MBB: Duke 76 Wake 64 Post-game Thread

[Bluedog]

I bet this was covered in the in-game thread or chat…but so many WF students in the stands wore their masks below their chins! Do they not have mask rules at Wake?

I noticed this as well. Duke is basically the only place I have seen where students consistently wear masks and it is being enforced by ushers and the like. So, I'd say that Duke unfortunately is anomalous. Wake even having the "requirement" of wearing a mask probably puts it in the minority of the games I've watched on TV at least...

[gumbomoop]

Wasn't it nice to see Roach substitute in and make a decisive play, too? No drama, just play. I really like him.

Agree with this shout out for Roach, who made 3 nice plays over a few minutes in second half. The 3, a drive-stop-floater in the lane, and a baseline drive, switch ball to left hand for sweet soft pass to Wendell for bucket.

[uh_no]

Agree with this shout out for Roach, who made 3 nice plays over a few minutes in second half. The 3, a drive-stop-floater in the lane, and a baseline drive, switch ball to left hand for sweet soft pass to Wendell for bucket.

yeah i feel bad for him a bit. he didn't do anything WRONG per se to lose his starting spot, but griffin has demanded his place on the floor.

[luvdahops]

yeah i feel bad for him a bit. he didn't do anything WRONG per se to lose his starting spot, but griffin has demanded his place on the floor.

I think this was also, as CDu has noted, the perfect opportunity for us to experiment with a bigger lineup with Griffin at the 3. He's definitely not there yet, but if AJ can defend wings competently, particularly the quick and bouncy ones, it will make us that much more versatile lineup-wise.

[FellowTraveler]

Guys, this was only the third game this season that Mark Williams has had more than three fouls. You seem to be implying that he's some sort of foul machine, but he's very rarely been in foul trouble.

He's only been in foul trouble in 3 games this year: Gonzaga, OSU, and Wake.

I wouldn't say I'm extremely concerned about Williams getting in foul trouble, but it doesn't make sense to dismiss such concern based on the few games in which he has accumulated 4 fouls. I should certainly hope he wouldn't commit 4 fouls in his 12 minutes played against VA Tech (he committed 2; a bad rate) or his 14 minutes against Elon (again, he committed 2) or his 18 minutes against Kentucky (he committed 3; again, a bad rate) or his 6 minutes against Campbell.

The large number of games in which Williams has played a fairly small number of minutes means that his opportunities to commit 4 fouls have been limited. The better way to assess whether he is foul-prone is to look at foul rate, not numbers of games in which he has ended up with 4 fouls. (Particularly since there is a prominent school of thought that Williams' minutes have been limited due to the nature of the early season opposition, and he'll see more minutes and be more central as Duke plays more and more opponents for whom protecting the paint is important.)

And Williams' overall foul rate isn't great: 4.3 per 40 minutes, a bit worse than last year's 3.9. Not great, but not very alarming, either. But his 6.7 fouls/40 minutes in 5 games against Tier A+B opponents per KenPom -- that is cause for concern. And more so because John is so foul prone, and Banchero, though not particularly foul prone is a freshman, and is essential to the offense. We saw in the Ohio State game how quickly foul trouble can become debilitating for this team.

That's almost always going to be the case though: better teams are more likely to cause a big man to commit fouls.

Is it?

Last year, Williams' foul rate was actually lower against Tier A/B teams (3.5) than it was for the season as a whole (3.9), though his mid-season emergence makes such comparisons tough. But looking back at recent seasons, I don't see a Duke big with a spike in foul rate against A/B opponents that's comparable to what we're seeing with Williams this year. Banchero hasn't had a spike like that so far; nor did Hurt, Carey, Zion, Bolden (any of his seasons), DeLaurier (any of his seasons), Bagley, Carter, Jefferson (any of his seasons) ... that's as far back as I went.

It seems intuitively true that bigs -- particularly young bigs -- would have a significantly higher foul rate against quality opponents than against the also-rans. But over the dozen or so big-men seasons I checked, almost all of which were freshman/sophomore seasons, there isn't a single one with a disparity like Williams' this year.

It's only five Tier A/B games so far, so I'm not too alarmed. But I also don't think we should be dismissing concerns entirely: Williams' foul rate this year against quality opponents isn't good, and isn't typical.

[UrinalCake]

The thing about Mark's fouls is that so many of them are avoidable, as others have said. In terms of straight up defending his man one on one I don't think he fouls that much. He tends to not fight for position and then try to just outjump his man for the board, which is fine against an undersized opponent but against equally sized bigs he picks up those over the back calls. But he continues to improve so I'm not overly concerned about it.

[hustleplays]

I think that we are not excellent at feeding the post. But I don't know whether this is true. It's obviously not an easy thing to do.

I would appreciate hearing from those who know more about the game than I do. How good are we at getting the ball to our bigs in the post?

thanks!

[Kedsy]

And Williams' overall foul rate isn't great: 4.3 per 40 minutes, a bit worse than last year's 3.9.

I think Mark Williams's 4.3 per 40 foul rate is pretty typical for young centers who start at Duke:

Vernon Carey as a Frosh: 4.4
Marques Bolden as a Jr: 4.4
Wendell Carter as a Frosh: 4.2
Mason Plumlee as a Soph: 4.0
Amile Jefferson as a Soph: 4.7
Kyle Singler as a Frosh: 4.3
Shelden Williams as a Soph: 5.0
Carlos Boozer as a Soph: 4.4 (and 4.3 as a Jr)
Elton Brand as a Frosh: 4.3

(Also Brian Zoubek as a Sr: 7.4; though as a starter in 2010, his fouls per 40 were down to 6.0)

Some of these guys fouled less as they got older (MP2; Amile; Shelden; Elton as a Soph), some guys didn't start until they were upperclassmen (e.g., Zoubek; MP3), and Jahlil Okafor (2.8 per 40) didn't foul but also didn't play much defense at all.

So if by "isn't great" you meant "not spectacular" then I guess I agree, but if you meant "below average" I disagree. I think Mark is right in the range one would expect. That said, I don't know what to make of the increased rate against better teams, except to say a five game sample isn't much to go on.

I think that we are not excellent at feeding the post. But I don't know whether this is true. It's obviously not an easy thing to do.

I would appreciate hearing from those who know more about the game than I do. How good are we at getting the ball to our bigs in the post?

thanks!

I agree with you. I think our guards look at other options first before the post and thus by the time they think about an entry pass the moment when the post up is open has passed. Several times a game you can see Mark Williams posting up hard and he's wide open but the ballhandlers don't even look at him. Sometimes they don't look while he's open but then try the pass later and it either doesn't go through or if it does Mark is no longer in the best position for an easy score.

[rsvman]

I wouldn't say I'm extremely concerned about Williams getting in foul trouble, but it doesn't make sense to dismiss such concern based on the few games in which he has accumulated 4 fouls. I should certainly hope he wouldn't commit 4 fouls in his 12 minutes played against VA Tech (he committed 2; a bad rate) or his 14 minutes against Elon (again, he committed 2) or his 18 minutes against Kentucky (he committed 3; again, a bad rate) or his 6 minutes against Campbell.

The large number of games in which Williams has played a fairly small number of minutes means that his opportunities to commit 4 fouls have been limited. The better way to assess whether he is foul-prone is to look at foul rate, not numbers of games in which he has ended up with 4 fouls. (Particularly since there is a prominent school of thought that Williams' minutes have been limited due to the nature of the early season opposition, and he'll see more minutes and be more central as Duke plays more and more opponents for whom protecting the paint is important.)

And Williams' overall foul rate isn't great: 4.3 per 40 minutes, a bit worse than last year's 3.9. Not great, but not very alarming, either. But his 6.7 fouls/40 minutes in 5 games against Tier A+B opponents per KenPom -- that is cause for concern. And more so because John is so foul prone, and Banchero, though not particularly foul prone is a freshman, and is essential to the offense. We saw in the Ohio State game how quickly foul trouble can become debilitating for this team.



Is it?

Last year, Williams' foul rate was actually lower against Tier A/B teams (3.5) than it was for the season as a whole (3.9), though his mid-season emergence makes such comparisons tough. But looking back at recent seasons, I don't see a Duke big with a spike in foul rate against A/B opponents that's comparable to what we're seeing with Williams this year. Banchero hasn't had a spike like that so far; nor did Hurt, Carey, Zion, Bolden (any of his seasons), DeLaurier (any of his seasons), Bagley, Carter, Jefferson (any of his seasons) ... that's as far back as I went.

It seems intuitively true that bigs -- particularly young bigs -- would have a significantly higher foul rate against quality opponents than against the also-rans. But over the dozen or so big-men seasons I checked, almost all of which were freshman/sophomore seasons, there isn't a single one with a disparity like Williams' this year.

It's only five Tier A/B games so far, so I'm not too alarmed. But I also don't think we should be dismissing concerns entirely: Williams' foul rate this year against quality opponents isn't good, and isn't typical.

Kedsy, is that you?

[FellowTraveler]

And Williams' overall foul rate isn't great: 4.3 per 40 minutes, a bit worse than last year's 3.9. Not great, but not very alarming, either.

So if by "isn't great" you meant "not spectacular" then I guess I agree, but if you meant "below average" I disagree.

I meant it isn’t great, nor is it very alarming. I guess maybe that wasn’t clear.

[wilko]

The thing about Mark's fouls is that so many of them are avoidable, as others have said. In terms of straight up defending his man one on one I don't think he fouls that much. He tends to not fight for position and then try to just outjump his man for the board, which is fine against an undersized opponent but against equally sized bigs he picks up those over the back calls. But he continues to improve so I'm not overly concerned about it.

Maybe someone on the staff should challenge him and make it a goal for him to get 2 offensive fouls in the 1st half or he sits the 2nd half..

Not reachy, not moving your feet, being late to the play type fouls...I mean playing thru people like the Hulk type offensive fouls... metaphorically knocking dudes 3 rows into the stands or picking teeth out of his elbow type toughness.

That's what I want to see. He's physically reminiscent of a young David Robinson... with Casey Sanders' hands in traffic..

[roywhite]

Is Jon Scheyer now 2-0 as our Head Coach?

Or do we put the wins on Coach K's record?

[wilko]

I think that we are not excellent at feeding the post. But I don't know whether this is true. It's obviously not an easy thing to do.
I would appreciate hearing from those who know more about the game than I do. How good are we at getting the ball to our bigs in the post? thanks!

I've noticed the same thing.
AJ certainly adds the sizzle to the steak, doesn't he?

Good things happen when he's around the ball.
I think it would be an interesting experiment to see if AJ can handle some situational sets as PG to feed the post with successful entry passes to set the bigs up. AJ is pretty valuable all over the court, so I'm not sure he should be PG 100% of the time... but when you gotta have a score possession and need a bucket in the worst way...

I'd rather see the team work a Post design set and fail, than chuck a desperation heave and miss (yet again). It would certainly take some pressure off Moore to create and allow him the chance to be a threat/finisher.

[Tooold]

Is Jon Scheyer now 2-0 as our Head Coach?

Or do we put the wins on Coach K's record?

Someone answered this last year (I forget the correct answer). But I hope they go on K’s record, because he needs them for his grand total.

[CDu]

Is Jon Scheyer now 2-0 as our Head Coach?

Or do we put the wins on Coach K's record?

They go to Coach K.

[Phredd3]

I agree with you. I think our guards look at other options first before the post and thus by the time they think about an entry pass the moment when the post up is open has passed. Several times a game you can see Mark Williams posting up hard and he's wide open but the ballhandlers don't even look at him. Sometimes they don't look while he's open but then try the pass later and it either doesn't go through or if it does Mark is no longer in the best position for an easy score.

I agree that we have a hard time feeding the post, but I disagree about why. It seems to me that when the team decides to feed the post, they completely stop looking for other options. They persist in trying to force the post, even when the play isn't really there. That leads to a lot of passes that don't find the destination for one reason or another, and if the post does get the ball, they then seem reluctant to give it up if the opportunity has gone, leading to tough shots against a prepared defense. Yes, sometimes they miss the good post-up, but all teams do that. The reverse problem of hyper-focusing on the post is far more likely to lead to problems, IMO.

[-jk]

We have a ton of talent spread around, but I haven’t yet seen “elite passing” in our bag of tricks this year. And pinning defenders while creating a passing lane isn’t trivial, either.

Ah, the power of “yet” - we’re not a finished product!

-jk

[bluenorth]

I think that we are not excellent at feeding the post. But I don't know whether this is true. It's obviously not an easy thing to do.

I would appreciate hearing from those who know more about the game than I do. How good are we at getting the ball to our bigs in the post?

thanks!

My opinion would be that we're about average in feeding the post. I often see what I'd consider a good opportunity to make an entry pass, but the man with the ball hesitates and the chance is gone. Mind you, there's a lot that goes into the play. Is the defender playing behind the post, in which case a feed should be easy. Or is the defender fronting the post - it makes a lob pass tempting but where is the weak side help? I guess the point I'm trying to make is that there are a lot of factors going into the passer's decision, and that choice has to be made instantly.

[CDu]

We have a ton of talent spread around, but I haven’t yet seen “elite passing” in our bag of tricks this year. And pinning defenders while creating a passing lane isn’t trivial, either.

Ah, the power of “yet” - we’re not a finished product!

-jk

Yeah, it's interesting. As you said, we don't necessarily have elite passers. But we do have several capable and willing ones. Our assist rate is in the upper tier (#76 nationally, which is probably top-25 among Power-6 schools). But most of that passing is either off the dribble or passes on the perimeter. We don't seem to be adept at post entry passes.

And you note a key facet of post entry in your second sentence. It's both the job of the passer and the poster to make the pass successful. And our bigs aren't the best at sealing a defender. Williams isn't the most physical guy in establishing post position, and Banchero is still learning what it takes to make himself a big target (he's much more comfortable facing up at this stage). If your bigs aren't great at establishing and maintaining position, then the window for a post entry is much smaller, and it's easier to miss the opportunity.

I wonder if some of it is an issue that, because it isn't a huge part of our game, and because we have a finite amount of practice time, that it is just not something we devote much practice time to.

[Dr. Maturin]

Count me among those not too worried about Mark Williams' fouling. As a team, we are 2nd in the entire country in defensive free throw rate - overall, we are amazing at playing without fouling. Mark is likely to play between 20-25 minutes in most games, and foul trouble hasn't prevented him from getting those minutes in any game this year (a possible exception to that was the Ohio State game, where I seem to remember him sitting for foul trouble, but he still played 22 minutes). With AJ's development we're playing more small ball anyway.

While we're on the subject, I think foul trouble is an overrated concern in basketball. I cringe when a coach removes a star player with two fouls in the first half. By taking the player out, you are guaranteeing the exact result you are trying to avoid- that is, that a player will play fewer minutes because of foul trouble. I'm not saying coaches should never been careful in that regard, but the "auto bench for the rest of the first half" move so many coaches default to is just not good strategy for me.