2022 MBB Transfer Portal Thread

[-jk]

I'm no expert on NIL but it is hard to imagine that Illinois presents greater NIL opportunities than Carolina.

Carolina has a bigger and more rabid fan base. U of Illinois is in downstate Illinois and, in my opinion, does not get much attention in Chicago or, for that matter, St. Louis which isn't much further away.

I have not lived in Illinois for a long time so maybe things have changed but I don't think Illinois is generally a great college basketball state. More people are interested in the Bulls than Illinois, DePaul, Loyola or the other colleges.

Don't get me wrong, I'm delighted that he didn't go to Carolina. I'd be surprised though if an NIL deal was the reason.

Despite the nomenclature, NIL isn't really about eyeballs. It's about wealthy, passionate fans who'll pony up. And Illinois has a larger alumni base to draw from (being about 1.5x bigger).

-jk

[UrinalCake]

I like Mosley, he’s a better defender than Green though definitely not as good on offense.

[Natty_B]

I'm not sure who proclaimed themselves as "lords of the board". But as for Goodman and Rowe, I think Rich says it pretty well...



Green knows all he needs to know about Iowa State at this point. Why would he be holding out still if his choice was Iowa State? Seems like the most logical explanation is the one folks here have been suggesting: that he's waiting on Keels' decision.

Could he end up at Iowa State and Keels stay in the draft? Sure. But he made an official visit to Duke about a week ago, said it went great, and said he'd make his decision around the end of the month (which coincides with the draft exit deadline). I'm no insider, but it sure seems like he's waiting on something. And since he's limited his choices to Duke and Iowa State, and Duke has a clear uncertainty at his position pending Keels' decision, the most logical explanation for why he hasn't committed to Iowa State to be with his dad is because he's waiting to see what Keels does.

The timing is weird and who knows what insiders know but they’re all pretty convinced it’s Iowa st.

[camion]

Despite the nomenclature, NIL isn't really about eyeballs. It's about wealthy, passionate fans who'll pony up. And Illinois has a larger alumni base to draw from (being about 1.5x bigger).

-jk

There is NIL-Regular - Make money from selling/advertising you name, image, likeness multiple times.

And

There is NIL-Direct - much more efficient. Sign your name just one time and get money.

[DevilFan84]

I like Mosley, he’s a better defender than Green though definitely not as good on offense.

Interesting considering that Mosley is better by any metric offensively he shot 54%, 43% and 91% and averaged more pts, rebs, assts and stls while also shooting better.

[CDu]

The timing is weird and who knows what insiders know but they’re all pretty convinced it’s Iowa st.

Well, I wouldn't say they're "all pretty convinced" it will be Iowa State. Rowe has only a 6 on his confidence meter after switching from being previously a 6 about Green coming to Duke. So that's more of a lean than convinced, and I suspect it has to do with Rowe's read on Keels. Goodman is the only one convinced. Aside from those two guys, it's 50/50 among the two other people who have said anything.

I think the most likely situation is that Green is waiting on Keels' decision. If Keels stays in the draft, I'd guess (not certain, but I suspect) Green comes to Duke. If Keels returns, Green will go to Iowa State.

[-jk]

There is NIL-Regular - Make money from selling/advertising you name, image, likeness multiple times.

And

There is NIL-Direct - much more efficient. Sign your name just one time and get money.

Pretty sure all the big deals are the latter.

-jk

[HayYou]

Despite the nomenclature, NIL isn't really about eyeballs. It's about wealthy, passionate fans who'll pony up. And Illinois has a larger alumni base to draw from (being about 1.5x bigger).

-jk

And NIL isn't the be all end all. Barring a very few top tier players, and this guy absolutely wasn't one of those, we are talking about the difference of a maybe 50-100k. If it is that much.

But playing time, shots available, potential role are very important. Meyer might not be an NBA player. But he needs to showcase himself in the best possible light to set himself up for whatever future professional role he can have. Be that the NBA or overseas. That uncertainty at UNC impacts this.

Plus, there is just enjoyment. If he like the Illini better, the possible NIL isn't going to swing the difference.

[HayYou]

Mayer would have started over any of the guys UNC has at PF (basically, the incoming freshman Washington and the undersized Puff Johnson). I am quite sure he didn't go to Illinois out of fear that he wouldn't start at UNC.



I know you've been pushing this angle for a while, but it doesn't seem to be holding any water. As evidence, AJ Green seems pretty clearly to be waiting on Keels' decision. He's down to two schools (Duke and Iowa State), and has said his decision will come "around the end of the month", implying heavily that his decision will be linked to draft decisions. Why could that be? Hmm...

And you've created a scenario (the "transfer prospect waits too long and gets left out in the cold and has to go to Vermont") that doesn't exist. Mainly because a lot of guys don't make their decision until June anyway. Take a look at the portal at the moment: several of the top names are still undecided (Green, Mosley, Smith, Nance, Hunter, Allen, Minott, Brooks, etc.). Mayer just committed yesterday. Garcia committed to UNC last year in June. The draft deadline doesn't prevent guys from finding a good landing spot. Some guys make their decisions earlier, but there is always room for an elite transfer on a P5 school come June.

And as I said, it appears we've narrowed in on our two candidates: Keels returning, or Green transferring to Duke. And Green appears to be waiting for Keels' decision.

Some people here THINK he's waiting on Keels. There is no evidence one way or the other.

For all we know, Green is using the specter of Duke to gin up more NIL money, but has no intention of signing with Duke. As in, he's going to his dad's school come hades or high water, but he is keeping the possibility of Duke alive to max out his NIL money at his preferred destination. If they don't come up with more money, so be it, and he goes there anyway.

And that is why he might be waiting, rather than not needing more info about ISU or waiting on Keels.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Some people here THINK he's waiting on Keels. There is no evidence one way or the other.

For all we know, Green is using the specter of Duke to gin up more NIL money, but has no intention of signing with Duke. As in, he's going to his dad's school come hades or high water, but he is keeping the possibility of Duke alive to max out his NIL money at his preferred destination. If they don't come up with more money, so be it, and he goes there anyway.

And that is why he might be waiting, rather than not needing more info about ISU or waiting on Keels.

I don't agree with many of your posts, but this is actually a fair take. Duke might well be used for leverage like this. If so, he would be best served to decide BEFORE Keels makes his choice.

[Natty_B]

Add Marks to the list of people who think Green seemingly going to Iowa St is about family:

https://mobile.twitter.com/BrendanRM...44782394605595

Think we need to prepare for no Green or Keels.

And sadly they’re “pretty convinced” it’s just on the dark web.

[rocketeli]

It's funny how the DBR boards seem to fixate on a topic...for a time, and lately it seems to be transfers--given the 1300 odd posts on the topic. Gotta have them! Can't succeed without them! Who's coming..for sure...no whoops they went somewhere else...let's convince ourselves that an mid-major bench warmer will make a difference!
Guess what. We'd better get over it because right now Duke is not going to be a major transfer destination.
Why?
Look at the top ten reasons players transfer (not necessarily completely in this order, except for the top five)
1. want more playing time
2. want more playing time
3. want more playing time
4. want more playing time
5. want more playing time
(these top five probably about 85% plus of transfers)
6. playing at a place below their talent level and want to move up
7. personal or philosophical disagreement with current coaches
8. homesick/want to be closer to family/girlfriend/etc.
9 discipline or academic issues
10. have a year or so of eligibility left and think it would be a great experience to spend it at a top tier program even if it means little or no playing time

The are very few players who are good enough to get more playing time or a bigger role at Duke, which cuts Duke off from most of the market. We don't want people with academic, personality or discipline issues and luckily we have the option not to take them. There are some of the number 10 around, but they are only limited contributors.

Really, we are only a good landing spot for the unicorn who is either really wanting to be in North Carolina, but not at Carolina or State, someone who turned out to be better than expected and wants to move up, or maybe someone who has a reasonable concern about coaching fit.

You know, I'm okay with this. The transfer market is a flea market of other people's used goods. Maybe you get a bargain, but mostly its just junk. Better to buy new--i.e. high school and overseas recruits.

[weezie]

^^^ Preach.

[Rickshaw]

It's funny how the DBR boards seem to fixate on a topic...for a time, and lately it seems to be transfers--given the 1300 odd posts on the topic. Gotta have them! Can't succeed without them! Who's coming..for sure...no whoops they went somewhere else...let's convince ourselves that an mid-major bench warmer will make a difference!
Guess what. We'd better get over it because right now Duke is not going to be a major transfer destination.
Why?
Look at the top ten reasons players transfer (not necessarily completely in this order, except for the top five)
1. want more playing time
2. want more playing time
3. want more playing time
4. want more playing time
5. want more playing time
(these top five probably about 85% plus of transfers)
6. playing at a place below their talent level and want to move up
7. personal or philosophical disagreement with current coaches
8. homesick/want to be closer to family/girlfriend/etc.
9 discipline or academic issues
10. have a year or so of eligibility left and think it would be a great experience to spend it at a top tier program even if it means little or no playing time

The are very few players who are good enough to get more playing time or a bigger role at Duke, which cuts Duke off from most of the market. We don't want people with academic, personality or discipline issues and luckily we have the option not to take them. There are some of the number 10 around, but they are only limited contributors.

Really, we are only a good landing spot for the unicorn who is either really wanting to be in North Carolina, but not at Carolina or State, someone who turned out to be better than expected and wants to move up, or maybe someone who has a reasonable concern about coaching fit.

You know, I'm okay with this. The transfer market is a flea market of other people's used goods. Maybe you get a bargain, but mostly its just junk. Better to buy new--i.e. high school and overseas recruits.

Well said.

[budwom]

sometimes you fall down in the outhouse and come up with a gold watch.

[Rich]

It's funny how the DBR boards seem to fixate on a topic...for a time, and lately it seems to be transfers--given the 1300 odd posts on the topic. Gotta have them! Can't succeed without them! Who's coming..for sure...no whoops they went somewhere else...let's convince ourselves that an mid-major bench warmer will make a difference!
Guess what. We'd better get over it because right now Duke is not going to be a major transfer destination.
Why?
Look at the top ten reasons players transfer (not necessarily completely in this order, except for the top five)
1. want more playing time
2. want more playing time
3. want more playing time
4. want more playing time
5. want more playing time
(these top five probably about 85% plus of transfers)
6. playing at a place below their talent level and want to move up
7. personal or philosophical disagreement with current coaches
8. homesick/want to be closer to family/girlfriend/etc.
9 discipline or academic issues
10. have a year or so of eligibility left and think it would be a great experience to spend it at a top tier program even if it means little or no playing time

The are very few players who are good enough to get more playing time or a bigger role at Duke, which cuts Duke off from most of the market. We don't want people with academic, personality or discipline issues and luckily we have the option not to take them. There are some of the number 10 around, but they are only limited contributors.

Really, we are only a good landing spot for the unicorn who is either really wanting to be in North Carolina, but not at Carolina or State, someone who turned out to be better than expected and wants to move up, or maybe someone who has a reasonable concern about coaching fit.

You know, I'm okay with this. The transfer market is a flea market of other people's used goods. Maybe you get a bargain, but mostly its just junk. Better to buy new--i.e. high school and overseas recruits.

This is a good post, but with regards to the bolded statement I believe that thinking is outdated. With NIL, free transfers, and the explosion of the transfer market, there are definitely good opportunities to round out a roster with what a team needs. There are many more not-so-hidden gems to be found in the transfer market than even just 2 years ago, and those gems have college experience that the highschoolers and overseas recruits do not. Alondes Williams and Brady Manek are just two ACC examples off the top of my head, but there are many, many more across college basketball.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

It's funny how the DBR boards seem to fixate on a topic...for a time, and lately it seems to be transfers--given the 1300 odd posts on the topic. Gotta have them! Can't succeed without them! Who's coming..for sure...no whoops they went somewhere else...let's convince ourselves that an mid-major bench warmer will make a difference!
Guess what. We'd better get over it because right now Duke is not going to be a major transfer destination.
Why?
Look at the top ten reasons players transfer (not necessarily completely in this order, except for the top five)
1. want more playing time
2. want more playing time
3. want more playing time
4. want more playing time
5. want more playing time
(these top five probably about 85% plus of transfers)
6. playing at a place below their talent level and want to move up
7. personal or philosophical disagreement with current coaches
8. homesick/want to be closer to family/girlfriend/etc.
9 discipline or academic issues
10. have a year or so of eligibility left and think it would be a great experience to spend it at a top tier program even if it means little or no playing time

The are very few players who are good enough to get more playing time or a bigger role at Duke, which cuts Duke off from most of the market. We don't want people with academic, personality or discipline issues and luckily we have the option not to take them. There are some of the number 10 around, but they are only limited contributors.

Really, we are only a good landing spot for the unicorn who is either really wanting to be in North Carolina, but not at Carolina or State, someone who turned out to be better than expected and wants to move up, or maybe someone who has a reasonable concern about coaching fit.

You know, I'm okay with this. The transfer market is a flea market of other people's used goods. Maybe you get a bargain, but mostly its just junk. Better to buy new--i.e. high school and overseas recruits.

Seems #8 is a good opportunity loophole. Can we offer scholarships to the romantic interests of excellent, underused players from hundreds of miles away?

(Kidding)
(Mostly)

Yes, the off-season here is an opportunity to pick the scabs and open wounds for several months, waiting for news of actual import.

We have a stellar recruiting class by any measure, and have elected for gloom and doom because we may not get a kid who averaged 18 points in the MVC for Northern Iowa.

[lotusland]

I’m not sure how it relates to Duke basketball but, in SEC football, NIL buys a top notch bench.

[duke74]

Seems #8 is a good opportunity loophole. Can we offer scholarships to the romantic interests of excellent, underused players from hundreds of miles away?

(Kidding)
(Mostly)

Yes, the off-season here is an opportunity to pick the scabs and open wounds for several months, waiting for news of actual import.

We have a stellar recruiting class by any measure, and have elected for gloom and doom because we may not get a kid who averaged 18 points in the MVC for Northern Iowa.

Wasn’t that Louisville under Pitino?

[SkyBrickey]

It's funny how the DBR boards seem to fixate on a topic...for a time, and lately it seems to be transfers--given the 1300 odd posts on the topic. Gotta have them! Can't succeed without them! Who's coming..for sure...no whoops they went somewhere else...let's convince ourselves that an mid-major bench warmer will make a difference!
Guess what. We'd better get over it because right now Duke is not going to be a major transfer destination.
Why?
Look at the top ten reasons players transfer (not necessarily completely in this order, except for the top five)
1. want more playing time
2. want more playing time
3. want more playing time
4. want more playing time
5. want more playing time
(these top five probably about 85% plus of transfers)
6. playing at a place below their talent level and want to move up
7. personal or philosophical disagreement with current coaches
8. homesick/want to be closer to family/girlfriend/etc.
9 discipline or academic issues
10. have a year or so of eligibility left and think it would be a great experience to spend it at a top tier program even if it means little or no playing time

The are very few players who are good enough to get more playing time or a bigger role at Duke, which cuts Duke off from most of the market. We don't want people with academic, personality or discipline issues and luckily we have the option not to take them. There are some of the number 10 around, but they are only limited contributors.

Really, we are only a good landing spot for the unicorn who is either really wanting to be in North Carolina, but not at Carolina or State, someone who turned out to be better than expected and wants to move up, or maybe someone who has a reasonable concern about coaching fit.

You know, I'm okay with this. The transfer market is a flea market of other people's used goods. Maybe you get a bargain, but mostly its just junk. Better to buy new--i.e. high school and overseas recruits.

When we have a hole in the roster - essentially an openn starting position- like we do today, then we can target the #6 kids, like an AJ Green. “Moving up” means playing against and with NBA level talent every day in practice, competing against P5 level competition, and getting the national exposure that Duke offers.

We won’t always have a big role open on our roster, but when we do, I expect our coaches will be excellent at filling it through the portal. Put me in the camp that fully expects us to have Keels or Green…