because Sean Stewart has shown himself to maybe be capable of playing some 5 at the college level. It might also be because Ryan Young has looked good in practice video and he could get a second year at Duke due to Covid. Had those two reasons been the cause of us backing off the 2023 big men then I doubt it would have impacted the Kyle Filipowski talk.

But, instead, the "rumors" that began coming out of Duke (from folks who do seem to have good sources in the program) were that Kyle himself was telling the Duke staff that he was planning to stay two years. According to "insiders" Kyle didn't make a promise, but he has given the coaching staff a pretty good indication of how he is leaning at the moment. And, those insiders say it is not about Kyle's NBA stock being poor -- something which seems highly unlikely for a guy ranked as he was by the recruiting services -- but about Kyle wanting to spend time at his dream school and feeling he can work on things better at Duke than in a NBA setting... as well as Kyle not being in any big rush to move from college life to the full adult world.

So, Kedsy, when you say, "I’m simply pushing against the idea that Kyle Filipowski is significantly more likely to return than any other top 5 recruit" there are those of us who say, "well... according to what we are hearing, it sure looks like it is more likely." That is not to say that Kyle is certain to stay in school. If I had to put a percentage on it, I think it is more like a toss-up (not at all unlike the Keels situation), but I am telling you with absolute certainty that I feel stronger about Kyle sticking around for a second season than any other top 5 recruit at Duke in the past half decade or so.

And, based on the actions of the Duke coaches with regards to the class of 2023, it sure appears they too feel like there is enough of a chance that Kyle comes back that they are willing to wait to find someone to fill his shoes on the 2023-24 team.

I hope this clears things up a bit.

Jason, can you give us names of OTHER FOLKS WITH SOURCES? I think that would help with credibility.

Thanks and GoDuke!

[MChambers]

I had heard everything in this post with the exception of the bolded portion. That's new information to me. Not sure how I missed that if shared on this board.

That does indeed make the situation different.

I don't think it was shared here. It's certainly new to me.

[budwom]

I don't think it was shared here. It's certainly new to me.

This is why listening to others (I'm not talking about you here, M) and seeking information from other sources can be more fruitful than just playing with numbers. Some is premium content from other sites which is why it is not widely shared.

Reducing the decision making of others to statistical analysis has its drawbacks. Or, as the financial world will tell you, past performance does not necessarily tell you about future results.

[flyingdutchdevil]

This is why listening to others (I'm not talking about you here, M) and seeking information from other sources can be more fruitful than just playing with numbers. Some is premium content from other sites which is why it is not widely shared.

Reducing the decision making of others to statistical analysis has its drawbacks. Or, as the financial world will tell you, past performance does not necessarily tell you about future results.

The issue is no one is separating opinion from insider information. And I'm not going to "read between the lines". What Jason shared is very clear: there is insider information out there where Kyle told the coaching staff he plans on staying for two years.

That is very different from, "I think Kyle will stay for at least two years because of poor All-Star games, a lack of strength, and NIL".

[budwom]

The issue is no one is separating opinion from insider information. And I'm not going to "read between the lines". What Jason shared is very clear: there is insider information out there where Kyle told the coaching staff he plans on staying for two years.

That is very different from, "I think Kyle will stay for at least two years because of poor All-Star games, a lack of strength, and NIL".

I agree, though I will note that I (for at least one) did not make the assertions in the last sentence. Not sure how many others did...

[Indoor66]

evidently, especially when, if one looks closely enough, there is other information to be considered. Then again, maybe John Calvin was right all along.

Well, he knew he was right, it was preordained..

[johnb]

The issue is no one is separating opinion from insider information. And I'm not going to "read between the lines". What Jason shared is very clear: there is insider information out there where Kyle told the coaching staff he plans on staying for two years.

That is very different from, "I think Kyle will stay for at least two years because of poor All-Star games, a lack of strength, and NIL".

Two opinions about opinions.

The ranking services are being asked to rank the best high school players, not rank players based on their pro potential. When asked who are likely to be the best college players next year, names that come up are Timme, Tshiebwe, Dickinson, Jackson-Davis, and Bacot. All are college returnees and currently ranked higher than plenty of guys who went pro last year.

As for Filipowski, one piece of insider info came from Filipowski, himself, on the DBR podcast. While this conversation occurred before Flip made the top 5, he told Sam, Donald, and Jason that he intended to stay more than a year. For what it’s worth, I don’t know many people who were ready for living an NBA life when they were 19, and perhaps some 18 yr olds know themselves well enough to know that they would probably benefit from the “extra” year of college.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Two opinions about opinions.

The ranking services are being asked to rank the best high school players, not rank players based on their pro potential. When asked who are likely to be the best college players next year, names that come up are Timme, Tshiebwe, Dickinson, Jackson-Davis, and Bacot. All are college returnees and currently ranked higher than plenty of guys who went pro last year.

As for Filipowski, one piece of insider info came from Filipowski, himself, on the DBR podcast. While this conversation occurred before Flip made the top 5, he told Sam, Donald, and Jason that he intended to stay more than a year. For what it’s worth, I don’t know many people who were ready for living an NBA life when they were 19, and perhaps some 18 yr olds know themselves well enough to know that they would probably benefit from the “extra” year of college.

Here are the HS rankings of the players you referenced:

Bacot: #23
Jackson-Davis: #26
Tshebwe: #28
Dickerson: #37
Timme: #42

I'm not sure what the point you're trying to make is, but if it's "rankings to do not reference NBA potential but rather college impact", then this isn't the list of players I'd use.

There is a reason none of those players are in the top 20; the vast majority in the top 20 have already gone pro.

If the point you're making is "experience is really important when coupled with 4/5 star talent", then I'll absolutely buy that.

[JasonEvans]

This is why listening to others (I'm not talking about you here, M) and seeking information from other sources can be more fruitful than just playing with numbers. Some is premium content from other sites which is why it is not widely shared.

I want to be clear that I do not subscribe to the premium websites and I did not violate any premium confidentiality by posting what I wrote. This talk of Kyle coming back began to filter out late in the summer, some folks heard about it from premium sites, some folks (like me) heard about it elsewhere. For a variety of reasons, many have been reluctant to say it straight out, largely because they felt they might be violating some confidentiality. I went ahead and posted it because I have now heard from enough different places so as to consider it no longer "exclusive" to anyone. Frankly, many of us on this board have been dancing around the story for a couple months and it has become unproductive to continue to do so.

Also, to be clear, my understanding is that no one has promised anything and there is still a possibility that Kyle will decide he wants to move on to the NBA. But, at the moment, he is at least leaning toward being at Duke for a second year.

[scottdude8]

I want to be clear that I do not subscribe to the premium websites and I did not violate any premium confidentiality by posting what I wrote. This talk of Kyle coming back began to filter out late in the summer, some folks heard about it from premium sites, some folks (like me) heard about it elsewhere. For a variety of reasons, many have been reluctant to say it straight out, largely because they felt they might be violating some confidentiality. I went ahead and posted it because I have now heard from enough different places so as to consider it no longer "exclusive" to anyone. Frankly, many of us on this board have been dancing around the story for a couple months and it has become unproductive to continue to do so.

Also, to be clear, my understanding is that no one has promised anything and there is still a possibility that Kyle will decide he wants to move on to the NBA. But, at the moment, he is at least leaning toward being at Duke for a second year.

This is, to me, the biggest win-win situation we've had with a top recruit in quite some time. If Kyle tears it up and is a guaranteed Top 10 pick, that likely means we've had a very fun ride this season, and we'll be more than ready to celebrate the beginning of his NBA career. If he's in more of a borderline situation, we have legitimate reason to believe that he'll return, as opposed to our own projections onto the players' thought processes (which I think we were all guilty of with Keels last year). There's no reason to be stuck in the purgatory of hoping he plays well, but just not well enough, to get into that first round range. We can just enjoy his 2022-23 season and know that, in all likelihood, one of two good outcomes for Duke will come to pass: either he'll kick enough butt to ride off into the sunset, or there's a good chance he'll be back for 2023-24.

I am content.

[budwom]

I want to be clear that I do not subscribe to the premium websites and I did not violate any premium confidentiality by posting what I wrote. This talk of Kyle coming back began to filter out late in the summer, some folks heard about it from premium sites, some folks (like me) heard about it elsewhere. For a variety of reasons, many have been reluctant to say it straight out, largely because they felt they might be violating some confidentiality. I went ahead and posted it because I have now heard from enough different places so as to consider it no longer "exclusive" to anyone. Frankly, many of us on this board have been dancing around the story for a couple months and it has become unproductive to continue to do so.

Also, to be clear, my understanding is that no one has promised anything and there is still a possibility that Kyle will decide he wants to move on to the NBA. But, at the moment, he is at least leaning toward being at Duke for a second year.

Perfectly fair, Jason. But it is worth pointing out that the site mods have been known to come down on folks who post "rumors" or do not provide links to known sources, so I suspect quite a few here have not been sure how to approach this.

[jv001]

Perfectly fair, Jason. But it is worth pointing out that the site mods have been known to come down on folks who post "rumors" or do not provide links to known sources, so I suspect quite a few here have not been sure how to approach this.

Bingo!

[flyingdutchdevil]

Perfectly fair, Jason. But it is worth pointing out that the site mods have been known to come down on folks who post "rumors" or do not provide links to known sources, so I suspect quite a few here have not been sure how to approach this.

Given the '23 class looks to be near final, this thread has gone from "Kyle isn't an OAD!" to "rankings are stupid!" to "rumor-mongering vs insider-information is a thin-red line", all in the span of 24 hours.

[JasonEvans]

Perfectly fair, Jason. But it is worth pointing out that the site mods have been known to come down on folks who post "rumors" or do not provide links to known sources, so I suspect quite a few here have not been sure how to approach this.

Yeah, it is a tough line to define. I always advocate for folks to communicate with the mods. If someone wrote to me and/or other mods and explained the circumstance behind something that might be considered a "rumor" we could help them craft a way of talking about it that worked within the rules.