2022 NBA Draft

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Yeah, when you're at the fringe of the 1st/2nd round, these measurables seem to have a big effect on risers and fallers. I'm nervous that, with these measurables, Trevor could be in for a disappointing draft night were he to stay.

That said, these numbers don't quantify actual basketball skills, and at times this year Trevor showed a very unique skillset. His body is unique for a guard, so he's going to have to show on the floor that he can translate that into production, both defensively and offensively. He showed flashes of it this year, but inconsistently. An NBA GM is going to have to go out on a limb to draft him in the first round based off of a combination of that inconsistency and these measurables. But if he comes back and develops into the star we all think he can be, specifically upping his shooting %, there's reason to think come next year the tape trumps combine numbers.

More and more, I'm hoping Trevor comes back not only for our sakes, but for his as well. That said, we never know what he's hearing directly from scouts/GMs behind the scenes. It sounds like he's going into the process with a clear head, so I hope that yields an outcome he's happy with.

I mean, first time I saw Keels, I was astonished by his shoulders. For an 18 year old kid, he was built. He clearly isn't afraid of hard work.

Fact is, if he CAN develop a reliable long range shot, per his reputation, he could be a really tough cover. But I don't think he's going to get that PT to do so in the NBA and a team isn't going to want to invest that time to get him there.

I expect him to stay in the draft. I hope he returns and really wows everyone next year.

It would be really interesting to be a fly on the wall to learn what the NBA folks are telling him.

[CDu]

Yeah, when you're at the fringe of the 1st/2nd round, these measurables seem to have a big effect on risers and fallers. I'm nervous that, with these measurables, Trevor could be in for a disappointing draft night were he to stay.

That said, these numbers don't quantify actual basketball skills, and at times this year Trevor showed a very unique skillset. His body is unique for a guard, so he's going to have to show on the floor that he can translate that into production, both defensively and offensively. He showed flashes of it this year, but inconsistently. An NBA GM is going to have to go out on a limb to draft him in the first round based off of a combination of that inconsistency and these measurables. But if he comes back and develops into the star we all think he can be, specifically upping his shooting %, there's reason to think come next year the tape trumps combine numbers.

More and more, I'm hoping Trevor comes back not only for our sakes, but for his as well. That said, we never know what he's hearing directly from scouts/GMs behind the scenes. It sounds like he's going into the process with a clear head, so I hope that yields an outcome he's happy with.

The counterargument would be that those measurables aren't likely to change much by coming back. He's not going to get taller or longer, nor is he likely to see his vertical improve a lot. So he'd really have to improve his on-court performance next year to change his draft stock in a positive way. Right now, he's like the high school pitcher that threw 95 once in front of the scouts (his Kentucky game), and they hope they can tease the rest out with time. If he comes back and doesn't become a stud, he's suddenly an older player without the measurables and without the star turn.

Of course, if he does come back and takes that star turn, then scouts may be more willing to overlook the measurables and get him up to the 12-20 range. I don't think he has much hope of getting to the top-10 in the draft barring some sort of miraculous change in his athleticism. But he could solidify a mid/late 1st round pick with a strong sophomore year. Is that worth it? Maybe, maybe not. I guess it depends on whether he thinks he can be a late 1st or early 2nd this year, or if there is more risk of being a mid/late 2nd this year. If the former, he's probably best off staying in the draft. If the latter, the decision gets more complicated and maybe a return is best.

[-jk]

I’m curious which of these measurables can be improved by a year dedicated to getting into great shape. I didn’t immediately find google info on this. It may not be easy for some guys to drop a lot of body fat or significantly improve their vertical. Maybe easier than lengthening arms, but there is still a genetic component.

There may also be a core/genetic element in regards to character, which is a strong Keels attribute and which will also be there next year where ever he is.

I’m still cautiously optimistic we’ll see him back in a Duke uniform, and that the NBA exposure will best serve to motivate him into becoming a monster athlete, with measurables improved as much as they can be. In some way, Keels may be working through a covid thing (relative isolation during some formative years), a great athlete thing (most guys he’d have played with growing up just weren’t as good), and a Duke thing (5 stars with good years often go pro after 1 year).

Returning would in some ways be a sign of confidence that he can develop like Mark Williams (or Grayson Allen) and become an NBA starter with a year of daily, focused effort.

Mark Williams mentioned work on his lateral movement last summer being very helpful this season. JJ famously reworked his body over the summer after his sophomore year.

-jk

[JasonEvans]

For comparison

Marcus Smart
Lane Agility- 10.62
Shuttle Run-2.96
3/4 Court Sprint- 3.26
Standing Vertical Leap-33
Max Vertical Leap-36

Keels
Lane Agility-11.33
Shuttle Run-3.32
3/4 Court Sprint-3.27
Standing Vertical Leap-24.5
Max Vertical Leap-31

Couldn't Find Lou Dort but he's also a lot more explosive. So im not sure who Keels really compares too if he's not a knock down shooter and atm he isn't.

Not an ideal comp but... these are DerMar Derozan's numbers when he came out in 2009. Not exactly an athletic freak, was he?
Lane Agility- 11.88
3/4 Court Sprint- 3.31
Standing Vertical Leap-29.5
Max Vertical Leap-38.0

I was originally looking at 2009 to see Harden's numbers, but he was a bit more athletic than I had expected:
Lane Agility- 11.1
3/4 Court Sprint- 3.13
Standing Vertical Leap-31.5
Max Vertical Leap-37.0

[scottdude8]

The counterargument would be that those measurables aren't likely to change much by coming back. He's not going to get taller or longer, nor is he likely to see his vertical improve a lot. So he'd really have to improve his on-court performance next year to change his draft stock in a positive way. Right now, he's like the high school pitcher that threw 95 once in front of the scouts (his Kentucky game), and they hope they can tease the rest out with time. If he comes back and doesn't become a stud, he's suddenly an older player without the measurables and without the star turn.

Of course, if he does come back and takes that star turn, then scouts may be more willing to overlook the measurables and get him up to the 12-20 range. I don't think he has much hope of getting to the top-10 in the draft barring some sort of miraculous change in his athleticism. But he could solidify a mid/late 1st round pick with a strong sophomore year. Is that worth it? Maybe, maybe not. I guess it depends on whether he thinks he can be a late 1st or early 2nd this year, or if there is more risk of being a mid/late 2nd this year. If the former, he's probably best off staying in the draft. If the latter, the decision gets more complicated and maybe a return is best.

Agree with your premise, although that wasn't necessarily my argument. I don't think he's going to drastically change his measurables by returning (although I imagine they could improve a bit, especially the quickness stuff), but he could have a dominant, star-caliber season that makes those numbers much less important.

FWIW, we also keep forgetting how young Trevor is... he won't turn 19 until August. So even with another year he won't be "an older player" per se... he's more like Wendell on that count.

We also forget that Trevor came in with a reputation of being a knock-down three point shooter, although that didn't come to fruition (as oftentimes seems to happen with freshmen). We know how valuable a commodity shooting is in the NBA. If Trevor can shoot closer to 40% than 30% from deep, and combine that with a consistent year of stellar defense, he becomes a guy with a late-lottery floor as a "unique" prospect, regardless of the athleticism measurables, in my view.

Long story short, it seems like every year we hear about someone falling down draft boards because of these combine measurements (happens in football too). I really hope Trevor is getting sound advice, because it's looking like he could be a candidate to be that guy with these measurables. I really, really hope I'm wrong if he does choose to stay in the draft.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Agree with your premise, although that wasn't necessarily my argument. I don't think he's going to drastically change his measurables by returning (although I imagine they could improve a bit, especially the quickness stuff), but he could have a dominant, star-caliber season that makes those numbers much less important.

FWIW, we also keep forgetting how young Trevor is... he won't turn 19 until August. So even with another year he won't be "an older player" per se... he's more like Wendell on that count.

We also forget that Trevor came in with a reputation of being a knock-down three point shooter, although that didn't come to fruition (as oftentimes seems to happen with freshmen). We know how valuable a commodity shooting is in the NBA. If Trevor can shoot closer to 40% than 30% from deep, and combine that with a consistent year of stellar defense, he becomes a guy with a late-lottery floor as a "unique" prospect, regardless of the athleticism measurables, in my view.

Long story short, it seems like every year we hear about someone falling down draft boards because of these combine measurements (happens in football too). I really hope Trevor is getting sound advice, because it's looking like he could be a candidate to be that guy with these measurables. I really, really hope I'm wrong if he does choose to stay in the draft.

I mean, this is the Luke Kennard scenario. There are some differences (Kennard is one of the best shooters ever to come through Duke vs Trevor actually plays solid defense), but Kennard/Trevor aren't exactly speed/strength/agility gurus (Kennard did have good body fat).

The key is Trevor needs to be a very good shooter next year. That's really the only way he gets drafted in that 12-20. He isn't an elite athlete, and those who aren't elite need to do something elite.

So I agree with you Scott. Hope Trevor comes back. Hope he turns into a really good/elite shooter. And I hope he eats a little less

[cbolden1]

Not an ideal comp but... these are DerMar Derozan's numbers when he came out in 2009. Not exactly an athletic freak, was he?
Lane Agility- 11.88
3/4 Court Sprint- 3.31
Standing Vertical Leap-29.5
Max Vertical Leap-38.0

I was originally looking at 2009 to see Harden's numbers, but he was a bit more athletic than I had expected:
Lane Agility- 11.1
3/4 Court Sprint- 3.13
Standing Vertical Leap-31.5
Max Vertical Leap-37.0

No but Demar was Taller than keels was a better prospect coming out of high school and also a better prospect out of college.

Its not bad comp but Demar is one of one like a jimmy butler is and even those it took a lot of work to be where they are now

[CDu]

Not an ideal comp but... these are DerMar Derozan's numbers when he came out in 2009. Not exactly an athletic freak, was he?
Lane Agility- 11.88
3/4 Court Sprint- 3.31
Standing Vertical Leap-29.5
Max Vertical Leap-38.0

A 38 inch vertical is pretty good though, about half a foot better than Keels' nubmers. And DeRozan has a notable height advantage over Keels. I wouldn't present these numbers as supporting Keels.

I was originally looking at 2009 to see Harden's numbers, but he was a bit more athletic than I had expected:
Lane Agility- 11.1
3/4 Court Sprint- 3.13
Standing Vertical Leap-31.5
Max Vertical Leap-37.0

Yes, Harden doesn't look athletic, but he was a way better athlete than people realize.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Yes, Harden doesn't look athletic, but he was a way better athlete than people realize.

Harden uses his big body well, like Trevor. I think they have pretty similar body types, and the strength/agility stats prove that.

The difference is Harden was a really good shooter in college as the focal point for ASU. 38% 3pt shooting, 51% 2pt shooting. That's what made him a lottery pick.

Trevor can overcome these "deficiencies" with much better shooting next year.

[cbolden1]

Harden uses his big body well, like Trevor. I think they have pretty similar body types, and the strength/agility stats prove that.

The difference is Harden was a really good shooter in college as the focal point for ASU. 38% 3pt shooting, 51% 2pt shooting. That's what made him a lottery pick.

Trevor can overcome these "deficiencies" with much better shooting next year.

https://rocketswire.usatoday.com/202...ation-ability/

I don't know about this with Keels because he hasn't been tested but harden coming out of college had some of the best stop/start and accel/decell ever recorded, Luka is another one. That is a form of athleticism, if keels is that level of elite in those levels it could work but he still has to shoot and become a better playmaker. If he leaves I just can't help but seeing him in the G League next year unless a bad team pick him up early second

[flyingdutchdevil]

https://rocketswire.usatoday.com/202...ation-ability/

I don't know about this with Keels because he hasn't been tested but harden coming out of college had some of the best stop/start and accel/decell ever recorded, Luka is another one. That is a form of athleticism, if keels is that level of elite in those levels it could work but he still has to shoot and become a better playmaker. If he leaves I just can't help but seeing him in the G League next year unless a bad team pick him up early second

Very fair. To me, that shooting (more broadly scoring) is what Trevor needs to vastly improve upon. He's not going 12-20 without that.

The elite playmaking / signature moves are probably too much to ask of Trevor for next year.

[cbolden1]

Very fair. To me, that shooting (more broadly scoring) is what Trevor needs to vastly improve upon. He's not going 12-20 without that.

The elite playmaking / signature moves are probably too much to ask of Trevor for next year.

Oh I wasn't talking about the skill set, just the level of Athleticism between harden and Keels.

Heres footage from Keels pro day tho.

https://twitter.com/DraftExpress/sta...Lu-npfrq_kQm1w

[JasonEvans]

Oh I wasn't talking about the skill set, just the level of Athleticism between harden and Keels.

Heres footage from Keels pro day tho.

https://twitter.com/DraftExpress/sta...Lu-npfrq_kQm1w

The rim protection and help D in that video was pretty poor

Tell you what I saw... I saw a tape that did not show Trevor hitting more than 2 shots in a row at any time. Trust me, if he had hit 3 or 5 or 7 3s in a row in one of those drills, it would have been on the tape. Instead, they edited after almost every shot. Now, I get that the stuff off the dribble is always going to be edited, but there were a fair number of "shoot a bunch of threes in a row" segments where Trevor clearly did not go on any impressive hot streaks.

None of us have any idea what he is going to do. I am getting the distinct impression that Trevor is looking for a reason to stay in the draft. I suspect that even though he said he is looking for a first round promise, he will likely stay in if he hears he is certain to be picked in the first 5-7 picks of the second round (which would result in a multi-year, multi-million dollar guaranteed contract). But, I really have to wonder if NBA teams are sure about him at this point. I just don't know. I don't feel like I am seeing a lot of stuff that would sell me on picking him if I was a GM. I mean, when you look at some of the athletic numbers put up by wings like Terquavion Smith, Christian Braun, Wendell Moore, Max Christie, Kennedy Chandler, and Dyson Daniels (all guys forecast to go "late first or early second") it really makes you wonder where Trevor fits.

[Gooch]

Interesting article in the Athletic with Eric Musselmann's ranking of what look to be the top 3 picks in the draft. Musselmann has a unique perspective having coached in the NBA and having seen all three of Banchero, Holmgren, and Smith with Arkansas this year (btw Duke was the only one of the three teams to beat Arkansas this past year).

https://theathletic.com/3323222/2022...o-chet-jabari/

Musselman likes Paolo for the #1 pick. Here's the money quote:

“Somebody might want to draft Chet because they have more of a long-term plan. Somebody might need perimeter shooting and a guy who can space the floor, and Jabari would be that guy. But just playing against the three, Paolo was the hardest for us to deal with.”

Go Paolo!

[dukelifer]

The rim protection and help D in that video was pretty poor

Tell you what I saw... I saw a tape that did not show Trevor hitting more than 2 shots in a row at any time. Trust me, if he had hit 3 or 5 or 7 3s in a row in one of those drills, it would have been on the tape. Instead, they edited after almost every shot. Now, I get that the stuff off the dribble is always going to be edited, but there were a fair number of "shoot a bunch of threes in a row" segments where Trevor clearly did not go on any impressive hot streaks.

None of us have any idea what he is going to do. I am getting the distinct impression that Trevor is looking for a reason to stay in the draft. I suspect that even though he said he is looking for a first round promise, he will likely stay in if he hears he is certain to be picked in the first 5-7 picks of the second round (which would result in a multi-year, multi-million dollar guaranteed contract). But, I really have to wonder if NBA teams are sure about him at this point. I just don't know. I don't feel like I am seeing a lot of stuff that would sell me on picking him if I was a GM. I mean, when you look at some of the athletic numbers put up by wings like Terquavion Smith, Christian Braun, Wendell Moore, Max Christie, Kennedy Chandler, and Dyson Daniels (all guys forecast to go "late first or early second") it really makes you wonder where Trevor fits.

If I would have to guess, both Trevor and Wendell are second round picks and both will be spending a lot of time developing over the next couple of years. There is nothing bad about that- but they don't come into the league with any special skill set or freakish size/athleticism. They will need to outwork the competition and become excellent shooters off the bench.

[budwom]

I fear that Trevor will be gone regardless of the feedback...

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I fear that Trevor will be gone regardless of the feedback...

I know historically it has seemed that people in a player's "camp" are bullish on a player's chances to be drafted, and that the combine and other discussions can be sobering. I'm hoping that things have evolved to a point where players at Duke can get a more nuanced and balanced appraisal in-house, but I don't know that for sure.

I can see that Duke as a program benefits long term from players being drafted highly, and that a player declaring and being undrafted or drafted lower would be a detriment - beyond just "Duke will be better with Keels back in 2023."

I guess it would be incredibly difficult for an 18 year old kid to navigate all this noise. I would love to see Keels back, but more importantly I hope he makes a wise choice.

And no, I don't know what that wise choice would be at this juncture.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I know historically it has seemed that people in a player's "camp" are bullish on a player's chances to be drafted, and that the combine and other discussions can be sobering. I'm hoping that things have evolved to a point where players at Duke can get a more nuanced and balanced appraisal in-house, but I don't know that for sure.

I can see that Duke as a program benefits long term from players being drafted highly, and that a player declaring and being undrafted or drafted lower would be a detriment - beyond just "Duke will be better with Keels back in 2023."

I guess it would be incredibly difficult for an 18 year old kid to navigate all this noise. I would love to see Keels back, but more importantly I hope he makes a wise choice.

And no, I don't know what that wise choice would be at this juncture.

NIL! NIL! NIL! NIL!

It's obviously changed the transfer market and I suspect it will change declaring/staying in the draft.

Keels would have to assess probability of getting drafted in the late first round versus guarantee of Duke NIL dollars.

[WillJ]

On TK's athleticism....I count one dunk in this Duke highlight reel

[budwom]

I know historically it has seemed that people in a player's "camp" are bullish on a player's chances to be drafted, and that the combine and other discussions can be sobering. I'm hoping that things have evolved to a point where players at Duke can get a more nuanced and balanced appraisal in-house, but I don't know that for sure.

I can see that Duke as a program benefits long term from players being drafted highly, and that a player declaring and being undrafted or drafted lower would be a detriment - beyond just "Duke will be better with Keels back in 2023."

I guess it would be incredibly difficult for an 18 year old kid to navigate all this noise. I would love to see Keels back, but more importantly I hope he makes a wise choice.

And no, I don't know what that wise choice would be at this juncture.

Yes, I also hope he makes a wise and fruitful choice...I just fear that the threat of Will Avery Syndrome is too much for a young man to fight off...watching your friends and peers head off towards NBA riches can be persuasive.